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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK:
IMPLICATIONS FOR AG
LENDERSRemarks by Mark PearsonIndependent Community Bankers
Nashville, TennesseeMarch 12, 2012
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Gross Fed. Debt FY-1900 to FY-2016
Source: usgovernmentspending.com
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U.S. National Debt
Source: U.S. Treasury, CBO
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Thoughts on the World Economy
Source: CIA Factbook
• $71.25 trillion – Global GDP• $14.89 trillion – EU GDP• $14.72 trillion – U.S. GDP• $9.87 trillion – China GDP• $4.33 trillion – Japan GDP• $4.04 trillion – India GDP
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U.S. GDP – FY2004-FY2014
Source: usgovernmentspending.com
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World Real GDP Growth 1980-2013
Source: Int’l Monetary Fund
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U.S. Consumer Confidence
Source: University of Michigan
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New Housing Starts
Source: U.S. Census of Bureau
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ New Orders 2010-11
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DJIA Five-Year Performance
Source: finance.yahoo.com
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10-Year Treasury Note Yield
Source: finance.yahoo.com
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Five-Year U.S. Dollar Index
Source: NYBOT
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Source: kitco.com
Five-Year Gold Prices
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10-Year Prime Rate
Source: MoneyCafe.com
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Inflation Adjusted Farmland Values 1964-2010
Source: Chicago Federal Reserve
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Repayment Capacity 1970-2011
Source: ERS, USDA
d
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Farm Sector Debt Ratios 1970-2011
Source: ERS, USDA
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Farm Sector Equity 1970-2011
Source: ERS, USDA
d
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Farm Sector Business Debt 1970-2011
Source: ERS, USDA
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Light Sweet Crude Oil
Source: NYMEX
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China’s Total Primary Energy Consumption, 1970-2020
Source: Int’l Energy Outlook
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China’s Demand for Oil Imports
Source: Int’l Energy Outlook
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China Flex Its Military Muscles
Source: Defencetalk.com
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Vital Maritime Chokepoints
Source: EIA
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Projected World Population 2050
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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World Population Density
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World Population Growth Rate
Source: CIA Factbook
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“Youth Bulge” Population Impact
Source: Stanford Center for Longevity
2005 2030 2050
Pakistan
Iran158.1
Afghanistan30025020015010050250
240.3
292.2
69.4
25.1
91.2
53.379.4
100.2
Millions
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Median Age in Mideast Hot Spots
Source: Stanford Center for Longevity
2005 2030 2050
Pakistan
Iran
20
Afghanistan
28
34
23
16
36
1823
41
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10-Year Corn Prices
Source: NASS
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10-Year Soybean Prices
Source: NASS
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10-Year Wheat Prices
Source: NASS
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10-Year Cattle Prices
Source: NASS
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10-Year Hog Prices
Source: NASS
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10-Year Cotton Prices
Source: NASS