Proceedings of Coilfermzce. 53

I>~scussro~ ON h l ~ . HAYES’ PAPER. Pwj. Edgar Thomas :

I would like to ask a question on the last point. Is there a forestry tradition among crofters in Scotland, if not, do you think they would take kindly or unkindly to a forestry policy ?

G. G. Hayes: There is none. There is no forestry tradition as far as I can makc out amongst tliese

crofters. It would have to be brought in from outside, but what would happen would be that the work in the, forest would, I believe, provide casual employment for the crofter, an employment which he would quite readily accept. He would be quite happy to go to work in the Forestry Commission’s plantations provided that they did not interfere with his work on the croft.

.-I. li,’. Asliby: May I ask a question ? In the Assessment of Income table, is the term ‘ I income ”

used there equivalent t o revenue, and if the figures on the last line represent revenue, how close do they come to what we would define as expendable income ?

G . G. Hayes: The figures given in that table are the estimated cash income of the crofts. No

accoiint has been taken of any expenditure whatsoever. Normally it would be extremely small. There is very little done in the way of purchases of livestock, feedingstuffs, manures and seeds. There is no labour bill, and rent is extremely small except in the case of crofts in the more southerly part of the arca. This is purely an estimate of the cash income.

I ) . r l l c l a r e l l : In that tablc, how did Mr. Haycs treat the larger farms ? There are somc large farms

in the area and obviously, if their incomcs were included, the table would give an un- representative picturc.

G. G. Hayes: I t was. I regret to say, absolutely impossible to cut out the effect of any farm in

any one of these regions. That is thc biggest flaw in the whole of the calculations and that is possibly why some of thcse have got too high an income per croft. We could not distinguish them, I am afraid.

C . H . Ulagbtcrir . One more qucstion arising out of that table. I assurnc that the figures of income

make no allowance for the value of prodiice consumed by the farm household. ’ I ask because of the remarkably small income from sheep. Do I assume that there is also quite a large value attributable to produce consumed in the household ? If so, is the figure of L300 per holding really appropriate ?

G. G. Hayes: -1s far as livestock are concerned, account has been taken in the estimate of any

consumed in the croft house. One cannot judge the quality of the livestock by normal farm standards. I have had to use price figures substantially below what a farmer would normally expect t o receive. The quality of the stock is generally of an extremely inferior character and its price in consequence would be very low. Tha t possibly explains the low figures. As far as any crops, potatoes or oats consumed in the farmhouse are concerned, then I have in fact taken no account of them because I had no information on the level of consumption of those two crops by the crofter and I felt it was best left alone.

Dr. G. P . U’ibbevly I am grateful to Mr. Hayes for improving my own knowledge of the crofting problem

in Scotland. He will take i t as a compliment, I know, if I ask him to permit me t o raise the general question of the value of such comprehensive surveys of rural areas. Though I was guilty some years ago of advocating this line of approach, I now feel that such surveys can easily carry within them the seeds of their own failure. They usually take a number of years to complete, the facts are over-documented and often insufficiently integrated in the later stages and the results, being cumbersome and out of date, tend to be pigeon-holed.

54 Agricultural Economics Society.

It is quite fashionable these days to talk about the under-developed areas of the world. Maybe we should think more about the under-developed areas of this country. The paper tonight has given us a picture of one of them. There are many others-not all of them are on poor land or amongst the hills. Do we not need some simple broad techniques which can be used to expose quickly the main problems of such areas and show the parts which have the greatest potential from both a farming and a living stand- point. This line of thought is put much more clearly than I am doing tonight in the articles which Mr. Ashby and Mr. Britten have written for the Journal of the Scottish Department of Agriculture on Marginal Land. We do have to face this question of discrimination as to where we put our money and attention in a general programme of agricultural expansion.

A simple method is to use agricultural information already available and relate this to other existing information on living potentialities in an area, for example, education policy, population trends (in age and sex as well as total), accessibility to services of all sorts. We are finding in a study of the livestock rearing areas of Northumberland that the authorities responsible for physical services can pick out the areas where they can reasonably extend and improve services and the areas where they cannot justify the expense of public money on extension of supplies. If these broad pieces of information on both agricultural and living potentialities are put together, certain areas emerge as being the most favourable for development in the long term.

You may feel that many of the factors I have mentioned do not come under agri- cultural policy. Yet if, as this country gets poorer, we are forced to be more careful in funds for rural areas, those dealing with agricultural policy will need to see that improve- ments in the agricultural sphere tie up with improvements being made in other aspects of specific rural areas. Surely our only hope of getting lasting rural improvements with relatively little money is by discrimination between areas as well as between projects. When we start to discriminate there must be clear pictures of different rural areas and these should be quickly available. Here is the value of rough and broad co-ordinating surveys.

I would, therefore, like to hear comments about the real value of detailed rural surveys and to know from the meeting whether members feel that this idea of quick surveys with rough yardsticks in order to show areas of priority is feasible from a survey point of view and practical from a policy standpoint.

Prof. E . F. Nash: On the last point-it seems to me very important in considering pyoblems of the

area to have a complete picture. I was wondering if Mr. Hayes has any idea how much income there is from other sources than agriculture.

D . Witney: I should like to congratulate Mr. Hayes on his excellent paper-and on the really

masterly way in which he introduced it-and to thank him for putting before the members of the Society the facts indicating the nature of the problem. He has thrown light on many things : the significance of the crofting areas in the country, what is meant by a croft, i t s area, how crofts vary, the question of amalgamation of crofts and their sub- division, and so on.

I don’t think I am over-stating it when I say that per head of population more ink has been spilt on this subject than on any other problem in Scotland. Many Commissions have sat and have put forward their views, and now we have Mr. Hayes’ own suggestions. which are : much better transport facilities, consolidation of holdings, and the development of cattle and sheep along with forestry, with the emphasis on forestry. The recommendation of the Highland Panel on the same subject mentions the importance of communications and water supplies, and the provision of electric power ; the best use of soil, use of the less fertile land, and the establishment of small industries to process the natural products of farms.

Mr. Hayes makes one fundamental change in tackling the problem in that he suggests that the emphasis should be placed on forestry. Stating the problem a t the outset of his paper he said that there were two alternatives, one that the Highlands should be sealed off from Inverness to Fort William and abandoned, the other that the Highlands should be rehabilitated.

I should like to put one question. Mr. Hayes mentioned that the owners of these crofts are sometimes to be found in the Glasgow City Police, sometimes in the London police. sometimes in America. I rather think, then, that many of the crofts must be empty. Realising the difficulty that many would-be farmers have today to commence farming. could the crofting areas make any contribution, however small, towards solving this

Proceedings of Conference. 55

problem ? There are many in Edinburgh and other areas who ask if there is a possibility of their taking cr,ofts which have been abandoned. Is this practical. and to what extent could it help our problems of food production and also help would-be farmers?

E. Dawson : Could Mr. Hayes turn the spotlight on to some individual holdings ? I am wondering

whether there are any individual holdings which contradict the general picture. Are there any crofts, for example, where the inbye land has been extended, or where the standard of fertility has been greatly raised ; is a milking machine to be found on any of the crofts ? I am prompted to ask this question because it was recently brought to our notice in Leeds that the Yorkshire Province of the N.A.A.S. had discovered a holding on the Pennines which is a veritable oasis of fertility in the middle of a wilderness. This is merely one example but it fits in with my general experience. Isolated instances of this kind can usually be found and they throw quite a lot of light on the problem under investigation.

D. McLaren : I feel that something should be said in support of Mr. Hayes’ paper in spite of its

weaknesses which are not entirely due to its size. When I first read the paper, I could not make up my mind whether I agreed or disagreed with it because, whilst I am critical of the first part dealing with the survey itself, I am in agreement, with minor reservations, with the conclusions in the second half.

I asked the question about the effect of large farm incomes-and by large farms I mean non-crofting farms-and I feel that the Assessment of Income table is not of as much use as it would have been if these large farm incomes had been excluded. The very wide range of incomes is remarkable and you will find that the main reason for this, as well as the incorporation of the results of the larger farms, is that the area is not homo- geneous. There are wide variations in rainfall, soil and vegetation as is indicated by the regional returns and this heterogeneous nature of the area under survey should make the planners cautious about adopting universal measures for it.

For a time I worked in the southern part of the area in question and there are some very prosperous farms by any standards there, particularly around Campbeltown and in parts of Cowal where dairy farming is well organised. Again, in the Island of Islay the crofts are confined to the fringe of the island round the coast but inland there are dairy farms of 100-acre size and some as large as 300 acres. These farms can absorb labour from the crofts a t busy seasons and wage labour augments the crofting income. The other source of non-crofting income there, not quite so important perhaps, is work undertaken for the distilleries, especially peatcutting. It is apparent, therefore, that the problem here is a bit different from that in the north-west.

Whilst I agree that forestry is a practical substitution for agriculture, I would make an appeal for whole areas to be devoted to forests. Mr. Hayes’ suggestion of cattle, sheep and trees is good if it implies that there will be several areas devoted to each and not a mixture of three economies in each area. This may sound absurd to planners but, in my experience of the Crinnan and Strachur areas of Argyll, when the Forestry Commission move in, the sheep farmers move out, Their argument is that the Forestry Commission bring vermin in their train with subsequent lamb losses so that the precarious balance between profit and loss in hill sheep farming is upset and the hirsels become unprofitable. On the other hand, the Forestry Commission argue that they empIoy more fox hunters than were employed before under the private ownership of the land and that the farmers are prejudiced against them. Possibly both statements are true and that there is more vermin to trap, but true or not, the sheep farmers will not be relegated to the high ground and leave the more fertile straths to the Forestry Commission as is the tendency in Strachur.

Of course Mr. Hayes is bound to treat the problem from the point of view of agri- culture, but it is not solely an agricultural problem but a sociological and psychological problem. The standards of life are different and social values as well as ethical values are different, for instance the people of the West Highlands do not regard money with the same eyes as the Lowland Scots, but have a higher regard for leisure, which leads to a standard being established which would not be tolerated by other people. A number of people, inspired by nationalist ideas, have tried farming in that area but they have not lasted very long and have come back, because they could not accept the different standards. These intangible and incalculable factors must be considered in deciding policy because they can make the difference between success and failure. When the size of the problem is considered in this way, it throws into relief the paper we heard this morning from Professor Wright and I think we have got to come back to broad brushwork.

Fishing and its relation to agriculture was important in holding the population in the area. Some of the incomes quoted show that agriculture could not sustain the population without some other industry and, traditionally, in-shore fishing was the main

56 Agriczrltural Ecoitonzics Society.

ancillary to fishing. Since the first world war the fishing industry has become monopolised and the big trawlers from Fleetwood and Hull have reduced in importance the in-shore fishing of the West Highlands. This, fundamentally, is the reason why, in some parishes, there is a big reduction of the younger age groups and the population cannot now be revived by the indigenous peoples. -4 new labour force is required as well as new industries since at present the population is becoming one of old people who are retired and spending the last of their days on the croft. The Highland area is a nice place to retire to and who can blame them as it is much better to be poor amongst the poor than be a pauper amongst the Sassenachs.

W. H. Senior: It is very difficult to follow the last speaker with any hope oi catching your interest.

While he can bring points from the heart, I can only bring them from the head. I should like to congratulate hfr. Hayes on his excellent description of what I would

call the agricultural aspect of a much larger problem. The crofting problem is not agri- cultural but social. 1.think i t would be very misleading if members of the Society went away from this discussion having heard it and read these figures, with any impression that the figures of income given necessarily refer to a very low standard of life.

The croft is a very useful place from which to venture forth into the world, and if Mr. Hayes has seen anything of the statistics of pensions and remittances that go into the crofting areas he would be very surprised indeed. The standard of life on many crofts is exceedingly good. To retire there with a good pension and with a house that costs very little and perquisities round the door, is a most delightful way of life. Those who cannot go away to the Navy or Police Force don’t often find satisfactory occupation on the croft, but do roadwork and find other occupations which bring in a very useful cash income to supplement the income from the croft.

Of course the crofter does like to pretend to be an agriculturist if there is any advantage to be derived from agricultural policies in so pretending, but it is .rather interesting to watch over the years how he does not react to agricultural policies as a true agriculturist really would do.

I think the root of the problem is essentially one of finding a satisfactory combination of economic activities which will allow the greater number of the crofters to tear thein- selves away from the crofts, leaving the land to be farmed in true agricultural fashion by quite a small minority of those who are there now. That is where, of course, you come solidly up against tradition with a capital * * T.”

J . J . MarGregor: I feel that an exiled Scot may approach the problem just as objectlvely as some

of the exiled Englishmen ! I have gained an impression that the agricultural income has been stressed too much

in Mr. Hayes’ paper, because I think fishing used to be one of the main bases of the crofting tradition ; and it is a fact that the croft is a good exporter of members of the family who may subsidise the croft economy, There are some examples of people from as far away as the South of England who have become crofters ; they have often been novelists as well.

It is refreshing to find an agricultural economist who has reached the conclusion that afforestation has a part to play in the social and economic well-being of this country. Mr. Hayes has rightly stressed the long-term nature of some afforestation which may be even longer than he implies. The policy must pay attention to the maintenance of fertility over a long period and that is where the suggestion to plant nothing but conifers may have a deleterious effect. The ecological studies in the West Highland Survey have given good reasons for the fairly drastic decline in soil fertility associated with the large scale introduction of sheep into the Scottish Highlands.

-There appear to be two reasons why Mr. Hayes’ estimate of gross financial return is likely to be low. If thinnings are included the volume production might be a t least 50 per cent. more for Sitka Spruce or in all about 12,000 cubic feet in fifty years.

In view of the enormous rise in recent months in the world price of timber and of home-grown timber since it was decontrolled in December, 1949, the estimated rate of 2/- per cubic foot is, I would argue, barely 50 per cent. of current value.

R. Barron Electricity seems to be the key to the problem of improving the peasant industries

and also the key to improving the standard of living and making the crofts more attractive. Hydro-electric power is growing rapidly, but what would be the economic position of

Proceedings of Conjerence. 57

establishing diesel generators in townships where the fuel can. be supplied by a tankcr at much more redsonable charges than the transport charges set down for fertilisers a n d food in this paper ? This would greatly improve the utility of the area.

R. H. T u c k : May I ask one question? What is the motive for arresting any decline, or feared

decline, in the population of this region ? Is i t that there are thought to exist in i t possi- bilities for production of food and of other commodities, the development of which would represent a more economical use of resources than would the further development of regions more favourably placed ? If it is not, what is i t ? Is it to preserve a way of life which is felt to be of value in itself : or is i t to secure some measure of dispersion of population ? Until the answer to this question is known i t is difficult to criticise intelligently the proposals which have been described.

- 4 . IV. Ashby:

I thought i t a happy circumstance that the Scottish Department is a composite Department and not concerned with agriculture alone. Would i t not be more appropriate t o subsidise policemen and" sailors per head than to apply these agricultural subsidies-? I t is a n interesting circumstance, which Mr. Hayes did not bring out, that at least 25 per cent. of the revenue is from direct Treasury sources. Three-quarters of i t is revenue from sales, and the only grants that are included are the agricultural grants and, in particular, if the housing grants had been added the revenue from direct Treasury sources probably would have been much highe'r than i t stands in the table.

Bu t there is a real question about the classification of these crofts. If you look at the Assessment of Income table you will find that one group has an income eleven times that of the lowest'group, and to the right of the table are several groups which have five, six, seven times the amounts of the groups on the left of the table. One would say that about halfway across they should havc been averaged, and the other half a t the right- hand end might have been averaged, and the results would have been entirely different. This may be extremely important in relation to Mr. Hayes' suggestion of a forest policy, because if one has watched for a little time the activities of the Forestry Commission. one would expect them to take the land represented on the right-hand side and not the land on the left-hand side of the table.

I would like to support Dr. Wibberly to some extent and to say that in all these calculations of agriculture upisus forestry the chief factor is t ha t of capital and capital cost, and i t is one thing to make an estimate of the revenue from timber in forestry in this particular area, and another thing t o calculate the secondary capital cost in the building of roads and bridges for the purpose of getting people and timber in and out. But this question of capital cost enters into every possible form of alleviation and improvement in marginal areas of this character. Rlr. Hayes himself said that for many of these crofts there was no approach road. Any appreciable degree of intensification and of improvement in living conditions depends in the first instance on better transport facilities. and better transport facilities means enormous capital expenditure of the building of roads, etc.

Dr. Wibberly was also putting into the picture the question of social institutions, the cost of maintaining reasonable schools in areas of very low density of population, the present position in respect of social services ; and all these things require high capital investment. and some of them high cost of annual maintenance. If we are also subsidising this crofter population up t o one-quarter of its total revenue, a little more than one-quarter of its spendable income, then the question does seriously arise, should part of this area- the par t of this area represented by the left-hand of the table-be retired from agriculture. This is not a new idea because several countries in the world. more particularly the United States, have fenced off certain of their problem areas. It might be very much more cconomical for the community a t large to get some of its sailors and policemen from other places. It is one thing for the policeman who has spent his life in Glasgow to go back to thc croft to live on his pension ; it is a totally different thing for the woman who stays there all her life, raising n future policeman in these circumstances. .4nd if these regions do not maintain families of child-bearing ages then there is no point in the community subsidising the continuance of this system.

P. iM. S c d a :

I do think that Rlr. Hayes has misled us a trifle. The areas on the extreme right of the table from 8 onwards are really not crofting areas a t all. Icintyre. for instance, is largely a dairying district and one cannot describe the farms in the lower part of Icintyre as crofts-their sales of milk bear that out.

5s Agricultural Economics Society.

It is interesting to compare the proportion of total income accruing from subsidies in the areas on the left-hand side-for instance, Nos. 1 and 2-with the areas on the extreme right where subsidies account for about 10-14 per cent. of the income. That seems to suggest that the typical croft receives a higher proportion of subsidies than do other farms. I think, however, that that is misleading. I t is perfectly true that crofters receive considerable sums for crofter housing, livestock improvement schemes, and so on, but on balance I think they do not receive a higher proportion of their farming income as subsidies than do other farmers. That is the impression we have gained from recent inquiries into the matter.

G. G. Hayes:

The value of the Survey as far as we have conducted it was simply that we wanted to know something a b o u t an area that very many people have talked about for many years, but about which there was little information the moment we tried to find out. The information was so deficient that one of the first steps was to find out how many crofts there were. No one could tell us. Although we knew the number of townships it was not until we had completed the Survey that we knew the number of crofts. That is an example of the lack of information we came across ; and it was simply to find out what the position really was that we conducted this Survey. As far as its value is concerned I think I would refer you to our Chairman when he spoke, in an earlier stage of these proceedings, of research for which we can see no immediate purpose.

There is one point, however. The area is an extremely heterogeneous one, and before any programme of rehabilitation can be devised and brought into practice it would mean, I think, an even more detailed analysis of different areas than we attempted t o do in the West Highlands Survey. That, I think, would give us a far better indication of what we can do. For instance, we would not suggest that a wholesale forestry policy be adopted in the southern part of the area. But in the more northerly parts it is obvious that something has got to be done. Then again, from an examination of population statistics in such areas as Assynt and Gairloch the time has probably gone when we can hope to do anything with the native population. A population has got to be imported into those areas. They will only go if we face up to the need for high capital expenditure on roads and houses and social facilities, and so on. If we don’t face that problem we must shrug our shoulders and say, we cannot do anything with this area. Our need is too great to waste any of these resources.

W e came across a considerable number of vacant crofts. These under existing conditions are not, and cannot be, used by anybody else. I believe they could, but the position would be that i f you put a man in, as soon as the legal owner turned up he could claim and get back immediate possession of that croft. Usually he has forgotten all about it for the time being and is keeping it until he can retire. If we want to make use of the vacant crofts then we have, I believe, to change the legal framework of the Acts of 1S86 and 1911. But the man who publicly suggests that will go in daily fear of his life ever after !

It is, however, a serious problem. Many of these townships are becoming inhabitated by retired persons, and with all due respect to Mr. Senior I do suggest that the type of person we want in the north and north-west coast is not the retired person, but a v e v vigorous population. I don’t believe we shall get that from the native population. As has been quite well explained to you, they are really a race apart ; socially, psychologically, and in every way. I would agree wholeheartedly that the essence of the problem of the crofting areas is not agricultural. I have taken the agricultural side because it is the only one I know anything about, but it is primarily psychological and social. The approach to any rehabilitation is first of all a sociological matter.

With regard to the use of electricity in the area and the reference to markets, I believe that a certain number of diesel generating plants have been established in various areas, but I imagine that the cost will be substantially greater than that for hydro-electricity. I feel that if we are going to attempt a policy of bringing industries of some sort to this area we have got to base them on the use of hydro-electricity.

As far as markets are concerned, I tackled the Forestry Commission on that, and as an example of what is likely to happen they told me of a certain area which they planted and which has now reached the thinning stage. I t is about a 25-years-old plantation. What has happened there is that the firms who manufacture fish boxes are tending to move to these areas where the timber is available simply because it is cheaper for them to haul the boxes, say, to Aberdeen, rather than to haul rough sawn timber to these places and make the boxes up on the spot. My informant gave it as his opinion that there is no reason why, when the forests in the west have been developed, these industries should

Proceedings of Conference. 59

not move there. In a sense that is the key to the whole problem. You have got to have good communications and a larger community than we have a t the moment, and a strong vigorous social organisation ; and i t is perhaps as much for that reason as for any other that one is inclined strongly to support a forest policy.

Chairittan :

We have had several expressions of appreciation made from the body of the hall of Mr. Hayes’ competent handling of this very interesting subject. I want to add my tribute and, on your behalf, to thank him very much indeed.