Download - George Musi - The (Never-ending) Quest for Holistic Attribution – The Holy Grail of Marketing
MINDSHARE
The (Never-ending) Quest for Holistic
Attribution – The Holy Grail of Marketing
Today’s media landscape is evolving at an unprecedented rate
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BLACK & WHITE TV
FIRST SATELLITE
BROADCAST
RISE OF CABLE TV
MORE ADVERTISER-SUPPORTED NETWORKS
DIGITAL AND
INTERNET REVOLUTION
SMARTPHONES HDTV TABLETS OVER-THE-TOP DISTRIBUTION
CHANGE IS ACCELERATING.
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 - 2005 2006 - 2011
2012 AND BEYOND
XBOX LIVE CAMERA IN DEVICES/TV-
LEARNING THE CONSUMER
TARGETED ADS
PERSONALIZED RECOMMEND-
ACTIONS
ENHANCED CONTENT SEARCH
CAPABILITIES
CLOUD-BASED CONTENT DELIVERY
SOCIAL TV DIGITAL RADIO VIA MOBILE AND
TABLET APPS
…
DVR FIRST DOWNLOAD-
ABLE CONTENT
SOLD
MP3 PLAYERS
VIDEO STREAMING
DIGITALTV
CONNECTED WORLD
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technology, mobile, digital and social have changed consumers
inFundamental Ways
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Consumers are adding extra new dimensions
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consumersno longer glued to their seats
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TV is still the first screen a
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it’s now multi-screen
reality!7
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Vatican Crowd –2005St. Peter’s Square
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Vatican Crowd –2013St. Peter’s Square
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M A N Y TO ONEO N E T O M A N Y
WHAT USED TO BE… HAS NOW BECOME…
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T hen Now
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Challenges brands face today are not yester year’s
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But the object remains the same…
Right Audience
Right Format
Right Creative & Message
Right Setting (Time, Place, Context)
Reach
Drive Relevance,
Receptivity & Attention
Influence
Maximize Response
Impact
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…and to
suggest ideas & recommend
actions the ‘now what’
and ‘what nexts’
answer key business
questions ‘the whats’
identify actionable insights
the ‘so-whats’ and ‘whys’
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It’s a highly dynamic marketing environment
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The
always-on, always-present, & always-connected consumer
has more
choices in how, where, and when they consume media
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non-linear, continuous and dynamicThe “customer journey”
Each step of the process is connected
to each other in a non-sequential way
Each touchpoint consumers are
exposed to enable countless different scenarios
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are blurred for consumersLines
+MARKETERS
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Marketers are battling with the
growing complexity
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2. Align with the new on-linear, continuous and dynamic Consumer Decision Journey
the pressure is mounting
for marketers to:
1. Demonstrate the value of their campaigns and show what worked or didn’t
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SiteMobile
Social
Search
PCTablet
iTV
With so many touch points wanting to claim credit…
…how do you divide credit?
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What isAttribution?at•tri•bu•tion (ˌa-trə-ˈbyü-shən) n.
the practice of allocating partial value to different touch points within the customer journey which
have influenced a desired outcomethe concept is simple:
give credit where credit is due
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It lets you look inside marketing performance to see exactly how it works – all the moving parts and their interactionsIt shows the cause and the effect, the precise customer path, and the big picture including influences and dependencies
Data is the byproduct of consumers doing thingsATTRIBUTION starts with data
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Veracity
Data UncertaintyManaging the reliability and predictability of inherently
imprecise data types
Velocity
Data in MotionAnalysis of streaming data to enable decisions within
fractions of a second
Volume
Data at ScaleTerabytes to
petabytes of data
Variety
Data in Many FormsStructured, unstructured,
text, multimedia
ValueJust having data is no use unless it can be turned into value
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1. 2.
4. 3.
Audience(Who)
Creative(What)
Placement(Where)
Time(When)
Right Marketin
g Mix
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“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything
that can be counted counts.”
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Attribution comes in many forms, with various levels of sophistication
However, there are basically two predominant types of attribution models:
HEURISTIC, RULES (Manual
Weightings)
ALGORITHMIC(Statistical
Weightings)
Digital Attribution
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Applies a set percentage of the
credit based on the position in the customer journey
Position based
Lacks reasoning and extremely subjective
Doesn’t recognize the channel that may have acquired the customer
Time Decay
Arbitrary constants used throughout
Doesn’t account for channel costs or likely engagement in acquiring or converting customers
Linear
Assigns credit on a curve
Requires judgment calls/guesswork
Custom
Multi touch
Ignores everything after first click
Not a true reflection of each channel’s role in converting the sale
First Touch
Everything is ignored except last click
Reflects the channel that converted but doesn’t recognize each channels contribution
Last Touch
Everything is ignored except the last channel to show an advertisement
Last Ad Event
Single touch
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Moving towards multi-touch attribution (MTA)
Provides a more realistic assessment of ROI by capturing a holistic picture of the customer journey across channels
A multi-touch attribution model attributes value to observed touch point along the path to conversion
✖Miscalculates ROI by assuming the consumer doesn’t see or click any other ads along the way
A last-touch attribution model attributes entire value of a
conversion to the last ad clicked or seen
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Advertisers track data that they don’t use
a small % of the data you have collected?Single-touch attribution considers only
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But, custom MTA models can still arbitrarily distribute fixed credit to each touchpoint (event/variable)As a result, even though they are considered superior to the other rules-based models, they should all be considered somewhat limited when trying to build a complete measurement and performance picture
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So, what’s the right
tool?
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Marketing is a bit of a
colorful mess
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Do you want to focus on the Brush Strokes?
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Do you want to focus on the Color Mixture?
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Do you want to focus on the Composition?
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Do you want to see the Full Picture?
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Algorithmic AttributionAlgorithmic Weighting:To remove the guesswork in attribution we can use machine-learning and proven sophisticated algorithms to calculate probability-based weightings
Address the limits of current attribution approaches
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Multi-touch Attribution
Algorithmic Attribution Modeling
Reality
Last Click Attribution
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Going deeper to understand the different roles during the customer decision Journey
B
InfluencersWhich channels provide fre-quency and reinforce and re-
inforce the message?
A
Introducers Which elements seed and
capture interest of con-sumers?
C
ClosersWhich channels and net-works contribute the most
conversions?
$
Measuring the value of the “introducer”, “influencer” and “closer” are all important
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Blue Player• Scored 5 goals as the last-touch• Scored 0 goals as first-touch• All 5 goals were assisted from other
players.• White player assisted directly in 3 of
his 5 goals• Red player assisted in only 1 of his
goals• Influencer value: 0
• 0 (first-touch) + 0 (assisted) = 0• Direct value: 5 (last touch goals
scored)• Total value: 5
White Player• Scored 1 goal as the last-touch• Scored 0 goals as first-touch• Assist in influencing 5 goals with the Red
Player & Blue Player• Influencer value: 5
• 0 (first-touch) + 5 (assisted): 0• Direct value: 1• Total value: 6
Red Player• Scored 3 goals as the last-touch• Scored 0 goals as first-touch• Assisted in influencing 5 goals with the
White Player & Blue Player• Influencer value: 2
• 0 (first-touch) + 2 (assisted) = 2• Direct value: 3• Total value: 5
Yellow Player• Scored 0 goals as the last touch• Scored 0 goals as first-touch• Assisted in 2-levels deep in 5 goals• Influencer value: 5
• 0 (first-touch) + 5 (assisted @ 2nd level) = 5
• Direct value: 0• Total value: 5
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Economy
Industry Change
sGeographical Location
Time of Day
Day of Week
Competition
Seasonal
Effects
Sophisticated Approach• Takes a look at all media touch points of all users
(including those who didn’t convert)
• Incorporates non-media factors that play a role in purchase behavior
• Uses a statistical algorithm to distribute credit (value)
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One Team, One Goal
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The holy grail: the integration of all touchpoints
TV Direct mail Newspaper Display Social visitWebsite visit Paid search click
Mass and Offline Digital
New Customer
Integrated Marketing Attribution
Model
$
multiple event streams are integrated to offer a more complete & accurate view
of the “customer decision journey”
Integrated, holistic marketing attribution modeling
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Algorithmic Attribution
Marketing Mix ModelingTop down Approach
Bottom up Approach
OutcomesCombining Approaches To
ImproveMarketing Optimization
Bridge traditional & new marketing models
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Machine learning
(e.g., agent-based
models)
Bottom-up (e.g.,
Algorithmic attribution
models
Econometric top-down
(e.g., marketing
mix models)
Next Generation Marketing Attribution Modeling
To drive media forward, we have to maximize the greatest impact of media exposure
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ReachFrequencyImpressions
Exposure
AwarenessOpinionRelevanceConsiderationIntent
Perception
Viewability ReceptivityAttentionParticipation
Engagement
A Framework For Impact-focused Planning
ApplicationsNAAsSpend
Outcome
SearchSiteSocial
Response
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Using a combination of analytical capabilities
Optimization + Decision + Action
What happened?
Mining past data to report, visualize, and understand what has already happened — after the fact
Descriptive
Why did it happen?
Leverages past data to understand the underlying relationship between data inputs and outputs to understand why something happened
Diagnostic
What can I do more?
Determines what “value add” can be provided before the consumer realizes the need
Pre-emptive
What will happen?
Determines which decision and/or action (“what if”) will produce the most effective result against a specific set of objectives and constraints
Predictive
What should I do?
Investigative data to proactively seek opportunities to target (emergent outcomes)
Prescriptive
Sense & Respond Predict & Act
Hindsight Insight Foresight
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Better predict what consumers want or will do
Prediction
Properly quantify the contribution of each action
Attribution
Make continued improvements to campaigns
Optimization
Effectively plan and forecast campaigns across all marketing channels
Planning + Forecasting
Data Insights Actionstransformed to relevant that drives
Leverage the data and insights available in
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Focused at helping brands bridge Information
Capture, transform and visualize relevant data
into meaningful business metrics
Input to Outcome
InsightsIdentify underlying drivers, patterns, & trends; understand
behavior and predict outcome
ImpactOperationalize data driven decisions to realize sustainable
business value
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Valu
eEvent
Data captured
Information delivered
Action taken
Time
Action time
Improve response time to opportunities
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Enlighten
Creating Insights To
Empower
Leveraging Data To
Enable
Using Partners To
THANK YOU