Download - Earthquakes forecasting hu
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Operational Earthquakes Forecasting:
The Case of Industrial Plants
Sigalit ShaharHazmat 2016
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The threat• Structural damage to a facility containing hazardous
substances may cause:
Release of toxic vapors and fumes Extensive fire Massive explosion Adverse environmental impact Substantial financial loss Loss of credibility
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In earthquakes, this picture is even more critical due to the combination of:
The stochastic behavior of seismic phenomena The chemical hazards Existing processes in the industry were rarely designed according to a seismic standard. Assistance from community rescue-forces is questionable
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Direct impact on industryFatalities,
injuries, and trapped people
Damage to buildings earthquake
industry
Loss of containment of
hazardous substances
Major accident of hazardous
substance(s)
On-goingincident
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What if we can get a forecast for the next earthquakes?
All our protection layers must be reviewed:
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Community Emergency Response
Preparations at state-level:• Deployment of (out-numbered) rescue forces:
hospitals, schools, city center, shopping-malls OR industrial parks
• Assessment of the rescue-services, or extent of rescue services that will be postponed
• Dynamic decision making on priorities
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Plant Emergency Response• Emergency response teams (ERTs) to be in
alert phase: adoption of military procedures that are highly irregular in industry-lives
• Administrative procedures 1: for example minimizing the number of employees on site
• Administrative procedures 2: minimizing the quantities of hazardous substances
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MittigationEmergency preparedness:• Starting up emergency systems: scrubbers, ventilation,
electricity and more• Verifying that all water reservoirs are filled and in operation• Verifying that all first-aid, communication and rescue
equipment are in operation• Sheltering• Close all stop-valves such as drain valves, storm-water valves
and more• Deployment of fire fighting equipment• Deployment of mobile gas monitors• Minimizing the current stock of hazardous substances• If appropriate, storage of food and drinking water
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PreventionCommencing shutdown procedures according to a pre-determined plan based on risk analysis
F3 M M H H
F2 L M M H
F1 L L M M
F0 L L L M
S0 S1 S2 S3F = Frequency CodeS = Severity CodeHAZARD CATEGORY CODES:[L] Low risk - Nice to have[M] Moderate risk - Action required[H] Critical risk - Must take action
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ControlPre-planning:• Resistance to earthquakes built-in to the design• Physical protection and retrofitting against earthquakes• Design of automatic and passive safeguards• Design of automatic shutoff systems: shutoff valves,
emergency shutdown procedures and more• Design of secondary containment systems to handle loss
of containment scenarios
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Case Study: Ammonia plant•Threat Zone:
1,500 meters radius
•Potentially exposed
population: 30,000
•Worst case Scenario: 145
fatal casualties (average)
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Case Study: Ammonia plant•Ammonia is a toxic gas. Uncontrolled release of
ammonia could be fatal .loss-of-containment Scenario (3 examples only) Casualties Damage Cost (M US$)
Rupture of Ammonia Receiver 19 24.6
Release of Entire Content of Ammonia Receiver within 10 Minutes
145 195
Leak from a 10 mm Diameter Hole in Ammonia Receiver 16 21.5
…