Download - Epistemic tools for chance-seeking
Epistemic tools for chance-seeking
Emanuele BardoneInstitute of Informatics, Tallinn University, Tallinn, Estonia
AISB Workshop - Bournemouth, 27-28 January 2014
Engaging agent-based modelers in conversation
1) Hypothesis generation2) Intervention3) chance-seeking
Hypothesis Hypothesis generationgeneration
Deduction of Deduction of consequencesconsequences
Empirical testingEmpirical testing
Hypothesis Hypothesis generationgeneration??????????
Is there anything like a “logic” of hypothesis generation?
Abduction as the “logic” of H-G
Hypothesis generation involves a specific form of (fallacious) inference - called abduction.
A fact, C, is observed.if H were true, C would be a matter of course.Hence, there is reason to suspect that H is true.
Hf1
f2
f3
f4
H is likely to be the case, because H explains the presence of all the relevant, known facts
Explanatory
value
Hf1f2
f3
f4
Intervening is still conjectural and yet has very little to do with inferring to the (best)
explanation
To search for the solution of a problem is an absurdity. For either you know what you are looking for, and then there is no problem; or
you do not know what you are looking for, and then you are not looking for anything and
cannot expect to find anything
The Meno’s Paradox
The role of chance events
A chance is everything that we cannot anticipate or predict. As such it hints at
nothing but our ignorance
Introducing chance-seeking
As soon as we intervene in the world, we inevitably have to engage with our ignorance
We can make use of our ignorance by tinkering on chance events
Chance-seeking as tinkering on chance events
To make use of whatever comes in handy
Adaptive, forward-looking
Clumsy solutions - kludges - yet workable and open to further improvements (if any)
Ambulatory knowledge (we know as we go, not before we go)
No foresight into the future