Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013
Appendix 136a.3 Vegetation Alternate Assessment
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
Supplemental Information Request, Round 2
October 2013
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-i
Table of Contents
APPENDIX 136A.3 VEGETATION ALTERNATE ASSESSMENT
136a.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................136a.3-1
136a.3.2 Landscape Diversity ....................................................................................................136a.3-2
136a.3.2.1 Effects Classification..............................................................................136a.3-2
136a.3.2.2 Environmental Consequence ..................................................................136a.3-2
136a.3.2.3 Prediction Confidence ............................................................................136a.3-2
136a.3.2.4 Summary.................................................................................................136a.3-9
136a.3.3 Community Diversity ..................................................................................................136a.3-9
136a.3.3.1 Reference Conditions and Base Case .....................................................136a.3-9
136a.3.3.1.1 Land Units and Old Growth .........................................136a.3-9
136a.3.3.1.2 Rare Ecological Communities......................................136a.3-9
136a.3.3.2 Base Case..............................................................................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.2.1 Land Units and Old Growth .......................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.2.2 Rare Ecological Communities....................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.3 Application Case ..................................................................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.3.1 Land Units and Old Growth .......................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.3.2 Rare Ecological Communities....................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.4 Planned Development Case ..................................................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.4.1 Land Units and Old Growth .......................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.4.2 Rare Ecological Communities....................................136a.3-15
136a.3.3.5 Effects Classification............................................................................136a.3-16
136a.3.3.5.1 Land Units and Old Growth .......................................136a.3-16
136a.3.3.5.2 Rare Ecological Communities....................................136a.3-16
136a.3.3.6 Environmental Consequence ................................................................136a.3-16
136a.3.3.7 Prediction Confidence ..........................................................................136a.3-16
136a.3.4 Species Diversity........................................................................................................136a.3-18
136a.3.4.1 Reference Conditions and Base Case ...................................................136a.3-18
136a.3.4.2 Application Case ..................................................................................136a.3-18
136a.3.4.3 Planned Development Case ..................................................................136a.3-18
136a.3.4.4 Effects Classification............................................................................136a.3-23
136a.3.4.5 Environmental Consequence ................................................................136a.3-23
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
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136a.3.4.6 Prediction Confidence ..........................................................................136a.3-23
136a.3.4.7 Summary...............................................................................................136a.3-23
136a.3.5 Air Emissions and Vegetation Health and Diversity..............................................136a.3-25
136a.3.5.1 Base Case..............................................................................................136a.3-25
136a.3.5.1.1 SO2 Fumigation ..........................................................136a.3-25
136a.3.5.1.2 NO2 Fumigation..........................................................136a.3-25
136a.3.5.1.3 Nitrogen Deposition ...................................................136a.3-25
136a.3.5.2 Application Case ..................................................................................136a.3-25
136a.3.5.2.1 SO2 Fumigation ..........................................................136a.3-25
136a.3.5.2.2 NO2 Fumigation..........................................................136a.3-29
136a.3.5.2.3 Nitrogen Deposition ...................................................136a.3-29
136a.3.5.3 Planned Development Case ..................................................................136a.3-29
136a.3.5.3.1 SO2 Fumigation ..........................................................136a.3-29
136a.3.5.3.2 NO2 Fumigation..........................................................136a.3-29
136a.3.5.3.3 Nitrogen Deposition ...................................................136a.3-29
136a.3.5.4 Effects Classification............................................................................136a.3-33
136a.3.5.4.1 SO2 Fumigation ..........................................................136a.3-33
136a.3.5.4.2 NO2 Fumigation..........................................................136a.3-33
136a.3.5.4.3 Nitrogen Deposition ...................................................136a.3-33
136a.3.5.5 Environmental Consequence ................................................................136a.3-33
136a.3.5.6 Prediction Confidence ..........................................................................136a.3-35
136a.3.5.7 Summary...............................................................................................136a.3-35
136a.3.6 Conclusions ................................................................................................................136a.3-35
136a.3.7 References ..................................................................................................................136a.3-35
List of Tables
Table 136a.3-1 Changes in Landscape Diversity in the RSA (Refined Table 3-12)................. 136a.3-3
Table 136a.3-2 Effects Classification and Environmental Consequence Ranking forLandscape Diversity ......................................................................................... 136a.3-8
Table 136a.3-3 Changes in Community Diversity (Alternate Table 3-14) ............................. 136a.3-10
Table 136a.3-4 Changes in Community Diversity in the RSA – Land Units(Alternate Table 3-16a) .................................................................................. 136a.3-13
Table 136a.3-5 Changes in Community Diversity in the RSA – Structural Stages(Alternate Table 3-16b) .................................................................................. 136a.3-14
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
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October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-iii
Table 136a.3-6 Effects Classification and Environmental Consequence Ranking forCommunity Diversity (Alternate Table 3-17) ................................................ 136a.3-17
Table 136a.3-7 Changes in Rare Species in the Revised Terrestrial LSA (AlternateTable 3-18) ..................................................................................................... 136a.3-19
Table 136a.3-8 Changes in Rare Species in the RSA (Alternate Table 3-19)......................... 136a.3-21
Table 136a.3-9 Effects Classification and Environmental Consequence Ranking forSpecies Diversity (Alternate Table 3-21) ....................................................... 136a.3-24
Table 136a.3-10 Area above SO2 Critical Levels by Cover Class – Base Case andApplication Case (Alternate Table 3-24) ....................................................... 136a.3-26
Table 136a.3-11 Area above NO2 Critical Levels by Cover Class – Base Case andApplication Case (Alternate Table 3-25) ....................................................... 136a.3-27
Table 136a.3-12 Area above N-Deposition Critical Loads by Cover Class – Base Caseand Application Case (Alternate Table 3-26)................................................. 136a.3-28
Table 136a.3-13 Area above SO2 Critical Levels by Cover Class – Base Case andPDC (Alternate Table 3-27) ........................................................................... 136a.3-30
Table 136a.3-14 Area above NO2 Critical Levels by Cover Class – Base Case andPDC (Alternate Table 3-28) ........................................................................... 136a.3-31
Table 136a.3-15 Area above N-Deposition Critical Loads by Cover Class – Base Caseand PDC (Alternate Table 3-29) .................................................................... 136a.3-32
Table 136a.3-16 Effects Classification of Emissions on Vegetation (Alternate Table3-30) ............................................................................................................... 136a.3-34
Table 136a.3-17 Environmental and Prediction Consequence for AlternateAssessment (Alternate Table 3-31) ................................................................ 136a.3-35
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
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Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-1
136a.3.1 Introduction
This appendix provides an alternate assessment to Volume 6, Section 3 (vegetation
assessment) of the Frontier Oil Sands Mine Project Integrated Application. The alternate
assessment removes from the Base Case and Application Case:
the Pierre River Mine (PRM)
other developments applied for but not yet approved as of July 18, 2012 (for a
detailed listing of this alternate development inclusion list (DIL), see the response to
ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 308a)
In addition to changes in the DIL, several revisions have been integrated into the alternate
assessment, including:
removal of the south development area (SDA)
removal of the main development area (MDA)-SDA corridor
removal of the 500-m buffer around the above areas
removal of progressive reclamation for regional developments considered in the Base
Case and Application Case (i.e., all developments and associated linear features are
considered at maximum build-out)
changes to air modelling and associated predictions of nitrogen dioxide (NO2),
sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen-deposition using ESRD MM5 as input data
instead of the more detailed Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) data used in
the Integrated Application
A revised vegetation assessment is provided in ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.1
and is used to compare against the alternate assessment provided here.
The alternate assessment examines:
landscape diversity
community diversity
species diversity
effects from air emissions associated with NO2 and SO2 concentrations and nitrogen-
deposition
Excepting the information discussed, the alternate assessment approach follows that of
the Integrated Application.
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
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136a.3.2 Landscape Diversity
The detailed methods used for the alternate assessment of landscape diversity follow
those used in the Integrated Application except for the DIL, which follows the response
to ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 308a. For completeness, an assessment of cover classes
and structural stages is provided (see Table 136a.3-1).
136a.3.2.1 Effects Classification
A summary of the effects classification for vegetation cover class and structural stage
patch metrics at the regional scale is provided (see Table 136a.3-2). Some details have
changed relative to the Integrated Application, the response to ESRD/CEAA Round 1
SIR 196, and the revised assessment where progressive reclamation was included
(see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.1) and progressive reclamation was not
included (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.2). However, the general effects
classifications remain similar with patch metrics for vegetation cover class and structural
stage being of moderate to high magnitude. As indicated in the Integrated Application
(see Volume 6, Section 3.5.7, Pages 3-40 to 3-42), change to patch metrics is considered
to be long-term but reversible through a combination of reclamation and reestablishment
of natural landscape processes.
136a.3.2.2 Environmental Consequence
The environmental consequence ranking (see Table 136a.3-2) (i.e., low to moderate
environmental consequence) remains the same for the existing conditions, Base Case,
Application Case and Planned Development Case (PDC) across the:
alternate assessment without reclamation and with an alternate DIL relative to the
Integrated Application (see Volume 6, Section 3.7.8, Pages 3-98 to 3-99)
revised assessment that considered the revised terrestrial LSA (see ESRD/CEAA
Round 2 Appendix 136a.1)
refined assessment that considered the revised terrestrial LSA and no progressive
reclamation (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.2, Table 136a.2-2)
136a.3.2.3 Prediction Confidence
As in the Integrated Application, a moderate level of confidence is given to the methods
and results used to assess effects of the Project on landscape diversity.
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-3
Table 136a.3-1 Changes in Landscape Diversity in the RSA (Refined Table 3-12)
Vegetation CoverClass
Predevelop-ment
ExistingCondition
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment toExisting
(%)
BaseCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
Base Case(%)
ApplicationCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
ApplicationCase(%)
PDC
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
PDC(%)
Vegetation Cover Class Patch Number
Coniferous – jack pine 10,091 11,877 17.7 12,299 21.9 11,808.0 17.0 11,517 14.1
Coniferous – whitespruce
9,201 9,393 2.1 9,121.0 -0.9 8,437.0 -8.3 8,341 -9.3
Coniferous – blackspruce
1,341 1,514 12.9 1,380.0 2.9 1,370.0 2.2 1,373 2.4
Mixedwood– jack pine 10,237 11,931 16.5 10,318.0 0.8 9,723.0 -5.0 9,551 -6.7
Mixedwood– whitespruce
13,905 15,083 8.5 14,351.0 3.2 12,951.0 -6.9 12,537 -9.8
Deciduous/mixedwood– deciduous
15,078 18,919 25.5 16,510.0 9.5 15,151.0 0.5 14,830 -1.6
Upland shrubland 5,157 5,697 10.5 5,258.0 2.0 4,804.0 -6.8 4,801 -6.9
Upland grassland 6,596 7,539 14.3 5,781.0 -12.4 4,862.0 -26.3 4,770 -27.7
Shrubby bog 8,303 8,825 6.3 8,146.0 -1.9 7,484.0 -9.9 7,353 -11.4
Wooded bog 14,350 16,629 15.9 15,547.0 8.3 15,061.0 5.0 14,638 2.0
Wooded poor fen 11,921 13,059 9.5 12,169.0 2.1 11,755.0 -1.4 11,447 -4.0
Rich wooded fen 9,103 10,078 10.7 9,083.0 -0.2 8,845.0 -2.8 8,708 -4.3
Shrubby fen 8,891 9,701 9.1 8,192.0 -7.9 7,752.0 -12.8 7,378 -17.0
Open fen 8,954 10,502 17.3 9,068.0 1.3 8,301.0 -7.3 7,961 -11.1
Wooded swamp 17,651 20,711 17.3 20,737.0 17.5 19,094.0 8.2 18,836 6.7
Shrubby swamp 16,807 19,295 14.8 17,304.0 3.0 16,055.0 -4.5 15,351 -8.7
Marsh/wet meadow 4,488 4,531 1.0 4,155.0 -7.4 3,764.0 -16.1 3,704 -17.5
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
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Table 136a.3-1 Changes in Landscape Diversity in the RSA (Refined Table 3-12) (cont’d)
Vegetation CoverClass
Predevelop-ment
ExistingCondition
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment toExisting
(%)
BaseCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
Base Case(%)
ApplicationCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
ApplicationCase(%)
PDC
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
PDC(%)
Vegetation Cover Class Mean Patch Area (ha)
Coniferous – jack pine 11.8 9.6 -18.1 9.3 -21.2 9.2 -22.0 7.0 -41.1
Coniferous – whitespruce
3.7 3.3 -11.2 3.1 -14.9 3.1 -17.2 3.1 -17.1
Coniferous – blackspruce
4.1 4 -2.3 1.5 -64.5 1.5 -64.3 1.5 -64.5
Mixedwood– jack pine 7 5.6 -20.5 5.1 -26.6 5.2 -25.1 5.2 -25.2
Mixedwood– whitespruce
4.8 4.2 -13.2 4.2 -11.8 4.4 -8.3 4.5 -7.1
Deciduous/mixedwood– deciduous
11.3 7.9 -29.9 8.1 -28.0 7.7 -32.2 7.8 -31.4
Upland shrubland 3.6 2.4 -35.4 2.8 -23.3 2.7 -24.7 2.7 -24.9
Upland grassland 4.2 2.1 -50.1 2.4 -43.3 2.2 -48.8 2.2 -48.2
Shrubby bog 5.9 5.1 -12.4 5.3 -9.9 5.5 -6.9 5.5 -6.7
Wooded bog 10 8.4 -15.6 8.5 -15.0 8.6 -13.6 8.8 -12.4
Wooded poor fen 3.7 3.3 -12.0 3.4 -8.5 3.4 -7.9 3.4 -8.6
Rich wooded fen 4.6 3.9 -14.8 3.9 -14.5 4.0 -13.8 3.9 -14.7
Shrubby fen 3 2.5 -18.0 2.5 -15.3 2.5 -17.2 2.6 -14.8
Open fen 5.4 4.1 -24.0 4.7 -12.2 4.5 -16.1 4.5 -16.8
Wooded swamp 12 9.8 -18.6 9.1 -24.2 9.2 -23.4 8.7 -27.7
Shrubby swamp 5 4 -19.3 4.2 -16.9 4.0 -20.2 4.0 -20.0
Marsh/wet meadow 2.6 2 -20.5 2.0 -24.7 1.7 -36.5 1.7 -36.2
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
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October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-5
Table 136a.3-1 Changes in Landscape Diversity in the RSA (Refined Table 3-12) (cont’d)
Vegetation CoverClass
Predevelop-ment
ExistingCondition
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment toExisting
(%)
BaseCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
Base Case(%)
ApplicationCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
ApplicationCase(%)
PDC
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
PDC(%)
Vegetation Cover Class Total Patch Edge (km)
Coniferous – jack pine 13,946 15,084 8.2 13,032 -6.6 12,580 -9.8 6,931 -50.3
Coniferous – whitespruce
8,647 81,200 839.1 7,663 -11.4 7,011 -18.9 801 -90.7
Coniferous – blackspruce
1,195 1,106 -7.4 801 -33.0 799 -33.1 9,259 674.8
Mixedwood– jack pine 11,430 11,777 3.0 10,020 -12.3 9,511 -16.8 11,725 2.6
Mixedwood– whitespruce
13,810 13,750 -0.4 13,230 -4.2 12,066 -12.6 19,216 39.1
Deciduous/mixedwood– deciduous
25,079 24,923 -0.6 22,272 -11.2 19,518 -22.2 3,915 -84.4
Upland shrubland 5,155 4,141 -19.7 4,348 -15.7 3,927 -23.8 3,145 -39.0
Upland grassland 6,733 4,885 -27.4 4,111 -38.9 3,189 -52.6 7,737 14.9
Shrubby bog 9,248 9,014 -2.5 8,481 -8.3 7,878 -14.8 20,823 125.2
Wooded bog 22,230 23,362 5.1 21,687 -2.4 21,268 -4.3 10,118 -54.5
Wooded poor fen 11,304 11,350 0.4 10,789 -4.6 10,446 -7.6 8,536 -24.5
Rich wooded fen 9,982 9,857 -1.3 8,925 -10.6 8,733 -12.5 5,546 -44.4
Shrubby fen 7,634 7,108 -6.9 6,114 -19.9 5,715 -25.1 7,256 -5.0
Open fen 9,399 8,766 -6.7 8,533 -9.2 7,614 -19.0 28,201 200.0
Wooded swamp 33,409 34,202 2.4 32,041 -4.1 29,650 -11.3 15,578 -53.4
Shrubby swamp 19,747 19,630 -0.6 17,995 -8.9 16,312 -17.4 2,308 -88.3
Marsh/wet meadow 3,455 3,055 -11.6 2,783 -19.4 2,340 -32.3 897 -74.1
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
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Table 136a.3-1 Changes in Landscape Diversity in the RSA (Refined Table 3-12) (cont’d)
Vegetation CoverClass
Predevelop-ment
ExistingCondition
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment toExisting
(%)
BaseCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
Base Case(%)
ApplicationCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
ApplicationCase(%)
PDC
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
PDC(%)
Vegetation Structural Stage Patch Number
0: Non-vegetated 1,727 143,900 8,232.4 2,018 16.9 1,989 15.2 1,698 -1.7
1: Sparse or bryoid 449 454 1.1 125,047 27,750.1 120,909 26,828.5 106,761 23,677.5
2: Herb 16,249 19,681 21.1 17,099 5.2 16,616 2.3 15,067 -7.3
3a: Low shrub 16,434 17,880 8.8 15,787 -3.9 15,632 -4.9 14,261 -13.2
3b: Tall shrub 17,014 22,195 30.5 18,054 6.1 17,794 4.6 16,013 -5.9
4: Pole or sapling 5,960 5,791 -2.8 9,527 59.8 9,363 57.1 9,232 54.9
5: Young forest 6,216 20,436 228.8 12,471 100.6 12,335 98.4 11,808 90.0
6: Mature forest 8,991 22,376 148.9 12,820 42.6 12,523 39.3 11,424 27.1
7: Old-growth forest 10,093 6,252 -38.1 15,258 51.2 14,704 45.7 13,245 31.2
Vegetation Structural Stage Mean Patch Area (ha)
0: Non-vegetated 13.4 0.8 -94.1 91.8 585.3 106.6 695.8 167.6 1,150.5
1: Sparse or bryoid 0.9 0.3 -65.6 0.1 -94.4 0.0 -94.7 0.0 -94.9
2: Herb 5.4 3.5 -35.2 4.0 -26.7 4.0 -26.2 3.7 -31.6
3a: Low shrub 4.6 3.9 -15.6 4.1 -11.8 4.1 -11.8 4.2 -9.5
3b: Tall shrub 10 4.1 -59.0 9.6 -4.1 9.6 -4.1 9.9 -0.6
4: Pole or sapling 48.8 29.4 -39.8 31.4 -35.7 31.7 -35.1 31.5 -35.5
5: Young forest 27.7 17.1 -38.4 13.1 -52.7 12.9 -53.4 12.9 -53.5
6: Mature forest 22.8 13.1 -42.3 12.1 -47.1 11.4 -50.1 11.0 -51.6
7: Old-growth forest 16.9 6.2 -63.5 5.4 -68.2 5.4 -68.2 4.8 -71.8
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October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-7
Table 136a.3-1 Changes in Landscape Diversity in the RSA (Refined Table 3-12) (cont’d)
Vegetation CoverClass
Predevelop-ment
ExistingCondition
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment toExisting
(%)Base Case
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
Base Case(%)
ApplicationCase
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
ApplicationCase(%)
PDC
Changefrom
Predevelop-ment to
PDC(%)
Vegetation Structural Stage Total Patch Edge (km)
0: Non-vegetated 2,777 24,542 783.9 5,957 114.5 5,965 114.8 6,413 130.9
1: Sparse or bryoid 190 117 -38.3 13,866 7,197.9 13,144 6,817.9 11,203 5,796.2
2: Herb 17,857 15,597 -12.7 16,033 -10.2 15,757 -11.8 13,606 -23.8
3a: Low shrub 16,591 15,916 -4.1 14,417 -13.1 14,263 -14.0 13,125 -20.9
3b: Tall shrub 23,406 22,771 -2.7 24,440 4.4 24,086 2.9 21,662 -7.5
4: Pole or sapling 17,508 17,125 -2.2 22,957 31.1 22,756 30.0 22,434 28.1
5: Young forest 16,450 41,359 151.4 21,416 30.2 21,080 28.1 19,986 21.5
6: Mature forest 21,080 37,855 79.6 19,873 -5.7 18,515 -12.2 16,208 -23.1
7: Old-growth forest 20,874 7,426 -64.4 14,725 -29.5 14,098 -32.5 11,731 -43.8
NOTE:1
Snapshot represents maximum build-out (2057). The Project is considered not reclaimed with other developments, including progressive reclamation, up to2057.
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Table 136a.3-2 Effects Classification and Environmental Consequence Ranking for Landscape Diversity
KeyIndicator Duration Frequency
Ability toRecover
Percent Magnitude Change
EnvironmentalConsequence
FromPredevelopment
to ExistingConditions
1
FromPredevelopment
to Base Case1
FromPredevelopmentto Application
Case1
FromPredevelopment
to PDC1
Vegetation Cover Class
Patchnumber
Long Isolated Reversible 25.5% (deciduousand mixedwooddeciduous) –moderate
21.9% (coniferousjackpinedominated) –moderate
-26.3% (uplandgrassland) –moderate
-27.7% (uplandgrassland) –moderate
Low
Mean patcharea
Long Isolated Reversible -50.1% (uplandgrassland) – high
-64.5% (coniferousblack spruce) –high
-64.3% (coniferousblack spruce) –high
-64.5% (coniferousblack spruce) –high
Moderate
Total patchedge
Long Isolated Reversible 839.1%(coniferous whitespruce) – high
-33.0% (coniferousblack spruce) –moderate
-33.1% (coniferousblack spruce) –moderate
200.0% (openfen) – high
Moderate
Structural Stage (Vegetated Patches)
Patchnumber
Long Isolated Reversible 228.8% (youngforest) – high
100.6% (youngforest) – high
98.4% (youngforest) – high
910.0% (youngforest) – high
Moderate
Mean patcharea
Long Isolated Reversible -63.5% (old growthforest) – high
-68.2% (old growthforest) – high
-68.2% (old growthforest) – high
-71.8% old growthforest) – high
Moderate
Total patchedge
Long Isolated Reversible 151.4% (youngforest) – high
31.1% (polesapling)– high
-32.5% (old growthforest) – high
-43.8% (old growthforest) – high
Moderate
NOTE:1
Magnitude of change for patch metrics follows percolation theory and includes a low magnitude of change (<20%), moderate magnitude of change (20% to40%) and high magnitude change (>40%). Change is relative to predevelopment (2057).
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136a.3.2.4 Summary
The environmental consequence ranking (see Table 136a.3-2) for changes in landscape
diversity remains the same (i.e., low to moderate environmental consequence) for
existing conditions, Base Case, Application Case and PDC for the:
alternate assessment (i.e., without progressive reclamation and with an alternate DIL)
Integrated Application (see Volume 6, Section 3.7.8, Pages 3-98 to 3-99)
revised assessment (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.1)
refined assessment (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.2, Table 136.2-2)
The results remain similar as reversibility is still considered in the development of
assessment conclusions. If the concept of reversibility is removed and a worst-case
scenario is considered, the environmental consequence rankings for existing conditions,
Base Case, Application Case and PDC would range from moderate to high.
136a.3.3 Community Diversity
The detailed methods used for the alternate assessment for community diversity follow
those used in the Integrated Application. Data for the revised terrestrial local study area
(LSA) is provided in Table 136a.3-3. Data for the vegetation and wildlife RSA is
provided in Table 136a.3-4 (for vegetation cover classes) and Table 136a.3-5 (for
structural stage).
136a.3.3.1 Reference Conditions and Base Case
136a.3.3.1.1 Land Units and Old Growth
Reference conditions remain the same for the alternate assessment as the revised
assessment because progressive reclamation was not included. The large decline in old
growth forest from predevelopment to existing conditions is a function of existing
disturbance as well as a change in forest age structure related to the snapshot used (for
details, see the response to ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 199a).
136a.3.3.1.2 Rare Ecological Communities
One occurrence of the rare ecological community Alnus incana ssp. tenuifolia/Matteuccia
struthiopteris shrubland is present in the revised terrestrial LSA for predevelopment and
existing conditions.
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Table 136a.3-3 Changes in Community Diversity (Alternate Table 3-14)
Measureable ParameterPredevelop
ment(ha)
Existing(ha)
Changefrom
Existing toPredevelop-
ment(%)
Base CaseMaximumBuild-out
(ha)
Changefrom Base
Case toPredevelop-
ment(%)
ApplicationCase
ProjectMaximumBuild-out
(ha)
Change fromApplication
Case toPredevelop-
ment(%)
PDC(ha)
Changefrom PDC toPredevelop-
ment(%)
Land Unit
a1: Jack pine/lichen 2,726.4 2,693.1 -1.2 2,693.1 -1.2 1,731.5 -36.5 1,676.2 -38.5
b1: Jack pine –aspen/blueberry
2,231.3 2,190.7 -1.8 2,190.7 -1.8 2,233.4 0.1 2,208.1 -1.0
b2: aspen–white birch/blueberry
357.9 355.1 -0.8 355.1 -0.8 219.2 -38.8 218.8 -38.9
b3: aspen–whitespruce/blueberry
189.8 187.6 -1.2 187.6 -1.2 961.0 406.3 960.8 406.2
b4: white spruce–Jackpine/blueberry
270.6 268.1 -0.9 268.1 -0.9 904.0 234.1 893.4 230.2
c1: mesic Jack pine–blackspruce/Labrador tea
82.1 80.7 -1.7 80.7 -1.7 1,167.6 1,321.7 1,167.6 1,321.7
d1: aspen/low-bush cranberry 5,241.1 5,139.4 -1.9 5,139.4 -1.9 3,949.2 -24.6 3,923.3 -25.1
d2: aspen-white spruce/low-bush cranberry
718.7 709.0 -1.3 709.0 -1.3 3,651.8 408.1 3,637.6 406.2
d3: white spruce-aspen/lowbush cranberry
1,259.1 1,211.1 -3.8 1,211.1 -3.8 772.7 -38.6 758.9 -39.7
e1: balsam poplar–aspen/dogwood
3,467.0 3,392.1 -2.2 3,392.1 -2.2 3,029.5 -12.6 3,029.5 -12.6
e2: balsam poplar–whitespruce/dogwood
921.3 911.0 -1.1 911.0 -1.1 4,057.4 340.4 4,057.4 340.4
e3: white spruce/dogwood 257.1 252.6 -1.7 252.6 -1.7 110.8 -56.9 110.8 -56.9
f1: balsam poplar-aspen/horsetail
1,194.9 1,165.9 -2.4 1,165.9 -2.4 341.0 -71.5 341.0 -71.5
f2: balsam poplar-whitespruce/horsetail
272.9 269.0 -1.4 269.0 -1.4 140.0 -48.7 136.9 -49.8
f3: white spruce/horsetail 49.4 49.1 -0.7 49.1 -0.7 42.0 -15.1 42.0 -15.1
g1: subhygric black spruce–Jack pine/Labrador tea
326.5 322.1 -1.3 322.1 -1.3 1,429.2 337.8 1,415.8 333.7
h1: white spruce-blackspruce/Labrador tea
278.2 272.6 -2.0 272.6 -2.0 1,191.8 328.4 1,174.7 322.3
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Table 136a.3-3 Changes in Community Diversity (Alternate Table 3-14) (cont’d)
Measureable ParameterPredevelop
ment(ha)
Existing(ha)
Changefrom
Existing toPredevelop-
ment(%)
Base CaseMaximumBuild-out
(ha)
Changefrom Base
Case toPredevelop-
ment(%)
ApplicationCase
ProjectMaximumBuild-out
(ha)
Change fromApplication
Case toPredevelop-
ment(%)
PDC(ha)
Changefrom PDC toPredevelop-
ment(%)
Land Unit (cont'd)
Upland graminoid 2.3 2.3 0.0 2.3 0.0 1.3 -45.7 0.0 -100.0
Upland shrubland 330.3 322.3 -2.4 322.3 -2.4 160.9 -51.3 160.9 -51.3
Subtotal Upland 20,176.9 19,793.9 -1.9 19,793.9 -1.9 26,094.2 29.3 25,913.6 28.4
Forested bogs withoutinternal lawns (BFNN)
25.1 24.6 -2.0 24.6 -2.0 19.5 -22.5 18.5 -26.4
Wooded bogs without internallawns (BTNN)
820.6 810.1 -1.3 810.1 -1.3 320.6 -60.9 279.8 -65.9
Nonpatterned, open,graminoid-dominated fens(FONG)
484.8 479.8 -1.0 479.8 -1.0 94.1 -80.6 91.2 -81.2
Nonpatterned, open, shrub-dominated fens (FONS)
2,495.7 2,465.4 -1.2 2,465.4 -1.2 685.3 -72.5 610.0 -75.6
Patterned, open fen (FOPN) 57.9 55.7 -3.7 55.7 -3.7 55.6 -3.9 32.8 -43.4
Nonpatterned, wooded fenswith no internal lawns (FTNN)
1,632.0 1,600.7 -1.9 1,600.7 -1.9 558.9 -65.8 493.8 -69.7
Marshes (MONG) 526.3 521.1 -1.0 521.1 -1.0 391.6 -25.6 391.6 -25.6
Shrubby swamps (SONS) 2,289.2 2,254.9 -1.5 2,254.9 -1.5 4,929.0 115.3 4,928.5 115.3
Forested and woodedswamps- coniferous(SFNNcs/ STNNcs)
4,311.2 4,196.9 -2.7 4,196.9 -2.7 665.0 -84.6 620.0 -85.6
Forested and woodedswamps- hardwood (SFNNhs/STNNhs)
4,751.4 4,615.8 -2.9 4,615.8 -2.9 1,016.9 -78.6 1,016.9 -78.6
Forested and woodedswamps- mixedwood(SFNNms/ STNNms)
105.6 104.2 -1.4 104.2 -1.4 66.4 -37.1 66.4 -37.1
Shallow open water (WONN) 252.6 250.8 -0.7 250.8 -0.7 101.2 -59.9 99.9 -60.5
Subtotal Wetland 17,752.4 17,380.0 -2.1 17,380.0 -2.1 8,904.2 -49.8 8,649.4 -51.3
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
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Table 136a.3-3 Changes in Community Diversity (Alternate Table 3-14) (cont’d)
Measureable ParameterPredevelop
ment(ha)
Existing(ha)
Changefrom
Existing toPredevelop-
ment(%)
Base CaseMaximumBuild-out
(ha)
Changefrom Base
Case toPredevelop-
ment(%)
ApplicationCase
ProjectMaximumBuild-out
(ha)
Change fromApplication
Case toPredevelop-
ment(%)
PDC(ha)
Changefrom PDC toPredevelop-
ment(%)
Land Unit (cont'd)
Water and littoral 217.7 217.7 0.0 217.7 0.0 2,946.0 1,253.1 2,946.0 1,253.1
Mineral soil 2.8 2.8 0.0 2.8 0.0 1.2 -58.9 1.2 -58.9
Cutblocks 0.0 32.98 N/A 32.98 N/A 33.0 N/A 33.0 N/A
Disturbed land 0.0 722.44 N/A 722.44 N/A 171.3 N/A 606.7 N/A
Total 38,150 38,150 0 38,150 0 38,150 0 38,150 0
Structural Stage
0: Nonvegetated/Water 470.3 1,191.0 470.3 1,191.0 470.3 3,228.4 586.5 3,662.5 678.7
1: Sparse or bryoid 3.1 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.1 1.2 -63.2 1.2 -63.2
2: Herb 1,017.1 1,007.4 1,017.1 1,007.4 1,017.1 509.7 -49.9 482.9 -52.5
3a: Low shrub 4,855.4 4,794.7 4,855.4 4,794.7 4,855.4 1,679.3 -65.4 1,369.7 -71.8
3b: Tall shrub 4,795.1 4,693.3 4,795.1 4,693.3 4,795.1 17,202.1 258.7 17,428.0 263.5
4: Pole or sapling 30.2 29.3 30.2 29.3 30.2 2,888.0 9,448.4 2,887.9 9448.0
5: Young forest 6,606.9 6,476.5 6,606.9 6,476.5 6,606.9 4,873.8 -26.2 4,751.5 -28.1
6: Mature forest 16,770.8 16,412.1 16,770.8 16,412.1 16,770.8 5,753.5 -65.7 5,577.5 -66.7
7: Old-growth forest 3,600.8 3,542.8 3,600.8 3,542.8 3,600.8 2,013.8 -44.1 1,988.7 -44.8
Total 38,150 38,150 0 38,150 0 38,149.8 0 38,150 0
NOTE:
N/A = Not applicable
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Table 136a.3-4 Changes in Community Diversity in the RSA – Land Units (Alternate Table 3-16a)
Vegetation Cover ClassPredevelop-
mentExisting
Condition
Change fromPredevelop-
ment toExisting
(%)Base Case
Change fromPredevelop-ment to Base
Case(%)
ApplicationCase
Change fromPredevelop-
ment toApplication
Case(%)
PDC
Change fromPredevelop-ment to PDC
(%)
Coniferous – jack pine 118,757.4 114,423.7 -3.6 85,366.2 -28.1 85,203.8 -28.3 80,101.5 -32.6
Coniferous – white spruce 34,440.0 31,227.2 -9.3 28,715.5 -16.6 27,779.8 -19.3 25,581.2 -25.7
Coniferous – black spruce 2,807.4 2,374.6 -15.4 2,011.8 -28.3 2,008.0 -28.5 2,000.2 -28.8
Mixedwood – jack pine 71,888.5 66,639.6 -7.3 53,006.1 -26.3 52,768.3 -26.6 50,014.4 -30.4
Mixedwood – white spruce 66,610.2 62,683.5 -5.9 60,735.7 -8.8 57,805.0 -13.2 55,912.5 -16.1
Deciduous/ mixedwood–deciduous
170,504.6 149,929.6 -12.1 134,376.9 -21.2 122,416.2 -28.2 114,967.4 -32.6
Upland shrubland 18,805.5 13,413.8 -28.7 14,529.1 -22.7 14,200.5 -24.5 12,984.5 -31.0
Upland grassland 28,022.6 16,676.5 -40.5 13,767.1 -50.9 13,475.3 -51.9 10,370.4 -63.0
Subtotal Upland 511,836.2 457,368.3 -10.6 392,508.4 -23.3 375,656.9 -26.6 351,932.2 -31.2
Shrubby bog 48,570.4 45,232.2 -6.9 43,280.8 -10.9 42,910.6 -11.7 40,472.9 -16.7
Wooded bog 143,333.0 140,250.4 -2.2 132,107.9 -7.8 131,443.3 -8.3 128,244.2 -10.5
Wooded poor fen 44,452.7 42,877.0 -3.5 41,198.6 -7.3 41,184.4 -7.4 38,727.1 -12.9
Rich wooded fen 41,522.3 39,159.9 -5.7 35,729.0 -14.0 35,721.4 -14.0 34,175.8 -17.7
Shrubby fen 26,588.7 23,788.6 -10.5 20,807.3 -21.7 20,544.5 -22.7 18,868.3 -29.0
Open fen 48,101.8 42,895.1 -10.8 42,983.9 -10.6 42,567.3 -11.5 35,783.1 -25.6
Wooded swamp 212,105.7 202,372.1 -4.6 188,620.6 -11.1 183,703.4 -13.4 163,349.4 -23.0
Shrubby swamp 84,065.4 77,928.5 -7.3 71,933.9 -14.4 69,854.9 -16.9 61,411.9 -26.9
Marsh/wet meadow 11,460.8 9,201.3 -19.7 8,140.5 -29.0 6,474.2 -43.5 6,143.5 -46.4
Subtotal Wetland 660,200.9 623,705.1 -5.5 584,802.5 -11.4 574,404.0 -13.0 527,176.1 -20.1
Water 23,102.6 21,451.5 -7.1 21,966.2 -4.9 21,727.6 -6.0 21,267.2 -7.9
Mineral soil 420.1 146.2 -65.2 146.2 -65.2 139.3 -66.8 133.6 -68.2
Cutblock 0.0 12,922.6 N/A 23,893.9 N/A 23,864.7 N/A 23,685.7 N/A
Disturbed land 0.0 79,966.1 N/A 172,242.80 N/A 199,767.5 N/A 271,365.2 N/A
Total 1,195,560 1,195,560 0 1,195,560 0 1,195,560 0 1,195,560 0
NOTE:
N/A = Not applicable
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Table 136a.3-5 Changes in Community Diversity in the RSA – Structural Stages (Alternate Table 3-16b)
Structural StagePredevelop-
mentExisting
Condition
Change fromPredevelop-
ment toExisting
(%)
RNVCorrection
(%)
RNVCorrected
Change fromPredevelop-
ment toExisting
(%) Base Case
Change fromPredevelop-ment to Base
Case(%)
RNVCorrection
(%)
RNV CorrectedChange fromPredevelop-
ment to BaseCase(%)
0: Nonvegetated 23,102.6 101,417.6 339.0 N/A 339.0 185,299.4 702.1 N/A 702.1
1: Sparse or bryoid 420.1 146.2 -65.2 N/A -65.2 6,249.3 1,387.58 N/A 1,387.58
2: Herb 87,585.20 68,772.90 -21.5 N/A -21.5 67,698.0 -22.7 N/A -22.7
3a: Low shrub 75,159.10 69,020.90 -8.2 N/A -8.2 64,088.0 -14.7 N/A -14.7
3b: Tall shrub 170,873.40 104,264.90 -39.0 N/A -39.0 173,188.0 1.4 N/A 1.4
4: Pole or sapling 290,797.00 170,193.80 -41.5 4.8 -36.7 298,920.6 2.8 4.8 2.8
5: Young forest 172,378.20 349,150.10 102.5 6.6 95.9 163,536.7 -5.1 6.6 -5.1
6: Mature forest 204,846.90 294,033.60 43.5 -1.7 41.8 154,625.1 -24.5 -1.7 -22.8
7: Old-growth forest 170,397.10 38,560.00 -77.4 -4.0 -73.4 81,954.9 -51.9 -4.0 -47.9
Total 1,195,560 1,195,560 0 0 0 1,195,560 0 0 0
Structural Stage
0: Nonvegetated 23,102.60 212,094.2 818.1 N/A 818.1 284,510.3 1,131.5 N/A 1,131.5
1: Sparse or bryoid 420.1 5,844.6 1,291 N/A 1,291.2 4,904.4 1,067.4 N/A 1,067.4
2: Herb 87,585.20 66,212.6 -24.4 N/A -24.4 55,648.3 -36.5 N/A -36.5
3a: Low shrub 75,159.10 63,455.1 -15.6 N/A -15.6 59,341.2 -21.0 N/A -21.0
3b: Tall shrub 170,873.40 170,595.8 -0.2 N/A -0.2 159,180.3 -6.8 N/A -6.8
4: Pole or sapling 290,797.00 296,711.9 2.0 4.8 2.0 290,607.4 -0.1 4.8 -0.1
5: Young forest 172,378.20 159,220.1 -7.6 6.6 -1.0 152,173.5 -11.7 6.6 -5.1
6: Mature forest 204,846.90 142,485.0 -30.4 -1.7 -28.7 126,051.7 -38.5 -1.7 -36.8
7: Old-growth forest 170,397.10 78,940.8 -53.7 -4.0 -49.7 63,143.0 -62.9 -4.0 -58.9
Total 1,195,560 1,195,560 0 0 0 1,195,560 0 0 0
NOTES:
RNV = Range of natural variability
N/A = Not applicable
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136a.3.3.2 Base Case
136a.3.3.2.1 Land Units and Old Growth
With the removal of the PRM from the Base Case, there are no additional developments
in the revised terrestrial LSA other than the Project. Consequently, the distribution of
land units for existing conditions and Base Case are the same (see Table 136a.3-3).
For the vegetation and wildlife RSA, all vegetation types decline relative to
predevelopment as do structural stages. The exception is structural stage 3b and 4, which
increase, reflecting regrowth of existing and simulated cutblocks.
136a.3.3.2.2 Rare Ecological Communities
One occurrence of the rare ecological community Alnus incana ssp. tenuifolia/Matteuccia
struthiopteris shrubland is present in the revised terrestrial LSA for Base Case.
136a.3.3.3 Application Case
136a.3.3.3.1 Land Units and Old Growth
There is a decline in all vegetated cover classes and shrubby and forested structural stages
when compared with the revised assessment for the Application Case when progressive
reclamation is not considered (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.1).
136a.3.3.3.2 Rare Ecological Communities
Consistent with the original assessment, the occurrence of the rare ecological community
Alnus incana ssp. tenuifolia/Matteuccia struthiopteris shrubland is not expected to be
affected by the Project. For details, see the response to ESRD/CEAA Round 1 SIR 202.
136a.3.3.4 Planned Development Case
136a.3.3.4.1 Land Units and Old Growth
There is a decline in vegetated cover classes and shrubby and forested structural stages
when compared with the revised assessment for the Application Case when progressive
reclamation is not considered (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.1). The
alternate assessment values for the PDC are the same as for the refined assessment PDC
(see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.2).
136a.3.3.4.2 Rare Ecological Communities
Consistent with the original assessment, the occurrence of the rare ecological community
Alnus incana ssp. tenuifolia/Matteuccia struthiopteris shrubland is not expected to be
affected by the Project in conjunction with operating, approved and planned
developments. For details, see the response to ESRC/CEAA Round 1 SIR 202.
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136a.3.3.5 Effects Classification
For a summary of effects classification for changes in community diversity,
see Table 136a.3-6.
136a.3.3.5.1 Land Units and Old Growth
Although the details related to the percent change of various cover classes have changed
without the inclusion of progressive reclamation and the alternate Base Case and
Application Case DIL, the effects classification for community diversity remains the
same as those presented in the Integrated Application, the revised assessment
(see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.1) and the refined assessment (see
ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.2).
Details for old growth forest have not changed from the revised assessment when
progressive reclamation is removed. None of the reclaimed forested land was old enough
to meet the old growth definitions used in the assessment for the snapshot (2057).
136a.3.3.5.2 Rare Ecological Communities
No rare or special ecological communities will be affected by the Project in conjunction
with operating, approved or planned developments based on known information.
136a.3.3.6 Environmental Consequence
The environmental consequence ranking (i.e., high environmental consequence) for
community diversity remains the same for the Base Case, Application Case and PDC
across the:
alternate assessment (see Table 136a.3-6)
Integrated Application (see Volume 6, Section 3.7.8, Pages 3-98 to 3-99)
revised assessment that considered the revised terrestrial LSA (see ESRD/CEAA
Round 2 Appendix 136a.1)
refined assessment that considered the revised terrestrial LSA and no progressive
reclamation (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.2, Table 136a.2-2)
136a.3.3.7 Prediction Confidence
As in the Integrated Application, a moderate level of confidence is given to the methods
and results used to assess effects of the Project on community diversity.
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Table 136a.3-6 Effects Classification and Environmental Consequence Ranking for Community Diversity(Alternate Table 3-17)
KeyIndicator Duration Frequency
Ability toRecover
Percent Magnitude Change
EnvironmentalConsequence
FromPredevelopment
to ExistingConditions
1
FromPredevelopment
to Base Case1
FromPredevelopmentto Application
Case1
FromPredevelopment
to PDC1
Uplandcoverclasses
Long Isolated Reversible -40.5% (uplandgrassland) – high
-50.9% (uplandgrassland) – high
-51.9% (uplandgrassland) – high
-63.0% (uplandgrassland) – high
Moderate
Wetlandcoverclasses
Long Isolated Reversible -19.7% (marsh/wetmeadow) –moderate
-21.7% (shrubbyfen) – high
-22.7% (shrubbyfen) – high
-29.0% (shrubbyfen) – high
Moderate to high
Structuralstagecorrected forRNV
Long Isolated Reversible -73.4% (oldgrowth) – high
-47.9 (oldgrowth) – high
-49.7 (oldgrowth) – high
-58.9 (oldgrowth) – high
Moderate
NOTES:1
Magnitude of change for patch metrics follows Terrestrial Ecosystem Mapping Framework (TEMF) criteria and includes a low magnitude of change (<10%),moderate magnitude of change (10% to 20%) and high magnitude change (>20%).
RNV = Range of natural variability
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136a.3.4 Species Diversity
The detailed methods used for the alternate assessment for species diversity follow those
used in the Integrated Application. Data for the revised terrestrial LSA is provided in
Table 136a.3-7. Data for the vegetation and wildlife RSA is provided in Table 136a.3-8.
136a.3.4.1 Reference Conditions and Base Case
With the removal of the PRM from the Base Case, there are no additional developments
in the revised terrestrial LSA other than the Project. Consequently, the distribution of rare
plants for existing conditions and Base Case are the same (see Table 136a.3-7).
136a.3.4.2 Application Case
The effects on rare species for the alternate assessment Application Case are the same as
in the revised assessment (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2 Appendix 136a.1). The effects are
the same because the one rare plant occurrence that is affected by the PRM is in Project
assessment area (PAA), specifically the aerodrome.
The Project will result in a decline in seven of the nine rare vascular plant species, with
five of the rare vascular plant species being eliminated from the revised terrestrial LSA
based on known occurrences (see Table 136a.3-7). The Project will result in a decline in
all 19 rare bryophytes species, with 14 of the rare bryophyte species being eliminated
from the revised terrestrial LSA based on known occurrences (see Table 136a.3-7).
136a.3.4.3 Planned Development Case
Five of the nine rare vascular plant species are eliminated from the revised terrestrial
LSA by the Project based on known data. Of the five species eliminated from the revised
terrestrial LSA, four are tracked species (Carex umbellata, Dryopteris cristata, Elodea
canadensis and Sparganium glomeratum) (see Table 136a.3-8). Regionally, the Project
will eliminate three species (Carex umbellata, Dryopteris cristata and Sparganium
glomeratum) from the vegetation and wildlife RSA (see Table 136a.3-8), with results
similar to the Integrated Application.
All 19 rare bryophytes examined will decline, with 14 rare bryophyte species eliminated
from the revised terrestrial LSA as a result of the Project based on known data. Of the 14
rare bryophyte species eliminated from the revised terrestrial LSA, all but one are on the
tracking list. These species include: Blasia pusilla, Buxbaumia aphylla, Dicranella
cerviculata, Gymnocolea inflate, Hypnum pallescens, Lophozia guttulata, Lophozia laxa,
Riccia fluitans, Scapania glaucocephala, Sphagnum fallax, Splachnum ampullaceum,
Splachnum rubrum and Splachnum vasculosum (see Table 136a.3-8). Regionally, the
Project will eliminate three species (Buxbaumia aphylla, Dicranella cerviculata and
Splachnum vasculosum) from the vegetation and wildlife RSA (see Table 136a.3-8).
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-19
Table 136a.3-7 Changes in Rare Species in the Revised Terrestrial LSA (Alternate Table 3-18)
Species and Authority
Provincial/Global
Rank/List
ReferenceCondition
BaseCase
Change from ReferenceCondition to Base Case
ApplicationCase
Change from ReferenceCondition to Application
Case
Predevelopmentand Existing
MaximumBuild-out
MaximumBuild-out
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
Project MaximumBuild-out/Closure
Number Number Number % Number Number %
Vascular Plants
Artemisia tilesii Ledeb. S3/G5/W 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Carex umbellata Schkuhr exWilld.
S2/G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Chrysosplenium iowense Rydb. S3?/G3?/T1
4 4 0 0 1 -3 -75
Cypripedium acaule Ait. S3/G5/T 6 6 0 0 2 -4 -66
Dryopteris cristata (L.) A. Gray S1/G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Elodea canadensis Rich. inMichx.
SU/G5/T1
1 1 0 0 1 -1 -100
Physostegia ledinghamii (Boivin)Cantino
S3/G3G4/W
14 4 0 0 4 0 0
Sparganium glomeratumLaestad. ex Beurling
S1/G4?/T1
1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Spiranthes lacera (Raf.) Raf S1/G5/T 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
Bryophytes
Anastrophyllum helleranum(Nees) Schust.
S2/G5/T 5 5 0 0 1 -4 -80
Blasia pusilla L. S1/G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Buxbaumia aphylla Hedw. S2/G4G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Campylium polygamum (Schimp.in B.S.G.) C. Jens.
S3/G5/W 7 7 0 0 0 -7 -100
Dicranella cerviculata (Hedw.)Schimp.
S1/G5?/Y 2 2 0 0 0 -2 -100
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
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ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-20 October 2013
Table 136a.3-7 Changes in Rare Species in the Revised Terrestrial LSA (Alternate Table 3-18) (cont'd)
Species and Authority
Provincial/Global
Rank/List
ReferenceCondition
BaseCase
Change from ReferenceCondition to Base Case
ApplicationCase
Change from ReferenceCondition to Application
Case
Predevelopmentand Existing
MaximumBuild-out
MaximumBuild-out
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
Project MaximumBuild-out/Closure
Number Number Number % Number Number %
Bryophytes (cont’d)
Gymnocolea inflate (Huds.) Dum. S1/G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Herzogiella turfacea (Lindb.)lwats.
S3/G4G5/W 18 18 0 0 5 -13 -72
Hypnum pallescens (Hedw.) P.Beauv.
S2/G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Lophozia guttulata (Lindb. et H.Arnell) Evans
S2/G4G5/T 4 4 0 0 0 -4 -100
Lophozia heterocolpos (Thed.)M.A. Howe
S2/G5/T 5 5 0 0 2 -3 -60
Lophozia laxa (Lindb.) Grolle S1/G4/T 1 1 0 0 1 -1 -100
Riccia fluitans L. S2/G5/T 1 1 0 0 1 -1 -50
Scapania glaucocephala (Tayl.)Aust.
S2/G4G5/T 3 3 0 0 0 -3 -100
Sphagnum fallax (Klinggr.)Klinggr.
S2/G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Sphagnum fimbriatum Wils. inWils. & Hook. f. in Hook. f.
S2/G5/T 9 9 0 0 1 -8 -89
Sphagnum subsecundum Neesin Sturm
S3/G5/W 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Splachnum ampullaceum Hedw. S2/G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Splachnum rubrum Hedw. S3/G4/T1
1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
Splachnum vasculosum Hedw. S2/G3G5/T 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -100
NOTES:1
Change in provincial or global ranking relative to the Integrated Application (ACIMS 2013).
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-21
Table 136a.3-8 Changes in Rare Species in the RSA (Alternate Table 3-19)
Species and Authority
Provincial/GlobalRank
ReferenceCondition Base Case
Changefrom
ReferenceCondition toBase Case
ApplicationCase
Change fromReference
Condition toApplication
Case PDC
Change fromReference
Condition toPDC
Predevelopmentand Existing
MaximumBuild-out
MaximumBuild-out
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
Number Number % Number % Number %
Vascular Plants
Carex umbellata Schkuhrex Willd.
S2/G5 2 1 -50 0 -100 0 -100
Dryopteris cristata (L.) A.Gray
S1/G5 1 1 0 0 -100 0 -100
Elodea canadensis Rich.in Michx.
Notranked/G5
2 2 0 2 0 2 0
Sparganium glomeratumLaestad. ex Beurling
S1/G4 1 1 0 0 -100 0 -100
Bryophytes
Blasia pusilla L. S1/G5 5 4 -20 3 -40 3 -40
Buxbaumia aphyllaHedw.
S2/G4G5 1 1 0 0 -100 0 -100
Dicranella cerviculata(Hedw.) Schimp.
S1/G5? 2 2 0 0 -100 0 -100
Gymnocolea inflate(Huds.) Dum.
S1/G5 3 3 0 2 -33 2 -33
Hypnum pallescens(Hedw.) P. Beauv.
S2/G5 4 4 0 2 -50 2 -50
Lophozia guttulata(Lindb. et H. Arnell)Evans
S2/G4G5 6 6 0 1 -83 1 -83
Lophozia laxa (Lindb.)Grolle
S1/G4 3 1 -67 1 -67 1 -67
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
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ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-22 October 2013
Table 136a.3-8 Changes in Rare Species in the RSA (Alternate Table 3-19) (cont’d)
Species and Authority
Provincial/GlobalRank
ReferenceCondition Base Case
Changefrom
ReferenceCondition toBase Case
ApplicationCase
Change fromReference
Condition toApplication
Case PDC
Change fromReference
Condition toPDC
Predevelopmentand Existing
MaximumBuild-out
MaximumBuild-out
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
ProjectMaximumBuild-out/Closure
Number Number % Number % Number %
Riccia fluitans L. S2/G5 2 1 -50 1 -50 1 -50
Scapania glaucocephala(Tayl.) Aust.
S2/G4G5 17 12 -29 7 -59 7 -59
Sphagnum fallax(Klinggr.) Klinggr.
S2/G5 15 8 -47 7 -53 7 -53
Splachnum ampullaceumHedw.
S2/G5 10 8 -20 7 -30 7 -30
Splachnum rubrumHedw.
S3/G3 6 5 -17 5 -17 5 -17
Splachnum vasculosumHedw.
S2/G3G5 1 1 0 0 -100 0 -100
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-23
136a.3.4.4 Effects Classification
For a summary of the effects classification for species diversity, see Table 136a.3-9.
Although fewer rare species are affected by the revised terrestrial LSA, the effects
classification remains the same as in the Integrated Application and revised assessment
for the Application Case and PDC.
136a.3.4.5 Environmental Consequence
The environmental consequence ranking (i.e., high environmental consequence) for the
Application Case and PDC is the same across the:
alternate assessment (see Table 136a.3-9)
Integrated Application (see Volume 6, Section 3.7.8, Pages 3-98 to 3-99)
revised assessment that considered the revised terrestrial LSA (see ESRD/CEAA
Round 2 Appendix 136a.1)
refined assessment that considered the revised terrestrial LSA without regional
progressive reclamation for other developments (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2
Appendix 136a.2)
136a.3.4.6 Prediction Confidence
As in the Integrated Application, overall prediction confidence associated with changes in
species diversity is low. Confidence in the quality and quantity of baseline information is
considered low because:
rare species are difficult to locate and, as a result, are imperfectly detected
many rare species are considered rare because of under collection or uncertain
taxonomy and might be more common than considered
understanding of factors that control species, and particularly rare species, is poor
Confidence in the analyses is high because effects from the Project were easily
quantified. Confidence in mitigation is low, as mitigation options (i.e., transplants) are
considered to be experimental.
136a.3.4.7 Summary
Effects on species diversity are expected to be of high environmental consequence
because rare species are eliminated from the vegetation and wildlife RSA as a result of
the Project (i.e., Application Case) and effects are considered irreversible. This is the
same conclusion reached in the Integrated Application, though some details (i.e., number
of bryophyte species eliminated from the vegetation and wildlife RSA) have changed.
Project effects on rare plants are expected to persist beyond closure and be irreversible.
Effects are considered irreversible because the ability to successfully mitigate rare
species by propagating or transplanting is still being developed or is unknown for many
species, particularly bryophytes.
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
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ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-24 October 2013
Table 136a.3-9 Effects Classification and Environmental Consequence Ranking for Species Diversity(Alternate Table 3-21)
Key Indicator Duration FrequencyAbility toRecover
Percent Magnitude Change
EnvironmentalConsequence
From Predevelopmentto Existing Conditions
From Predevelopmentto Base Case
Magnitude of Changefrom Predevelopment
Rare plants Long Isolated Irreversible N/A N/A -100% High
NOTE:
N/A = Not applicable.
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-25
136a.3.5 Air Emissions and Vegetation Health and Diversity
The detailed methods used for the alternate assessment for air emissions effects follow
those used in the Integrated Application.
136a.3.5.1 Base Case
136a.3.5.1.1 SO2 Fumigation
About 993 ha (0.1%) of highly sensitive and moderately sensitive vegetation cover
classes fall within defined critical levels of SO2 for the Base Case (see Table 136a.3-10).
This includes 915 ha (0.1%) of vegetation cover classes with a high potential to support
traditional use berry species.
136a.3.5.1.2 NO2 Fumigation
Critical levels of NO2 on vegetation are surpassed in 321,619 ha (33%) when the
30 g/m3 critical level is applied (see Table 136a.3-11). This includes 245,017 ha (31%)
of vegetation cover classes with a high potential to support traditional use berry species.
136a.3.5.1.3 Nitrogen Deposition
Critical loads of nitrogen deposition on vegetation are surpassed in 73,416 ha (8%)
(see Table 136a.3-12). This includes 54,503 ha (7%) of vegetation cover classes with a
high potential to support traditional use berry species. No individual vegetation cover
classes are predicted to be surpass critical loads by more than 20%.
136a.3.5.2 Application Case
136a.3.5.2.1 SO2 Fumigation
The Project is predicted to slightly increase the area of highly and moderately sensitive
cover classes exposed to critical levels of SO2 relative to the Base Case
(see Table 136a.3-10). The area of vegetated land affected by SO2 fumigation increases
by 9 ha (less than 0.1%) relative to Base Case owing to Project emissions. This includes
an increase of 8 ha (less than 0.1%) of vegetation cover classes with a high potential to
support traditional use berry species. No areas of vegetation cover classes considered
moderately sensitive to SO2 emissions were over 20 µg/m3 at (i.e., value over 20 µg/m3
are limited to mine pits).
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
Supplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-26 October 2013
Table 136a.3-10 Area above SO2 Critical Levels by Cover Class – Base Case and Application Case (Alternate Table 3-24)
Cover ClassTotal AreaBase Case
(ha)
Area aboveSO2 Critical
Levels –Base Case
(ha)
Percent aboveSO2 Critical
Levels –Base Case
Total AreaApplication
Case(ha)
Area aboveSO2 Critical
Levels –Application
Case(ha)
Percent aboveSO2 Critical
Levels –Application
Case
PercentChange
above SO2
Critical Levelsfrom Base
Case toApplication
Case
Coniferous – jack pine leading1 85,366.2 520.1 0.6 27,779.8 523.0 1.9 1.3
Coniferous – white spruce leading1 28,716 0.0 0.0 2,008.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coniferous – black spruce leading1 2,011.8 0.2 <0.1 85,203.8 0.2 <0.1 0.0
Mixedwood – jack pine leading1 53,006.1 0.0 0.0 52,768.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mixedwood – white spruce leading1 60,735.7 0.0 0.0 57,805.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deciduous and Mixedwood – deciduousleading1
134,376.9 0.0 0.0 122,416.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Upland shrubland1 14,529.1 0.0 0.0 14,200.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Upland grassland 13,767.1 0.2 <0.1 13,475.3 0.3 <0.1 0.0
Shrubby bogs1 43,280.8 0.0 0.0 42,910.6 0.0 0 0.0
Wooded bogs1 132,107.9 314.0 0.2 131,443.3 318.2 0.2 0.0
Wooded poor fen1 41,198.6 80.6 0.2 41,184.4 81.3 0.2 0.0
Wooded rich fen 35,729.0 77.8 0.2 35,721.4 78.8 0.2 0.0
Shrubby fen 20,807.3 0.0 0.0 20,544.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Open fen 42,983.9 0.0 0.0 42,567.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wooded swamp1 188,620.6 0.0 0.0 183,703.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Shrubby swamp 71,933.9 0.4 <0.1 69,854.9 0.4 <0.1 0.0
Marsh/wet meadow 8,140.5 0.0 0.0 6,474.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Vegetated Berry-Supporting Land 783,949 915 0.1 761,423 923 0.1 <0.1
Total Vegetated Land 977,311 993 0.1 950,061 1,002 0.1 <0.1
NOTES:1 Vegetation cover classes with a high potential to support traditional use berry species
N/A = Not applicable
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-27
Table 136a.3-11 Area above NO2 Critical Levels by Cover Class – Base Case and Application Case (Alternate Table 3-25)
Cover ClassTotal AreaBase Case
(ha)
Area aboveNO2 Critical
Levels – BaseCase(ha)
Percent aboveNO2 Critical
Levels – BaseCase
Total AreaApplication
Case(ha)
Area aboveNO2 Critical
Levels –Application
Case(ha)
Percent aboveNO2 Critical
Levels –Application
Case
PercentChange
above NO2
Critical Levelsfrom Base
Case toApplication
Case
Coniferous – jack pine leading1 85,366.2 32,445.3 38.0 27,779.8 85,203.8 33,119.6 38.9
Coniferous – white spruce leading1 28,716 12,705.0 44.2 2,008.0 27,779.8 13,291.4 47.8
Coniferous – black spruce leading1 2,011.8 738.0 36.7 85,203.8 2,008.0 756.5 37.7
Mixedwood – jack pine leading1 53,006.1 31,874.2 60.1 52,768.3 52,768.3 32,484.5 61.6
Mixedwood – white spruce leading1 60,735.7 9,630.8 15.9 57,805.0 57,805.0 11,283.3 19.5
Deciduous and Mixedwood – DeciduousLeading1
134,376.9 56,664.8 42.2 122,416.2 122,416.2 60,477.8 49.4
Upland shrubland 14,529.1 6,404.7 44.1 14,200.5 14,200.5 6,860.8 48.3
Upland grassland 13,767.1 9,698.6 70.4 13,475.3 13,475.3 9,873.8 73.3
Shrubby bogs1 43,280.8 6,550.9 15.1 42,910.6 42,910.6 6,610.0 15.4
Wooded bogs1 132,107.9 22,400.6 17.0 131,443.3 131,443.3 22,680.0 17.3
Wooded poor fen1 41,198.6 4,891.1 11.9 41,184.4 41,184.4 5,096.8 12.4
Wooded rich fen 35,729.0 6,928.2 19.4 35,721.4 35,721.4 7,127.6 20.0
Shrubby fen 20,807.3 9,683.6 46.5 20,544.5 20,544.5 10,022.4 48.8
Open fen 42,983.9 13,837.2 32.2 42,567.3 42,567.3 14,368.5 33.8
Wooded swamp1 188,620.6 60,711.1 32.2 183,703.4 183,703.4 64,358.1 35.0
Shrubby swamp 71,933.9 34,575.2 48.1 69,854.9 69,854.9 35,557.8 50.9
Marsh/wet meadow 8,140.5 1,879.4 23.1 6,474.2 6,474.2 2,104.4 32.5
Total Vegetated Berry Supporting Land 783,949 245,017 31 761,423 761,423 257,019 34
Total Vegetated Land 977,311 321,619 33 950,061 950,061 336,073 35
NOTES:1 Vegetation cover classes with a high potential to support traditional use berry species
N/A = Not applicable
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
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ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-28 October 2013
Table 136a.3-12 Area above N-Deposition Critical Loads by Cover Class – Base Case and Application Case (AlternateTable 3-26)
Cover ClassTotal AreaBase Case
(ha)2
Area aboveN-DepositionCritical Loads
Base Case(ha) 2
Percent aboveN-DepositionCritical Loads
Base Case2
Total AreaApplication
Case(ha) 2
Area aboveN-DepositionCritical Loads
ApplicationCase(ha) 2
Percent aboveN-DepositionCritical Loads
LevelsApplication
Case2
PercentChangeabove
N-DepositionCritical Loads
from BaseCase to
ApplicationCase2
Coniferous – jack pine leading1 85,366.2 19,724.5 23.1 85,203.8 20,399.1 23.9 0.8
Coniferous – white spruce leading1 28,716 805.6 2.8 27,779.8 919.8 3.3 0.5
Coniferous – black spruce leading1 2,011.8 6.0 0.3 2,008.0 7.7 0.4 0.1
Mixedwood – jack pine leading1 53,006.1 5,240.5 9.9 52,768.3 5,250.0 9.9 0.1
Mixedwood – white spruce leading1 60,735.7 555.6 0.9 57,805.0 619.5 1.1 0.2
Deciduous and Mixedwood –DeciduousLeading1
134,376.9 5,552.4 4.1 122,416.2 5,605.1 4.6 0.4
Upland shrubland 14,529.1 734.1 5.1 14,200.5 784.7 5.5 0.5
Upland grassland 13,767.1 1,642.3 11.9 13,475.3 1,735.0 12.9 0.9
Shrubby bogs1 43,280.8 2,761.0 6.4 42,910.6 3,302.2 7.7 1.3
Wooded bogs1 132,107.9 9,531.6 7.2 131,443.3 9,875.9 7.5 0.3
Wooded poor fen1 41,198.6 2,743.5 6.7 41,184.4 2,986.4 7.3 0.6
Wooded rich fen 35,729.0 4,246.2 11.9 35,721.4 4,533.2 12.7 0.8
Shrubby fen 20,807.3 3,652.9 17.6 20,544.5 3,964.7 19.3 1.7
Open fen 42,983.9 5,098.1 11.9 42,567.3 5,289.0 12.4 0.6
Wooded swamp1 188,620.6 6,848.5 3.6 183,703.4 7,140.7 3.9 0.3
Shrubby swamp 71,933.9 4,272.9 5.9 69,854.9 4,437.7 6.4 0.4
Total Vegetated Berry Supporting Land 783,949 54,503 7 761,423 56,891 7 1
Total Vegetated Land 969,170 73,416 8 943,587 76,851 8 1
NOTES:1 Vegetation cover classes with a high potential to support traditional use berry species2 Includes a small area of land outside the vegetation and wildlife RSA
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ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-29
136a.3.5.2.2 NO2 Fumigation
The Project is predicted to slightly increase the area exposed to critical levels of NO2
relative to Base Case (see Table 136a.3-11). The area of vegetated land affected by NO2
fumigation increases by 14,455 ha (2%) relative to Base Case as a result of Project
emissions. This includes an increase of 12,002 ha (3%) of vegetation cover classes with a
high potential to support traditional use berry species. No individual vegetation cover
classes are predicted to be surpassed by more than 20%.
136a.3.5.2.3 Nitrogen Deposition
The Project is predicted to slightly increase the area of cover classes exposed to critical
loads of nitrogen (N)-deposition relative to Base Case (see Table 136a.3-12). The area of
vegetated land affected by N-deposition increases by 1%) relative to Base Case as a result
of Project emissions. This includes a 1% increase in vegetation cover classes with a high
potential to support traditional use berry species (see Table 136a.3-12).
136a.3.5.3 Planned Development Case
136a.3.5.3.1 SO2 Fumigation
Emissions from PDC are predicted to slightly increase the area of highly and moderately
sensitive cover classes exposed to critical levels of SO2 relative to Base Case
(see Table 136a.3-13). No areas of vegetation cover classes considered moderately
sensitive to SO2 emissions were surpassed as all values over 20 µg/m3 are located in
disturbed land (e.g., mine pits) following predictions made in the Integrated Application
when WRF was used as an input variable to air modelling.
136a.3.5.3.2 NO2 Fumigation
Emissions from PDC sources are predicted to increase the area exposed to critical levels
of NO2 relative to the Base Case (see Table 136a.3-14).
136a.3.5.3.3 Nitrogen Deposition
Emissions from PDC sources are predicted to slightly increase the area of cover classes
exposed to critical loads of N-deposition relative to Base Case (see Table 136a.3-15).
Some cover classes are exposed by more than 20%.
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
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ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-30 October 2013
Table 136a.3-13 Area above SO2 Critical Levels by Cover Class – Base Case and PDC (Alternate Table 3-27)
Cover ClassTotal AreaBase Case
(ha)
Area aboveSO2 CriticalLevels Base
Case(ha)
Percentabove SO2
CriticalLevels – Base
Case(%)
Total AreaPDC(ha)
Area aboveSO2 CriticalLevels PDC
(ha)
Percentabove SO2
CriticalLevels – PDC
(%)
PercentChange
above SO2
CriticalLevels from
Base Case toPDC(%)
Coniferous – jack pine leading1 85,366.2 520.1 0.6 25,581.2 468.7 1.8 <0.1
Coniferous – white spruce leading1 28,716 0.0 0.0 114,964.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coniferous – black spruce leading1 2,011.8 0.2 <0.1 80,100.1 0.3 <0.1 <0.1
Mixedwood – jack pine leading1 53,006.1 0.0 0.0 55,912.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mixedwood – white spruce leading1 60,735.7 0.0 0.0 35,771.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Deciduous and Mixedwood – DeciduousLeading1
134,376.9 0.0 0.0 10,370.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Upland shrubland 14,529.1 0.0 0.0 20,595.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Upland grassland 13,767.1 0.2 <0.1 6,142.1 0.7 <0.1 <0.1
Shrubby bogs1 43,280.8 0.0 0.0 18,866.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wooded bogs1 132,107.9 314.0 0.2 34,174.4 380.0 1.1 0.9
Wooded poor fen1 41,198.6 80.6 0.2 40,472.8 89.1 0.2 <0.1
Wooded rich fen 35,729.0 77.8 0.2 163,346.6 89.1 0.1 <0.1
Shrubby fen 20,807.3 0.0 0.0 61,408.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Open fen 42,983.9 0.0 0.0 38,725.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wooded swamp1 188,620.6 0.0 0.0 272,052.3 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1
Shrubby swamp 71,933.9 0.4 <0.1 12,984.5 1.0 <0.1 <0.1
Marsh/wet meadow 8,140.5 0.0 0.0 143.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Vegetated Berry-Supporting Land 783,949 915 0.1 708,861 938 0.1 <0.1
Total Vegetated Land 977,311 993 0.1 991,612 1,029 0.1 <0.1
NOTES:1 Vegetation cover classes with a high potential to support traditional use berry species
N/A = not applicable
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-31
Table 136a.3-14 Area above NO2 Critical Levels by Cover Class – Base Case and PDC (Alternate Table 3-28)
Cover ClassTotal AreaBase Case
(ha)
Area aboveNO2 CriticalLevels Base
Case(ha)
Percentabove NO2
CriticalLevels Base
CaseTotal Area
PDC(ha)
Area aboveNO2 CriticalLevels PDC
(ha)
Percentabove NO2
CriticalLevels PDC
PercentChange
above NO2
CriticalLevels FromBase Case to
PDC
Coniferous – jack pine leading1 85,366.2 32,445.3 38.0 80,100.1 34,875.7 43.5 5.5
Coniferous – white spruce leading1 28,716 12,705.0 44.2 25,581.2 12,910.0 50.5 6.2
Coniferous – black spruce leading1 2,011.8 738.0 36.7 2,000.2 938.5 46.9 10.2
Mixedwood – jack pine leading1 53,006.1 31,874.2 60.1 55,912.5 12,359.7 22.1 -38.0
Mixedwood – white spruce leading1 60,735.7 9,630.8 15.9 35,771.4 10,002.4 28.0 12.1
Deciduous and Mixedwood – DeciduousLeading1
134,376.9 56,664.8 42.2 10,370.4 7,447.9 71.8 29.7
Upland shrubland 14,529.1 6,404.7 44.1 20,595.2 12,453.1 60.5 16.4
Upland grassland 13,767.1 9,698.6 70.4 6,142.1 2,074.8 33.8 -36.7
Shrubby bogs1 43,280.8 6,550.9 15.1 18,866.8 9,860.1 52.3 37.1
Wooded bogs1 132,107.9 22,400.6 17.0 34,174.4 7,438.3 21.8 4.8
Wooded poor fen1 41,198.6 4,891.1 11.9 40,472.8 5,556.1 13.7 1.9
Wooded rich fen 35,729.0 6,928.2 19.4 163,346.6 61,499.8 37.6 18.3
Shrubby fen 20,807.3 9,683.6 46.5 61,408.2 33,355.5 54.3 7.8
Open fen 42,983.9 13,837.2 32.2 38,725.6 5,148.2 13.3 -18.9
Wooded swamp1 188,620.6 60,711.1 32.2 272,052.3 252,351.5 92.8 60.6
Shrubby swamp 71,933.9 34,575.2 48.1 12,984.5 6,972.2 53.7 5.6
Marsh/wet meadow 8,140.5 1,879.4 23.1 143.6 40.0 27.9 4.8
Total Vegetated Berry-Supporting Land 783,949 245,017 31 595,897 366,193 61 30
Total Vegetated Land 977,311 321,619 33 878,648 475,284 54 21
NOTE:1 Vegetation cover classes with a high potential to support traditional use berry species
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
Supplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-32 October 2013
Table 136a.3-15 Area above N-Deposition Critical Loads by Cover Class – Base Case and PDC (Alternate Table 3-29)
Cover ClassTotal Area2
Base Case(ha)
Area2 above N-Deposition
Critical LoadsBase Case
(ha)
Percent2
above N-Deposition
Critical LoadsBase Case
Total Area2
PDC(ha)
Area2 aboveN-DepositionCritical Loads
PDC(ha)
Percent aboveN-DepositionCritical Loads
PDC
PercentChange aboveN-DepositionCritical Loads
from BaseCase to PDC
Coniferous – jack pine leading1 85,366.2 19,724.5 23.1 80,100.1 19,166.6 23.9 0.8
Coniferous – white spruce leading1 28,716 805.6 2.8 25,581.2 1,682.1 6.6 3.8
Coniferous – black spruce leading1 2,011.8 6.0 0.3 114,964.5 17.0 0.0 -0.3
Mixedwood – jack pine leading1 53,006.1 5,240.5 9.9 55,912.5 3,797.2 6.8 -3.1
Mixedwood – white spruce leading1 60,735.7 555.6 0.9 35,771.4 648.8 1.8 0.9
Deciduous and Mixedwood –Deciduous Leading1
134,376.9 5,552.4 4.1 10,370.4 5,017.2 48.4 44.2
Upland shrubland 14,529.1 734.1 5.1 20,595.2 885.6 4.3 -0.8
Upland grassland 13,767.1 1,642.3 11.9 6,142.1 1,056.6 17.2 5.3
Shrubby bogs1 43,280.8 2,761.0 6.4 18,866.8 3,688.1 19.5 13.2
Wooded bogs1 132,107.9 9,531.6 7.2 34,174.4 14,075.9 41.2 34.0
Wooded poor fen1 41,198.6 2,743.5 6.7 40,472.8 5,161.0 12.8 6.1
Wooded rich fen 35,729.0 4,246.2 11.9 163,346.6 6,913.4 4.2 -7.7
Shrubby fen 20,807.3 3,652.9 17.6 61,408.2 5,117.4 8.3 -9.2
Open fen 42,983.9 5,098.1 11.9 38,725.6 3,454.4 8.9 -2.9
Wooded swamp1 188,620.6 6,848.5 3.6 272,052.3 8,800.9 3.2 -0.4
Shrubby swamp 71,933.9 4,272.9 5.9 12,984.5 6,092.7 46.9 41.0
Total Vegetated Berry-SupportingLand
783,949 54,503 7 708,861 62,941 9 2
Total Vegetated Land 969,170 73,416 8 991,469 85,575 9 1
NOTES:1 Vegetation cover classes with a high potential to support traditional use berry species2 Includes a small area of land outside the vegetation and wildlife RSA
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-33
136a.3.5.4 Effects Classification
136a.3.5.4.1 SO2 Fumigation
The Project will result in a small, incremental increase to overall emissions effects in the
vegetation and wildlife RSA. No individual vegetation cover classes are predicted to be
surpassed by more than 20%. This represents a low-magnitude change for existing
conditions as well as the Base Case, Application Case and PDC (see Table 136a.3-16).
136a.3.5.4.2 NO2 Fumigation
The Project will result in a small, incremental increase to overall emissions effects in the
vegetation and wildlife RSA. As there are some cover classes that are greater than 20%
within the critical level for Base Case, Application Case and PDC, a high magnitude
effect is predicted.
136a.3.5.4.3 Nitrogen Deposition
The Project is predicted to result in an overall change in area of vegetated land affected of
1% for the Application Case relative to the Base Case when the critical loads are
considered. The combined cumulative effect from background values to Base Case,
Application Case and PDC represents an effect that is greater than 20% for some cover
classes. This represents a high magnitude effect.
136a.3.5.5 Environmental Consequence
Although the area of vegetation affected by SO2, NO2 and N-deposition vary in their
details, the cumulative effects from the Project in conjunction with operating, approved
and planned developments remains the same as in the Integrated Application when WRF
is used as an input variable to air modelling and likely-to-be approved developments are
removed from the Base Case and Application Case. The exception is NO2 fumigation,
which is now considered a high magnitude effect.
Localized effects from air emissions are expected as a result of operating, approved and
planned developments. Effects are considered generally reversible in the long-term.
Following these assumptions, effects of SO2 fumigation on vegetation are considered of
low environmental consequence for all assessment cases (see Table 136a.3-16). This
conclusion is the same as the Integrated Application.
For NO2 fumigation and nitrogen deposition, Base Case, Application Case and PDC
effects are ranked as a moderate environmental consequence since some cover classes
surpass 20% by proportion (see Table 136a.3-16). This assessment conclusion is the same
as in the Integrated Application for nitrogen deposition and different for NO2, which was
ranked a low environmental consequence previously.
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
Supplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-34 October 2013
Table 136a.3-16 Effects Classification of Emissions on Vegetation (Alternate Table 3-30)
Key Indicator Duration FrequencyAbility toRecover
Environmental Consequence
From Predevelopment toBase Case
1From Predevelopment to
Application Case1
From Predevelopment toPDC
1
SO2 fumigation Long Continuous Reversible1
Low Low Low
NO2 fumigation Long Continuous Reversible1
Moderate Moderate Moderate
Nitrogen deposition Long Continuous Reversible1
Moderate Moderate Moderate
NOTE:1
Effects are considered generally reversible, yet some species may not recover
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated ApplicationSupplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
October 2013 ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-35
136a.3.5.6 Prediction Confidence
For the assessment of air emissions effects on vegetation, prediction confidence remains
the same as the Integrated Application and is considered moderate.
136a.3.5.7 Summary
The alternate assessment results in the same assessment conclusions as in the Integrated
Application.
136a.3.6 Conclusions
For a summary of the environmental consequence and prediction confidence for
vegetation, based on the alternate assessment, see Table 136a.3-17. These environmental
consequence rankings remain the same as in the:
Integrated Application (see Volume 6, Section 3.7.8, Pages 3-98 to 3-99)
revised assessment that considered the revised terrestrial LSA (see ESRD/CEAA
Round 2 Appendix 136a.1)
refined assessment that considered the revised terrestrial LSA without regional
progressive reclamation for other developments (see ESRD/CEAA Round 2
Appendix 136a.2) except for effects from NO2, which change from a low to moderate
environmental consequence.
Table 136a.3-17 Environmental and Prediction Consequence for Alternate Assessment(Alternate Table 3-31)
Key Issue Environmental Consequence Prediction Confidence
Change in landscape diversity Low to moderate Moderate
Change in community diversity Moderate to high Moderate
Change in species diversity High Low
Air emissions effects and vegetation health Low to moderate Moderate
136a.3.7 References
ACIMS (Alberta Conservation Information Management System). 2013. Tracking and
Watch List. Available at: http://albertaparks.ca/albertaparksca/management-land-
use/alberta-conservation-information-management-system-(acims)/tracking-
watch-lists.aspx. Accessed August 2013.
ESRD and CEAA ResponsesAppendix 136a.3: Vegetation Alternate Assessment
Frontier Oil Sands Mine ProjectIntegrated Application
Supplemental Information Request, Round 2
ESRD/CEAA Page 136a.3-36 October 2013