Expert Group on Gender and Employment
Francesca Bettio, University of SienaAlina Verashchagina, Sapienza University of Rome
Athens, 1st December 2011
Familiar concepts in need of updating
Added and Discouraged workers Buffers and Substitutes Segregation and Segmentation
Past findings
Early post-war recessions in Europe and the USA:– women’s employment did not (consistently) move pro-
cyclically, mainly due to the protective role of segregation (Rubery 1988).
Early 1980s and late 1990s crisis in Latin America: – female participation moved counter-cyclically as the
added worker effect prevailed over discouragement effects among middle to high income households, less so among poorer families (Sabarwal et al. 2010).
Levelling downward of gender employment gaps. Protection from segregation
Male employment dropped earlier in the recession and faster. It is also picking up faster where recovery is on sight, but lost ground has not been fully regained yet. The gender gap in the employment rates has gone down by 2.5 percentage points from (pre-recession) peak level (-1.6% in FTE gap).
Female unemployment was stickier. The gender unemployment gap was practically cancelled in the depth of the recession but re-surfaced at 0.1 percentage points in 2011Q2.
Segregation has protected female employment. The differences in peak-to-trough employment losses between men and women correlate positively with the level of sectoral segregation across countries, the correlation with occupational segregation being also significant but slightly lower.
Downturn in employment: rates for men, peak levels and trough values
Men
20
40
60
80
Em
ploy
men
t ra
te, %
.
Peak value 89.6 83.5 82.9 81.2 80 79.5 78.2 77.4 77.1 76.7 75.8 75.3 74.7 74.7 74.6 74.4 74.4 74.3 73.3 73 72.8 70.8 70.8 70.1 69.6 68.8 68.6 68 67.2 66.8 66.7 63.9 52.2
Trough value 77.1 79.3 74.9 76.1 75.2 75.1 73.1 73.5 62.6 75 72.3 67.1 55.9 67.2 56.6 63.5 67.2 68.6 69.3 71 69.8 67.2 64.3 67.6 59.9 66.4 61.5 54.5 64.3 57.9 64.0 59.2 51.4
IS NL DK NO CY AT SE UK IE DE CZ EL LV FI EE ES SI PT EU 27 MT LU IT SK FR BG BE TK LT PL HR RO HUFYRO
M
Source: Eurostat, own elaboration
Downturn in employment: rates for women, peak levels and trough values
Women
20
40
60
80
Em
ploy
men
t ra
te, %
.
Peak value 81.1 75.7 74.4 73.2 71.8 70.0 67.5 66.3 66.3 65.9 65.5 65.2 63.2 63.1 62.7 60.8 60.6 60.4 59.2 57.7 56.6 55.8 55.2 55.1 54.3 53.1 52.6 51.1 49.1 47.5 38.7 33.2 24.9
Trough valuer 75.4 73.0 69.5 68.8 68.8 65.6 59.9 58.8 65.8 64.4 60.1 64.4 62.1 60.6 57.9 55.3 59.1 54.8 57.8 55.7 55.5 55.1 51.8 51.6 50.0 52.2 46.3 49.6 45.7 45.7 36.4 32.1 21.6
IS NO DK SE NL FI EE LV AT UK SI DE CY PT LT IE FR BG EU 27 CZ BE LU ES SK RO PL HR HU EL IT MTFYRO
MTK
Source: Eurostat, own elaboration
Employment losses should be measured against potential rather than actual employment levels. Losses for men nearly 3 times as high with peak-to-trough measure, nearly twice as high with deviation from trend measure.
Source: Eurostat, own elaboration
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
20
03
q2
20
03
q3
20
03
q4
20
04
q1
20
04
q2
20
04
q3
20
04
q4
20
05
q1
20
05
q2
20
05
q3
20
05
q4
20
06
q1
20
06
q2
20
06
q3
20
06
q4
20
07
q1
20
07
q2
20
07
q3
20
07
q4
20
08
q1
20
08
q2
20
08
q3
20
08
q4
20
09
q1
20
09
q2
20
09
q3
20
09
q4
20
10
q1
20
10
q2
20
10
q3
20
10
q4
20
11
q1
20
11
q2
Men, Trend Women, Trend Men Women
Choice of measure matters
Weakness in strength: levelling downward of the gender pay gap
National evidence from 9 countries
BE, DK, EE, FI, HR, LT,NO, SK, and CY
- The gender wage gap declined in the majority of countries during the first year of the recession.
- Trend factors had some role in this decline. But in the assessment of the national experts the recession may have accelerated the decline.
- Factors driving the GPG decline: non wage components of the pay packet, segregation; role of Equal Pay Policy.
Levelling downward of gender gaps: the importance of changing income roles
Discouraged workers were and remain more frequent among women, but the rise following the recession was more or less proportionately distributed between the sexes. The gender gap decreased slightly.
Unlike men, women increased labour market participation. At the trough point male inactivity was 0.9 percentage points higher than at the peak quarter while female inactivity was 0.1 points lower.
Dual breadwinners households are the vast majority but lost ground in favour of female breadwinners households (from 73.7% to 70%: 2007-8).
Women’s income role clearly in transition from that of secondary (but in no way marginal) workers and that of primary or co-primary earners. This crisis has emphasized the ‘insurance’ role of women’s earnings.
EU27 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR EL HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK2008 0.68 0.12 1.26 3.13 0.12 0.08 0.17 0.06 1.12 0.41 0.94 0.11 0.1 1.76 0.02 2.15 0.65 0.07 1 0.27 0.72 1.35 0.14 0.86 0.32 0.39 0.46 0.152009 0.81 0.1 1.16 3.61 0.44 0.13 0.36 0.1 1.71 0.68 1.47 0.13 0.1 2.15 0.72 2.25 1.32 0.13 2.43 0.13 0.61 1.34 0.18 1.26 0.43 0.77 0.43 0.172010 0.93 0.14 1.02 5.1 0.47 0.22 0.33 0.08 1.73 0.85 1.43 0.09 0.11 2.22 0.77 2.58 1.1 0.07 3.54 0.16 0.79 1.34 0.17 1.72 0.53 0.76 0.48 0.28
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Disc
oura
ged
wor
kers
, % o
f 15
-64
y.o.
MEN
EU27 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR EL HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK2008 1.35 0.14 3.81 2.9 0.85 0.2 0.57 0.14 0.59 1.29 1.02 0.15 0.32 1.6 0.01 5.08 0.47 0.27 1.12 0.37 0.84 1.78 0.37 2.38 0.58 0.61 0.39 0.092009 1.48 0.11 3.71 3.55 1.64 0.22 0.59 0.1 0.81 1.78 1.37 0.17 0.3 1.95 0.26 5.06 0.99 0.7 2.59 0.5 0.9 1.82 0.31 2.98 0.69 1.16 0.45 0.132010 1.57 0.12 3.09 3.9 1.74 0.25 0.58 0.08 0.95 2.19 1.33 0.14 0.34 2.2 0.28 5.41 0.88 0.55 3.17 0.72 0.87 1.7 0.35 3.52 0.8 1.03 0.45 0.13
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Dis
cour
aged
wor
kers
, % o
f 15-6
4 y.
o.
WOMEN
Source: Eurostat, own elaboration
Discouraged workers,in % of population 15-64
Levelling downward of gender gaps: women’s determination to stay
The number of involuntary part-timers grew more for women. In 2010, involuntary part-time rose sharply for men as a way to avoid dismissals. The percentage rise in the share of involuntary part-time was in fact about two points higher for men (+5.8 against +3.8). Nevertheless, given large gender disparities in part-time working, the increase in the number of women’s part-timers was almost double that of men.
The new Buffers or ‘Institutional Segmentation’: temporary employees, men and women
In the downturn firms found it easier to cut employment by failing to renew temporary contracts, while in the recovery they resorted to these contracts in preference to others. As a result temporary contracts declined in the downturn in ratio to total employment but quickly increased after the trough point was reached.
The ups and downs in the share of employees on temporary contracts were rather similar for men and women.
Temporary employment. downturn and recovery
Men
-5
5
15
25
Sh
are
of
tem
po
rary
em
plo
ym
ent,
% .
Share at trough point 19.0 18.9 17.8 13.6 13.1 12.1 12.0 11.1 10.1 9.9 8.7 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.5 7.3 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 5.5 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.2 0.7
Δ Peak-to-trough -1.5 -3.5 0.5 -0.3 1.6 -0.7 -2.6 -1.1 -1.1 -2.8 -1.5 -0.6 -0.4 -3.2 -0.5 0.9 -0.5 2.8 1.0 0.0 1.7 -0.9 -3.1 0.3 -1.8 -3.5 0.4 1.0 -0.6 -3.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.2
2011Q2 20.8 19.4 17.8 13.9 12.1 12.2 12.6 12.6 11.0 12.7 10.8 9.0 12.2 11.5 7.8 7.7 8.5 7.8 6.1 6.6 7.1 6.0 9.002 5.4 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.9 3.7 4.2 4.5 1.4
PL ES PT NLFYROM
DE SI FREU2
7SE HR IT IS FI AT DK HU LV BE EL IR NO TK CZ CY LU UK ES SK BG MT LT RO
Women
-5
5
15
25
Sh
are
of
tem
po
rary
em
plo
ym
ent
%
.
Share at trough point 23.1 21.5 19.3 17.8 16.2 15.5 15.4 14.8 14.0 13.4 12.4 11.4 10.7 10.3 9.6 9.3 9.0 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.7 7.7 6.5 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.2 4.4 4.1 2.7 2.6 1.5 0.7
Δ Peak-to-trough -4.2 -0.7 -1.1 0.1 -0.8 -2.8 -3.7 -3.9 -1.2 -0.4 -0.9 -1.9 0.5 1.6 1.1 -0.8 -2.3 0.2 0.1 -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 0.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.8 3.6 -2.2 -0.2 1.0 -2.1 -0.2 -0.2
2011Q2 23.9 21.3 20.2 16.9 19.2 17.2 18.0 16.9 14.7 13.8 13.0 12.2 10.7 9.3 10.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.2 12.7 9.2 8.0 7.0 7.7 5.8 5.0 5.4 6.814 6.4 4.0 3.5 2.1 1.1
ES PL PT NL CY SI FI SE FR DEEU2
7IT HR
FYROM
IR EL NO DK CZ IS BE AT LU HU UK MT LV TK SI ES BG LT RO
Source: Eurostat, own elaboration
The new Buffers: young men and women and male migrants
Most vulnerable groups of workers: young and migrants.
Male migrants from outside the EU recorded the highest employment fallout (peak-to-trough % variations) while outcomes for mobile workers from within the EU appear to differ across countries.
Female migrants were largely spared, especially those from within the EU. Many of them work in the care sector.
Nationality profile of employment losses and gains: men
Source: Eurostat, own elaboration
MEN
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
∆ ER -3.6 -5.3 -8.1 0.6 2.2 2.0 -3.8 -5.2 -8.6 0.9 2.2 2.7 -1.7 -1.5 -2.7 2.0 2.2 5.4 -15.3 0.0 -30.0 9.4 0.0 11.5 -10.0 -19.0 -16.1 0.3 3.4 -1.0 -3.7 -4.2 -5.6 0.8 2.5 1.8
local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra local EU27 extra
Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery Crisis Recovery
EU 27 EU15 DE EE ES UK
UKESEEDEEU27 EU15
Deterioration of working conditions (other than pay) shared by men and women, but different implications
Deteriorations of working conditions also include: delay in wage payments (BG, EE, EL, LV, LT), occupational downgrading (UK), violations of health and safety regulations (LT, SI) or of (normal) working schedules (PL) and trade union rights (TK), pressure and harassment at work (FI, FR), and downright discrimination (PT).
Evidence of curtailment of rights of pregnant women to maternity leave & benefits, and the right to resume job after maternity (EL, PT, IT and CZ). Bad news for fertility.
Men are more vocal about the deterioration of working conditions: Subjective evaluation of the change in working conditions 2008-10
Had to take a reduction in pay
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR UK HU NL NO PL PT SE SI
%
Had less security in job
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR UK HU NL NO PL PT SE SI
%
Note: Blue for Men, Red for Women Source: own elaboration on ESS data
Had to work shorter hours
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR UK HU NL NO PL PT SE SI
%
Had to do less interesting work
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
BE BG CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR UK HU NL NO PL PT SE SI
%
Where the gender gap may have increased: unpaid work
Indirect evidence: Pronounced fall in expenditure for routine maintenance goods and services, care services as well as meals and drinks
National evidence for IT, SI, ES, and TK:There is some evidence that the gender gap in the allocation of unpaid work may have gone up during the recession in countries where disparities in unpaid work are especially pronounced (Italy and Turkey)
Beware of the recession tail: fiscal consolidation and the second dip
Source: OECD 2011
The most frequent measures in 19 countries: AT, BG, CZ, DE, EL, FR, FYROM, HU, IE , IS, LI, LV, NL, MT, PL, PT, RO, SE, UK
On the expenditure side: Wage freezes or wage cuts in the public sector (11 countries); Staffing freezes or personnel cuts in the public sector (9 countries); Pension reforms: postponing retirement and/or bringing the age of retirement for women
in line with that for men (8 countries); Cuts and restrictions in care related benefits/allowances/facilities(8 countries); Reduction of housing benefits or family benefits (6 countries); Tightening of eligibility criteria for unemployment and assistance benefits or reductions in
replacement rates (5 countries);
On the revenue side: Tax measures (6 countries); VAT increase (5 countries); Increase in fees for publicly subsidized services (health care fees,
transport fees, others) (2 countries).
Fiscal consolidation and gender equality
Share of GDP affected Countries and measures
Expected repercussions on gender equality/ labour market gaps 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Greece Rationalization of public wage sector bill Disproportionate impact on men, unfavourable 0.9
Public sector downsizing Unfavourable to women, among others 2.4 Rationalization of social benefits Unfavourable to women, among others 1.9
Pension reform Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable Netherlands
Less government subsidies Unfavourable to women, among others 0.3 0.08 0.12 0.19 0.24 Cuts in childcare subsidies Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.24
Portugal Wage cuts and recruitment freeze Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.11 0.36 0.58 0.84
Cuts in family allowances and social benefits Unfavourable to women, among others 0.03 0.05 0.06 VAT increase Unfavourable to women, among others 0.63 1.5 1.56 1.61
United Kingdom 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 Reduction in operational budgets Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable n.a.
Wage and staff freeze in public sector Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.19* Contributory employment and support allowance 0.07 0.09 0.12
Housing benefits capping Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.01 0.02 Restrictions in Disability Living Allowance Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.01 0.01
Child benefits freeze Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.03 0.11 0.22 0.24 Increased public pension contributions Disproportionate impact on women, unfavourable 0.01 0.08 0.1
VAT increase Unfavourable to women, among others 0.79
In half of the countries that we were able to include in our evaluation exercise the consolidation provisions deemed to entail ‘risks’ of rolling back women’s integration into the labour market on an equal footing represent no less than 1% of GDP in one or more years within the announced consolidation period.
Source: Karamessini (2011), Plantenga and Remery (2011), Ferreira (2011), Fagan and Norman (2011)
Fiscal consolidation: women more at risk?
What levelling downward of employment gaps boils down to
At peak values, just before the recession begun, 10 Member States were above the 65% employment rate mark for women, but the number was down to 6 in the second quarter of 2011 as EE, LV, UK and SI slipped below the 65% mark. In the vast majority of Member States the 70% target for 2020 looks further away now than four years ago.
To move forward
At policy level Review/auditing/monitoring of consolidation or recovery
packages from a gender equality perspective A ‘pink new deal’
Within civil society at large Spread awareness of transition from ‘welfare’ to ‘bankfare’ More literacy in financial matters for women