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Effects of Climate Change on Pacific Northwest
Ecosystems
Dave Peterson
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Climatic Variability and Change – A Brief Introduction
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Radiative Forcing Components of Global Warming
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1.6 Watts
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Source: IPCC
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Average global temperature has increased 0.8°C since 1906.
IPCC (2007)
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Average global temperature has increased 0.8°C since 1906.
IPCC (2007)
Warmest 12 years 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
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Data source: IPCC 2001
IPCC “best estimate” range of global-scale warming by the 2090s:
1.8 - 4.0°C
Warming expected through 21st century even if CO2 emissions end today due to persistence of greenhouse gases
Projected 21Projected 21stst Century Global Warming Century Global Warming
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Projected Temperature in Northwest
Changes relative to 1970-1999
7.2°F
3.6°F
0°F
10.8°F
14.4°F
+1.2ºC
+1.9ºC (
+3.3ºC (
°C
Rate of change per decade expected to be 3 times greater through mid-21st century
Rate of change per decade expected to be 3 times greater through mid-21st century
Choice of emissions scenario matter more
after 2050s
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Winter windsand pressure over the North Pacific
Summer windsand pressure over the North Pacific
Aleutian Low Subtropical High
HH
LL
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El Niño Southern Oscillation
For the Pacific Northwest:Positive (El Niño) = Warm, dry winterNegative (La Niña) = Cool, wet winter
Southern Oscillation IndexSouthern Oscillation Index
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• An El Niño-like pattern of climate variability
• 20 - 30 year periods of persistence in North American and Pacific Basin climate
Warm, dryWarm, dry
Cool, wetCool, wet
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Droughts were more common prior to 1950
Gedalof et al. (2004)
Streamflow for the Columbia River, reconstructed from tree-ring data
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Why extremes matter
Standard deviation
1 in 40 yr high range
The distribution of weather events around the climatic average often follows a ‘bell-shaped’ curve.
Climate change can involve change in the average, or the spread around the average (standard deviation), or both.
A shift in the distribution
of temperatures has a much larger relative effect at the extremes than near the mean.
A shift of 1 standard deviation makes a 1 in 40 yr event into a 1 in 6 yr event
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3.6°F
2.7°F
1.8°F
0.9°F
cooler warmer
Temperature trends (°F per century) since 1920
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Nearly every glacier in Nearly every glacier in the Cascades and the Cascades and
Olympics has retreated Olympics has retreated during the past 50-150 during the past 50-150
yearsyears
Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS Glacier Group, Tacoma, WA
South Cascade South Cascade Glacier, 1928 (top) Glacier, 1928 (top)
and 2007 (right)and 2007 (right)
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Snow Water Equivalent Trends
• Most PNW stations show a decline in snow water equivalent
• Numerous sites in the Cascades with 30% to 60% declines
Decrease Increase
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Altered Streamflow• More winter rain, less snow → higher winter
streamflows• Warmer temperatures → earlier snowmelt and shift in
timing of peak runoff
+3.6 to +5.4°F(+2 to +3°C)
Projected streamflow changes, 2050s
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Forest vegetation varies over time
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The Disease Spiral
From Manion (1991)
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A pathological model is applicable to forest ecosystems
Warmer climate
Soil moisture stress (+)
Growth and vigor (-)
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Growth and vigor are affected by human-related factors
Exotic plants, pathogens, insects
Forest harvest practices
Air pollution
Fire exclusion
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Critical Threshold
Time
Temperature Increase
Climatic VariabilityCli
mat
eThresholds are important
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Pinyon pine - juniper Jemez Mountains, NM
October 2002
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Pinyon pine dead Jemez Mountains, NM
May 2004
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Climate change and tree growth
Subalpine forests
Westside forests
Low elevation forests
Mid elevation forests
Eastside forests
Subalpine forests: Less snowpack; longer, warmer growing seasons = Growth increase
Mid elevation forests: Warmer summers, less snow pack = Depends on precipitation
Low elevation forests: Warmer summers, less snow pack = Large growth decrease
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Species responsesAnnuals & weedy species ↑Deciduous and sprouting species ↑Fire-sensitive species ↓Specialists with restricted ranges ↓
Climate changeWarmer temperatureMore severe droughts
Fire resets succession, alters temporal scale of fire rotation.
Mature trees buffer effects of warmer climate without disturbance.
Habitat changesLandscape homogeneity ↑Fire-adapted species ↑Forest cover ↓Species refugia ↓
New fire regimesFire frequency ↑Extreme events ↑Area burned ↑
Disturbance drives ecosystem change
The disturbance pathway is faster
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How will climate change affect wildfire?
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Area burned – Western U.S., 1916 - 2007
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Area burned – Western U.S., 1916 - 2007
Fire suppression Fire exclusion Fuel accumulation
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Cool PDOWarm PDO Warm PDO
Area burned – Western U.S., 1916 - 2007
Fire suppression Fire exclusion Fuel accumulation
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Cool PDOWarm PDO Warm PDO
Area burned – Western U.S., 1916 - 2007
Fire suppression Fire exclusion Fuel accumulation
Lots of fire Much less fire Lots of fire
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Years with fire area > 80,000 hectares
National Forest data, 1916-2007
Warm-phase PDO Cool-phase PDO
Idaho 15 7
Oregon 14 5
Washington 11 2
TOTAL 40 (74%) 14 (26%)
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Future wildfire?
McKenzie et al. (2004), Conservation Biology 18:890-902
Analysis of wildfire data since 1916 for the 11 contiguous Western states shows that for a 2.0oC increase that annual area burned will be 2-3 times higher.
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Fire – a component of stress complexes
Lodgepole pine forest
McKenzie et al. (2009)
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Effects of temperature increase on mountain pine beetle
• Population synchronized by temperature (onset of spring)
• Rate of generation turnover increases with temperature increase
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Tree Mortality
Mountain Pine Beetle
Shaded areas show locations where trees were killed. Intensity of damage is variable and not all trees in shaded areas are dead. www.fs.fed.us/r6/nr/fid/data.shtml
1980 - 2004
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Mountain Pine Beetle outbreaks British Columbia
Courtesy of Mike Bradley, Canfor Corporation
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Forest carbon budgetsStorage (quantity) vs. uptake (rate)
Young forest Storage Uptake Mg/ha Mg/ha/yr
50-100 5-10
Old forest 400-1000 + 1.0
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Options for planners and resource managers???