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[email protected] Research and Projects
Russian oil Export in Baltic Sea transits
Stockholm 3 November 2005
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Russian/CIS oil
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Setting the Scene
I cannot forecast you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key? The key is Russian national interests.
Sir Winston Churchill, 1939
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Setting the SceneScene 2004
Russian oil prevented a 3rd oil crisesSafety record of tankers from FSU highEurope completely dependent on Russian oil
Change of Scene?
Scene 2005 Russian oil export slowing – tension in the oil marketSafety record continue to be excellent - no new major tanker casualties Increasing oil export from special projects (Primorks (soon peaking?), Sakhalin, Northern areas) and pipelines?Overinvestment in ice-classed tonnage?
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Oil Export
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World increase in oil demand supplied by FSU and the rest
mbd
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Others
FSU
51% 28% 97% 79% 178% 53% 25% 30% 28%
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World largest crude oil exporters - mbd
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
P0
5
Saudi Ar.
FSU
Norway
Iran
UAE
Nigeria
Venezuela
UK
Mexico
Kuwait
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FSU crude oil and products export - mbd
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 P05
Black Sea** Baltic Sea**
Druzhba Pipeline
**seaborne
Others
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European crude oil importmbd
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
1H05
Europe
America
Middle East
Africa
FSU
Others
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Sources of European oil import 1H05 – 12.9 mbd
Source: IEA
(The US 0.32 mbd from FSU 1H05)
4.4 mbdMiddle East
20%
FSU34%
Africa18%
Europe22% America
2%
Others4%
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Oil export from FSU 1H05
Source: IEA
OECD Europe
East Europe, others
China
N AmericaOECD Pacfic
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Market effect (pipeline effect) of one mbd transported various trades
324
338
328
46
314 billion tonne miles
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Ceyhan-US
Novorossisk- US
Ras Tanura-Yokohama
Nakhodka-Yokohama
Ras Tanura-China
bn tonne miles
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Safety Performance
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Tanker incidents World wide and FSU related
Collisions, grounding, Hull & Machinery, Fire & Explosions, others
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004 P05
Baltic/Black Sea/E Med
Total
Baltic/Black Sea/E Med
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002 P05
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Incidents
Oil export
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Tanker incidents and pollution Baltic, Black Sea, Bosporus, East Med
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
197819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
05
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000N SeaBaltic EastBosp/DardBlack SeaMed E/AegeanPollution
No. inc. Ts. pol106,000
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Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05tankers above 50,000 dwt
Baltic Sea Black Seam
dwt
m dwt
Source: Fearnleys/INTERTANKO
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
SH
DB/DS
DD
DH: 42% to 99%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
SH
DB/DS
DH
DH: 22% to 85%
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Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05tankers above 50,000 dwt
Baltic Sea Black Sea% %
Source: Fearnleys
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1Q00
4Q00
3Q01
2Q02
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
SH
DB/DS
DD
DH: 42% to 99%Source:Fearnleys
'
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1Q00
4Q00
3Q01
2Q02
1Q03
4Q03
3Q04
2Q05
SH
DB/DS
DH
DH: 22% to 85%Source:Fearnleys
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Tanker trade by hull -1Q04-2Q05tankers above 50,000 dwt
number m dwt
Source: Fearnleys/INTERTANKO
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0 SH DS/DS DH m ts
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Baltic transits18,000-50,000 dwt-2004-2Q05
Dirty cargoes
Source: Riverlake/INTERTANKO
Year Transits 65%
Transits 12 ms 100%
m cargo ts 65%
m cargo ts 12 ms 100%
2004 7.2 ms 160 405 4,875 12,330
2005 10.6 ms 86 165 2,545 4,893
Year Transits Transits 12 ms 100%
m cargo ts 65%
m cargo ts 12 ms 100%
2003 142 340 4,242 9,914
2004 299 460 8,676 13,348
2005 255 415 6,330 11,685
Clean cargoes
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Baltic transits18,000-50,000 dwt-2004-2Q05
Source: Riverlake/INTERTANKO
Clean cargoes
UK Continent 343 52%
Continent 115 17%
W Africa 55 8%
Mediterranean 34 5%
UK Med 25 4%
UK W Africa 5 1%
Others 87 13%
Total 666 100%
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Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05tankers above 50,000 dwt from Murmansk area
m tonnes
Source: Fearnleys
0
0.7
1.4
2.1
4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05
DH SS
13 1914 17 12 11
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Tanker trade by hull -1Q00-2Q05Aframax tanker – spot fixtures from Murmansk area
Source: Riverlake
Movements 2004 53
Movements 2005 39
Movements total 92
Russian ships: 48 (52%)
Average cargo size 99,377 tonnes
Average tanker size 109,078dwt
Average age 2004 2.6 years in 2004
Average age 2005 4.1 years
All double hull tankers
+ a limited number of small tankers carrying products (some 20/year)
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Oversupply of ice-class?
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Ice ClassNumber of Aframaxes available and needed for
Primorsk trade (including 1A/1B/1C tankers)Number
Source: Riverlake, Geneva
2003/04 addition 17 handysize tankers available1C tankers may have problems in January/February
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007
1C
1B
1A
Demand
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Conclusion
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Conclusion
Slower expansion in FSU oil export, but
Most Russian oil goes to Europe
Pipelines will in medium to long term take market shares
Safety record very good, trade served by modern tonnage
Many projects – uncertainty with regard to technical, geological, commercial as well as political factors