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Economic & Commercial Viability ofHydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles from an
Automotive Manufacturer Perspective
ICAT-2008 Summary Presentation
Greg FrenetteZEV Vehicle Programs Chief Engineer
Research & Advanced Engineering, Ford Motor Company
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Topics• Background
– Reasons to Work Towards Hydrogen– Ford Motor Company Experience– Current Status of Technology
• Significant Industry Challenges – Infrastructure– Remaining Technical Issues– Cost
• The Way Forward– Time to implementation– Government contribution
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Ford’s Environmental Vision
“In today’s world, solving environmental problems is an investment, not an expense.”
William Clay Ford, Jr.Executive Chairman, Ford Motor Company
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Reasons to Work Toward Hydrogen
• Climate Change– Eliminate CO2 emissions if H2 is derived from renewable
resources
• Air Quality– Reduce or eliminate regulated tailpipe emissions
(HC, CO, NOx)
• Sustainability– Potential sources of H2 virtually unlimited (e.g. solar, wind,
geothermal, hydroelectric)
• Security– Reduce dependence on imported oil
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Ford Experience
• 1999 Ford addressed the question:– Can a hydrogen fuel cell be used as a primary
propulsion source?• Challenges at the time included:
– Could a fuel cell demonstrate reliability, durability?– Could an onboard system provide an adequate fuel
mixture in real time?– Could the fuel be stored on board in a practical manner?
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Ford Experience
• The response was P2000– Developed in 1999– Five passenger sedan– Achievements:
• 21 hour/1,390 mile continuous issue free operation
• Demonstrated on road usage was technically feasible
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Next Step• Ford Focus Fuel Cell Vehicle
(FCV)– Produced in 2003– Deployed as a limited production fleet in
2005– Advancements over P2000:
• Hybridized fuel cell vehicle• Improved stack life• Vehicle starts at temperatures as low as 5°
C
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Critical Lessons Learned• Need for hybridization (first of its kind)
– Slow stack response to load changes cause noticeably “sluggish” vehicle performance
– Parallel hybridization with a high voltage battery successfully mitigates the response to load changes
– Improves fuel economy and vehicle range– Now a proven industry standard approach in FCV design
• Low Temperature Operation– Demonstrated Ability to start after cold soaks to 5°C with no
negative impact on stack life
• Stack life– Designed to meet 3 years or 36,000 miles– Actual Stacks have as much as 4 years and over 50,000 miles
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Critical Lessons Learned
• Service– Established intercontinental service organization including:
• Documentation• Data tracking and analysis• Trained Service technicians
– Vehicle demonstrated high reliability• Fleet operates with a greater than 92% up time
• Infrastructure– Collaboration with energy provider BP
• Demonstrated feasibility of fueling– Requires no more than “ordinary efforts”– Implemented 350 bar (5000 psi storage)
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Continuing Development
• Ford Explorer– Designed around hydrogen
• Delivered full passenger/Cargo area
• Incorporated Customer comforts– Dual zone climate control– Folding rear seats– Luxury options such as
» Moon roof» Navigation System
• Improved vehicle range
• First true full featured consumer FCV
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Stretching Propulsion System Architecture Boundaries
• HySeries Edge; Introduced in 2007
• Drivable “plug-in” series hybrid FCV– Included Li-ion battery with
20 mile battery only range– Fuel cell range extender
APU delivering true zero-emissions capability
– Delivered >200 mile range continuous drive capability
– Power fade and other vehicle challenges
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Challenging the Limits of Stack Performance
• The Hydrogen 999; Introduced in 2007
• Fuel Cell only propulsion system– Achieved 207 mph
making it the fasted fuel cell vehicle
– Demonstrated non-hybrid fuel cell power delivery
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Significant Industry Challenges
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Hydrogen Fuel: Sources• Fossil Fuel
– Steam Reformation of Methane– Coal Gasification– Petroleum Cracking
• Nuclear– Steam Reformation– Electrolysis– Thermochemical Water Splitting
• Renewable– Electrolysis using renewable energy– Hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal– Biomass– Thermochemical Water Splitting
CO2 Sequestration
for zero Greenhouse
Gases
Where we are today
Where we need to be
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Infrastructure Challenges• Hydrogen Availability
– Ford estimates that 33% of the fuel stations would need to supply hydrogen prior to commercial viability
• In North America this means 57,000 stations versus today’s 50
• Hydrogen Delivery– Presently there is no agreement on a
standard delivery method• Delivered hydrogen
– Codes and methods for transport and fuel transfer must be developed
• Pipelines– Must address opposition from
populated areas– Must develop reliable hydrogen
compressors (all weather conditions) in order to deliver hydrogen at proper pressures.
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Hydrogen Infrastructure Challenge
Industry needs to address fueling to:
• develop hardware standards
• develop communication standards
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Technical Issues
• Vehicle FCV platform development– Design around hydrogen offers most efficient
vehicle architecture but drive new, purpose-built platforms
– Investment decisions will ultimately be driven by expected returns
• $1 billion investment required to develop new, dedicated platform(s)
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Commercial Viability
• Commercial fleet use may offer an opportunity for early introduction– Advantages
• Allows for collection of operational data to facilitate optimal vehicle design
• Can allow centralized fueling thereby reducing the early infrastructure requirements
– Disadvantages• Fleet managers may experience high initial fuel cost
due to low production capability
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Cost
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Vehicle Cost
• Electric Drive Motors– High efficiency motors require strong magnets
that use rare earth elements• These elements are expensive to mine• Current forecast indicate that demand may exceed
supply– Between 1997 – 2001 demand grew by 21%
• All factors point to a negative impact on system cost
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Vehicle Cost
• Fuel Cell Stack– Performance gap (effect on consumer value)
• Stack life must be 2X – 3X present life to match gasoline vehicle expectations.
• Stacks must improve beyond their present -15° C low temperature point to -40° C
– This requires breakthrough development of the proton exchange membrane
• Meeting these gap requirements results in “no-compromise” vehicle offerings in the showroom
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Vehicle Cost• Fuel Cell Stack
– Material Cost• Presently Platinum accounts for approximately
40% of the stack cost– State of the art stacks require approximately 0.7 g/kW– Stacks would be affordable at present material cost with
0.2 g/kW [breakthrough required]– Material forecast indicate insufficient supply of Platinum
for high volume vehicle production
• Plalladium is the most promising substitute catalyst– Material forecast indicate similar supply issues
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Supplier Base and Cost
• Presently there is no large scale production capability for critical components– Many components will require large scale
production to drive lower cost – Suppliers need an adequate business
justification prior to investment in high volume manufacturing
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The Way Forward
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Time to Transition to Hydrogen
• Competing Technologies may increase time to transition– While Hydrogen offers the best long term solution
other technologies may allow an extended transition• Electric Vehicles
– Advances in battery technology have made these vehicles more attractive
• Alternative fuels – Bio-fuels and clean diesels have shown promise
• Plug-in Hybrids – Can provide full function vehicles – When combined with alternative fuels further improvements are
achieved.
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Time to Transition to Hydrogen• Challenges and alternative
technologies make it unlikely that FCVs will occupy a significant percentage of total industry volume within the next 20 years– Near term development will continue– Fleet applications remain promising– Reference time required for Toyota Prius to
reach 1M units/year volume and no major infrastructure required.
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Government Action
• U.S. Department of Energy analysis estimated industry cash flow under three scenarios and two separate policy cases– Policy Case 1 – no governmental policy
[100% private capitol]– Policy Case 2 – Government and industry
incremental cost share [50/50]
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US DOE Analysis
– Scenario 1 • Thousands of vehicles in 2012 – tens of thousands
by 2018 and 2.0 million by 2025
– Scenario 2• Thousands of vehicles in 2012 – tens of thousands
by 2015 – hundreds of thousands by 2018 and 5.0 million by 2025
– Scenario 3• Thousands of vehicles in 2012 – millions by 2021
and 10.0 million by 2025
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Results of Analysis
• Total investment projected - $28 Billion (USD)– 50/50 Cost share reduces industry contribution to
approx. $15 Billion• Scenarios 1 and 2 failed to show positive
industry cash flow through 2025 (always negative cash flow)
• Scenario 3 showed negative cash flow through 2023
• Extremely long break-even, high cost of financing, and risk of stranded investment are Industry concerns
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Investment and Payback
Simulated Auto Industry Cash Flow From Sale of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles, No Policy Case
-$5
-$4
-$3
-$2
-$1
$0
$1
$2
$3
2010 2015 2020 2025
Bill
ions
of D
olla
rs
Scenario3
Scenario2
Scenario1
Simulated Auto Industry Cash Flow From Sale of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles, Policy Case 1
-$3
-$2
-$1
$0
$1
$2
$3
2010 2015 2020 2025
Bil
lio
ns
of
Do
llar
s
Scenario3
Scenario2
Scenario1
Case 1 – no governmental policy Case 2 – 50/50 Cost share
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Government Influence• Government fleet purchases
– Presently challenging due to complicated purchasing requirements
• For example the US Government has 30,000 separate fleet accounts
– Purchase volume cannot support multiple high-volume suppliers
– Could serve as initial step in promoting FCV technology
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Government Influence
• Subsidies and Incentives– Required to supplement market forces
• The market will likely not drive this technology in the near or mid-term
– Government can rationalize additional value of national energy independence
• Calculate value to retail customers?
– Government can encourage the simultaneous introduction of vehicles and the supporting infrastructure
• Doing so will reduce investment risk, speed implementation, and increase consumer confidence
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Summary• Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been demonstrated to be versatile
good performance vehicles
• These vehicles still do not currently meet the life and performance expectations of today’s gasoline vehicles
• Based of the performance, material cost challenges and the availability of near term alternatives it is difficult to envision high volume, economically viable fuel cell vehicle market penetration before 2030
• Ford Motor Company experience to date clearly shows that the technology is feasible in automotive applications.
• Ford’s limited production fleets have been highly successful and well received.
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Conclusions• Ford Motor Company believes that long-term
perspective and commitment to fuel cell technology is necessary
• Government support is required to accelerate the development and introduction of this technology– The effort must begin with a long-term cross industry
plan– This effort may require a multinational approach