Simulations, Observations & Palæoclimatic data: climate variability over the last 500 years
ECHAM4/HOPE-G = ECHO-G
runs, forcings, results so far
Hans von StorchInstitute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Centre, Geesthacht, Germany
SO&P startup meeting, Norwich, 23+24 January 2003
List of simulations
ECHO-G f77Control run, 1990 conditions, 1000 year long
Forced run, 1500-1990, 12-h output “Christof Columbus”
Forced run: 1650-1710, 12-h outputForced run: 1650-1710, 6-h output
ECHO-G f90
Remo
Remo
Control run, 1990 conditions, 400 years longControl run, 1850 conditions, 1000 years long
Forced run, 1000-2000, 12-h output ongoing)“Erik the Red”
Control run, 1610 conditions, 50 years longForced run, 1650-1710, 6-h output
Planed simulations ECHO-G f90
A second Forced simulation 1000-2000Depending on differences between both forced simulations f77 f90
Forced simulation 1750-2000, no volcanoes
Forced simulation 1750-2000, no solar variability
Forced simulation 1750-2000, no greenhouse gas variability
Planed simulations REMO
Medieval Optimum, Europe
Model used is ECHO-G,a community model provided by Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,maintained by Model & Data at MPI for Meteorology in Hamburg
The runs are made and evaluated in a consortium:a) Institute for Coastal Research, GKSSb) Meteorological Department, Free University Berlinc) Model & Data, MPI for Meteorology, Hamburgd) Department for Meteorology and Climatology, U Complutense, Madridand Universities in Lecce (Italy), Nanjing (China).
Comparison with historical and geological data are made together witha) „KIHZ partners“ (Alfred Wegener I, Bremerhaven;
Geoforschungszentrum, Potsdam; FZ Jülich, and others)b) U Bern, Switzerland
Variations in the effective solar constant including variations in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols (Crowley, 2000)
Estimated changes in CO2 (Etheridge et al., 1996)
Estimated changes in methane CH4
More actual data via internet
Temperature Responses
Tett, pers. comm.
(a) NAOI in the forced climate simulation, simulated by the ECHO-G model, and reconstructed from the simulated air-temperature field and the precipitation field in the North Atlantic sector over land grid points. (b) As (a) with a 50-year gaussian filter.
(c) NAOI as in (b) but in the control simulation.
Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002
control
forced
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Late Maunder Minimum
Cold winters and springs, 1675-1710
The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM) is the coldest phase of the so-called ‘Little Ice Age’ with marked climatic variability over wide parts of Europe.
Temperature conditions in Switzerland according to Pfister‘s classification.From Luterbacher, 2001
1675-1710vs. 1550-1800
Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.
Baltic Sea ice winter index after Koslowski (1998)grey: Index, red: 5 year mean, blue:20 year mean
Lake Sediments From Lake Holzmaar
magnetic susceptibility =clastic input?
13C
+ Aulacoseira subarctica
Reduced growing season?
Dryer winters?
1675-1710vs. 1550-1800
Reconstruction from historical evidence, from Luterbacher et al.
Late Maunder Minimum
Model-based reconstuction
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I f KGlobal 1675-1710 temperature anomaly
Model as a constructive tool
Corals off Madagaskar
The empirically reconstructed 338 year record of variations in sea-surface temperatures as inferred from the 1982-95 annual mean 18O -SST calibration equations using SST observations from different sources.
(From Zinke)
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Galapagos (E-Pacific, 1oS, 90oW, Dunbar et al., 1994):
367 years of coral 18O records from 1587-1953, with annual resolution. The intervals 1660-80, 1710-1800 and 1870-95 were found warmer than “normal”, whereas the intervals 1600-1660, 1680-1700 (LMM) and 1800-25 cooler than on average. 18O increases of about 0.1-0.15‰ heavier during LMM than between 1660-70 and 1705-50 is indicative for a cooling of 0.5-0.75K.
New Caledonia (SW-Pacific, 22oS, 166oE, Quinn et al., 1998):
335 years of coral 18O records from 1657-1952, with seasonal resolution. The records describe a brief interval of modest cooling in the late 17th century, with an annual mean SST about 0.2-0.3K cooler between 1680-1740 than between 1660-80 and 1740-50
Great Barrier Reef, Abraham Reef (SW-Pacific, 22oS, 153oE, Druffel and Griffin, 1993):
323 years of coral 18O records from 1635-1957, with bi-annual resolution. More positive 18O values (ca. 0.1‰) during the LMM, are consistent with lower SST’s of about 0.5K
Zink
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Marine Sediments Off Peru
Indicator for bio-productivity and intensity of upwelling in the ocean off Peru. The indicator is derived from characteristics in the marine sediment. Higher values are associated with stronger upwelling and lower values with reduced upwelling.
deM
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Ice Cores From Greenland and Antarctica
Stacked isotope record from five North-Greenland ice cores (Schwager, 2000)
Stacked isotope record from three ice cores from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica (Graf et al., in press )
Reconstruction of solar
variability, deduced from
10Be measurements
(Crowley, 2000)
Antarctica
North Greenland
LMM1 1671-1684 NAO- and Cooling LMM2 1685-1708
NAO+ and Warming
Irene Fischer-Bruns, pers. comm.
Simulated differences of ice coverage, in percent, during the LMM event 1675-1710 and the long term mean 1550-1800.
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Model as a constructive tool
Resolution:• T30• 6 hourly
01.01.384
Forcing data from ECHO-GForcing data from ECHO-G(special run Late Maunder Minimum)(special run Late Maunder Minimum)
Beate Müller, pers. comm.
Resolution:spatial 0.5° x 0.5°temporal 6 h
Model AreaModel Area
Beate Müller, pers. comm.
3
8
5
4
6
1
9
2
11
10
7N
EW
S
Eisbedeckungsgrad [%]3. März 1692
0 - 1010 - 2020 - 3030 - 4040 - 5050 - 6060 - 7070 - 8080 - 9090 - 100
0 200 400 600Kilometers
Regionalized sea ice dataRegionalized sea ice data
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
650 750 850 950 1050 1150 1250 1350 1450 1550 1650 1750 1850 1950
forest farmland greenland infrastructure water
Main land use types in Germany from 7th centuryMain land use types in Germany from 7th century
area
[%]
Beate Müller, pers. comm.
DifferencesDifferences
reconstructed data - REMO reconstructed data - ECHO
January
Beate Müller, pers. comm.
DifferencesDifferences
reconstructed data - REMO reconstructed data - ECHO
July
Beate Müller, pers. comm.
Differences of 30-year monthly meansDifferences of 30-year monthly meansLMM(6h)** - ”Normal Period“ (12h)*
Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
LMM-NP -0.6 -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.1
* 1625-1655** 1675-1705Beate Müller, pers.
comm.
Iberian peninsulaIberian peninsula
Dezember Januar Februar Dezember
268
270
272
274
276
278
280
282
284
286
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Januar
268
270
272
274
276
278
280
282
284
286
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Februar
268
270
272
274
276
278
280
282
284
286
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Juni Juli August
Juni
282
284
286
288
290
292
294
296
298
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Juli
282
284
286
288
290
292
294
296
298
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
August
282
284
286
288
290
292
294
296
298
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
WinterWinter
SummerSummer
ECHO-GREMO
Luterbacher
Beate Müller, pers. comm.
DJF-Mean Temperatures of DJF-Mean Temperatures of 1776-17051776-1705
266
268
270
272
274
276
278
280
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
van den Dool REMO-C02 ECHO-C02 Luterbacher
De Bilt Central England
266
268
270
272
274
276
278
280
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29Manley REMO-C02 ECHO-C02 Luterbacher
ECHO-GREMO
Luterbacher
Luterbacher/Manley
Beate Müller, pers. comm.