Download - FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Initial idea (FORECOM proposal)• Refine existing models for Swiss Alps by-including long-term forest cover change perspective-knowledge of lands use/climate contribution to past changes
• Apply models to Polish Carpathians-requires comparability of model foundations (data)
in terms of scenarios this implies:-making use of findings from TASK 3-6-emphasising comparative aspects
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Scenarios in existing Swiss land use models
3 Scenarios (old approach) BAU: business as usual, continuation of observed trends
Liberalization: no more support for ag production and conservation-oriented ag
Extensification: increased support for conservation-oriented ag
2 axis (new approach) Low vs. High intervention
Regional vs. Global
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Potential modes of intervention Forest policy: restrictions for deforestation, reforestation efforts Ag Policy: support for ag production/conservation-oriented schemesSpatial Planning
regional to global
Scope of policyScale of driving forces
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Apply CAP scenarios in SwitzerlandApply aspects of Swiss ag and forest policy scenarios to Poland
Comparative approach
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
How to make use of information on long-term forest cover dynamics and drivers of
past changes?• Forest cover-forest age (e.g., stronger protection of old forests, less strict
deforestation regulations or even support to clear recent in-growth)
• Drivers-Adjustment of land-use suitability maps and transition
probabilities based on findings in TASK 6
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Include new aspects in scenarios?• Energy-Lorenas suitability maps (energy production could prevent in-
growth)-changes in wood demand-new infrastucture being built• Tourism-higher urbanization pressure in touristic hotspots-touristic infrastructure (transportation,ski slopes) • Leakage effects
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Brainstorming Scenarios (PL/CH)
Relevant aspects/drivers to be considered in the context of forest cover changes
Other land use categories involved (urbanization/ag catgories)
Is two axes framwork suitable– Adjustments/complementary axes?
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Climate
• Guiding principle: keep it as simple as possible- 2 extreme (low/high) and 1 moderate scenario (use new
RCPs)- Run different well established RCMs
Run logical combinations (argumentation) of land-use and climate scenarios
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Climate scenarios
• Use new CORDEX RCMs based on the IPCC‘s 5th AR GCMs
- http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/- CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate
Downscaling Experiment- The whole globe is split into regions, resolution
is always 50 km- Two regions are interesting for us: 4. Europe/
12. Mediterranean- All simulations based on new RCP scenarios.
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014
Climate scenarios• Proposed procedure- Select few (3-5) RCMs (representing high/mid/low Tave/Prcp)- Select 3 (2.6, 6.0, 8.5) out of 4 RCP scenarios (the low end scenarios
are more similar than the high end, see figure below).- Scale the RCM output for these scenarios to the FORECOM study
areas
Global Mean T predicted in both the 4th and the 5th IPCC Assessment Report.
FORECOM Project meeting May 2014