Discussions over Auto Fuel Policy & opportunities to tighten it

Sumit SharmaTERI, New Delhi

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Background

India since 1950 : Population, index of industrial production and number of vehicles have grown 3.3, 50, and 460 times, respectively

53 cities million plus cities. expected to grow to 85 by 2025

31% urbanisation , expected to grow to 38% by 2025.

Unprecedented growth of personal vehicles in India.

Aspirations to own personal vehicles reinforced by limited public transport

Growth of vehicles far more in cities, leading to congestion and emissions and effects over health .

•Auto Fuel Policy : 2002•BS-I to BS-IV

•Auto Fuel Vision 2025

Why at all we worry about air pollution ?

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Exceedence

SO2 NOx RSPM

2010

Air quality in India

Source: CPCB, NAMP data

More than 80% cities violate the standards of RSPM

2011

Satellite view (AOD)

Urban air quality (Delhi)- PM10

Banning old vehicles Cleaner fuels and vehicles

Shift industries

NOx & vehiclesNOx & vehicles

OK, air pollution is high !

So what ?

Impacts

• Sufficient evidence to document the causal relationship with the onset of childhood asthma, non-asthma respiratory diseases, impaired lung function, cardiovascular mortality and morbidity.

• GBD estimates, about 6 lakh mortalities attributed annually to ambient air pollution in the country.

• WHO, 2012 Diesel exhausts are carcinogens

• Effects on vegetation, visibility, ecology etc

• It warms too ..

• Impacts image …

OK it impacts, but why transport sector ?

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Growth in Number of Motor Vehicles

Others: tractors, trailors, three wheelers (passenger vehicles), etc

• Over 1/3rd of the total vehicles in 53 million +cities • Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population

MoRTH, ROAD TRANSPORT YEAR BOOK (2009-10 & 2010-11), http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/mainlinkFile/File838.pdf

Vehicular growth

• About 28000 two wheelers, and 4200 cars added to India’s vehicular fleet daily (2011)

• As per Census 2011, 21% households have two wheelers whereas 4.7 % have cars/jeeps/vans

• More growth expectedData WDI, 2011

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Source apportionment study (PM)

• Share of transport sector increases if we move from PM10 to PM2.5 (finer fractions)

• In non-industrial cities, it is the largest source

Source: CPCB, 2010

Source apportionment study- NOx

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Transport – Its not just PM !!

• Highest contributor to NOx emissions in India • Gaseous pollutants (NOx, SO2, VOCs) lead to secondary

PM formation and acids• NOx and VOCs can lead to formation of ground level

Ozone (impacts health + agriculture) • BC (a constituent of PM) has a significant warming

potential.

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•Auto Fuel Policy has been made !!

•Reductions have been made in vehicular emissions !!

Auto Fuel Policy 2002REGIONAL DIFFERENTIATION

• One set of standards for air quality

• Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 13 cities and rest of the country

• Many other cities in the country are much more polluted than the ones where better quality fuel is presently provided.

• Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities, may fill the inferior quality fuel and may end up choking their engines

• No road map after 2010

Effects of introduction of BS norms (2010) on emissions

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500

1000

1500

2000

2500

No control BS-I BS-II

Emis

sion

(kt/

year

)

PM10 NMVOC NOX

-36%

-36%

-19%

PM reductions have been more than NOx TERI’s estimation

Impact of AFP on air quality (RSPM)

*13 cities : Selected in AFP, 2002 for advanced implementation of BS norms ** Other cities which show higher increase in RSPM in the last 8 years.

Data source : CPCB, NAMP

Learnings from Auto Fuel Policy, 2002

• Heavy duty trucks (highest contributors to PM) could not achieve BS-IV norms due to unavailability of fuel across the country

• Very high growth of vehicles negated the benefits provided by AFP 2002. Further advancement required

• Focus more on PM control and less reductions achieved in NOx , and hence, further advancements required

• Old driving cycles used for testing may not result in on-road reductions as depicted during emissions tests.

•It’s the old vehicles which contribute

•Why invest in newer fuels and vehicles ?

• Our current vehicular fleet is going to grow from 100 million to about 350 million

• Share of older vehicles is going to diminish

• However, I&M is a must not only for old but also for new vehicles

Benefits of cleaner fuel

• Euro IV/V equivalent fuel quality (diesel and petrol) have much reduced sulphur content which will help to improve air quality.

• It will enable the use of advanced emissions control technologies on light duty and heavy duty diesel vehicles.

• Reach of CNG would still be limited.

• Expanding the reach of EURO IV/V equivalent fuel to the entire country would reap considerable air quality benefits.

Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms

Scenario DescriptionBAU Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any

further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 citiesALT-I Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015ALT-II Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020ALT-III Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020ALT-IV Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020

This is going to cost really high ?

• Hart Energy and MathPro found the refinery investments needed to transition to ULSFs in India to be around $4.2 billion (~25 k crores)

• An incremental increase of few % of the present fuel price per litre will do

• In California it costed about 2.5 cents per gallon. • Few extra months of on-going diesel price

increase will do.

•OK lets do some hotspot? cities !

• Limited benefit: More than 600 Class I-VI cities. Vehicle sales dispersed away from large urban centers.

• Trucks—which are the largest emitters of NOx and PM—still on BS-III ?

• Treating citizens differently

•Why not other sectors ?

Its not the question of either/or

•Transport (dominant in cities)

•Cook-stoves•Industries

•Why urgency ?

•Lets do it by 2025 !

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May cost more in future

Health benefits would reduce

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Benefits could be larger ..

• Health impacts of only PM • NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or

synergistically aggravate the impacts

• Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants

• Climate benefits are additional• Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon

concentrations too

•Why India should do it ?

Europe, the United States, and Japan implemented low-sulfur fuels years ago

Developing countries like China, South Africa, Mexico, and Brazil have plans to reduce fuel sulfur levels in the near future

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Conclusions

• Air quality in Indian cities is severely deteriorated

• Transport sector is one of the important source contributing to finer fractions of PM, and NOx

• Effects on health, agriculture, acid rain, and global warming.

• After AFP,2002, no road map for future.

• BS-IV cities show lesser increase or decrease in PM concentrations and hence BS-IV quality fuels (50 ppm sulphur) should be provided all cross the country by 2015.

‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India

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Conclusions • BS-norms needs to be advanced to BS-V and BS-VI

levels (by 2019) to improve air quality and reduce health impacts

• Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel (10 ppm) is critical to achieve BS-VI levels through installation of DPFs

• Commissioning of an effective I&M system across country

Inuse vehicle testing program Strengthed I&M program

• Relook at driving cycles to prescribe emission norms

• Development of a fleet modernization programme • Measures for reducing energy demand from the

sector

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Thanks