Unmanned Systems Beyond Iraq:What is the Next Step for this Booming Industry?
Lindsay Voss, Industry Analyst
Aerospace and Defense
September 24, 2008
Focus Points
• Market Overview
• Market Attractiveness
• Technology Roadmap
• Market Drivers, Restraints & Trends
• Spending Overview
• Competitive Overview
• Conclusions
Source: U.S. Air Force Source: U.S. Navy Source: U.S. Air ForceSource: U.S. Navy Source: U.S. Navy
Market Overview
Coverage includes Unmanned Air, Ground, and Maritime SystemsCoverage includes Unmanned Air, Ground, and Maritime Systems
Violence in Iraq, Afghanistan and around the world has triggereViolence in Iraq, Afghanistan and around the world has triggered staggering d staggering
growth in the unmanned systems marketgrowth in the unmanned systems market
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) represent the largest market segmeUnmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) represent the largest market segment and the nt and the
most mature technologymost mature technology
The Department of Defense (DoD) purchases 95 percent of unmannedThe Department of Defense (DoD) purchases 95 percent of unmanned systems systems
sold in the U.S. sold in the U.S.
The unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) market segment is growing in rThe unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) market segment is growing in response to esponse to
the threat if improvised explosive devices (IEDs)the threat if improvised explosive devices (IEDs)
The DoD is the largest UGV customer, however law enforcement is The DoD is the largest UGV customer, however law enforcement is an expanding an expanding
market space market space
Unmanned Underwater and Surface vehicles comprise the maritime mUnmanned Underwater and Surface vehicles comprise the maritime market arket
segmentsegment
Unmanned maritime systems (UMS) make up the smallest markets andUnmanned maritime systems (UMS) make up the smallest markets and are the are the
least mature technologiesleast mature technologies
The UMS market segment has the least number of entrenched competThe UMS market segment has the least number of entrenched competitors and is itors and is
expected to see the largest amount of growthexpected to see the largest amount of growth
Technology Roadmap2007
2015
2025 2030
Unmanned Aerial Systems
Unmanned Ground Vehicles
Unmanned Surface Vehicles
Unmanned Underwater
Vehicles
ISR Missions
DoD Tactical Strike
Meteorological Research
Border Surveillance
Limited Civil Use
SIGINT Collection
SEAD Role
Communications Relay
Maritime Patrol
Civil Use
CBRN Detection
Limited Commercial Use
Aerial Refueling
Battle Management
Penetrating Strike
Increased Civil Use
Combat Missions
Medical Evacuation
Airlift
Commercial Use
Mine Clearance
Mine Neutralization
EOD
IED Disruption
CBRN Detection
ISR Roles
Perimeter Security
Weaponization
Combined Arms
Engagement
Maritime Surveillance
Maritime Interdiction
Anti-Submarine Warfare
Mine Counter Measure
Surface Warfare
Reconnaissance
Inspection
Mine Neutralization
Autonomous Mapping
Mine Counter measures
Oceanography
Communications
ISR Mission
Armed ASW
Strike Capability
Ship-deployed Comms
Submarine Tracking
Information Operations
Strike Capability
Aerial Refueling
Battle Management
Penetrating Strike
Civil Use
Combat Missions
Medical Evacuation
Airlift
Commercial Use
Market Attractiveness Table
This table directly correlates with the market attractiveness grid on slide 5. Market attractiveness is based on concentration of
market competition, market supplier capacity, presence of dominant participants, market revenue potential, and rate of market
growth between 2008 and 2016. On the market attractiveness grid on the following slide the large oval represents the market
in 2007 while the small oval is representative of the market in 2016.
NoNoLowLowLowLowLowLowFragmentedFragmentedUAS CivilUAS Civil
LowLow
LowLow
MediumMedium
LowLow
HighHigh
Revenue Revenue
PotentialPotential
HighHigh
HighHigh
MediumMedium
LowLow
MediumMedium
Rate of Rate of
Market Market
GrowthGrowth
YesYesHighHighHighly Highly
concentratedconcentrated
UAS DoD Market UAS DoD Market
Dominant Dominant
ParticipantsParticipants
Market Supplier Market Supplier
CapacityCapacity
Market Market
ConcentrationConcentration
NoNoLowLowFragmentedFragmentedUAS Commercial UAS Commercial
NoNoHighHighFragmentedFragmentedUSV Market USV Market
YesYesHighHighMildly Mildly
concentratedconcentrated
UUV Market UUV Market
YesYesHighHighMildly Mildly
ConcentratedConcentrated
UGV Market UGV Market
Market Attractiveness Grid R
even
ue
Att
racti
ven
ess
High
Low
Significant Barriers
Open Market
Market Openness
Most Attractive Markets
Most Attractive
Attractive
Least Attractive
DoD UASDoD UASDoD UAS
Civil UASCivil UASCivil UAS
USV MarketUSV MarketUSV Market
UUV MarketUUV MarketUUV Market
UAV
Commercial
UAV UAV
CommercialCommercial
UGV MarketUGV MarketUGV Market
SubsystemsSubsystemsSubsystems
Represents the Commercial UAS market if regulations are lifted
Represents the Commercial UAS market if regulations don’t change
Represents the Civil UAS Market if regulations are lifted
Represents the Civil UAS Market if regulations are unchanged
Market Drivers and RestraintsR
estr
ain
tsD
rivers
Strong
Med
Weak
Strong
Med
Weak
Demand for timely,
persistent ISR
capabilities drives
UAS market growth
System interoperability
is creating
opportunities
Entrenched
competition for UAS
and UGVs
Defense budget
constraints result in
program cutbacks
Unmanned systems
have liability issues
resulting in few
commercial
opportunities
Slowness in decision
making by the U.S.
military and other
government agencies
restrains market
growth
IED threats are driving
system procurement
Maturing technologies
drive market growth
Market Trends
Weak Medium Strong
Mark
et T
rends
UAS and UGV companies vying for position in the unmanned maritime systems market segment
Increased use of unmanned systems by federal non-DoD entities for both research and security applications
Length of arrows indicate impact of the challenge
New R&D programs for the DoD
Unmanned systems teaming with other unmanned systems and manned platforms
Spending Overview
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
Sp
en
din
g (
$ M
illio
n)
O&M 136.1 170.6 167.0 195.4 195.3 232.1 244.2 251.5 270.2 297.7
Procurement 703.0 709.8 1,227.0 1,309.5 1,039.1 827.0 647.1 538.3 468.5 468.9
RDT&E 1,360.6 1,715.8 1,922.4 1,996.9 1,878.8 1,865.71,751.0 1,661.7 1,712.6 1,704.9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.0
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
Sp
en
din
g (
$ M
illio
n)
U.S. Navy 289.8 507.3 970.1 1,064.3 916.3 763.5 570.2 497.2 471.5 502.9
U.S. Army 591.7 425.8 502.1 828.6 696.9 632.3 579.9 628.7 640.1 622.7
U.S. Air Force 1,318.21,663.11,844.21,608.91,500.01,529.01,492.21,325.61,339.71,345.9
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DoD Services UAS Spending Forecasts
UAS Procurement, RDT&E, O&M
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
Spendin
g (
$ M
illio
n)
USCG 0.0 1.0 5.3 3.3 2.1 6.9 11.5 9.0 15.7 20.8
DTRA 1.1 3.0 0.8 2.5 5.8 4.3 2.1 0.9 1.5 2.7
Other 1.5 2.3 3.7 4.8 5.5 10.1 17.8 20.2 22.5 25.7
NASA 3.2 4.1 6.7 7.7 5.3 6.9 10.1 18.0 25.6 19.1
USSOCOM 28.2 19.5 31.4 37.8 24.6 29.0 36.9 45.6 37.8 39.0
DARPA 15.7 27.8 33.2 18.3 27.9 33.9 25.5 39.0 26.7 20.6
CBP 5.6 27.2 10.1 22.2 35.6 18.7 15.5 28.6 39.0 41.6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Other Federal UAS Spending
Spending Overview
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
Spendin
g (
$ M
illio
n)
DoD RDT&E 46.7 70.5 77.3 60.5 73.3 61.9 62.9 59.8 62.3 66.3
DoD Procurement 278.7 217.7 175.5 191.2 199.3 211.3 222.0 223.9 209.1 224.8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
Spendin
g (
$ M
illio
n)
DoD Spending 325.4 288.2 252.8 251.7 272.6 273.2 284.9 283.7 271.4 291.1
Civil Spending 55.4 57.9 65.8 60.8 69.0 73.6 80.8 89.6 99.7 105.7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DoD UGV Spending Forecasts
DoD and Civil UGV Spending Forecasts
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Spendin
g ($ M
illion)
Spending 16.9 19.2 20.8 29.0 24.5 31.8 46.2 53.0 68.4 78.3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
Sp
en
din
g (
$ M
illio
n)
Spending 10.3 11.9 12.1 14.2 15.9 21.6 24.9 27.2 33.4 34.2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DoD UUV Spending Forecasts
DoD USV Spending Forecasts
U.S. Navy: 84.3%
NOAA: 4.6%
Research: 6.0%
Commercial:3.0%
Other: 2.1%
End-User Overview
U.S. Navy: 58.4%
U.S. Army: 36.7%
U.S. Air Force: 4.5%
Other: 0.4%
U.S. Air Force:57.5%
U.S. Army: 36.1%
U.S. Navy: 5.6%
Other: 0.8%
The following pie-charts display end-user market share for
the UAS, UGV, and UMV market segments. Additional users
of unmanned systems within the United States include the
Department of Justice (DOJ), Central Intelligence Agency
(CIA), Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Defense
Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Special Operations
Command, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National
Aeronautics and Space Administration, Research Entities,
and Law Enforcement Agencies
2007 UMS End-Users
2007 UGV End-Users
2007 UAS End-Users
Foster-Miller: 60.4%
iRobot Corporation: 23.4%
DOK-ing: 1.2%
General Dynamics RoboticSystems: 3.3%Hydrema: 1.1%
Northrop Grumman: 4.2%
BAE Systems: 1.7%
Lockheed Martin: 2.5%
Other: 2.2%
Company Market Share Overview
Northrop Grumman: 42.8%
General Atomics: 20.3%
AAI Corporation: 19.8%
Aerovironment, Inc.: 8.2%
Aurora Flight Sciences: 1.4%
Boeing/Insitu: 2.7%
Other: 4.8%
Bluefin Robotics: 37.0%
Hydroid LLC.: 30.7%
Foster-Miller Inc.: 10.6%
Boeing: 6.2%
ARINC Engineering:
4.4%
Lockheed Martin: 2.1%
Other: 9.0%
EDO Corporation (ITT): 43.3%
General Dynamics Robotic
Systems: 34.3%
Oregon Iron Works: 9.0%
Other: 4.6%
Maritime Applied Physics
Corp.: 4.2%
Accurate Automation: 2.0%
Robotic Marine Systems, LLC.:
1.7%
Sea Robotics Inc.: 0.9%
2007 UAS Company Market Share
2007 USV Company Market Share 2007 UUV Company Market Share 2007
2007 UGV Company Market Share
Conclusions
The U.S. Unmanned Systems market continues to increase drasticalThe U.S. Unmanned Systems market continues to increase drastically with new technologies and ly with new technologies and
new applicationsnew applications
Competition is becoming tighter with less opportunity for new paCompetition is becoming tighter with less opportunity for new participants across all segments rticipants across all segments
Subsystems are the hot new market: Sensors, Command and Control,Subsystems are the hot new market: Sensors, Command and Control, Communications, GuidanceCommunications, Guidance
Civil and Commercial markets are an opportunity in the longCivil and Commercial markets are an opportunity in the long--termterm
The U.S. Unmanned Systems market as a whole is positioned to seeThe U.S. Unmanned Systems market as a whole is positioned to see strong future growthstrong future growth
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