Forests, Resources for the Future A French Perspective
CARNUS JEAN-MICHEL INRA Bordeaux Aquitaine Stockholm, 25 octobre 2013
.02 BORDEAUX RESEARCH CENTRE
BORDEAUX
.03
OUTLINE
CONTEXT Climate change French forestry Impacts of climate change
REGIONAL CASE STUDY past present future
FUTURE PERSPECTIVES challenges scenarios policies
« Thinking globally, acting locally » (Penser lobal, agir local, Jacques Ellul)
CONTEXT global > national
_01
.04
.05
Forests and Climate Change Global context
• rapid climatic change is a contemporary reality (5th IPCC report 2013 ..)
• major role of forests in carbon cycles and in influencing earth systems (UNFCCC, CBD, UNCCD, 2008)
• sensitivity and vulnerability of forestry sector to CC issues: • increasing biotic and abiotic damages • variations in productivity (+/-) • socio-economic vulnerabilities
• opportunities for forest & wood sector to contribute to low carbon bioeconomies
• deforestation, forest degradation and GHG emissions (# 20%) rapid climate change and global warming are major issues for future forests and a key
theme in science and policy development at national & international levels (Forestry and Climate Change, 2008, OECD; IUFRO TF 2010-2014)
.06
Forestry and Climate Change Global context
Forest carbon sequestration potential # 25 % GHG emissions
IPCC 2007: Rapid climate change has started since 20 years - comparisons of observed temperature data (dark line) with results from two simulations (without GHG emissions (blue) and with GHG (pink))
.07
Forestry and Climate Change Global context
FAST INCREASING GHG EMISSIONS • Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)
• Acceleration in global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions
– 2012 largest annual growth on record
• Above A 1 IPCC scenario
• Increasing N2O and CH4 emissions (25 x greater warming potential* than CO2
Source: Global Carbon Project, 2011
*for a 100 year time-horizon (it’s 77 x greater for a 20 year horizon)
.08
Forestry and Climate Change Global context
Forest carbon sequestration potential # 25 % GHG emissions
high resolution - tree species map of European forests
planted forests
mountain forests
Mediterranean forests
atlantic/continental lowland forests
a wide range of climatic and ecological conditions (N-S and Atlantic-continental transitions ..and the largest “European” tropical forest)
a long tradition of silviculture and multi-functionality with increasing contrasts in management regimes
major threats due to climate change predicted for S and SW- areas
French Forests
3 rd largest forest area in EU (16 Mha) dominant private ownership (75%) fragmented forest property (3,4 M owners) diversity of species and habitats multiple products and ecosystem services high wood and biomass production potential heterogeneity of wood-based industries low industrial valorisation wood products: 2nd largest deficit in trade
balance Importance of WBI for rural employment
French Forest-based Sector
.012
1. Climatic evolution (average temperature rise last century - +0,7
to 1,1 °C in France)
2. Vegetation phenological changes (longer growing season, earlier bud formation, leaf colouring...)
3. Forest productivity changes in combination with other factors
4. Changes in vegetation distribution (spatial, altitudinal; + 150 m for Aleppo pines in SE France last century..)
5. Biotic and abiotic risks
Observed impacts Impacts of CC on French forests
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2Growth index
Beech2
Beech 1 Oak1
Oak 4
(Bontemps, Dhote, 2009)
Increasing trends with depression cycles (droughts,..) Differences in species responses Regional effects (climate, N deposition … )
Oak 1 Oak 4
Beech 2
Beech1
Retrospective assessment of tree growth
Evolution of growth index for average stands of Aleppo pine (around 400 m of altitude in pink circles and red line) and Scots pine (around 1100 m of altitude, in blue diamonds and curve) during the 20th century.(Vennetier, 2005)
Retrospective assessment of tree growth Growth index
2000 2050 2100
▆▆ G1 : Alpine ▆▆ G6 : Chestnut ▆▆ G2 : Sub Alpine ▆▆ G7 : Maritime pine ▆▆ G3 : Fir ▆▆ G8 : Green oak ▆▆ G4 : Beech
Changes in distribution of tree species groups
Impact of climate change on biotic risks Pine processionary moth
Impacts of climate change on abiotic risks Forest fires: increase of sensitivity to summer fires in 2040 (Rapport interministériel, 2010)
Maps of sensitivity to forest fires: 1989-2008 et à l’horizon 2040
Sensitivity of South-West in 2040 = sensitivity of South-East today
Source : rapport de la mission interministérielle « Changement climatique et extension des zones sensibles aux feux de forêt », 2010
Source EFI ATLANTIC
Gardiner et al. 2010
Estimated areas affected by
most damaging storms in Europe
(1950-2010)
REGIONAL CASE STUDY _02
.019
French Regional Case Study
.021
Regional forest-based sector
1,8 Mha (44 % land use)
importance of forest-based sector
32000 people employed
3,5 billion € annual revenue (# wine sector)
25 % national wood production (timber, packaging, panelling, pulp)
100 % national kraft pulp production
first region for barrel production
1 M ha of certified forests
.022
.023
Landes of Gascony Forest Historical development
.024
Landes of Gascony Forest Historical development
Productivity increase of 5 to10 m3 /ha-yr in 50 yrs
1 2
3
4
5
0 : breeding & plant production 1 : soil preparation 2 : planting and P fertilisation 3 : thinning and vegetation control 4 : thinnings and vegetation control 5 : clear cut + inter rotation
année 0 : fertilisation ploughing planting
années 2-7: thinning
années 5-10 : thinning
années 10-35: commercial thinnings
années 40-50 : clear cut
Landes of Gascony Forest Standard management regime
DECEMBRE 1999 STORM -Aquitaine JANUARY 2009 STORM
FUTURE PERSPECTIVES _03
.027
Source: CRPF Aquitaine
Regional foresight study
Context low fertility area and traditional long rotation (> 40 yrs) for maritime pine production cycle strong complementarities between local industries for wood resource sharing mainly private ownership (>90%)
Current issues and threats high vulnerability of monospecific planted forest to climatic events and biotic threats increasing tensions on wood resources uncertainties about private owners strategies after storms SFM and Intensification of management for biomass production
Trends & opportunities development of multiple functions for forests and diversification of management regimes climate change awareness and volontary carbon markets increasing demands for biomass for energy development of regional forest policies
Maritime Pine attacked by bark beetle (Source: Sud-Ouest)
What can be the scenarios for Landes of Gascony Forest in 2050 ? (Mora, 2013)
Regional impacts of climate change Droughts: increase of average temperatures, decrease of annual rainfall, increase of water deficit (Climator, 2010 & Jouzel, 2011)
Scenario A1B 2020-2050 2070-2100
Temperatures +1,44 °C +2,83°C
Mean Rainfall -73 to -146 mm -182 to -219 mm
Evolution of maritime pine productivity in France based on GRAECO model and regionalisation method type tps, under scenario climatique A1B
Impacts on productivity of maritime pine: – 20 to 40 % after 2050 (Climator, 2010)
3 climatic scenarios considered in Climator (Source Bosc, 2011)
Source Bosc, 2011
INTENSITY OF CLIMATIC SCENARIO
Diffuse urbanization around metropolis and along the coast
Attractivity of rural and coastal areas
Densification of metropolitan areas and urban hospitality
Network of cities and market towns
1. Mobilities and Urbanization
2. Dynamics of economic activities
3. Wood chain
4. Forests
5. Agriculture and agro-industries
6. Natural resources management and land-use planning
7. Governance and territorial organisations
Residential economy with migrant and alternating workforce
Residential attractivity of rural-coastal areas, economic engine for innovation
low density areas dedicated to productive activities
Territories combining residential economy and productive activities
concentration of activities around biomass and cellulose production for energy&chemistry sectors
creation of added-value through innovative SMEs and reorganisation of the wood sector
forest and wood sector serving the euroregion for energy, construction, and ecosystem services
Diversification of wood products for local needs and exports
Intensive forest management alternatives for dendrobiomass production
adaptation and protection of maritime pine forests with broadleaves in edges and islands
forest planning with segregation of functions for ecosystem services, wood production and recreation
Patchwork of diversified forests and landscapes with open areas
Concentration of agricultural enterprises and agro-ressources industries
Interdependance of agriculture and industries for development of quality
Agriculture dedicated to euroregion needs (energy, food)
Territorial agricultural systems and diversified value chains
artificialization of soils and competing uses of natural resources
natural and cultural heritage in coastal and rural areas
environmental zoning for resource protection and land-use planning
integrated ecosystem management and land-use planning
Metropolitan power served by their hinterlands
Public/private partnership and contract between territories
Euro-region planification in synergy with metropolis
Territorial fora and regional coordination
REGIONAL SCENARIOS Opportunities and laissez-faire
Attractivity and quality
Grand Euroregion and self-sufficiency
Patchwork and diversity
hypothesis of evolution – 2050 SCENARIOS System components
Scenario 1 : Opportunities and « laissez-faire » pursuit of peri-urbanisation and lack of coordination between actors
Metropolitan pole
Urbanization spread around metropolis
Scattered coastal urbanization
Mobilisation of bioresources
Tensions on land resources
Concentration of biomass industries
Export of products on international markets
Dendrobiomass production forests
FORESTS & FORESTRY SECTOR in SCENARIO 1 Forests: intensive forest management regimes for dendrobiomass production (coppice systems, new tree species..) – land-use changes and deforestation Forest-Wood chain : - multinational companies (energy, chemistry) - concentration of activities around biomass and cellulose production and processing - disappearance of small forest owners
Scenario 2 : Attractivity and quality Attractivity of coastal territories and quality of products and landscapes
metropolitan area
coastal-rural system
SME and high added-value industries
Forests for production of high-quality wood
Demographic and economic attractivity
FORESTS & FORESTRY SECTOR in SCENARIO 2 Forests: adaptation and protection of maritime pine stands with broadleaves in edges and islands – forests remain the dominant land-use Forest-Wood chain : -creation of added-value through innovative SMEs -reorganisation of the wood sector with new players -payments for forest carbon credits and recreation services.
Scenario 3 : Grand Euroregion and self-sufficiency Large European Region self-sufficient for food and energy
Processing pole and transport platform
Forests for wood production and ecosystem services
Biomass production areas
metropolitan pole and densely populated crown
Green belt for agriculture and amenities
Axis for flux of people and goods
FORESTS & FORESTRY SECTOR in SCENARIO 3 Forests: Long rotation maritime pine production in remote areas. New Species (Robinia, Eucalyptus…) for biomass production. Mixed forests for recreation closed to the cities Forest-Wood chain: - role of macro-actors: cooperatives, investment funds, international companies…. - processing activities concentrated near transport platform -planification of forest-based activities for the service of the euroregion (energy, construction,..)
Scenario 4 : Patchwork and diversity Mosaic of territories and diversity of forest value chains
metropolitan pole
network of urban centres
territorial forum and cluster of economic activities (industry, agriculture, forests)
FORESTS & FORESTRY SECTOR in SCENARIO 4 Forests: Mixed tree species at landscape scale including maritime pine and broadleaf species. Forests remain dominant land-use in many territories Forest-Wood chain: - territorial forums including forestry component - innovative organisation of forest-wood chain actors - diversification of wood-based products for local needs and exports
.035
Scenarios and Forest Types Forest vulnerability in different scenarios
Scenario 1 : Opportunities and « laissez-faire » Forest type: New Species (Robinia, Eucalyptus…) for biomass production and maritime Pine half dedicated to biomass production Vulnerability : - Low vulnerability to storm - High vulnerability to pests and diseases (easy spreading), fire (continuity of canopies), and droughts (short rotation intensive culture) - Flexibility and capacity for rapid adaptation to climate change
Scenario 2 : Attractivity and quality Forest type: Long rotation maritime Pine production with broadleaves edges and patches for protection against pests and diseases mostly Vulnerability : -High vulnerability to storm (high trees) -Low vulnerability to fire (good fire fighting system) and pests and diseases (broadleaves edges and patches) - Risk of mortalities in case of reccurent droughts
Scenario 3 : Grand Euroregion and self-sufficiency Forest type: Long rotation maritime Pine production in remote areas. New Species (Robinia, Eucalyptus…) for biomass production and maritime Pine half dedicated to biomass production close to transportation networks. Mixed forests closed to the cities Vulnerability : -High vulnerability to storm of further forests and low vulnerability to storm of forests for biomass production. -High vulnerability of all forests to fire (homogeneity and continuity of canopies), to pests and diseases (monoscpecific forests)
Scenario 4 : Patchwork and diversity Forest type: Mixed tree species at landscape scale including maritime pine and broadleafspecies Vulnerability : - dependant on the patchwork of different land-uses. - Forest damages can occur at local scales - diversity of forest types will reduce forest damages at larger scale, whatever hazard is concerned
(Mora et al, 2013, AFS)
.036
1. interministerial national programme 2. new gouvernance mechanisms 3. forest and wood strategic fund 4. wood and biomass mobilisation 5. increased wood in construction 6. forest investment (fiscal, insurance)
Industrial plan for wood-based industries (60000 jobs)
Towards a new national forest policy in France in line with new EU forest strategy
Thank you for your attention