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cbiOptions for increasing the level of
mitigation ambitions in the short term
Spencer Thomas, Ph.D Ambassador, Special Envoy for MEAsGrenada
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for sustained capacity building in support of international climate change negotiations
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cbiArgument
• Well below 1.5 degrees Celcius: We can do it.
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Impact of 1m SLRUNDP
• 1300 sq km Caribbean
• Coastal infrastructure, transport, communication
• 5 % of Bahamas
• 21 of 64 airports
• 35 of 44 ports
• 149 multi million dollar resorts
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Science
• Rising emission levels
• Rising sea levels: 1-2 m 2100
• Rising temperatures: 4-5 degree pathway– 2 degrees?
• Cost of inaction and delay
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Emissions gap
• Real and significant
• 13-18% : 1990 levels
• LULUCF credits: 10 - 15 %
• Surplus AAUs: 5-10 %
• Both : 1-7%
• Science
• AOSIS: 45% by 2020 with 2015 peaking 04/21/23 5
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Achievable? Yes
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2C vs 1.5C in 2020
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SLR not stabilized at 2 degRohmstorf (2007): Church and White (2011)
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cbiCoral reefs
Silverman et al (2009)
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Ocean acidification Lowe et al (2010)
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Annex 1 Reductions: not enough
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• Economic costs for higher ambition are feasible – OECD, IEA, IIASA estimates
• Costs of inaction and delay are formidable
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Short term responses
• Increased levels of ambitions and actions
• Cap LULUCF credits
• Remove exceptions
• No carryover of surplus AAUs
• The Kyoto protocol
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• Renewable energy options are available and feasible
• Identify and support EE and RE mitigation potential
• Support expedited uptake of renewables
• Overcome barriers to deployment
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• Transformation of the energy sector
• Technology and finance mechanism for low carbon development
• By 2030, 50% power needs by renewables
• 30% cut in importation of fossil fuels
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Unhelpful
• Agenda fights
• Bad faith negotiations
• Delays
• Conditionalties
• Unilateralism
• Focus on voluntarism
• Pledge and review 04/21/23 16
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cbiFurther Needs
• Global leadership
• Cost effective global mitigation potential
• Enhanced access to international ETS under KP
• Rio plus 20: new model for development
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