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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
Take Hold of the Future Global trends, disrup7ve technologies and managing risks
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One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
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Complexity and scale create risks
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Title Text
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Strategies often overtaken by events World can change faster than you can hold a board meeting
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Benchmarking is toxic to risk management
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Agility
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Risk that 2 people in 10 have same birthday
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Risk that 2 people in 10 have same birthday
10%
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Risk that 2 people in 23 have same birthday
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Risk that 2 people in 23 have same birthday
50%
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Risk that 2 people in 70 have same birthday
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Risk that 2 people in 70 have same birthday
100%
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What is the future of the global
ECONOMY
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WGP 2005-2014 (%,constant prices)
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Vietnam GDP 1985-2011
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>40% WDP in Asia by 2015 IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity 50% populaMon in India under 25 years old
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$3.4 trillion
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$2.4 trillion
Reserves
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One word will dominate ALL
FUTURE
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The greatest risk for every financial
institution is
REPUTATION
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The future is aboutEMOTION
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300 million move to cities in China 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
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Science, technology engineering,
maths
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Most STEM graduates in emerging markets
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China and India dominate
STEM degrees including post-graduate / PhDs
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1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years
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1 week every 4
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Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million over 90 year olds in Italy in 12 years time
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Immigration Remittances
Drive Payment Innovation
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Older Customers
Huge New Markets
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Fluidics Biochemistry Semiconductors Genetics Mathematics Immunology Robotics
Read genome in 2 hours for $5,000
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Pigs teeth grown inside rats Mice grow new teeth from nerve cells / gum
Grow New Teeth
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following coronary / stroke using adult stem cells
Repair Heart / Brain with stem cells
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Build Nanotech Robots
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Confidential
HSV1 causes cold sores. When engineered as Seprehvir (HSV-1716), it is harmless to healthy @ssue.
Oncolytic viruses Infect and kill cancer tumour cells No damage to healthy tissue Evidence of impact in clinical trials Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy
Viruses to cure cancer ?
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After 20 years - 80% alive v 50% on normal calories Less cancer, diabetes, heart disease, strokes, brain decay
Monkeys on diet live longer
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Slow or no ageing is a reality
Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam 405 years
Some animals do not seem to age in normal way
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1 trillion pages a month
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People love Cities and Offices
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Teleworking Only 2.5% of US workers are exclusively home-based 60% UK office workers have opportunity to work from home regularly - but few take it (during office hours)
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Globalised + Barriers Problem of Scale
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VW mega platformVW Mega Pla\orm - basis for 1 m cars
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11% wage inflaMon in China in 2013 and 2014
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Nearshoring Boom
- In many EU naMons, up to 70% of retail spending is in
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e-commerce hits $1.5 trillion 2014 12% all UK retail
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MOBILE Mobile influenced $29bn of retail sales in UK in 2013
50% of all UK online sales are using mobile
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LocaMon MarkeMng
is next BIG THING
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Online / physical worlds become one in Brazil
50% research online - buy in store 40% research in store - buy online
89% want digital information in store
Buy online - deliver to store Buy in store - deliver at home
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Over 4000 road hauliers in EU
1.3bn home delivered e-com items in UK a year (+12% pa)
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3000 Parcel Shops in UK in 12 months Chosen by up to 50% customers for deliveries
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Internet of Things
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1.5m components tracked perfectly in Airbus supply chain
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$5bn home automation market
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1.7bn mobile users - no bank account Kenya - 17m customers use mPesa $9bn pa - >33% GDP
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90
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EU card issuance/ debt - LOW / ZERO GROWTHRegulation and competition - MARGINS CUT
BIG FINES FOR PAYMENT SYSTEMS FAILURES
Payment Revenues Crisis
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Value of Euro notes 2002-2013
in circulaMon
CASH BOOM in EU
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Bitcoin Bubble and Bust? Secret and untraceable
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Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model
2010 2013 2015
TelcoBanks
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90% Microsoh R&D SalesForce R&D > $3bn pa
CLOUD
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Time at bank teller cut from 4 to 1 minute
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90% all global data
generated in last 2 years
Big Data Sales, underwriMng, fraud
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Talking to customers on journey of life
Death of traditional marketing
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Future of Household Appliances and
RoboMcs ?
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Digital Control
We can fuse brain and
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Overwhelming CYBERATTACKS
from States or criminals
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Web of Things - Big Data - Cloud 180bn spam emails a day
600m new viruses, malware, trojans a year >220m peoples details lost in single alack 70% large corporaMons have been hacked
100,000 alacks an hour on US Navy Paralysis of Estonia government in 2007
Worries about US, Russia, China penetraMon of web / cloud following Prism
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$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism
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Shale gas 33% US supplies
3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil
produced than Saudi by 2020
200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years
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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power useQUEBEC from ARIZONA MOSCOW from SAHARA
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Solar cell generation parity
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Solar Cells $ /wal 1990-2015
subsidies
Price Parity
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120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert
Why China will dominate wind power industry 40% EU power = wind by 2050
Surplus wind to hydrogen - to methane ?
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Managing Peak GeneraMon In June 2013 electricity prices in Germany became negaMve - EU150 / MWhr
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Smart heating or cooling Save 30-50% energy - payback 4 years
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New Street Lamps save 3%
national energy
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do things you really believe in Life is Short
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Compliance does not make you ethical
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Teams in top half of Engagement 86% more likely to have better customer metrics 70% more likely to have low staff turnover 70% more likely to be highly productive 44% more likely to be profitable
Gallup meta-survey > 10 million people
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Lesson from Non-Profits and AcMvists
Connect with all the passions people have and they will follow you to the
ends of the earth, promote what you do with pride, and may even be willing to
work for you for next to nothing
. and the four word phrase is .
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Building a Beler World
The Magic of every great Business
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
globalchange.com 15 million visitors
5 million video views
http://globalchange.com