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ERG/200804
Energy sources for a secure (?) and clean (?) energy future
Larry HughesEnergy Research Group
Electrical and Computer EngineeringDalhousie University
Halifax, Nova Scotia, [email protected]
Presented to Atlantic Canada Association for Science Educators
Saint Mary’s University, Halifax
10 July 2008
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“To take concrete measures to save energy is not a matter of choice but a matter of survival.”
South Korean Prime Minister Han Seung-soo, 6 July 2008
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Energy sources for asecure (?) and clean (?) energy future
Larry Hughes, PhDEnergy Research Group
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringDalhousie University
http://lh.ece.dal.ca/enen
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Why all the fuss over oil?
Oil34.3%
Coal25.1%
Naturalgas
20.9%
Biomass10.6%
Nuclear6.5%
Hydro2.2%
Other0.4%
• Energy:– Over 98% of motorized
transportation– Space and water heating– Lighting and cooking– Electrical generation
• Non-energy:– Pesticides– Plastics – Cosmetics– Asphalt
Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics, 2006
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Oil production vs. consumption
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Bill
ion
(1
09)
bar
rels
Production
Consumption
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008
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World oil consumption: 1998-2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Bill
ion
(1
09)
bar
rels
World (14.6%)
OECD (9.2%)
EMEs (36.2%)
US (9.2%)
China (86.7%)
ME (39.6%)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008
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World oil consumption: 2005-2030
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
io(1
09)
bar
rels
World
Non-OECD
OECD
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2008
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Where will the oil come from?
• By 2015 the world will need another four billion barrels/year
• How?
– Saudi Arabia produces 3.5 billion barrels/year
– World production is declining at 5.2 percent/year (1.5 billion barrels)
– Many producing countries in decline (UK, Mexico)
– Non-conventional fuels (biofuels, tar sands, offshore, deep water) are expensive and cannot make up the shortfall
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Other issues
• Changes in the oil market:– Heavy-sour crude replacing light-sweet crude
– Exploration and development costs soaring
– Weakness of US dollar
– Tensions in Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela
• Growth in “resource nationalism”:– Russia/Gazprom vs. Shell and BP (TNK-BP)
– Venezuela vs. ExxonMobil, Chevron, Conoco-Philips
• State of reserves are unknown
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International Energy Agency’s Medium Term Oil Report
• July 2007:– “Supply crunch” starting in 2009:
• OECD production begins to tighten and fall
• OPEC spare capacity shortfall
– OPEC and Russia expected to pick up the slack
• July 2008:– OPEC spare capacity will drop to negligible levels
over the next five years– Non-OPEC supply growth will peak– World economic downturn will soften blow until
2011
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Natural gas and coal prices are rising too…
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Co
al U
S$/M
illio
n B
TU (
Re
d)
Nat
ura
l gas
US$
/10
00
ft3
(Blu
e)
Source: EIA
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The rising cost of home heating fuel
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$0.00
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00Ja
n-9
9
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
He
atin
g fu
el:
C$
/lit
re (
red
)
WTI
: US$
/bar
rel (
Blu
e)
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f in
com
eImpact of rising home heating fuel costs
Sources: CANSIM Upper Income Limits, V25731965; www.fuelfocus.nrcan.gc.ca
Q5
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1 average
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Energy security
• What:– The availability of a regular (i.e., uninterrupted)
supply of energy at an affordable price.
• Why:– Economic growth– Poverty reduction– Political stability
• Requires:– Supply – Infrastructure
Sources: IEA, 2001; “Energy Security Issues”, World Bank, 2005
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Approaches to energy security
• USA: – Military, trade, national production, biofuels
• Europe: – Russia, nuclear, biofuels
• China: – Long-term trade deals, takeovers
• Canada: – Not to worry, “bastion of energy security”
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Nova Scotia: Energy security and emissions
Oil178PJ Domestic coal
10PJ
Imported coal69PJ
Natural gas 5PJ
Hydro3PJ
Renewables17PJ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300
CO
2e
inte
nsi
ty (
kg/G
J)
Energy security index
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Offshore Nova Scotia
0.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Pro
du
ctio
n (
BC
F/d
ay) Sable (Actual)
Sable (NEB)
Deep Panuke (NEB)
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Can Nova Scotia rely on Canada?
• No significant energy corridors:– 300 MWel connection to New Brunswick
– Natural gas pipeline to New England
• NAFTA proportionality clause (Chapters 6 and 21) restrict reduction of energy exports
• Lower Churchill (2,300 MW):– Earliest completion date: 2015
– Competition for energy from other jurisdictions
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The four ‘R’s of energy security
• Review:– Energy existing supplies and infrastructure– End-use energy requirements
• Reduce:– Reduce demand– Conservation and efficiency measures
• Replace:– Replace insecure energy sources with secure ones:
• Diversify suppliers• Alternative energy sources
• Restrict:– New demand should be met from secure sources
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Review: It’s the end-use, stupid!
By final demand (PJ) By end-use
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Transport Residential Industrial CommercialInstitutional
Public admin
Agriculture
Coal
NGL
Natural gas
RPP
Electricity
Renewables
Transport67.5 PJ
Space heating41.1 PJ
Industrial34.6 PJ
Other31.1 PJ
Water heating10.2 PJ
Source: CANSIM, Table 128-0009
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Reduction: Heating
• New buildings:– 50 percent reduction vs.
existing buildings
– Building techniques and materials
– 5.2 PJ reduction
• Existing buildings:– One percent reduction per
year
– Conservation and retrofits
– 7.9 PJ reduction
• Ideally: 13 PJ reduction0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Spac
e a
nd
wat
er
he
atin
g d
em
and
(PJ
)
Source: Canada’s Energy Outlook 2006-2020, NRCan
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Replacement: Heating
• Reduction (13 PJ)• Solar (new buildings):
– 75% demand from solar – 3.9 PJ
• Solar (existing buildings):– 15% demand from solar– 7.5 PJ
• Wind heating:– 30% demand from wind– 15 PJ (1,900 turbines)
• District heating:– 1.5% demand from district heating– 0.7 PJ
• Biomass:– 20% from biomass– 10.2 PJ (700,000 tonnes)
• 12.5 PJ shortfall0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Spac
e a
nd
wat
er
he
atin
g d
em
and
(PJ
)
Source: Canada’s Energy Outlook 2006-2020, NRCan
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Reduction: Transportation
• 90km/h limit:– 7% demand reduction– 5 PJ
• Tune-up:– 10% demand reduction– 7.2 PJ
• Fuel economy– 0.5% reduction per year– 4.6 PJ
• 1% modal shift:– 0.5 PJ
• 5% modal shift:– 2.3 PJ
• 52 PJ shortfall0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Ro
ad t
ran
spo
rt d
em
and
(PJ
)
Source: Canada’s Energy Outlook 2006-2020, NRCan
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Replacement: Transportation
Fuel source Yield Requirements Comments
E5 (5% ethanol)Corn: 400 litres/t
5t/ha 42,900 ha 10.5% Nova Scotia’s farmland
10t/ha 21,467 ha 5.3% Nova Scotia’s farmland
E85(85% ethanol)
5t/ha 729,930 ha 179% Nova Scotia’s farmland
10t/ha 365,965 ha 89% Nova Scotia’s farmland
Coal-to-liquids(Fischer-Tropsch)
500 litres/t 2.5 Mt coal/yr 5.5 Mt coal/yr (2.5 Mt transport + 3 Mt electricity) or 40 years supply
Forest biomass(Fischer-Tropsch)
210 litres/t 5.8Mt biomass 145% of Nova Scotia’s forest yield (about 4 Mt/yr)
• Nova Scotia’s road transport demand: 1.228 billion litres of gasoline
Source: Energy Security and Nova Scotia, CCPA, Hughes
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Short-term issues will dictate policies
Energy costs are rising…
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Hea
tin
g Fu
el C
$/l
itre
(re
d)
WTI
: US$
/bar
rel (
Blu
e)
What can be done…
• Lower building temperatures?
• Switch to:– Natural gas?
– Biomass?
– Electricity?
• Subsidies?
• Requisition fuel?
• Rationing?
• Heat shelters?
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Nova Scotia’s dilemma
• Supply:– Overwhelming reliance on imported energy– Ill-prepared for rising energy costs– Limited domestic energy supplies
• Infrastructure:– Rising costs will limit actions– Other jurisdictions are facing similar problems
• Short-term issues will dominate:– Food and fuel costs will hurt many Nova Scotians– Energy security will trump emissions reduction– A cold and hungry voter is an unhappy voter
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Energy sources for asecure (?) and clean (?) energy future
Larry Hughes, PhDEnergy Research Group
Department of Electrical and Computer EngineeringDalhousie University
http://lh.ece.dal.ca/enen