Food Harvest 2020 & the Environment?
Pat Murphy(RPO Schulte, T Donnellan, D O’hUallachain, R Creamer, R Fealy, N Farrelly & C O’Donoghue)
Food Harvest 2020
Ambition 2020:
Increase:
• primary output by €1.5bn
• value-added by €3bn
• exports to €12bn (+42%)
Targets:
• Dairy: milk production +50%
• Beef: output value +40%
• Targets for sheep, pigs, food andenergy crops, forestry, marine
To Deliver Smart Green Growth –
• Constraint to agriculture
• Central to the effort to promote Irish food
• Market Access by achieving standards
• Premium Price - consumer preference
Opportunity for??
Challenge
Challenge
To Deliver Smart Green Growth –
Ireland in good starting position in terms of itsgreen image and in relation to a number of keyenvironmental criteria
Starting position: GHG
Dairy GHG footprint: second smallest in EU
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/external/livestock-gas/full_text_en.pdf
Starting position: GHG
Beef GHG footprint: 5th smallest in EU
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/analysis/external/livestock-gas/full_text_en.pdf
Starting position: water quality
Surface water: trophic status
Source: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/water-nitrates/pdf/swd.pdf
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ag
ricul
tura
lGH
Gem
issi
ons
(MtC
O2e
q)
Historic data
FH Scenario2005 level
Green targets: GHG
Decline in animalnumbers and
fertiliser
Naturalrestructuring ofnational herd
Maximumreductionpotentialusing BAT
-10% target
-20% target
-30% target
Source: http://www.teagasc.ie/publications/2011/61/61_ClimateBillSubmission.pdf
Green targets: Water Quality
Source: http://www.epa.ie/downloads/pubs/water/waterqua/WaterQuality0709.pdf
2010-'12 2013-'15
But: Legacylag-times will
delay thisrecovery
2010-'12 2013-'15 2016-'18 2019-'22 2023-'25
Role foragriculture,
forestry,WWTPs, septic
tanks, etc.
Green targets: Biodiversity
Source:http://www.npws.ie/publications/euconservationstatus/NPWS_2007_Conservation_Status_Report.pdf
• Good baseline(scientific evidence?)
• 14% of areadesignated asNATURA2000 sites
• But trends arenegative
Green targets: Soil Quality
Proposed Soil Framework Directive:
• Stalled?
• Elements included in GAEC
• Specific target: 2% organic carbon
Challenge in relation to soil which need to be addressesd:
• Falling soil fertility
• Stagnation in Yields
• Role of soils in protecting water quality
• Role of soils in GHG – Emissions and Sequestration
• Role in maintaining Bio-diversity
The Question
2010-'12 2013-'15 2016-'18 2019-'22 2023-'25
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ag
r icu
ltur a
lGH
Gem
i ssi
ons
(Mt C
O2e
q)
Historic dataFH Scenario
2005 level
Can we meet Food Harvest targets and environmental targets ?
What risks does environmental regulation pose to theachievement of Food Harvest 2020 objectives
H2020 Environmental Risks
RisksConsequences
Mitigation
WaterQuality
GreenHouse Gas
Soil FertilityBio-diversity
RISK 1 Failure to meet targets for improvement of water quality
Possible Consequences
• Imposition of more stringent national regulation
• Supplementary measures in non compliantcatchments
• Loss of derogation ??
Leading to
Failure to meet FH2020 Targets
Action For Farmers• Continued Improvements in Nutrient Management• Continued reduction in point sources• Involvement in local efforts to improve own catchment water quality
based on understanding of local problems
RISK 1 Failure to meet targets for improvement of water quality
Action For Knowledge Transfer• Better Integration of environmental and technical advice• More usable / understandable nutrient advice• Focus on improved farmer education and awareness• Improved dissemination of emerging Research
RISK 1 Failure to meet targets for improvement of water quality
Action For Research• Continue work of Agricultural Catchments Programme
• Sources & Pathways• Behaviour & Co-operation
• Nutrient requirements and efficiency• Research on sedimentation
Action for Policy Makers / Regulators• Balance of “Carrot and Stick”
• Development of better understanding among farmers• Develop co-operative approach on a local basis
• Targeting to achieve specific objectives
RISK 2 Failure to meet targets for the reduction of Agricultural GHGs
Possible Consequences ???
• Financial – Purchase of Carbon Credits
• Production Limits
• Barriers to entry
• Loss of markets and damage reputation
Leading to
• Failure to meet FH2020 Targets And/or Loss of income
Action For Farmers
• Focus on reducing GHG emissions• Improvements in efficiency through adoption of best practice
• EBI, Grazing season, Grass utilisation• Slurry and Chemical Fertiliser Management
• Energy Efficiency• Land use – Sequestration and Forestry & Bio-energy
RISK 2 Failure to meet targets for the reduction of Agricultural GHGs
Action For Knowledge Transfer• Supporting efficiency improvement
• Improving Carbon efficiency• Leadership Role
• Integrating GHG message into advice – an extra incentive• Education and awareness
RISK 2 Failure to meet targets for the reduction of Agricultural GHGs
Action For Research• Input to National Inventory (NI)• Identifying and quantifying mitigation strategies Recognition in NI• Knowledge Based Policy
Action for Policy Makers / Regulators• International:- How do we count carbon
• Credit in relation to Sequestration, Farm Forestry and Bio-energy• Carbon Leakage• Targets – General and Agricultural
• Clear Support for mitigation measures
Carbon Navigator - Summary
0
5
10Grazing Season Length
Herd EBI
Chemical Nitrogen UsageSlurry Storage and Application
Energy Usage
Current ScoreTarget 2015Top 10%
P Indices in Q1 Samples 2008-2011
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011
%o
fsa
mp
les
Index 1
Index 2
Index 3
Index 4
Risk 3 Failure to Maintain Soil Fertility at adequate levels
• Similar situation with K
• 50% Soil pH below 6
Risk 3 Failure to Maintain Soil Fertility at adequate levels
Possible Consequences
• Loss of production
• Inefficient use of nutrients
Leading to• Increased difficulty in meeting meet FH2020 Targets
Action For Farmers
• Effective Nutrient Management• Test Soils• Get pH sorted• Use organic fertiliser effectively
• Use Chemical Fertiliser to improve fertility and output• Stay within statutory limits & reduce environmental impact
Risk 3 Failure to Maintain soil fertility at adequate levels
Action For Knowledge Transfer• Improve farmers knowledge and understanding of Nutrient Management• Promote Best Practice
• Soil Analysis NMP• Improve methodology to bridge gap between statutory and agronomic
• Maximise value of scarce resource
Risk 3 Failure to Maintain soil fertility at adequate levels
Action For Research• Provide Scientific basis for Improved nutrient advice
• Soil Type• Production Levels
• Improve nutrient efficiency• Contribute to policy
Action for Policy Makers / RegulatorsEnsure balance between environmental and agronomic objectives
RISK 4 Failure to meet targets to halt Biodiversity Loss
Possible Consequences
• Loss of Biodiversity
• Damage to Green Image
• Increased regulation – National and Local
Leading to
• Increased difficulty in meeting meet FH2020Targets
Action For Farmers• Contribute to improving bio-diversity where possible on the farm• Take up of Agri-Environmental Schemes
Action For Knowledge Transfer
• Education of farmers on importance of biodiversity and onways to enhance habitats
• Support take up of Agri-Environmental Schemes• Promote bio-diversity practice adoption
RISK 4 Failure to Halt Biodiversity Loss
Action For Research• Identification of Bio-diversity priorities• Providing baseline information• Identifying effective & cost efficient strategies• Evaluation of impacts
Action for Policy Makers / Regulators ??• Move to Implement Bio-diversity Action Plan• Targeted approach to specific problems• Effective incentivisation to maintain / improve habitats
RISK 4 Failure to Halt Biodiversity Loss
Outcomes• Valuable Food Ireland brand• Increased value of Green Product Farmer• Access to markets
Opportunity: Green Image based on Sustainability
The Challenge• To proactively demonstrate the sustainability of Irish Agricultural
produce
Opportunity: Green Image based on Sustainability
EnvironmentalSustainability
Waste
Energy
Nutrient
Social
AnimalWelfare
Water
Soil
GHG
Bio-diversity
Community
Pressure fromMulti-national
Buyers to demonstrate
Achieving Green Image requires us demonstrate high performance inthese criteria at a national level
Environmental sustainability is a key pillar of Food Harvest 2020
“Green credentials”: Ireland in good starting position
Challenge: meet growth targets and environmental targets
Real risks to achievement of FH2020 Can we overcome ?
Targeted mix of efficiency, intensification and expansion
Increased focus by the commercial farming sector, theiradvisers/consultants and researchers on environmental concerns
Need to enable / empower farmers to improve environmental outcomes
Effective research to develop technical solutions and inform policy
Co-operative approach across the agri-food industry to enhance theoutcomes of regulation
Conclusions
Rational policy frameworks mixing regulation and incentives Build strong foundation on regulation
Use other tools in the toolbox – e.g.DEP will probably prove to have been the most effective policy intervention
in reducing the carbon footprint of Milk
Ag Catchments Programme - farmer engagement contributes significantly toachieving positive outcomes
Actively work to prevent bureaucratic overload
Conclusions