Download - Helmut Fischer, Volker Kirchesch, Katrin Quiel, Andreas Schöl Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Helmut Fischer, Volker Kirchesch, Katrin Quiel, Andreas Schöl
Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde
Influence of global change on the water quality of the Elbe/Labe
Einfluss des globalen Wandels auf die Gewässergüte der Elbe
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Contents
1. Introduction
Position in the model network
Factors influencing water quality
The water quality model QSim
2. Results
Longitudinal development of water quality
Model results (validation)
Temporal development of water quality
3. Conclusions and outlook
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Einleitung:
Gliederung
Introduction - position of the project in the model network
Water management
(WBALMO)
Water use
Energy / Mining
(KASIM)
Households /business
(HAUSHALT WASSER)
Industry
(INDUSTRIE WASSER)
Agriculture / Irrigation
Wetlands
(MODAM)
Development of water technologies
Inflow
Evaporation
Irrigation
Wetlands
Water suppliers
Industry
Mining
Power plants
Nutrient load
(MONERIS)
Point source: Industry
Regionalization of global change
Future climate
(STAR)
Development of agricultural sector
(RAUMIS)
Economics and demography
(REGE)
Minimal flow for conservation
Transport on inland waterways
Point source: Sewage plant
Diffuse source: Sealed surfaces
Diffuse source: Erosion
Diffuse source: Atmospheric Deposition
Diffuse source: Drainage
Diffuse source: Surface denudation
Diffuse source: Groundwater
Diffuse source / Sink: Wetlands
Land use and regional water balance
Hydrological cycle and crop yields
(SWIM)
Land use
(LAND USE SCANNER)
Development of energy sector
(KASIM)
Transport on inland waterways
X1
X13
X15
X4
X3
X2
Y2
Y1
Y5
Y3
Y4
Y7
Z8
Y8
Z1
Y6
Z6
Z7
Z9
Z5
Z1
Z2
Z3
Z4
Water quality
(QSim)
Nutrient concentr.Phytoplankton
Oxygen
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Water use
Agriculture / Irrigation
Development of water technologies
Nutrient load
(MONERIS)
Point source: dir. ind. discharges
Regionalization of global change
Future climate
(STAR)
Development of agricultural sector
(WATSIM-RAUMIS)
Economics and demography
(REGE)
Point discharges: WWTP
Diffuse Source: imp. surfaces
Diffuse Source: Erosion
Diffuse Source: Atm. Deposition
Diffuse Source: Drainage
Diffuse Source: Surface runoff
Diffuse Source: Groundwater
Sinks: Surface waters/Wetlands
Land use and regional water balance
Land use
(LAND USE SCANNER)
Y3
Y8
X1
X15
X2
Y2
Y1
Y5
Y7
Y6
Introduction - position of the project in the model network
Households / business
(HAUSHALT WASSER)
Industry
(INDUSTRIE WASSER)
Wetlands
(MODAM)
Hydrological cycle and crop yields
(SWIM)
Water quality
(QSim)
Nutrient concentr.Phytoplankton
Oxygen
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Introduction
Climate (temperature, light regime, precipitation) model “STAR“, PIK
Discharge (water depth, retention times) model “SWIM“, PIK
Nutrients (inputs, concentrations) model “MONERIS“, IGB
nutrient budget Algal growth and biomass
Factors influencing algal biomass and nutrient budget and
Models providing input data for QSim
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Introduction – the model QSim
O2
heterotrophic bacteria, nitrifying bacteria
phytoplankton diatoms, green and bluegreen algae
POC/DOC zooplanktonrotifers
discharge
mussels
NH4, NO2, NO3, P, Si
dissolved nutrients
organic carbon
hydraulics generating segments
heat- balance
planktonic modules
benthicmodules
Schöl et al. 1999, 2002
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Longitudinal („Lagrangian“) sampling campaigns: chlorophyll a
Results
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
50
100
150
200
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Elbe-km
Chl
orop
hyll
a [µ
g/l]
Summer 200026.6. – 5.7. (9 days)
low discharge
Summer 200524.7. – 1.8. (7 days)medium discharge
Spring 20068.5. – 15.5. (6 days)
high discharge
18:00Elbe
6:00
18:00tributaries
6:00
High phytoplankton biomass leads to oxygen supersaturation in the Middle Elbe (up to 200% in summer) and and heavy loads of organic matter in the tidal area.
n = 3
0
50
100
150
200
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Chlorophyll a – measured and modelled data
Results
Sommer 200026.6. – 5.7.
low discharge
18:00Elbe
6:00
18:00tributaries
6:000
50
100
150
200
250
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Chl
orop
hyll
a [µ
g/l]
Elbe-km
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Longitudinal sampling campaigns: dissolved phosphorus (ortho-phosphate)
Resultsor
tho-
PO
4-P
[m
g/l]
Elbe Tributaries
n = 6
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Summer 200026.6. – 5.7. (9 days)
low discharge
Summer 200524.7. – 1.8. (7 days)medium discharge
Spring 20068.5. – 15.5. (6 days)
high discharge
Elbe-km
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Sommer 200026.6. – 5.7.
low discharge
Elbe
tributaries0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
orth
o-P
O4-
P [m
g/l]
Elbe-km
Results
Phosphate – measured and modelled data
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Results
Elbe Tributaries
n = 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
1
2
3
4
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
1
2
3
4
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
SiO
2-S
i [m
g/l]
Summer 200026.6. – 5.7. (9 days)
low discharge
Summer 200524.7. – 1.8. (7 days)medium discharge
Spring 20068.5. – 15.5. (6 days)
high discharge
Elbe-km
Longitudinal sampling campaigns: silica
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Sommer 200026.6. – 5.7.
low discharge
Elbe
tributaries0
1
2
3
4
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
SiO
2-S
i [m
g/l]
Elbe-km
Results
Silica – measured and modelled data
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Longitudinal sampling campaigns: nitrogen (nitrate and total nitrogen)
Results
n = 6
NO
3-N
, tot
al N
[m
g/l]
Summer 200026.6. – 5.7. (9 days)
low discharge
Summer 200524.7. – 1.8. (7 days)medium discharge
Elbe-km
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
1
2
3
4
0 100 200 300 400 500 6000
1
2
3
4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Total-NNO3-N
Total-NNO3-N
Elbe
Tributaries
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Spring 20068.5. – 15.5. (6 days)
high discharge
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Sommer 200026.6. – 5.7.
low discharge
Elbe
tributaries0
1
2
3
4
5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
NO
3-N
[mg/
l]
Elbe-km
Results
Nitrate – measured and modelled data
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
50
100
150
200
250
300Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
km 474.5
1998
left mean (left, right)
Ch
loro
ph
yll
a [µ
g/l
]
km 318.1
km 172.6
modelled measured
km 3.9Chlorophyll a
Jun
Dec
Chlorophyll a [µg/l]
Sep
Nov
Jul
Aug
Feb
Oct
Apr
May
Jan
Elbe-km
Mar
0102030405060708090100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240
100 200 300 400 5000
Results
Chlorophyll a (1998)
measured and modelled(Schöl et al. 2006; measured data by ARGE Elbe)
modelled
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Results
Comparison of
phytoplankton
composition
in the years
1998 and 2003
2003 a warm and dry summer
development of cyanobacteria (data by ARGE Elbe)
1998, Elbe-km 318
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
7.1
4.2
4.3
18.3 1.
415
.429
.413
.527
.510
.624
.6 8.7
22.7 5.
819
.8 2.9
16.9
30.9
14.1
028
.10
11.1
19.
12
Ab
un
dan
ce [
Ind
/ml]
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ch
loro
ph
yll
a [µ
g/l
]
Cyanophyceae
Diatomeae
Chlorophyceae
Chlorophyll-a
2003, Elbe-km 318
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
8.1
5.2
19.2 5.
319
.3 2.4
16.4
28.4
14.5
26.5
11.6
25.6 9.
723
.7 6.8
20.8 3.
917
.91.
10
15.1
029
.1012
.1110
.12
Ab
un
dan
ce [
Ind
/ml]
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ch
loro
ph
yll
a [µ
g/l
]
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Results
2003
Measured
phytoplankton
composition (data ARGE Elbe)
2003, Elbe-km 318
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
Ab
un
dan
ce [
Ind
/ml]
0
50
100
150
200
250
Ch
loro
ph
yll
a [µ
g/l
]
Simulation 2003, Elbe-km 318
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
01.01.2003 01.03.2003 01.05.2003 01.07.2003 01.09.2003 01.11.2003
Ch
loro
ph
yll
a [µ
g/L
]
Cyanophyceae
Diatomeae
Chlorophyceae
2003
Modelled
phytoplankton
composition
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Results
In which direction will the system change if
- temperature increases - summer discharges decrease
Model runs with database from years 1998 and 2003
Model results
slightly more zooplankton
only minor change in algal biomass
change in phytoplankton composition
(increase of cyanobacteria)
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Conclusions and Outlook
Current state- strong phytoplankton growth (factor ~4)- intense turnover of nutrients (biologically controlled)- heavy organic load („secondary pollution“) impairs the oxygen budget of the Elbe estuary- high nutrient loads are problematic for coastal areas
Future state- intensification of biological processes- better growth conditions (light, temperature)- stronger nutrient limitation is possible- better conditions for cyanobacteria- open system for invading species (e.g. mussels)
Phytoplankton development
+
+ -
-
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Conclusions and Outlook
Further work within GLOWA-Elbe II
- Modelling nutrient dynamics and phytoplankton growth in the Czech Elbe section (below Vltava/Moldau).
- Calculation of 5 climate scenarios x 4 socio-economic scenarios
Future state- intensification of biological processes- better growth conditions (light, temperature)- stronger nutrient limitation is possible- better conditions for cyanobacteria- open system for invading species (e.g. mussels)
Phytoplankton development
+
+ -
-
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Thank You
for your attention!
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam H. Fischer, BfG Koblenz
Longitudinal sampling campaigns: (ortho-phosphate) and total phosphorus
Results
n = 6
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Elbe-km
orth
o-P
O4-
P, t
otal
P [
mg/
l]
Summer 200026.6. – 5.7. (9 days)
low discharge
Summer 200524.7. – 1.8. (7 days)medium discharge
Spring 20068.5. – 15.5. (6 days)
high discharge
Total-Portho-PO4-P
Elbe
TributariesTotal-Portho-PO4-P