Future Armed Forces 2040
NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP 21 September 2017 Slide 1
Alan R. Shaffer
26-27 September 2017
Sofia, Bulgaria
• “I Think There Is A World Market For Maybe Five Computers”
– Thomas Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943
• “Television Won’t Last Because People Will Soon Get Tired of Staring At A Plywood Box Every Night”
– Daryl Zanuck, Movie Producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946
• “There Is No Reason For Anyone to Have A Computer In His Home
– Ken Olson, President of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977
• “The Idea That Cavalry Will Be Replaced by These Iron Coaches is Absurd”
– Aide-de-Camp to Field Marshall Haig, 1915
• “There is not the Slightest Indication that Nuclear Energy Will Ever Be Obtainable”
– Albert Einstein, 1932
• “Prediction is Very Difficult, Especially if it is About the Future”
– Neils Bohr
Predictions About the Future
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 2
• Global “Megatrends”
• A Revolution in Industry
– Companies Rise and Fall Quickly
– Technology Maturation Cycle Time Continues to Shrink
• Three Simultaneous Technology Revolutions
– Cyber – Physical; Phase 4 of the Industrial Revolution
– Biological Revolution
– Nano-Manufacture Revolution
• A Revolution in Manufacturing
Change Vectors
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 3
MegaTrends
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 4
Price Waterhouse Cooper, 2016
Frost & Sullivan, 2015
Hay Group 2016 EY, 2015 HP 2016
Shift in Global Economic Power
Urbanization Globalization 2.0 Digital Future Rapid Urbanization
Demographic Shifts
Electric Mobility Individualism and Value Pluralism
Global Marketplace
Changing Demographics
Accelerating Urbanization
Space Jam (small satellites)
Digitization Urban World Hyper Globalization
Rise of Technology
Cyber Warfare Demographic Shifts
Resourceful Planet (Energy)
Accelerated Innovation
Climate Change Robotics Technological Convergence
Health Reimagined
Convergence of Diagnostics with Big Data and AI
MegaTrends Where NATO Works
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 5
Price Waterhouse Cooper, 2016
Frost & Sullivan, 2015
Hay Group 2016 EY, 2015 HP 2016
Shift in Global Economic Power
Urbanization Globalization 2.0 Digital Future Rapid Urbanization
Demographic Shifts
Electric Mobility Individualism and Value Pluralism
Global Marketplace
Changing Demographics
Accelerating Urbanization
Space Jam (small satellites)
Digitization Urban World Hyper Globalization
Rise of Technology
Cyber Warfare Demographic Shifts
Resourceful Planet (Energy)
Accelerated Innovation
Climate Change Robotics Technological Convergence
Health Reimagined
Convergence of Diagnostics with Big Data and AI
Significant to Military: Urban Operations, Technological Convergence, Autonomous
Systems, Cyber and Decision Making Using Big Data / Artificial Intelligence
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 6
Revolution in Industry
Companies Rise and Fall Quickly
23 Years Ago The Worlds 10 Largest
Companies (2016)
1. Walmart
(Merchandise)
2. State Grid (Utilities)
3. Sinopec Group (Oil)
4. China National
Petroleum (Oil)
5. Toyota (Auto)
6. Volkswagen (Auto)
7. Royal Dutch Shell
(Oil)
8. Berkshire Hathaway
(Insurance)
9. Apple (Computers)
10.Exxon Mobile (Oil)
Pace of Technology Technology Adoption Timeline (1900-2005)
The Pace of Technology Development and Market Availability is Exceeding the Pace
of Acquisition
~45 Year Cycle ~20 Year Cycle
• Incubation Time From
Discovery to Application
Continues to Shrink
• Chance for
Revolutionary Military
Capability Increases
• Time To Respond
Shrinking
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 8
Three Simultaneous Technology Revolutions
• Three Simultaneous Technology
Disruptions
– Information: Cyber-Physical
– Biology: Shift to Cognitive
– Nano: Systems Shrink
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 9
Cyber-Physical
• Merging of Physical Systems – Computers
– Internet of Things, Big Data, Cloud, etc all
provide data to physical system
– AI and Machine Learning turn this into
Rudimentary Decisions
• Types of Systems:
– Networked Sensors / Computers
– Cyber Attack
– Self Driving Cars
– Augmented Reality…..
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 10
Potential Military Applications of Cyber-Physical
• Opportunities:
– Human Machine Teaming
– Self-Driving Convoys (Already Here)
– Just in Time Logistics (With 3-D Printing)
– Swarming Systems (Intelligence, Potentially
Attack)
• Threats:
– Cyber Attack on a Platform / Vehicle
– Injection of False Information
– Quantity is a Capability …….Swarming Small
Systems
Lockheed-Martin
Automatic Mobility Applique Systems
(AMAS)
Autonomy Will Be Rolled Out in Steps
23 May 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 11
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP
Slide 12
Biology
• Biology and Understanding The Human –
Cognitive System is Exploding
– Engineered Biological Entities (Fuels,
sensors, coatings, etc)
• Engineered Materials
– Affordable Genomics
– Computers that Think Like Humans
• Types of Systems:
– Exoskeletons and Advanced Prosthetics
– Decision Making Software………..
Ray Kurzwell
The Singularity is Here
The DEKA Arm
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP
Slide 13
Potential Military Applications of Biology
• Opportunities:
– Reduced Decision Time
– Enhanced Performance Envelop
– Early Diagnosis of Problems
• Threats:
– Western Ethics Prevent Some
Applications—Others Do Not Feel
Constrained.
– Novel Biological Weapons /DIY
Bioweapons
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 14
Nanotechnology--System Miniaturization
• Microelectronics and MEMS
– Micro-optical Components
– Internet of Things
– Nano fibers
• Types of Systems:
– Micro UAVs (Alone or Swarms)
– Fiber High Powered Lasers
– Micro Sensors
– Electronic Warfare Systems with Greater Frequency Range and Pulse Agility
– Small Accelerometers…...
PROX Dynamics Black Hornet
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 15
Potential Military Applications of Miniaturization
• Opportunities:
– Smaller is Survivable
– Enhanced Surveillance
– Untether from GPS
– Advanced Protective Systems
• Threats:
– Defeating Small Swarm
– Hiding May Be Harder—Ubiquitus
Surveillance
Lockheed-Martin
Automatic Mobility Applique Systems
(AMAS)
• Number of People Needed to Accomplish Task
• Size of System Needed to Accomplish Task
• Ability to Network Systems
• Methods of Projecting Power / Energy
• Cyber and Electronic Warfare Importance
Mega Trend Implications for Future Armed Forces
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 16
• Non Technological – Prepare For Urban Operations
• Technological – Cyber Will Play Major Role
• Both Denial of Service and Data Uncertainty
– With AI Research, Decisions will Speed Up, Without it, Overwhelming Data Will Slow
Decisions
– Internet of Things -- Harder to Hide
– Miniaturized System
• System – Must Break Cost – Growth Curve
• Quantity has a Quality
– Except for Exotics: Hypersonic Weapons, Directed Energy
Mega Trend Implications for Future Armed Forces
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 17
• Small Satellite Constellations
• Laser and Pulsed Microwave Weapons Systems
• Manned / Unmanned Teams
– Urban Environments
– Air Operations
– Ground Logistics
• Three – Dimension Printable Logistics Trains
• Secure, Unbreakable Communications
Systems the Convergence May Spur
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 18
• Current Military Satellites Are
Fragile, Easy to Defeat
• Small Sat Constellations
– Easier Access to Space
– Capability More Resilient
– There Will Be More Nations In
Space
– May Be Commercially Based
Small Satellite Constellations
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 19
World View Satellite .3m Resolution
• After Years of Promise, Prototypes Finally Being Fielded
• In the United States
– NAVY – Laser Weapons System (LAWS)
– Army – High Energy Laser Mobile Demonstrator
– Air Force -- Current Military Satellites Are Fragile, Easy to Defeat
• All Three Prototypes Work, Affordability Being Worked
• China, Russia Also Have Extensive Directed Energy Programs
Directed Energy
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 20
• The Hardest Thing to Prepare For Are
The “Black Swans”
– The Event is Unpredictable
– The Event Has Widespread Ramifications
– After the Event Occurred, People Will
Assert it Was Predictable
• Examples
– The Internet, Personal Computer,
Dissolution of the Soviet Union, Sept 11
Terror Attacks
But What Are The Black Swans
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 21
• I Contend We Do Not Know the Extent of Military Potential of Swarming, Autonomous or Semi-Autonomous Drones
• But I Contend This Capability, As Much As Others, Could Change The Way We Fight
• Strong Convergence of Cyber-Physical and Nanotechnology
• Conducted Oct 2016 at China Lake Naval Air Station
Black Swan 1 – Swarming Drones
23 May 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 22
Neither Good nor Bad – It is Today’s Reality
Perdix Test
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 23
Black Swan II– Quantum Sensing and Science
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 24
• Aug 22, 2017 Report Suggests That
China Has Developed an Array of
Quantum Sensors That Can Detect
Submarines at Many Kilometers
– Based on Detection of Magnetic
Fields and Quantum Interferometry
– If True, the Sanctuary of Undersea
Could Soon be Gone
• Other Quantum Devices Could Make
GPS Obsolete
• Finally, Secure, Unbreakable Comms
Possible in Quantum Communications
QS Communication
• Maintain Active Network of > 5,000(+) Scientists
• Support 7 Technical Panels & Group
• Manage > 250 Collaborative S&T Activities per year
• Manage Outreach to > 500,000 Scientists
The CSO “The Collaborative Production Engine of the STO”
NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 25 21 September 2017
Total Number of Activities per Year All Panels/Group Combined
June 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to all Partners Slide 26
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Task Groups New TG's Symposia Spec. Meetings Workshops Lecture Series VKI- LS
Tech. Courses AGARDographs Spec. Teams Mil. App. Studies LTSS CDT
Following Summer 2017
Silence Procedure
Conclusion
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 27
• Predicting the Future is Hard
• Must Maintain Insight Into Shifting Areas
(Technical, Industrial)
• Simultaneous Rapid Change In Cyber-Physical,
Biology, Nanotechnology Makes Future Even
More Uncertain
• There Are Potential Black Swans on the Horizon
Back Ups
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 28
Black Swan I – Swarming Drones
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 29
• I Contend We Do Not Know the Extent
of Military Potential of Swarming,
Autonomous or Semi-Autonomous
Drones
• But I Contend This Capability, As Much
As Others, Could Change The Way We
Fight
• Strong Convergence of Cyber-Physical
and Nanotechnology
Video of swarming drones
You can see at
https://www.youtube.com/
watch?v=ndFKUKHfuM0
• Applied Vehicle Technology (AVT)
• Human Factors and Medicine (HFM)
• Information Sciences Technology (IST)
• Modeling and Simulation Group (MSG)
• System Analysis and Studies (SAS)
• System Concepts and Integration (SCI)
• Sensors and Electronics Technology (SET)
Technical Panels and Group
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 30
Back Up
System MegaTrend “Augustine’s Laws”
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 31
• Norm Augustine’s XVI Law
– “By 2054, The Entire (United States) Defense Budget Will By 1 Aircraft”
– Stated in 1984 by Norm Augustine, Former CEO of Martin-Marietta and President of Lockheed Martin
• Without Addressing Cost Curve, Future Systems Will Be Unaffordable; Have to Break Current Trend
• Possible Solutions:
– Small Systems
– Open Systems Architectures
• New Russian Systems Would Stress NATO Capabilities; For Example (Not All Inclusive)
– S-400 Triumph – Passive Radar, Long-Range SAM
– Iskander-M – 500km Range Mobile Ballistic Missile
– Su-57 (PAK-FA) – Fifth Generation Fighter
– Ultra-Quiet Submarines (Yasen, Borei Class)
– Zircon – Developmental Hypersonic Missile
– Cyber and EW – Very Advanced
Russian Military Modernization
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 32
NATO NATIONS MUST CONTINUE
DEVELOPING NEW CAPABILITIES
33
Disruptive Technology A Case Study
• Digital Equipment Corporation:
– 1957 -- Founded
– 1960 -- Programmable Data Processor 1 (PDP-1) Introduced
• World’s First Minicomputer
• 10% cost of Mainframe Computers
– 1965 -- PDP-8 Rolled-out; World’s #1 Selling Computer
– 1970’s – 1990—DEC #2 International Computer Sales
– 1990 -- 120,000 Employees; Revenues $14B
– 1998 – Company Bought by Compaq—and Dead
“It was the sudden demise of DEC that first drew my attention. How
could a company, once described by Business Week as a freight train
that obliterates all competitors, fall so precipitously?” Interview with
Clayton Christensen, Harvard Business School on Line, April 1999
34
Technology Develops Outpaces Traditional Acquisition
“Moore’s Law” Computing doubles every 18 months
“Fiber Law” Communication capacity doubles every 9 months
“Storage Law” Storage doubles every 12 months
Technology growth is non-linear…
Acquisition path has been linear
Defense Acquisition Pace
F-22 Milestone I: Oct 86 IOC: Dec 05*
Comanche Milestone I: Jun 89 IOC: Sep 09
* Computers at IOC are 2,000 X faster, hold 130,000 X bits
of information than they did at MS I
Basic Research Enables Progress
40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s
• Nuclear weapons
• Radar
• Proximity fuse
• Sonar
• Jet engine
• LORAN
• Digital computer
• ICBM
• Transistor
• Laser technology
• Nuclear propulsion
• Digital comm.
• Satellite comm.
• Integrated circuits
• Phased-array radar
• Defense networks
• Airborne surv.
• MIRV
• Airborne GMTI/SAR
• Stealth
• Strategic CMs
• IR search and track
• Space track network
• C2 networks
• GPS
• UAVs
• Night vision
• Personal computing
• Counter-stealth
• BMD hit-to-kill
• Wideband networks
• Web protocols
• Precision munitions
• Solid state radar
• Advanced robotics
• Speech recognition
• GIG
• Armed UAVs
• Optical SATCOM
• Data mining
• Advanced seekers
• Decision support
Basic Research Program • 6 High Priority S&T areas for DoD
• Metamaterials and Plasmonics
• Quantum Information Science
• Cognitive Neuroscience
• Nanoscience and Nanoengineering
• Synthetic Biology
• Understanding Human and Social Behavior
• Within the broader set of sciences critical
to DoD
Understanding and creating the cutting edge
Trends in basic research are identified and judged through a variety of
interactions, including: • Publications, university site visits, conference attendance
• Future Directions Workshops (identifying emerging areas for investment and International
Centers of Excellence for collaborative opportunities)
• Engage expert panels (JASONs, National Academy of Sciences, etc…)
Metamaterials and Plasmonics
• Enabled capabilities • Nanoscale Subsurface Spectroscopy • Plasmon-enhanced Detectors &
Imagers • Phased Antenna Arrays • Microvascular Autonomic Composites • Novel Coatings (ex. Ice free, water
repellent)
Engineered design of basic properties
and transport of energy/information in
materials & structures
• Select breakthroughs
• Sub-wavelength Elements, Plasmonics,
Photonic Crystals, Metamaterials
• Self-sensing & Self-healing Materials
• Biologically Inspired Structures
• Computational & Fast-algorithm Tools
• Key research challenges
• Efficiently convert optical radiation into
localized energy, and vice versa.
• Enhancing local photophysical processes
• Precise assembly & fabrication of
hierarchical 3-D photonic
• Integrating plasmonics with nanostructured
semiconductor devices
Quantum Information Science Manipulate and control nature down to the precision of a single quantum
• Enabled capabilities • Quantum computing: solving currently intractable
problems • Quantum communication: practical ultra-secure
communication • Quantum simulation: developing new classes of
materials for new applications • Quantum sensing, metrology and imaging:
sensitivity/precision/resolution beyond best possible with classical means
• Key research challenges • Maintaining quantum coherence over time • Discovering new algorithms that fully exploit QIS
for additional new capabilities • New techniques to control quantum systems • New materials, fabrication for long coherence time
• Select breakthroughs • Quantum factorization algorithm
(Shor 1995): solve intractable
problems
• Quantum gas microscope
(Greiner 2010): observation of an
ensemble of atoms in a lattice with
down to a single atom resolution
Cognitive Neuroscience More deeply understand and more fully exploit the fundamental
mechanisms of the brain
• Enabled capabilities • Deeper understanding of human information
processing, learning and decision making • Direct mental control of engineered systems • Better design of information displays and
system controls • Compensation for performance under stress • Ameliorate/ prevent PTSD and TBI
• Key research challenges • Solving the inverse problem of predicting
human behavior from brain signals • Translating clinical measurements & analyses
to uninjured personnel • Developing models incorporating individual
brain variability
• Select breakthroughs • Advances in brain imaging; e.g.
fMRI, Diffusion Tensor Imaging,
and digital EEG
• Advances in correlation of brain-
structure to function
• Massively parallel computation
enabling brain signal analysis
Map of brain interconnectivity as measured
by Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI)
Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Discover and exploit unique phenomena at nanometer dimensions to enable novel
applications
• Enabled capabilities
• Electronics & Sensing: Multi-spectral focal plane arrays, ubiquitous embedded sensors, curvilinear electronics, ultra-low voltage devices
• Power and Energy: Fuel-cells, portable electronics, mobile power, thermoelectrics
• Coatings: Photoactive, self-cleaning films
• Key research challenges
• Low defect density graphene over large areas
• Production and reproducibility of single chirality nanotubes and bilayers of graphene, each layer individually biased to form new condensed state
Graphene monolayer
Graphene Band structure with Dirac points
Dirac points
• Select breakthroughs • Nano-particle coating & functionalization
• Catalysts for energy-harvesting
• Graphene and carbon nanotubes
Synthetic Biology
The promise of engineered biology for a multitude of
applications
• Enabled capabilities • Bio-production including bio-fuels
• Bio-sensors
• Tissue regeneration
• New and faster ways to produce vaccines
• Algae-based food production
• Clean water as a bio-based capability • Key research challenges
• Modeling and simulation to address
complexity of pathways
• Automation of trials
• Selection of appropriate host cell
compatible with synthetic genome
• Regulation and societal acceptance
• Select breakthroughs
A fundamental understanding and
predictive capability of human behavior
dynamics from individuals to societies
• Enabled capabilities • Predictive models supporting strategic,
operational, and tactical decision making and
planning
• Real time cultural situational awareness
• Immersive training and mission rehearsal
• Cross cultural coalition building
• Key research challenges • Conflicting theories
• Data management and fusion
• Mathematical complexity
• Validation of models
• Select breakthroughs • Early success of simple models
• Success of social network analysis
• Prediction of crowd tipping points
Understanding Human Behavior
DoD Policy on Fundamental Research
2010 Carter Memorandum on Fundamental Research (FR)
• “DoD will place no other restrictions on the conduct or reporting
of unclassified fundamental research, except as otherwise required
by applicable federal statutes, regulations, or executive orders.”
• Expanded the protections stated in the 2008 Young memo:
• FR may be supported by non-6.1 or 6.2 funds on campus
• FR not subject to flowdown restrictions inherited from the
parent contract
DFARS Modification of 7000 Clause (2013)
• Formalized Carter memo guidance into official contracting regulations (DFARS)
• Language states that contractors cannot release information without permission
(including publication)
• New exception:
“unless – (3) The information results from or arises during the performance of a
project that has been scoped and negotiated by the contracting activity… and
determined… to be fundamental research in accordance with [NSDD 189 and the
Carter memo].”
FY 14 Topic Areas
Belief Formation and Movements for Change
Models of Societal Resilience and Instability
Power and Escalation
Emerging Topics
Inform DoD
understanding of
Terrorism,
Revolutions
Stability Ops,
Arab Spring 2.0
China, Cyber,
Emerging powers
Some projects funded:
• Mapping the Diffusion and Influence of
Counter-radical Muslim Discourse
• Deterring Complex Threats: Asymmetry,
Interdependence, and Multi-polarity
• Natural Resources and Armed Conflict
• Dynamics of Sacred Values and Social
Responsibilities
• Quantifying Structural Transformation in China
• Multi-source Assessments of State Stability
from Social and Traditional Media
The Minerva Research Initiative • Goal: Build fundamental understanding of the social, cultural, and historical forces that shape regions of the world of strategic importance • Defense social science basic research uses rigorous methodology to investigate the
why and how, versus who or what, of phenomena such as influence, escalation, and resilience
• Topics are updated annually to target knowledge gaps most critical for the warfighter, the force planner, and national security policy development
Cloud Computing
A New Reality: Global Dimensions Affect DoD S&T
Pace of Technology
Rise of the Commons
Expanding Global Knowledge Base
Information Agility
Mass Collaboration
Economic and S&T Mega-Trends
Technology Commercialization
Black Swan Syndrome
Pace of Technology Technology Adoption Timeline (1900-2005)
It took 23 years to go from
modeling germanium
semiconductor properties
to a commercial product
The carbon nanotube was
discovered in 1991; recognized
as an excellent source of field-
emitting electrons in 1995, and
commercialized in 2000
The Economist, Feb. 9, 2008
The Pace of Technology
Development and Market
Availability is Exceeding
the Pace of Acquisition
~45 Year Cycle ~20 Year Cycle
Rise of the Commons
Military Operations Increasingly Depend on Being Able to Operate
in Places “No One Owns” – The Enablers
Oceans
Electronic Warfare
Ubiquitous Data
Cyber Space
Engineering Challenges • Lay solid foundations…create opportunities
• Envision multiple futures…enable flexible choices
• Design and build systems with focus on lifecycle cost
• Protect our critical defense “intellectual property”
• Focus on “3 Ps” of the DoD Engineering Enterprise: Policy, Practice and, most importantly, People
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP Slide 49
Technology Megatrends
• Three Simultaneous Technology
Disruptions
– Information: Cyber-Physical
– Biology: Shift to Cognitive
– Nano: Systems Shrink
21 September 2017 NATO UNCLASSIFIED Releasable to EOP
Slide 50
Biology
• Biology and Understanding The Human –
Cognitive System is Exploding
– Engineered Biological Forms
– Affordable Genomics
– Computers that Think Like Humans
• Types of Systems:
– Exoskeletons and Advanced Prostetics
– ………..
Ray Kurzwell
The Singularity is Here
The DEKA Arm