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Dr. Stephen W. HarmonProfessor and Chair, Learning Technologies
Past- President, The Association for Educational Communications and Technology
Forecasting the Future of Quality Higher Education
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The STEEP Forecasting Framework
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Exponential Growth of the Digital Infrastructure
Computing (processing)
Communication
(bandwidth)
Storage Content
Moore’s Law Fiber Law Disk Law Community Law(Metcalf’s Law)
Doubles every18 months
Doubles every9 months
Doubles every12 months
2n(where n=
# of People)
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Processing
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2014
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Photonic Computing
2.4 micr
ons
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Bandwidth
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Information
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Megabyte
Gigabyte
Terabyte
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Terabyte
Petabyte
Exabyte
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Exabyte
Zettabyte
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2011 - 1.8 ZETTABYTES
Dawn of Time to 2003 – 5 Exabytes
Now 5 Exabytes Every Two Days
2015 - 1 ZETTABYTE Every Two Days
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Neuroscience
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khanacademy.org
Shibata, K., Watanabe, T., Sasaki, Y., & Karats, M. (2011). Perceptual Learning Incepted by Decoded fMRI Neurofeedback Without Stimulus Presentation. Science. Vol. 334, pp. 1413-1415
Ramirez, S., Liu, X., Lin, P.A., Suh, J., Pignatelli, M., Redondo, R., Ryan, T.J., Tonegawa, S. (2013). Creating a False Memory in the Hippocampus. Science. Vol. 341, pp. 387-391.
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Method and system for generating sensory data onto the human neural cortex
AbstractA non-invasive system and process for projecting sensory data onto the human neural cortex is provided. …
United States Patent #6,729,337
Sony Corporation
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Grau C, Ginhoux R, Riera A, Nguyen TL, Chauvat H, et al. (2014)
Conscious Brain-to-Brain Communication in Humans Using Non-Invasive Technologies.
PLoS ONE 9(8): e105225.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0105225
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Now only
$259!!!
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Augmented Intelligence
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“We are currently preparing students for jobs that don’t yet exist, using technologies that haven’t yet
been invented, in order to solve problems we don’t even know are
problems yet. “
- Ray Kurzweil
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How do we respond to this era of incredible change?
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William Huskisson11 March 1770 – 15 September 1830
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The Iron Bridge
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Major Paradigm Shifts in Society*
Agrarian Industrial Information Knowledge
Transportation Horse Train Plane & Car Diverse-Electrons v. Atoms
Family Extended Nuclear Single Parent Global Village
Business Family Bureaucracy Team Distributed Network
Education One Room School House
Current System Current
System
Current System
*Adapted from Reigeluth, 1994
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Click to edit the outline text format
Second Outline Level Third Outline
LevelFourth Outline Level Fifth Outline Level
Sixth Outline Level
Seventh Outline Level
Eighth Outline Level
Ninth Outline LevelClick to edit Master text styles Second level
Third level Fourth level
» Fifth level
Routine Expertise
Adaptive Expertise
Hatano & Osuro, 2003
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Click to edit the outline text format
Second Outline Level
Third Outline LevelFourth
Outline Level Fifth
Outline Level
Sixth Outline Level
Seventh Outline Level
Eighth Outline Level
Ninth Outline LevelClick to edit Master text styles Second level
Third level Fourth level
» Fifth level
Adaptive vs. Routine Expertise
http://galen-frysinger.com/graphics/chef.jpg
http://www.clipartguide.com/_small/0041-0503-1618-2128.jpg
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Schwartz, D. L., Bransford, J. D., & Sears, D. (2005). Efficiency and innovation in transfer. In J. Mestre (Ed.), Transfer of Learning (pp. 1-51). Greenwich, CT: Information Age Publishing.
Efficiency
Innovation
NovicesFrustratedNovices
RoutineExperts
AdaptiveExperts
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Present
Time
Future
Possible
Plausible
Probable
Preferable
Cone of Plausibility
Wildcard
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How Can an Institution Prepare for the Future?
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A Model for Future-proofing an Institution
Harmon, S.W. & Dennison, T.W. (in press). Futureproofing: Learning, Technology, and the Path to the Unknown. In N. Rushby & D. Surry. Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology, Oxford, U.K. John Wiley & Sons.
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Dimensions of Strategic Preparation
Harmon, S.W. & Dennison, T.W. (in press). Futureproofing: Learning, Technology, and the Path to the Unknown. In N. Rushby & D. Surry. Wiley Handbook of Learning Technology, Oxford, U.K. John Wiley & Sons.
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Making a Difference
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Making A Difference
0.2
0.6
1 1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3 3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
5 5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
7 7.4
7.8
8.2
8.6
9 9.4
9.8
02
46
810
12 GRADUATION AND pELL rATES OF
uRBAN rESEARCH universities
Pell Rate
Gra
du
ati
on
Rate
Georgia State
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“Education is our passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs to the
people who prepare for it today.” ― Malcolm X.