Download - EU & World cereal market situation
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EU & World cereal market situation
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 2
Euro/dollar exchange rate
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 3
CRUDE OIL
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 4
BALTIC DRY INDEX
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 5
EU-27 Cereal Production
258,4
8,2
57,7
7,6
312,7
98,8
48,3
111,9
62,5
140,6
65,3
9,6 9,2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
TOTAL Softw heat
Durumw heat
Barley Maize Rye Oats
Mt
2007 2008
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 6
EU 27 Balance
-6,6
2,8
9,8
-8-6-4-202468
1012
total
Mt
BALANCE 2006/2007 BALANCE 2007/2008 BALANCE 2008/2009
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 7
EU Export Commitments
5,4
0,41,5
9,4
3,1
0,3
2,8
8,3
10,8
0,6
2,8
16,1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
CommonWheat
Durum Wheat Barley total
Mt
Export 2006/2007 Export 2007/2008 Export 2008/2009
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 8
Share of EU common wheat exports
by MS /July - Oct 2008
WHEAT - Main EUR27 Exporters - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
France46%
Germany18%
Romania12%
Hungary2%
Others1%
Sweden1%
Belgium1%
Netherlands1%
Lithuania3% Bulgaria
11%
Latvia3%
Utd. Kingdom1%
Source: Comext (common wheat)
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 9
Destination of EU common wheat exports /July - Oct 2008
WHEAT - EUR27 Exports - Countries of destination - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
Algeria27%
Morocco17%
Pakistan13%
Senegal2%
South Africa2%
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya2%
Tunisia2%
Cameroon2%
Israel2%
Egypt3%
Ethiopia4%
Iran13%
U.A.Emirates3%
Djibouti3%
Turkey2% Senegal
1%
Yemen2%
Iraq2%
Source: Comext (common wheat)
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 10
Destination of EU durum wheat exports /July - Oct 2008
DURUM WHEAT - EUR27 Exports - Countries of destination - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
Turkey23%
Tunisia62%
Algeria5%
Others0,6%
USA1,2%
Switzerland1,9%
Syria2,6%
Morocco1,6%
Mauritania0,8%
Source: Comext (durum wheat)
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 11
EU Import Commitments
2,8
0,8
2,3
0,2
6,6
3
1,1
7,2
2,4
13,8
3,3
0,5
2,1
0,3
6,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
CommonWheat
DurumWheat
Maize Sorghum total
Mt
Import 2006/2007 Import 2007/2008 Import 2008/2009
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 12
Origin of EU common wheat imports/ July - Oct 2008
WHEAT - EUR27 Imports - Countries of origin - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
Ukraine62%
USA15%
Canada12%
Others0,4%
Kazakhstan0,7%Russia
9%
Moldova0,6%
Source: Comext (common wheat)
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 13
Origin of EU wheat imports by MS /July -Sept 2008
WHEAT- Main EUR27 Importers and country of origin - Campaign 2008-09 (4 months)
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
Spain Italy Utd. Kingdom Greece Portugal
(Tonnes)
Ukraine USA Canada Russia Others
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 14
Intervention situation
5.848 T.
9.605 T.9.169 T.
400 T.
Quantities under offer"Cereals"
EU-27 : 97.831 T.
72.809 T.
Marketing year: 2008/2009
Week No.: 23
at: 7/12/2008
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 15
Intervention situation
8.500; 9%
37.906; 39%51.425; 52%
Common wheat Barley Maize
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 16
IGC– November Report Wheat Production
56,2
610
1349,4
16,6 16,3
119,7
13,9
68 6220 13
683
151
2511
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
World
Pro
duct
ionUSA
Austra
lia
Russia
Ukrai
ne
Kazak
hsta
n
Argen
tina EU
Mt
2007 2008
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 17
442 446 451
97 89119
63
171516
57 64
-50
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
Seeds & Waste
Industrial
Feed
Food
World 2006: 611 mioT World 2007: 614 mioT World 2008: 650 mioT
IGC– November Report
Wheat use
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 18
IGC–November Report
Wheat
125 118
150
39 2944
683
650
610597,8
612614
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
World Ending Stocks
of which 5 major exporters
World Production
World Consumption
MM
T
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 19
Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007
168
220
315
155
115100
200
300
400
500
600
$/t
US SRW FOB GulfUS HRW FOB GulfArgentinaAustralia ASW Canada CWRS 13.5% St LawBlack Sea milling 4th gradeBlack Sea feed fob
Source: IGC
800
165
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 20
EU Wheat prices since 1/1/2007
125135
107105
155
205
255
305
€/t
Dlvd Rouen (11-12, 5%protein)Fob Hamburg (B)
UK feed FOB
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 21
Egypt: GASC official: bought 240,000 t wheat, incl. 120,000 t from Russia, at $163 fob, and 120,000 t from the EU (France), at $171 fob, for Jan shipment;
Syria put out a new tender to buy 200,000 tonnes soft wheat of any origin. Bidding deadline in the new tender is Dec 17.
Morocco put out a new tender to buy 300,000 tonnes soft wheat of any origin. Bidding deadline in the new tender is Dec 17
Pakistan put a new tender to buy 500,000 tonnes of any origin (Dec 20).
Common Wheat purchases
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 22
IGC–November Report Maize Production
47,37,4
58,620,5
787
332
63
775
91855
305
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
WorldProduction
USA Argentine Brazil EU Ukraine
Mt
2007 2008
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 23
85 86 87
469 490 475
198
30
168139
3129
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
Seeds & Waste
Industrial
Feed
Food
World 2006: 724 mioT World 2007: 773 mioT World 2008: 790 mioT
IGC– November Report Maize use
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 24
IGC–November Report
Corn
115130
114
33,1 4129
775
790787
708
724
773
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
World Ending Stocks
of which US
World Production
World Consumption
MM
T
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 25
Maize export prices since 1/1/2007
100
150
200
250
300
350
$/t
US YC3 FOB Gulf
Argentina maize Up River
Brazillian maize
Sources: IGC
US:145Arg:138Braz:132
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 26
EU maize prices since 1/1/2007
114,65
87,17
50
100
150
200
250
300
eu
r/t
Bordeaux (FR) Budapest (HU)
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 27
IGC–November Report
Durum wheat
2,5
1,4
2,5
1,20,8
1,2
38,7
38
35
35,9
38
36
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2006 2007 2008
MM
T
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
World Ending Stocks
of which Canada
World Production
World Consumption
MM T
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 28
Durum WheatEU Prices
Price of DURUM WHEAT (Euro/Ton)
in Italy - France - Spain
0
100
200
300
400
500
600Ju
il
Ao
ut
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec Ja
n
Fev
Mar
Avr
i
Mai
Juin
Juil
Ao
ut
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec Ja
n
Fev
Mar
Avr
i
Mai
Juin
Juil
Ao
ut
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Déc
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Eu
ro/T
Italy
France
Spain
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 29
Tunisia: 25 000 t durum in a tender for December/ $ 175 a tonne c&f.
Durum Wheat purchases
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 30
Agrometeo conditionsfor EU sowing 2009
Favorable conditions in Germany
Poor weather conditions in UK
Rain needed in some parts (RO, BG, HU, ES and GR)
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 31
Preliminary forecastsfor wheat sowing 2009
In USA : 5 %
In EU : 1.5%
In Russia : 5 %
in Ukraine : 6%
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Advisory Committee, Brussels, 12/12/2008 32
Thank you for your attention