HEADS UPNext generation version of the
Emergency Transportation Information System (ETIS) ProgramDynamic Hourly Travel Demand
ForecastingIntegrated Traffic Counter Data
Ingestion and Analysis Hourly Traffic Queue Length EstimationHost Shelter Demand EstimationEvacuation Shutdown Calculation
HEADS UPDynamic Hourly Travel Demand
Forecasting Simulates a gradual loading of evacuation
road network based on behavioral surveys Calculates dynamic clearance times
based on specific storm scenario Provides dynamic hourly critical link data
based on specific storm scenario For entire state For entire roadway length (I 75, US 231, SR 60)
Cumulative hourly evacuating vehicle and population data (in and out-of county) for all risk counties
HEADS UPDynamic Hourly Travel Demand
Forecasting Max commute time per link or destination Reverse lane impact determination Link construction designation capability Sensitivity analysis for phased
evacuations Evaluation of clearance time impacts of
road closures and detours Re-routing analysis
HEADS UP
• Integrated Traffic Counter Data Ingestion and Analysis Automatically ingest real time traffic counter data
for DOT website Traffic Volume Hourly Average Speed Hourly Historical Hourly Average Volumes
Dynamic compare and contrast analysis between demand forecast and counter data
Capability key to queue length calculation and evacuation shutdown functions
HEADS UPHourly Traffic Queue Length Estimation
Determine length of traffic queue for each critical link
Graphic depiction of queue length on program map
Host Shelter Demand Estimation Host shelter determination for every county
in the state Predict number of vehicles and people
entering host county by roadway Calculation of time to first arrival of
evacuation vehicles and peak vehicle volume based on traffic counter data
HEADS UPEvacuation Shutdown Calculation
Based on hourly average speed data from real-time traffic counters
Determine which interchange and upstream roadway traffic should be diverted to avoid adding to queue
Icon on map that shows average speed thresholds at each counter location providing indication of possible queue
Map based data input and model resultsCoupled with remote statewide meso-scale
weather monitoring system (FAWN, DOT and other future met stations)
HEADS UP - Operational Uses
Scenario building to test various evacuation strategies and assumptions Non Event:
For scenario development during training events and exercises;
Testing various strategies and options in developing regional plans; and
General contingency planning.
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Scenario building to test various
evacuation strategies and assumptionsDuring actual events:
Investigate options for deploying law enforcement and traffic management resources;
Assess impact of reverse lane options;Study clearance time and operational
benefits of phased evacuations; andAnalyze effects of evacuation
assumptions (e.g., shadow evacuations, in-county sheltering, etc.); and
Anticipate exigent circumstances.
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Real-time monitoring of evacuation
progress and shelter demandAutomatic TTMS ingestion capability
allows user to:Monitor average volume and speeds on
critical and strategic links;Relate observed values against predicted
volumes to assess progress and effectiveness of overall evacuation and traffic management efforts;
Calculate realistic estimates of potential shelter demand and arrival timing of evacuees for host counties;
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Real-time monitoring of evacuation
progress and shelter demandAutomatic TTMS ingestion capability
allows user to:Realize more rapidly accidents and other
circumstances that cause or worsen congestion; and
Obtain better appraisals of actual participation rates and assess the effectiveness of public information efforts.
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation Measures
and Sustaining OperationsEmergency Management
Regional and multi-regional clearance times
Evacuation decision making and coordination
Designation and preparation of host shelter counties
Evacuation shutdown decision making and coordination
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation Measures
and Sustaining OperationsTraffic Operations
More effective deployment of law enforcement resources
Pre-stage personnel and materiel to predicted critical links throughout the entire evacuation event
Use time-based, most congested link data to develop rerouting schemes to divert traffic away from expected congested segments
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation Measures
and Sustaining OperationsTraffic Operations
More effective deployment of law enforcement resources
Determine duration of deployment and possible shifts needed
Designate operational sectors and responsibilities for entire state
Anticipate routine and other reporting requirements between field and Emergency Operations Centers
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation Measures
and Sustaining OperationsTraffic Operations
Implementation of traffic management measures tailored to situation
Pre-stage and continue deployment of highway incident management teams based on service to volume ratios and TTMS data
Deploy ITS resources (i.e., VMS, AM-radios, HAR) for most effective coverage based on service to volume ratios
Analyze options and coordinate operations for reverse–laning and re-routing
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation Measures
and Sustaining OperationsTraffic Operations
Evacuation Shutdown Determine lead times needed to close
interchanges and clear congested roadways based on TTMS average speed data and queue length function
Identify interchanges and alternate routes to clear roadway and reduce queues using queue length determination and evacuation shutdown functions
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation Measures
and Sustaining OperationsShelter Operations
Improving capabilities in host shelter counties
Designate likely host shelter counties based on predicted traffic volumes for roadways and potential bottlenecks
Determine lead time for host counties to prepare for sheltering mission
Develop a more efficient shelter opening scheme based on predicted numbers of evacuees and entering routes
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation
Measures and Sustaining OperationsShelter Operations
Opening refuges of last resort Determine in which counties and along what
roadways refuges may have to be opened based on queue length function.
In conjunction with HURREVAC, determine lead time for counties to prepare refuges.
Using travel demand forecast module, determine potential refuge demand along congested roadways.
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation
Measures and Sustaining OperationsPublic Information
Pre-Departure Advisories Using broadcast media and 511 (“Know
before you go”) inform evacuees of potential congested areas and suggest alternate routes.
Provide information to potential evacuees of worst household commute times and queue lengths depending on routes selected and evacuation start times.
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation
Measures and Sustaining OperationsPublic Information
Pre-Departure Advisories Forewarn potential motorists of what to
expect once evacuation trip has begun based on real time data from TTMS, travel demand, queue length and worst household commute time data.
Using evacuation shutdown lead times, prepare advisories encouraging in-county evacuation and avoidance of occluded roadways.
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation
Measures and Sustaining OperationsPublic Information
Event Specific Advisories to Motorists Requires ITS and other methods of
communicating with evacuees already on roadway (i.e., HAR, VMS, portable radio transmitters, radio)
Forewarn potential evacuees of what to expect at traffic bottlenecks and congested areas based on TTMS and travel demand forecasting model.
HEADS UP - Operational Uses Implementation of Evacuation
Measures and Sustaining OperationsPublic Information
Event Specific Advisories to Motorists Recommend local sheltering options and
alternate routes to motorists along congested roadways and in traffic queues.
Provide times to reach likely destination locations based on TTMS data and travel demand forecast model.
Advise motorist to clear roadways and seek refuges once evacuation shutdown lead times are realized.
HEADS UP - In SummaryThe capability to manage evacuations,
not just initiate them Allows analysis of the impacts of alternate
courses of action and decision making. More realistic estimates of regional
evacuation times and impacts. Allows real time monitoring and analysis
of evacuation situation Permits better planning for exigent
situations on evacuation roadways
HEADS UP - In SummaryThe capability to manage evacuations,
not just initiate them Better prepare host shelter jurisdictions of
potential operational needs. Implications for Public Information
(511and “Know before you Go”) Emergency Public Information (along roadways).
Possible application for other emergencies that precipitate evacuations and diversions including Nuclear Power, Terrorism, Hazmat incidents