Download - ESMEC-ET Electric Portfolio Report
ESMEC-ET Electric Portfolio ReportApril 4, 2014 (Revised April 7, 2014)
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Contents
I. Supply Portfolio Results Page #
A. Key Performance Measures 4
B. Electric Supply Cost Chart – FY14 5
C. Electric Supply Cost Summary – FY14 6
II. Portfolio Hedge Strategy Review
A. Hedge Position Chart 8
B. Block Purchase Plan 9
C. Proforma Hedge Position Chart 10
D. Forward Market Price Reports 11-12
E. Hourly Market Price Reports 13-15
III. Portfolio Billing Rates
A. Portfolio Cost and Billing Rate History 17
B. Electric Supply Portfolio vs. DPL SOS Rate Summary 18
C. Working Capital – Billing Rate Comparison 19
D. Billing Rate Alternatives 20
E. FY14 Billing Rates by Rate Schedule 21
F. Proposed FY 15 Billing Rates by Rate Schedule 22
Appendix 24-31
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I. Supply Portfolio Results
4
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply PortfolioKey Portfolio MeasuresFebruary 2014
1. Total Supply Cost ($/MWh)
Actual O/(U) Budget Actual O/(U) Budget % O/(U) Budget
Unit Cost, $/MWh $97.22 $16.05 $101.72 $18.24 21.9%
Cost @ Volume** $1,223,728 $202,027 $10,671,974 $1,913,869 21.9%
* Subject to PJM 60 day settlement
** Represents unit cost variance to budget, does not reflect volumetric valariance to budget
2. Replacement Value - Blocks - Current Market O/(U) Hedge Costs ($MM)
FY 2014 ($0.15)
FY 2015 0.62
FY 2016+ 0.36
Total $0.83
3. Hedge Summary
Peak Off Total Peak Off Total
FY 2014 80% 75% 78% 87% 67% 79%
FY 2015 80% 75% 78% 83% 67% 76%
FY 2016 40% 38% 39% 42% 34% 38%
FY 2017 0% 0% 0% 21% 34% 26%
4. Actual/ Forecasted Supply Cost ($ Mwh)
Total
Supply Cost $/MWh %
FY 2013 $80.79 ($0.25) -0.3%
FY 2014 $100.00 $19.21 23.8%
FY 2015 $76.00 ($24.00) -24.0%
YR to YR Incr/(decr)
Feb 2014* FY 2014 - Feb YTD *
Minimum Guideline Actual
5
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
$105
$110
$/MWh
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio Cost FY 2014
Monthly Actual Prior Year YTD Actual Portfolio Budget Billed Rate
Jan 2014 =$165.97
6
Total Supply Cost, Cumulative FY 2014ESMECUpdated: 3/17/2014
Final Final Final Final Prelim PrelimSep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Cumulative
PJM Load Charges - WGESEEst. Meter Volume, MWh 13,168 12,780 12,121 12,957 14,869 12,587 104,918
Energy - DA & RT $184,061 $85,860 $97,227 $125,866 $1,261,487 $324,855 $2,377,817Ancillary Charges 109,059 110,636 88,411 88,887 275,366 33,603 826,801Transmission 53,252 54,996 53,211 54,964 50,562 45,939 422,978Capacity 232,311 239,098 231,728 237,776 238,594 215,257 1,875,366ARR/FTR & Marginal Loss (13,135) (12,669) (11,806) (13,722) (35,737) (18,617) (136,201)Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0 0
PJM Electric Cost 565,548 477,922 458,772 493,772 1,790,271 601,037 5,366,761
60 Day Reconciliation (Included in Energy & Ancillary Above) 60,422 (29,586) (3,820) (8,809) (83,021)
Bilateral Electric Cost 587,388 628,897 587,943 610,100 619,499 560,760 4,833,585
Other ChargesWGES Service Fee 14,604 16,343 14,880 16,269 18,094 15,317 131,511WGES Cost to Carry 0 0 0 0 0 7,568 7,568WGES Cost of Collateral 10,718 10,171 10,397 10,166 5,929 8,064 76,850WGES Fee for PES Block Delivery 2,448 2,530 2,451 2,530 2,530 2,285 19,832Renew able (RPS Requirement) 21,110 21,110 21,110 55,242 26,068 26,068 212,930Other Fees (MD PSC) 2,589 2,492 2,360 2,559 5,304 2,630 22,938 Subtotal 51,469 52,646 51,198 86,767 57,925 61,931 471,628
Total Supply Cost $1,204,405 $1,159,465 $1,097,913 $1,190,639 $2,467,695 $1,223,728 $10,671,974
Unit Costs, $/MWh Energy $58.59 $55.93 $56.53 $56.80 $126.51 $70.36 $68.73 Transmission $4.04 $4.30 $4.39 $4.24 $3.40 $3.65 $4.03 Capacity 17.64 18.71 19.12 18.35 16.05 17.10 17.87 Ancillary Charges & Credit 7.28 7.67 6.32 5.80 16.12 1.19 6.58 Renew able (RPS Requirement) 1.60 1.65 1.74 4.26 1.75 2.07 2.03 Other 2.31 2.47 2.48 2.43 2.14 2.85 2.47 Total Supply Cost $91.47 $90.73 $90.58 $91.89 $165.97 $97.22 $101.72
Expected Unit Price $79.64 $82.28 $79.59 $73.73 $84.86 $81.17 $83.48 Budget Variance $11.83 $8.44 $11.00 $18.16 $81.10 $16.05 $18.24
Hedge Settlement $135,648 $200,335 $171,267 $117,464 ($1,276,580) ($293,414) ($755,281) Unit Cost, $/MWh $3.27 $4.82 $4.12 $2.82 ($30.66) ($7.04) ($7.20)
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II. Portfolio Hedge Strategy Review
8
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
MWhESMEC- ET -Current Electric Hedge Status, 3/18/2014
Total Load Max Hedge Purchased Min Hedge
Based on FY 2013 Gross Annual MWhs of 168,000
Peak Off TotalFY 2014 87% 67% 79%FY 2015 83% 67% 76%FY 2016 42% 34% 38%FY 2017 21% 34% 26%
Actual Hedge %'s
9
ESMEC-ET Scheduled Block PurchasesAs of 3/18/2014
Block Size Target
Term MW Type Delivery Execution 3/14/14 2/14/14 1/6/14
FY 2016
7/15 - 6/16 5.0 ATC WH By June 2014 $38.87 $37.71 $36.85
FY 2015 - Winter*Recommended
Additional %
Month On Peak Off Peak Hedge On Peak Off Peak 3/14/14 12/3/13 Increase
Jan-15 77% 63% 3 MW ATC 88% 82% $56.37 $40.66 39%Feb-15 80% 59% 3 MW ATC 92% 77% $53.26 $38.53 38%
*Timing of FY15 additional winter hedges will be driven by market prices during Spring-Summer-Fall of 2014
Note: Congestion prices evaluated on an ongoing basis to determine purchase at West Hub or BGE Zone Delivery point
WH NYMEX Close as of:
Current Hedge Pro forma Hedge WH NYMEX Close as of:
10
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
MWhESMEC-ET Proforma Electric Hedge Status, 6/30/2014
Total Load Max Hedge Purchased Scheduled Min Hedge
Based on FY 2013 Gross Annual MWhs of 168,000
Peak Off TotalFY 2015 85% 70% 79%FY 2016 63% 67% 65%FY 2017 21% 34% 26%
Purchased & Scheduled Hedge %'s
11
12
13
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
ATC Average LMP-RT PJM Western Hub, 1998 - 3/2014
Avg-Monthly Avg-12 Mo
14
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Peak Premium Ratio- DPL, 2001 - 3/31/2014
Avg Monthly Avg-12 Mo
15
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
ATC Average LMP-RT PJM DPL Zone Basis, 1999 - 3/31/2014
Avg Monthly Avg-12 Mo
16
III. Portfolio Billing Rates
17
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply PortfolioBudget, Actual and Billing Rates($ kWh)
FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
Portfolio budget rate $0.0912 $0.0900 $0.1000 $0.1000 $0.0950 $0.0840 $0.0870 $0.0830 $0.0760 (Revised)
Portfolio actual/forecast cost$0.0876 $0.0993 $0.0976 $0.0919 $0.0940 $0.0810 $0.0810 $0.1000 (Revised) Actual o/(u) budget ($0.0036) $0.0093 ($0.0024) ($0.0081) ($0.0010) ($0.0030) ($0.0060) $0.0170
Approximate Weighted Average Billing Rates (1):
Billing months: Jul - Oct $0.0992 $0.0992 $0.1094 $0.1094 $0.0954 $0.0944 $0.0954 $0.0894 Approved Nov - Feb $0.0844 $0.0844 $0.0944 $0.0944 $0.0804 $0.0794 $0.0794 $0.0774 Approved Mar - Jun $0.0814 $0.0844 $0.0944 $0.0944 $0.0804 $0.0794 $0.0794 $0.0000 TBD
W/A billing rate $0.0885 $0.0894 $0.0995 $0.0995 $0.0855 $0.0845 $0.0849 $0.0000 TBD
FY 2014 if W/A Rate held at $.0774 thru June 2014 $0.0815
(1) Includes primary (GSP), secondary (LGS, SGS) and outdoor lighting (OL/ORL) rate schedules
Preliminary and forecast rates in blue
18
$0.07000
$0.07500
$0.08000
$0.08500
$0.09000
$0.09500
$0.10000
$0.10500
$0.11000
$0.11500
$0.12000
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Portfolio Cost Weighted Average Billing Rate DPL Standard Offer Service Rate
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Rates ($/Kwh)$/kwh
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Rates ($/Kwh)$/kwh
19
$0.050
$0.060
$0.070
$0.080
$0.090
$0.100
$0.110
$0.120
($1,000,000)
($500,000)
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
W/C Avg Balance Actual Cost ($/KWh) Billing Rate($/KWh)
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply PortfolioAverage Working Capital (W/C) Balances Held with Supplier $/KWh
Jan '14 $.166 KWh
20
2 B
End of Period Month Average End of Period Month Average End of Period Month Average End of Period Month Average
Fiscal Billing Billing Billing Rate Excess/(Deficient) Billing Rate Excess/(Deficient) Billing Rate Excess/(Deficient) Billing Rate Excess/(Deficient)
Year Season Months $/KWh Working Capital Balance $/KWh Working Capital Balance $/KWh Working Capital Balance $/KWh Working Capital Balance
FY2014 Winter Nov - Mar $0.0774 ($772,223) as of Feb '14 $0.0774 ($772,223) as of Feb '14 $0.0774 ($772,223) as of Feb '14 $0.0774 ($772,223) as of Feb '14
FY 2014 Spring Apr - Jun $0.0900 ($1,322,269) $0.0850 ($1,453,943) $0.0774 ($1,654,087) $0.0774 ($1,654,087)
FY 2015 Summer Jul - Oct $0.0975 ($214,054) $0.1000 ($309,953) $0.1000 ($609,510) $0.0910 ($973,750)
FY 2015 Winter Nov - Feb $0.0825 $426,171 $0.0850 $459,725 $0.0850 $160,168 $0.0910 ($91,274)
FY 2015 Spring Mar - Jun $0.0825 $976,723 $0.0850 $1,143,241 $0.0850 $843,684 $0.0910 $911,356
FY 2015 W/A Rate $0.0876 $0.0901 $0.0901 $0.0910
Cost of Carry on Deficient Working Capital Balances (Rate of .98% monthly or 11.76 % annually)
Cost of Carry Cost of Carry Cost of Carry Cost of Carry
FY 2014 Spring Apr - Jun ($39,048) ($40,990) ($43,942) ($43,942)
FY 2015 Summer Jul - Oct ($28,988) ($34,763) ($46,506) ($53,529)FY 2015 Winter Nov - Feb $0 $0 ($2,763) ($15,490)FY 2015 Spring Mar - Jun $0 $0 $0 $0
Total FY 2015 ($28,988) ($34,763) ($49,269) ($69,018)
Actuals = Black
Alternatives = Blue
FY 2015: Different Summer/Non Summer Rates FY 2015: Different Summer/Non Summer Rates FY 2015: Different Summer/Non Summer Rates FY 2015: Same Summer/Non Summer Rates
FY 2014: Increase Apr - Jun Rates FY 2014: Keep current billing rates FY 2014: Keep current billing ratesFY 2014: Increase Apr - Jun Rates
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio Billing Rate Alternatives
1 A 2 A1 B
April 4, 2014 (Revised April 7,2014)
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ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio Total Supply Cost Billing Rates by Rate Schedule ($ KWh)Fiscal Year 2014
Billing Period Summer Winter Spring
Status Approved Approved Approved
Supplier Billing Months July 2013 - Nov 2013 - Apr 2014 - Oct 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014
Meter Read Beginning: Jun 2013 Oct 2013 Apr 2014Meter Read Ending: Oct 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014
FY 2014W/A Billing
Delmarva Power Rate Schedule Rate
Secondary (SGS / SGS SH / LGS) $0.0900 $0.0780 $0.0855 $0.0845
Primary (GSP) $0.0875 $0.0755 $0.0830 $0.0821
Outdoor Lights (OL / ORL) $0.0750 $0.0630 $0.0705 $0.0696
Weighted Average Rate $0.0894 $0.0774 $0.0849 $0.0839
Estimated Portfolio Cost
Portfolio Forecast Rate as 3/2014 $0.1000
Original Portfolio Budget Rate $0.0830
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ESMEC-ET Electric Supply Portfolio 4/7/14Total Supply Cost Billing Rates by Rate Schedule ($ KWh)Fiscal Year 2015
Billing Period Summer Winter Spring
Status Preliminary Preliminary Preliminary
Supplier Billing Months July 2014 - Nov 2014 - Mar 2014 - Oct 2014 Feb 2015 Jun 2014
Meter Read Beginning: Jun 2014 Oct 2014 Feb 2015Meter Read Ending: Oct 2014 Feb 2015 Jun 2015
FY 2015W/A Billing
Delmarva Power Rate Schedule Rate
Secondary (SGS / SGS SH / LGS) $0.1010 $0.0860 $0.0860 $0.0911
Primary (GSP) $0.0985 $0.0835 $0.0835 $0.0888
Outdoor Lights (OL / ORL) $0.0860 $0.0710 $0.0710 $0.0761
Weighted Average Rate $0.1004 $0.0854 $0.0854 $0.0906
Estimated Portfolio Cost
Original Portfolio Budget Rate $0.0730
Revised Portfolio Budget Rate $0.0760
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Appendix
24
Annual $ Cost Incurred/(Avoided)
from Usage Purchased on the
Hourly Market
Cumulative MWhsAnnual $/MWh Cost Incurred/(Avoided)
Cumulative $/MWh
FY 2007 ($496,290) ($496,290) 136,575 ($3.63) ($3.63)FY 2008 $18,704 ($477,586) 158,298 $0.12 ($1.62)FY 2009 ($250,938) ($728,523) 157,558 ($1.59) ($1.61)FY 2010 ($804,674) ($1,533,197) 156,722 ($5.13) ($2.52)FY 2011 ($740,140) ($2,273,337) 173,168 ($4.27) ($2.91)FY 2012 ($503,003) ($2,776,340) 158,726 ($3.17) ($2.95)FY 2013 ($302,001) ($3,078,342) 158,068 ($1.91) ($2.80)
FY 2014 Thru Feb $323,627 ($2,754,715) 104,919 $3.08 ($2.29)
Footnotes
Based on the monthly unhedged volume (KWh) times the monthly hedge net settlement price ($/MWh) for the hedged volumes (KWh) each month
Monthly hedge net settlement price represents the difference between the fixed rate and hourly energy prices for the hedged volumes (KWh).
ESMEC-ETNet Costs Incurred/(Avoided) from Usage Purchased on the Spot Market (Hourly Prices)
25
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
kW
ESMEC Portfolio Hourly Load
Hourly Load 30 Day Average
RLR, 7/13 - 6/14 (through 12/13)
26
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
kW
ESMEC Portfolio Hourly Load
Hourly Load 30 Day Average
RLR, 7/12 - 6/13 (through 6/13)
27
ESMEC-ET - Open Block Purchase Transaction LogAs of: 3/18/14
Purchased Thru Pepco Energy ServicesPurchase Delivery Index Size Price
# Date Start Stop Type Point Settle (MW) ($MWh)5 11/23/09 Jul-13 Jun-14 ATC WH RT 5.00 $57.00
Purchased Thru Washington Gas Energy Services
7 9/12/11 Jul-12 Jun-14 Peak WH DA 5.00 $56.409 11/14/11 Jul-13 Jun-15 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $53.9511 9/19/12 Jul-13 Jun-14 Peak DPL DA 3.00 $49.1512 9/19/12 Jul-14 Jun-15 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $41.9013 3/15/13 Jul-13 Jun-14 Peak DPL DA 3.00 $52.6514 4/10/13 Jul-15 Jun-16 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $45.5515 7/2/13 Jul-14 Jun-15 Peak DPL DA 5.00 $50.0016 11/5/13 Jul-14 Jun-16 Peak DPL DA 5.00 $46.8017 11/20/13 Jul-16 Jun-17 ATC DPL DA 5.00 $40.25
LegendATC = Around the ClockWH = West HubDA = Day AheadRT = Real Time
28
($200,000)
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
Monthly Cumulative
ESMEC Electric Mark to Market, 3/17/2014
29
ESMEC-ET Electric Supply PortfolioCapacity and Transmission Tag Summary (MW)
Incr/(Decr) in Incr/(Decr) in
12/13 Year 13/14 Year
Cost ($) Cost ($)
11/12 12/13 13/14 MW % MW %
Unforced Capacity Obligation 35.7 33.8 31.4 (1.9) -5.4% (2.4) -7.0% ($119,381) ($214,791)
Incr/(Decr) in Incr/(Decr) inCal Year Cal Year
2013 Cost ($) 2014 Cost ($)
2012 2013 2014 MW % MW %
Transmission Capacity 30.0 26.7 24.3 (3.3) -11.0% (2.4) -9.0% ($74,246) ($57,451)
(1) PJM Year June 1 - May 31
12/13 o/(u) 11/12PJM Year (1) 13/14 o/(u) 12/13
Impact of Inc/(decr) in UCAP MW
Impact of Inc/(decr) in Trans Cap MW
2014 o/(u) 20132013 o/(u) 2012Calendar Year
30
$15.00
$197.16
$150.53
$196.54 $187.37
$116.15
$171.24
$248.30
$142.99
$166.08
$118.89
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
06/07 -Pre RPM
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17
$/MWDPJM - DPL Capacity Prices
Final Zonal Net Load Prices through 13/14, PJM Base Residual Clearing Prices thereafter
31
ESMEC-ET
Maryland Renewable Portfolio Requirements Actuals in Blue Based on Chapters 583, 556 and 653 enacted May 22, 2012 Estimates in RedRequired %'s Based on Grandfathered %'s per SB791Report as of : 3/14/14
Required % Amount
Total REC
Quantity (net)
Market Cost
($/MWh)
Market Cost ($)
Required % Amount
Total REC
Quantity
Market Cost
($/MWh)
Market Cost ($)
Required %
Amount
Total REC
Quantity
Market Cost
($/MWh)
Market Cost ($)
CY12 173,040 6.40% 11,075 4.15$ 45,959$ 0.1000% 173 170.00$ 29,417$ 2.5% 4,326 0.69$ 2,985$ 78,361$ CY13 171,402 8.00% 13,712 $15.67 214,819$ 0.2000% 343 $170.00 58,277$ 2.5% 4,285 $3.35 14,361$ 287,456$ CY14 171,402 10.00% 17,140 -$ 0.3000% 514 -$ 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ CY15 171,402 10.10% 17,312 -$ 0.4000% 686 -$ 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ CY16 171,402 12.20% 20,911 -$ 0.5000% 857 -$ 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ CY17 171,402 12.55% 21,511 -$ 0.5500% 943 -$ 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ CY18 171,402 14.90% 25,539 -$ 0.9000% 1,543 -$ 2.5% 4,285 -$ -$ CY19 171,402 16.20% 27,767 -$ 1.2000% 2,057 -$ 0.0% N/A N/A N/A -$ CY20 171,402 16.50% 28,281 -$ 1.5000% 2,571 -$ 0.0% N/A N/A N/A -$ CY21 171,402 16.85% 28,881 -$ 1.8500% 3,171 -$ 0.0% N/A N/A N/A -$ CY22 171,402 18.00% 30,852 -$ 2.0000% 3,428 -$ 0.0% N/A N/A N/A -$ CY23 171,402 18.00% 30,852 -$ 2.0000% 3,428 -$ 0.0% N/A N/A N/A -$
Total Market Cost ($)
Compliance Year
Usage (MWh)
Tier I SREC (minimum portion of Tier 1) Tier 2