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“Avoiding a Global Workforce Meltdown”
Agenda
Part I: 2010 Issues
Part II. 2010 Solutions
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Part I: 2010 Issues
• Demographics
• Technology
• “The Unflat World” ―
Education Critical Mass
• Help Wanted: Worldwide
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World Demographics
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Ratio of population 65+ to that ages 20-64
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2050
JapanEUGermanyOECDU.S.France
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Median Age in Selected Countries(2000, 2025,and 2050)
2000 2025 2050
United States 35.5 39.3 40.7
France 37.6 43.3 45.2
Germany 40.1 48.5 50.9
Japan 41.2 50.0 53.1
China 30.0 39.0 43.8
India 23.7 31.3 38.0
Source: United Nations, 2001
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Canada50%+
Increase in Workers
Aged 55-64
Over the Next 10 Years
Source: Forum of Labour Market Members (FLMM)
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Canada
48%Labour Market Population
Aged 45-64
Over the Next 10 Years
Source: Forum of Labour Market Members (FLMM)
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U.S. Workforce between 2010 & 2020
70 Million retire from the workforce
40 Million enter the workforce
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, 2005.
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Growth of U.S. Population Age 65+
33343536373839404142434445464748495051525354
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
U.S. Population over 65(in millions)
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Change in U.S. Population2000-2020
7 5 7 -10 3
73
54
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percent
Under14
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 &older
Age GroupSource: U.S. Census Bureau
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Annual Growth Rates ofU.S. Labor Force 1950-2030
.03%.04%
1.1%
1.7%
2.6%
1.6%
1.1% 1.1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
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Jobs & the EconomyA Century of Transition
“Old” America Transitional “New” America(20th Century) Events (21st Century)
Mass Production 1970s High Tech =Low-Skill/ PCs Introduced High-Skill/High-WageHigh-Wage Jobs Jobs
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What Does It Mean To Be
A “Skilled Person”?
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Late 1800s Able to write your name
1930s Three of more years of schooling(Civilian Conservation Corps)
WWII Fourth-grade education (Army)
1947 Five or more years of school(Census Bureau)
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1952 Six or more years of school(Census Bureau)
1960 Eighth-grade education(U.S. Office of Education)
21st Century High school education plus(U.S. Office of Education & the Conference Board)
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Education Critical Mass
The Unflat World
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Unflat World2003 PISA Rankings of Selected Nations
Country Math Reading ScienceFinland 1 1 1South Korea 2 2 3Japan 4 12 2Canada 5 3 8Germany 16 18 15Poland 21 13 16United States 24 15 19
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55% of
Canadian 15 Year-Old Students
Read Below Grade Level
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66% of
U.S. Students
Grades 1-12
Read Below Grade Level
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Adult Literacy & Life Skills Survey 2003
Conducted by the OECD & Statistics Canada
First report: Learning A Living (2005)
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Unflat WorldNumeracy (% of adults at each level)Country Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5
Bermuda 21.4 32.7 29.9 16.0
Canada 19.5 30.3 33.4 16.9
Italy 43.5 36.7 16.8 3.0
Norway 10.6 29.6 41.5 18.6
Switzerland 8.6 30.7 37.8 22.9
U.S. 26.8 31.8 28.8 12.7
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Unflat WorldProse Literacy (% of adults at each level)Country Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5
Bermuda 12.5 25.6 35.6 26.3
Canada 14.6 27.3 38.6 19.5
Italy 47.0 32.5 17.0 3.5
Norway 7.9 26.2 45.3 20.6
Switzerland 15.9 36.3 35.7 12.1
U.S. 20.0 33.6 34.6 12.8
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Education Critical Mass
India CanadaPopulation 1.1B (Est.) 32M
Literate
Adult 61.0% 97.7%
Youth 76.4% 99.6%
Women Illiterate 51% 2.8%
Source: UNESCO, 2002-04
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Education Critical Mass
IndiaCanada
Primary School Enroll. 1 89% 95%
Second. School Enroll. 1 51% 91%
College Enroll. 1 12% 70%
GDP Spend on all Educ.2 4.2%3 7.3%1UNESCO 2002-03
2OECD, 2004
3Majority Spent on Higher Education.
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Education Critical Mass
China Canada
Population 1.4B 32M
Literate
Adult 90.9% 97.7%
Youth 98.9% 99.6%Source: UNESCO, 2002-03
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Education Critical MassChina
CanadaPrimary School Enroll. 1 94% 95%
Second. School Enroll. 1 69% 91%
College Enroll. 1 19% 70%
GDP Spend on all Educ.2 2% 7.3%1UNESCO 2002-032OECD, 2004
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Help Wanted Worldwide
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“Smart People” Deficit 2020
Worldwide Estimate ― 32-39 million jobs Country Breakdowns:
U.S. – 17 million
Japan – 9 million
Russia – 6 million
France – 3 million
Germany – 3 million
Britain – 2 million
Source: All India Management Association, 2003.
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12+ Million Canadian Workers
LackReading
Writing
Math
Skills to do their jobs properly
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Canada44%
Canadians Aged 56-65
Unable to Meet
Labor Market Education Levels
Source: Forum of Labour Market Members (FLMM)
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Canada60%
New Jobs Require
A Post-Secondary
Education Component
Source: Forum of Labour Market Members (FLMM)
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Percent of Adults Ages 16-65 atLevels 1 and 2 (IALSS, 2003)
0%10%20%
30%40%50%
60%70%
80%90%
100%
Canada Ontario Quebec Alberta BC
ProseDocumentNumeracy
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Percent of Population 16 & Over at Prose Literacy Levels 1 & 2
1994 2003
CANADA 48% 48%
Ontario 47% 48%
Quebec 54% 55%
Alberta 36% 40%
British Columbia 43% 40%
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U.S. Jobs Shifts 2000-2020(In Millions)
Job Categories 2000 2010 2020
Professionals/Executives 44 52 60
Sales, Technical 42 50 60
Tech Support/ Skilled Craft 22 29 43
Low End Service 20 25 27
Other Low Skill Jobs 24 21 17Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005
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Predicted 2010 Labor Shortages • 1,000,000 Nurses• 50,000 Clinical Pathologists• 10,000 Dentists• 7,000 Air Traffic Controllers• 50,000 Auto Mechanics• 1,000,000 Math, Science & Special Ed
Teachers• 1,000,000 Computer Engineers & Support
Personnel
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+14% Increase in Literacy Skills
Needed for
All U.S. Occupations
(1996-2006)Source: Barton, 2000
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25Fastest Growing U.S. Occupations
Demand High Literacy
Source: Barton, 2000
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25Fastest Declining Occupations
in the U.S.
Have Low Literacy Requirements
Source: Barton, 2000
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Halton RegionTop Growth Enterprises
1. Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
2. *Construction
3. Management of Enterprises
4. Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
5. Administrative & Support
6. *Transportation & Warehousing
7. Manufacturing
8. Finance & InsuranceSource: Statistics Canada
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Canadian Workforce
1. Smart People (25%)
2. The Walking Dead (25%)
3. Techno-Peasants (50%)
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The “Walking Dead”
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Techno-Peasants
Matching high-tech jobs with ill-prepared workers
“In 2020, there will be two distinctly disparate social segments: college-educated information pushers . . . and manual laborers with corresponding demarcations in race and status.”
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“Smart People”
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Labour Force by EducationHalton Region & Ontario 2001
Halton Ontario
Less than High School Certificate 15.7% 19.7%
High School Certificate only 13.3% 15.0%
Some Post Secondary 12.8% 12.5%
Total 41.8% 47.2%
Source: Statistics Canada
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U.S. “Smart People” Deficits
Year Deficits
2010 5M1
2020 12-17M2
2030 35M3
1U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2005
2Anthony P. Carnavale, 2002
3Manpower, 2001
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Small Business:Unfilled Positions Near Record High
Businesses Hiring orAttempting to Hire 50%
Reporting Few or
Unqualified Applicants 80%
Firms with One or More
Unfilled Positions 31%
Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses (NIFB), April 2006
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“There is a supply problem in
our labor markets.”- William Dunkelberg, Chief
Economist
National Federation of Independent
Businesses
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Shopping the World
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Outsourcing
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H-1B Visa
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Reality Check
India outsourcing:
131,000 U.S. jobs
United Kingdom outsourcing:
1,100,000+ U.S. jobs
Source: OECD, 2005
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Reality Check
China outsourcing:
344,000 U.S. jobs
Canada outsourcing:
1,000,000+ U.S. jobs
Source: OECD, 2005
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The 2010 Meltdown
“If a country’s workforce contracts and its smart people decrease, then the economy will shrink”
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The Technology Paradox
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Technology Globalization
The 2010 Meltdown
DemographicsEducation andCareer Skills
EmploymentHigh Wage/High Skill
orLow/Wage/Low Skill
EconomyExpands or Contracts
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Agenda2010 Solutions
1. Business Culture
2. Career Culture
3. Mobilizing Community Culture
4. The 2010 Challenge & Beyond
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Viewpoints on Change
“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”
Leo Tolstoy
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Business Culture
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Life-Time Mean Training Hours
All Levels Drop Outs
High School Grads
Some College
CollegeGrads
Canada 2109 1115 1420 2863 5444
Germany 1833 1397 2361 2027 2668
United
Kingdom
1666 926 1937 3331 3339
United
States
1403 364 1116 1575 2523
Source: OECD and Statistics Canada, International Adult Literacy Survey, 1994-95.
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U.S. BusinessTraining & Development Expenditures
Year $ (Billion) +/- % Rounded
1990 45.5 ▬
1995 52.2 +15
1996 59.8 +15
1997 58.6 -2
1998 60.7 +4
1999 62.5 +3
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U.S. BusinessTraining & Development Expenditures
Year $ (Billion) +/- % Rounded
2000 54.0 -14
2001 56.8 +5
2002 54.2 -5
2003 51.3 -5
2004 51.4 ▬
Source: Annual Industry Reports,” Training
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Practicing the “Sixth Discipline”
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The Learning Organization
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Corporate University
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1. Intel
2.McDonald’s
3.Harley-Davidson
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1.Lumonics
2. Dofasco
3. Metra
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What Business Needs:
A Measurable Definable Process
that is Transferable
Return-on-Investment (ROI)
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The Sixth Discipline’s“ Winning Formula”
High-Tech Highly Increased IncreasedWorkplace + Educated = People + Profit
Workers Productivity
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Career Culture
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Career Education
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Human Ability Areas
1. Linguistics
2. Logical-Mathematical
3. Spatial
4. Musical
5. Bodily Fine-Gross Motor
6. Interpersonal
7. Intrapersonal
Source: Robert J. Sternberg, 1996
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Then
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Now
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Germany
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Dresden
Dual System
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Mobilizing Community Culture
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Non-Governmental Organizations
(NGOs)
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Community development starts at the grass roots
Formula for Success:People plus Ideas plus the right resources
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How to get started?
OVERCOME three clichés
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1. “Timing is everything”(Take action during a crisis)
2. “It’s WHO you know”(Networking)
3. “It takes two to tango”(Giving up some turf)
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Timing Is EverythingTaking Action During a Crisis
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Santa Ana, California
Research Center Workforce Institute High School, Inc.
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It’s Who You Know
Centre of Excellence in
Petroleum Development(Nova Scotia, Canada)
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Career Culture Education Culture
The 2010 Challenge and Beyond
Education Prep.and
Lifelong Learning
Career and JobAlternatives
EmploymentHigh Wage/High Skill
orLow/Wage/Low Skill
Business Culture
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The “C” (Culture) Factor
Culture X Literacy = Education X Marketplace = GDP
C = A nation’s attitudes & motivation on the importance of personal learning & applying it throughout life.
L = Personal reading practices & formal schooling.
E = The “critical mass” of a nation’s knowledge.
M = The socioeconomic forces driving business, government and non-profit activities.
GDP = Gross Domestic Product: The wealth of a nation.
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Viewpoints on Change
“You must be the change you wish to see in the world.”
Mahatma Gandhi
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Today
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Tomorrow
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Business Educators
The 2010 Solution
EmploymentHigh Wage/High Skill
EconomyExpands
Labor
NGOIntermediary Agency
Liberal Arts Education& Career Prep.
Incumbent WorkerLifelong Learning
Parents & Students Government
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Dr. Edward E. Gordon
www.imperialcorp.com
312-664-5196