Download - Future Commercial Aircraft 1
11
Future Commercial Aircraft Future Commercial Aircraft
Professor Andrew WalkerProfessor Andrew WalkerChristine BowlingChristine Bowling
November 2008November 2008
AEROSPACE MARKETAEROSPACE MARKET
CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET CLASSIFICATION OF AEROSPACE MARKET ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPEACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT TYPE
-TurbopropTurboprop
- JetJet
- PistonPiston
- TurbopropTurboprop
- BizjetBizjet
- CivilCivil
- MilitaryMilitary
-Fighter-Fighter
-Ground -Ground attackerattacker
-BomberBomber
-TrainerTrainer
-UAVUAV
-Satellite Satellite
-Launch Launch VehicleVehicle
REGIONAL REGIONAL
JETJET
GENERAL GENERAL
AVIATIONAVIATION
HELICOPTERHELICOPTER DEFENCEDEFENCE SPACESPACE
$7.7bn$7.7bn $11.4bn$11.4bn $9.2bn$9.2bn $36.9bn$36.9bn $17.2bn$17.2bnGlobalGlobal
MarketMarket
20082008
COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL
AEROSPACEAEROSPACE
$51.0bn$51.0bn
-Narrow-body Narrow-body AircraftAircraft
- Wide-body Wide-body AircraftAircraft
33
A G E N D AA G E N D A
1.1. Commercial DemandCommercial Demand
2.2. Future AircraftFuture Aircraft
3.3. Composites – Design & ManufacturingComposites – Design & Manufacturing
4.4. Carbon FibreCarbon Fibre
55
World Passenger Air Travel in 2008World Passenger Air Travel in 2008
25.9%
2.5%
9.5%
14%
14.1%
3.5%
4.2%
12.6%
2.6%
1.4%9.7%
9.7%
16.4% in 202218.4% in 2022
Region 1999-2008 2009-2018 1999-2018
Africa 203 354 457
Asia, Oceania and CIS 1664 2844 4508
Europe 2794 3221 6015
Middle East 285 270 555
Central America, Caribbean & South America
652 734 1386
North America 3304 3925 7229
Total 8902 11248 20150
AIRCRAFT DELIVERIESAIRCRAFT DELIVERIES
66
Fuel BurnFuel Burn
50% reduction in fuel consumption per passenger by 202020% more efficient engines
30% advanced airframes (CFRP) and aerodynamics
Streamlined ATM?
“Triple the number of passengers flying by 2020”
Need to reduce emissions by 65% or better?
20 June 2005 oil hits ~ $60 per barrel in the Far East!
At $60 Barrel - Aircraft Operations lost $6.2 billion in 2005
NB: Profit of $6 billion would represent an operating margin of 3%
21 April 2006 oil hits ~ $75 per barrel in New York
Cathay Pacific – 12% wasted fuel
20 November 2007 oil hits ~$100 per barrel
77
Low Mass Transport SystemsLow Mass Transport Systems
• It is common convention to describe Newton’s 2nd Law
• Thus if we reduce the mass of a moving object, we reduce the energy required to move it.
• The passenger to weight ratio of a vehicle or aircraft is a key measure of its energy consumption efficiency.
Force = Mass x Acceleration
Paradox – rising fuel costs and increasing vehicle/airframe weights
88
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
2000
1998
2002
750
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
850
1450
1550
FordEscort MK2
FordEscort MK3
FordEscort MK4
FordEscort MK5
FordFocus
VWGolf Mk1
VWGolf Mk2
VWGolf Mk3
VWGolf Mk4
2004
Citroen GS
Citroen BX
VWGolf Mk5
Citroen ZX
Citroen XsaraToyota
Corolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
ToyotaCorolla
AstraMk1
AstraMk2
AstraMk3
AstraMk4
AstraMk5
VauxhallCavalier Mk1 Cavalier
Mk2
Cavalier Mk3
Vectra 1
Vectra 2
YEARS
KgVehicle Weight by Generation
Source: Jaguar
Weight per passengerWeight per passenger
BOEING 707
1954, 700kg/passenger
AIRBUS A380
2008, 1,100kg/passenger
(Approx. 430k litres of fuel per day)
An Economic CrisisAn Economic Crisis
“ “ COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature COMMERCIAL AVIATION is a mature industry at the end of its current product life industry at the end of its current product life cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient cycle, our Industry requires a more efficient aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced aircraft – a composite airframe, advanced engines and electric systems!”engines and electric systems!”
or Business Opportunityor Business Opportunity!
• Airbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20mAirbus A320 $61-$67m (inc. discount) – Annual full bill $20m
• JET ‘A’ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 JET ‘A’ Fuel $0.71 per gallon in 2002. $3.92 → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal, → $4.65 in 2008 (Forecast $2.70/gal,
2009)2009)
• Fuel is 50-60% of operators costFuel is 50-60% of operators cost
• If we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisleIf we cut fuel burn by 30%, we save $6m/yr per single aisle
• A320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per monthA320 order book ~ 2450 aircraft, build rate ~35 aircraft per month
• Airbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 yearsAirbus likely to build 4000-5000 single aisle aircraft over the next 10 years
• General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in General inflation will start feeding into manufacturing cost of metallic aircraft in
2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. -2009 and there is no room absorb increased prices. - lean lean
programmes running.programmes running.
Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing!Air France A320 fleeting is 20+ years old and needs replacing!
Evolution or RevolutionEvolution or Revolution
• New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic)New efficient designs sell for premium prices! (B787 Vs B767, B747-8 Vs B747 Classic)
OptionsOptions
• A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010)A320 enhanced, 4-5% Fuel saving, aircraft “sales” value $64m-$70m each (2010)
• Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014)Revised A320 with GTF powered engine (Geared Turbo Fan), 12-18% fuel saving (2014)
• New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving? New A32X Composite Airframe/Electric Systems/GTF Engine, 30% fuel saving?
- aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016) - aircraft sales value $80 – $90m each (2016)
• 400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales400 aircraft per year @ $20m → $8bn extra sales
• ““CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!)CHICKEN AND EGG” (Pratt & Witney laid the egg!)
• Retention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirementsRetention value of existing metallic fleet Vs replacement requirements
• Customers want new aircraft now!Customers want new aircraft now!
• Will Boeing lead Airbus?Will Boeing lead Airbus?
• New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?New mainstream single aisle manufacturer?
“ “ A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm”A Revolutionary Idea changes the existing paradigm”
1414
DC3
Aluminium Aeroplane
War Technology
Merlin EnginePressured Cabin – Boeing 307
Constellation
TWA
707, Swept Wing, Jets
Pan-Am
747
A300A380
787
Composites
Jetliner - 102
Comet
Tu-104
DC-10
1930’s 1940’s 1960’s 1970’s 2004
De-regulation
Timeline
Boeing 707 Golden Anniversary
Activity Index
Flying Wing
Approx. 30% improvement over 50
years
30% efficiency improvement over 5-10
years
Commercial AircraftEUREKAEUREKA
TIMESTIMES
1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes1927 – 1932 Biplanes to Monoplanes
Vickers Vernon (1927)Vickers Vernon (1927) Boeing 247 (1932)Boeing 247 (1932)
• Metal ConstructionMetal Construction
• Monocoque (Stressed-Skin) ConstructionMonocoque (Stressed-Skin) Construction
• Cantilevered WingCantilevered Wing
• Variable Pitch PropellerVariable Pitch Propeller
• Reliable EngineReliable Engine
• Retractable Landing GearRetractable Landing Gear
Armstrong Whitworth ArgosyArmstrong Whitworth Argosy
““An Operators Perspective” An Operators Perspective”
• 115 Aircraft115 Aircraft
- 15, B747-40015, B747-400 (14+ hours/day)(14+ hours/day)- 13, B747-400F13, B747-400F (14 hours/day)(14 hours/day)- 58, B777-200/200ER/30058, B777-200/200ER/300 (15+ hours/day)(15+ hours/day)- 19, B777-300ER19, B777-300ER (14 hours/day)(14 hours/day)- 5, A340-5005, A340-500 (16+ hours/day)(16+ hours/day)- 5, A380-8005, A380-800
44thth largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax largest airline in terms of international (RPK) Revenue Pax KilometreKilometre
22ndnd largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre) largest airline in terms of FTK (Freight Tonnage Kilometre)
FLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICSFLEET OPERATION CHARACTERISTICS
• “Operating a demanding deployment pattern while not compromising safety and high service standard demands reduction or elimination of unscheduled flight interruptions”.
• The challenge “To create high reliability in an environment fraught with uncertainties”
CorrosionCorrosion: 33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years : 33% of aluminium floor beams replaced in B747-400 after 5 years (25 man hours each beam)(25 man hours each beam)
No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!No corrosion in CFRP B777-200/300s after 10 years!
The Maintenance BagThe Maintenance Bag
Corrosion
Costs
RepairabilityWeight
Fatigue
Reliability
WorriesWorries1.1. Insidious mode of failure.Insidious mode of failure. Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well Aluminium Cracking Propagation is well
understood.understood.
February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 February 1989, SIA, “ Composite Rudder Panel bulging & billowing wind” (3 months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)months repair + similar defect on 2 other aircraft)
2.2. Susceptibility to HeatSusceptibility to Heat Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust Cold and Heat “SIA lost a portion of thrust reverse in reverse in
December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem -December 2007”. Overheating of CFRP by hot air. Cold also a problem -5050°c!°c!
3.3. Full or Zero Repair ApproachFull or Zero Repair Approach “Quick & dirty option”“Quick & dirty option”
4.4. NDT LimitationsNDT Limitations
Consequence of Unscheduled EventConsequence of Unscheduled Event
The Goal is to eliminate all The Goal is to eliminate all unscheduled eventsunscheduled events
ConclusionsConclusions
““Composites enable us to do more with less”Composites enable us to do more with less”
““Next Quantum leap involves making Next Quantum leap involves making detection of defects and repair actions simpler detection of defects and repair actions simpler and more convenient”and more convenient”
““The ultimate challenge is to have a new The ultimate challenge is to have a new composite material that has active health composite material that has active health monitoring features embedded, to accurately monitoring features embedded, to accurately pre-empt failures”pre-empt failures”
““In this way we would be the ‘master of the In this way we would be the ‘master of the situation’ and not the servant”situation’ and not the servant”
2121
2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION!2. FUTURE AIRCRAFT – REVOLUTION!
- Payload ratioPayload ratio
- DragDrag
- ThrustThrust
2222
Timeline
A380
Eclipse 500
ARJ 21
Cessna Mustang
Honda Jet
FUTURE AIRCRAFTFUTURE AIRCRAFT
Composites
Avionics
Payloads
Blended Wing
Boeing 787
Airbus A350
Oblique Wing
Activity IndexActivity Index
((air traffic)air traffic)
(value)(value)
(performance(performance))
23
Airbus A380 (500+ passenger sector, 330 aircraft - 2008-2024)
A380 FuselageCarbon composite pressure bulkheadCarbon composite pressure bulkhead
2525
Airbus A350Airbus A350 (large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024) (large twin aisle sector ~2300 aircraft 2008 - 2024)
35% of the aircraft, by weight, will be CFRP
Conventional Derivative of the A330
Original entry into service 2010
Major Redesign
Now 2012-2014
3030
Boeing 787 Dreamliner(Small Twin Aisle Sector, 3200 aircraft 2008 -
2024)
More than 50% composite aircraft
Faustian bargain with Japan, nearly 70% foreign content, wings!
Entry into service 2009 – more than ~800 orders (USD 160 billion)
3131
Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024)Single Aisle (sector 17000+ aircraft 2007-2024)
100-200 Seats
Boeing Y1 Project (2014)
scaled version of 787?composite airframehigher aspect ratio wing design
Airbus A320 successor (2015)
higher bypass enginesextended wingspanreduced rear stabilisers
New generation centreline engine in 2014?
Bombardier CSeries (sector 5900 aircraft 2008- 2024)
PI = Range x Speed x Volume
MTOW
Flying 2008 – 15% more efficient than Airbus, Boeing or Embraer
100-150 seater – 4 models / 2 fuselage lengths – maximum take-off weight 55-66T – seating is 5 abreast 3-2 layout
A new aircraft family to fill the sweet-spot between regional jets and mid-size airlines
A318 107 seats $45m
A319 124 seats $55m
A320 150 seats $62m
B717 107 seats $40m
RJ’s 100 seats $30m
ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013ENTRY IN SERVICE 2013
Boeing Yellowstone ProjectBoeing Yellowstone Project
Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Yellowstone is a Boeing Commercial Airplanes project to replace its entire Civil Aircraft Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)Portfolio. (Composite aerostructures, electrical systems and new turbofan engines)
Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370Yellowstone 3 and Airbus A370350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine350+ seats, twin deck, twin engine
3939
HAWKER BEECHCRAFT PREMIER 1
First Commercial Aircraft to utilize an all composite fuselage manufactured using Cincinnati System
Adam Aircraft Honda
Total Market for Business and General Aviation
19,700 aircraft 2005 - 2014
29,800 aircraft 2014 - 2024
4040
3. COMPOSITES3. COMPOSITES
Weight Saving and AerodynamicsWeight Saving and Aerodynamics
(Payload & Drag)(Payload & Drag)
4141
Percentage of Total Take-off Weight Vimy
Commercial 1920
Vickers Viscount
1956
Modern Single Aisle
1986
Modern Long Range
1979
Concorde Supersonic
1969 Payload 17 14 24 18 9
Fuel 25 23 18 37 48
Systems Crew etc.
11 25 18 12 10
Power Plant 18 12 11 10 10
Structure 29 26 29 23 23
History shows we need to improve payload/performance by 30% to “ignite” a new Triz curve.
A300-600F Boeing 737NG Freight
A380-800F
Freighter
A400M
Payload ~30 ~26 ~26 25-28
Performance TargetsPerformance Targets
Advanced Aircraft Technologies
Weight Reduction Drag Reduction Engines
Manufacturing Design + Advanced
Materials
Aerodynamics + Composites
12% fuel saving in 2014
17%-19% saving in 20206.5% fuel saving5.5%-6.0% fuel
saving
Low Noise
29% - 31% FUEL SAVING
11%7%
4343
Composite Applications in the Composite Applications in the Aerospace MarketAerospace Market
Boeing 777 – Different composite material systems
Source: Opportunities for Composites in the Global Aerospace Market 2004-2010, E-Composites, Inc
4444
Bell Boeing V-22 OspreyBell Boeing V-22 Osprey
Interior of V-22 wing upper surface shows the integral skin and stringers in the one-piece composite structure (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
V-22 wing for the GTA being fitted in a manufacturing fixture (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
Assembly hall in Ridley Park August 1988 (picture taken from book by Bill Norton)
5757
Composites allow a wing to be designed with a smaller wing box
Baseline B787-8 wing box aspect ratio of 10. B777-200 has a ratio of 8.7
Composites are particularly suited to very large aircraft
Slimmer wings → reduced wing area → reduced drag
5858
Airflow is the greatest single determining factor for aircraft performance
Cd A380 = 0.0133Cd A380 = 0.0133 Typical subsonic Typical subsonic transport Cd = 0.012transport Cd = 0.012
COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect ratio COMPOSITE MATERIAL properties allow for the design of high aspect ratio wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )wings (increased laminar airflow and reduced turbulent airflow )
REDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICSREDUCED DRAG DUE TO ENHANCED AERODYNAMICS
AERODYNAMICSAERODYNAMICS
F-8 Supercritical Wing (1973)
Laminar AirflowLaminar Airflow
Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow Airflow stays attached to the wing. The greater the region of separated flow the greater the drag.the greater the drag.
6060
Geodetic (Basketweave) PrincipleGeodetic (Basketweave) Principle
Barnes Wallis, Wellington Bomber
Spirally wound retaining wire mesh attached to a secondary structure
Geodetic line - “Shortest distance between two points on a curved surface”
Loads carried by shortest route
Eliminates internal load carrying structure
Single Aisle, Geodetic/Carbon Composite aircraftPayload of 34%
6161
Vickers 432 experimental wing
R-100 Airship Wellington Factory
GEODETIC AIRCRAFTGEODETIC AIRCRAFT
Design RulesDesign Rules
1.1. Curves not CornersCurves not Corners2.2. Linear joints rather than bolts and rivetsLinear joints rather than bolts and rivets3.3. Reduce component “part” count!Reduce component “part” count!4.4. WingsWings - high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge- high aspect ratio, avoid moving leading edge
- smooth surfaces- smooth surfaces- GINA shape, changing system- GINA shape, changing system- reduce monuments, front spar, ribs- reduce monuments, front spar, ribs- high flexural wing- high flexural wing- laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils)- laminar airflow! (on main wing and aerofoils)- no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing)- no centre wing box (streamline wing to fuselage fairing)
5.5. Fuselage Fuselage - “tubes” not “panels”- “tubes” not “panels”6.6. ““Small” EmpanageSmall” Empanage7.7. ““Electric” not “hydraulic”Electric” not “hydraulic”8.8. Accurate assembly, water jet cuttingAccurate assembly, water jet cutting9.9. Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc.Materials Specification – Use of different grades of carbon fibre, prepregs etc.10.10. Female MouldsFemale Moulds
STRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFTSTRATEGY – NEW SINGLE AISLE COMPOSITE AIRFRAME AIRCRAFT
Vertical Integration
Design for “Use” (Design for Manufacture)
Optimized Virtual Design
Netshape woven textiles – Advanced Materials
Low Cost Processing
Net Shape Composites
Low Cost Assembly
Self Monitoring (NDT)
Self Healing
25% Wt Saving - 25% reduction in manufacturing costs – 25% reduction in operating costs
Timescales
0-3 years 3 years 5 years 6 yearsLow hanging fruit Simple Primary Medium to Large Primary Wings & Fuselage
- interiors ribs rear pressure bulkhead complete fuselage
- secondary structures stringers tail sector wings
- fuel pipes floor beams complex and thick sections engines
general aviation components composite pylons
Philosophy
Background Scope ConstraintsObjectives Assumptions Resources Deliverables Output Value
Operators SpecificationOperators Specification Design Concept Detailed Design Design Concept Detailed Design Design Fix Design Fix ManufacturerManufacturer
Year A320 A330-A340 A340-600 A380 A400M Total
2007 371 71 10 1 0 453
2008 389 77 12 8 1 487
2009 414 87 10 30 12 553
2010 414 89 10 50 19 582
Year A350 A32X
2014 3 0
2015 65 (140) 4
2016 100 (140) 80 (150)
2017 110 (140) 370 (360)
2018 130 (140) 460 (480)
Year B787 Y1
2007 0
2008 7
2009 49
2010 96
2011 148
2012 180
2013 200
2014 200 1
2015 200 65
2016 225 180
2017 200 260
2018 200 450
FORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFTFORECAST DELIVER FOR NEW AIRCRAFT
A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE)A350 & A32X (NEW SINGLE AISLE)
BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE)BOEING – B787 & Y1 (NEW SINGLE AISLE)
The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft.The above are aircraft delivery dates, components generally enter the supply chain 2-3 years before delivery of the first aircraft.
Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build Both Airbus and Boeing estimate aircraft demand to be about 1000 large passenger aircraft from 2009. However, when we add forecast build numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” numbers, the total is ~1270 aircraft/year (from 2010). Passenger travel is growing at around 6% per year. It therefore seems likely that the “1000” number is a serious underestimate.number is a serious underestimate.
4. CARBON FIBRE4. CARBON FIBRE
Future Demand for an Advanced MaterialFuture Demand for an Advanced Material
Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) Estimated Carbon Fibre Demand (Tonnes) 2006-2020 2006-2020
Confirmed Scenario
Forecast Scenario
Aluminium Model
2006
2010
2020
2020
2020
Civil Aviation Existing aircraft (A320, B777 etc) B747 Replacement B777 Replacement A380 A350 B787 New B737 and A32X
3,700 200 - 100 -
5,200 2,000 - 3,000 -
3,400 2,000 2,700 6,000 15,000
2,000 2,600 6,000 2,200 8,500 6,000 15,000
Military Fighters, transport, helicopters
900
1,250
1,800
2,600
Regional Aircraft and Business Jets
230 488 625 1,200
Total
5,130 11,938 31,525 46,100
Wind Energy
3,750 7,500 20,000 60,000
Sports
5,420 6,660 8,330 9,000
Industrial (including gas tanks)
11,660 16,666 25,830 50,000
Other uses (including anti-ballistic & medical)
1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000
Grand total
26,960 43,764 86,685 167,100 364,000