Download - Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) - Somalia
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Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) - Somalia
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification January – June 2008
Donor Meeting, March 4, 2008Nairobi, Kenya
Agriculture Trends in Local Cereal Production & Prices, Somalia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
Pri
ce p
er K
g (S
LS
H)
Pri
ce p
er K
g (S
oS
H)
Month
Juba Valley (Maize White)
Shabelle Valley (Maize White)
Northeast (Im ported rice)
Sorghum Belt (Sorghum Red)
Central (Im ported Rice)
Northwest ( Im ported rice)
Livestock
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Pri
ce p
er H
ead
of G
oat
(SL
SH
)
Pri
ce p
er H
ead
of G
oat
(SO
SH
)
Month
Sorghum Belt Shabelle Valley
Juba Valley NorthEast
Central NorthWest
0.00
500000.00
1000000.00
1500000.00
2000000.00
2500000.00
3000000.00
3500000.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total Export
5 yr Average(2002 -2006)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
SLS
H p
er U
S D
olla
r
SO
SH
per
US
Dol
lar
Month
Baidoa - SOSH
Bossaso - SOSH
Galkayo - SOSH
Mogadishu - SOSH
Hargesia - SLSH
Markets Trends in Exchange Rates & Commercial Import Prices
Devaluation of SoSh & Factors Affecting Exchange Rate
• Lack of confidence in Somali Shilling• Slowdown of business activities and exports• High cost of imported commodities• Speculation and expectations• New money injected to the markets
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Pri
ce p
er U
nit
(SO
SH
)
Month
PETROL 1 Litre
SUGAR 1 Kg
VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre
RED RICE 1 Kg
SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR
Factors affecting Prices – Deyr ‘07
• Low Supply• Disrupted Markets• Reduction of trade flows• High transportation cost• Low substitute commodity• Trades coalitions• Tariffs and taxations
RISK FACTORS…•Morbidity – esp. diarrhoea• Low immunization coverage• Poor health seeking behaviors• Care practices – breastfeeding, complementary feeding practices• Shelter conditions• Dietary Diversity – mainly energy not nutrient dense
Nutrition
Median prevalence rates of ACUTE malnutrition in South Central (Nov – Dec 2007) (N=15)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
%GAM %SAM
Current Estimated Nutrition Situation Somalia
Estimated Nutrition Situation July 07 Estimated Nutrition Situation Jan 08
Somalia Integrated Food Security Phase Classification:Comparison between Gu ’07 and Deyr ’07/08
Map 2: Post Deyr ’07/08 Projection, January Through June 2008Map 1: Post Gu 2007 Projection, July Through December 2007
Somalia IPC TablePopulations in AFLC & HE, January – June 2008
Assessed and Contingency Population in AFLC and HE
Affected Regions UNDP 2005 Total Population1
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Region
population North 2,341,718 0 0 0 Central Galgaduud 330,057 80,000 15,000 29 Mudug 350,099 35,000 5,000 11 Sub-Total (Central) 680,156 115,000 20,000 20 South Bakool 310,627 90,000 5,000 31 Bay 620,562 25,000 0 4 Gedo 328,378 35,000 10,000 14 Hiraan 329,811 65,000 25,000 27 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 238,877 20,000 0 8 Juba Hoose (Lower) 385,790 60,000 15,000 19 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 514,901 40,000 85,000 24 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 850,651 85,000 155,000 28 Sub-Total (South) 3,579,597 420,000 295,000 20 Banadir 901,183 . . .
GRAND TOTAL 7,502,654 535,000 315,000 11
Assessed Rural population in AFLC or HE 850,000 11 Estimated number of new IDPs updated Jan 08 705,000 9
Estimated number of old IDPs 275,000 4 Estimated total population in crisis 1,830,000 24