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Development of Cargo Aircraft Market in Russia
DENIS ILYIN, Senior Vice-Presidentfor Strategy & Commercial
Moscow, Russia18.06.08
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World Air Freight Market Will Grow 6.2% Year Through 2025RTKs, billions
800
600
400
200
History Forecast High
Base
Low
5.3% growthper year
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Average annualgrowth
2005-2025
High 7.1%Base 6.2%Low 5.4%
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Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast
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Average Growth in %
Average World Air Cargo Freight growth, 6.2%
Domestic China
Intra-Asia
Asia-North America
Europe-Asia
Latin America-North America
Latin America-Europe
Europe-North America
Intra-Europe
Europe-Middle East
North America
Russia
Europe-Africa
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
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Source: Boeing Commercial Airplanes, World Air Cargo Forecast
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Total volume in 2007г~ $80 billion
190 billion tons / kilometer41 mln tons
Market Growth Forecast (2020):
- On Non ramp Aircraft – 6%-6,2% (according to Boeing, Airbus, IATA)
- On Ramp Aircraft – 8%-10% (according to Volga-Dnepr Group’s forecast)
Air Cargo Market for ramp aircraft
Charter Services
Air Cargo Market for non ramp aircraft
Scheduled Services
1879 Aircraft ~98,5%$78,8 billion
DC-10, MD-11
A-300-330
Ил-96
Ту-204
B-747
479 AC ~1,4% $1 billion
Ан-124-100
Ил-76
Ан-12
C-130
28 AC An-124-100 $771 mln per year (2007)~ 70% market share
311 AC В747F $30 billion per year (2007)~ 38% market share
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Scheduled cargo operations market (2007)
$80 billion
Ramp aircraft operations market 2007
$1 billion
Ukraine and other countries
26%
Russian civil
aviation74 %
By 2020 Russian transport aviation development strategy specifies:
1. Increase in dominant position of ramp aircraft cargo operations (from 74% up to 90%). Already now Russian cargo air carriers play the role of international military-cargo airlines. With all that US, European and UNO show the growing need in the services of Russian ramp aircraft air carriers.
2. Expansion on the market of general cargo transportation and share growth on this market (from 1% up to 10%) .
Europeancountries
24%
Russian civil aviation
1,4 %
othercountries
7,6 %
USA31%
Asian andPacificRegion
countries1,4 %
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Ch
art
er
Se
rvic
es
Sc
he
du
led
S
erv
ice
s
Current Ramp Cargo Fleet (150 aircraft)
Current Non Ramp Cargo Fleet (21 aircraft) Non Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (92 aircraft)
An-124
Il-76
An-124
Il-76
В747FВ747F
≤10 tons; 3; 14%
10-30 Tons; 5; 24%
≥ 100 tons; 12; 16%
30-100 tons; 1; 16%
≤10tons; 91; 63%
10-30 Tons; 28; 16%
≥ 100 tons; 16; 11%
30-100 tons; 15; 10%
≤10 tons; 28; 21%
Medium 10-30Tons; 12; 9%
≥ 100 tons; 55; 39%
30-100 tons; 41; 31%
≤10 tons; 8; 11%
10-30 Tons; 24; 36%
≥ 100 tons; 20; 27%
30-100 tons; 19; 26%
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30-100 tons; 19; 25%
10-30 tons; 24; 32%
≥100 tons; 25; 32%
≤ 10 tons; 8; 11%
30-100 tons; 6; 29%
≥100 tons; 12; 57%
10-30 tons; 3; 14%
Source: Volga-Dnepr Group Forecast
Ramp Cargo Fleet Forecast (136 aircraft)
212
B 747
B 747
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Total volume
$80 billion
Total volume
$105 billion
Total volume
$55 billion
Market volume
$160 billion
Russia 1,3%
OtherCountries
98,6%
OtherCountries
92,0%
OtherCountries
84,0%
OtherCountries
98,7%
Russia 1,4%
Russia 8,0% Russia
16,0%
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7
Europe
India
Middle East, Africa
Singapore
Krasnoyarsk
KhabarovskMoscow
China
St.Petersburg
USA
IndiaSingapore
Krasnoyarsk
Khabarovsk
China
Canada
Moscow
Moscow – natural geographical hub connecting Europe to Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and South-East Asia
Krasnoyarsk – natural geographical hub connecting USA, Europe & Canada to China, Japan and South-East Asia
USA Canada
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Europe
DC-10, MD-11 B-747, 777
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MoscowKrasnoyarsk
8
KJA
UUS
MOW
LAX
MIL LED
FRA
NRT
NGO
HKG
SIN
KUL
DEL
TLV
NYC
YYCHOU
ORD
NBO
AMSLHR
BJS
SHA
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B 747-8F
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Total Aircraft Aircraft Type Delivery/Retirement Schedule Current Status
2 2 x Boeing 747-200 (VP-BIA, BIB)
April 2004, July 2005 Retired in 2007-2008
3 1 x Boeing 747-300SF (VP-BIC) October 2005 In Service
4 1 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BID) June 2006 (NCA) In Service
6 2 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BII, BIJ) March 2007 (NCA) In Service
5 2 x Boeing 747-200F (VP-BIA) September 2007 Retired in 2007
6 Boeing 747- 400ERF (VP-BIG) October 2007 (Boeing) In Service
8 Boeing 747-400ERF February & April 2008 (Boeing) In Service
7 Boeing 747-200 (VP-BIB) March 2008 Retired in 2008
8-12 Boeing 747-8 2010-2013 (Boeing) On Order
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2004
2008
2007
2006
2005
2020
2010-13
Boeing 747-200
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Boeing 747-200
2
Boeing 747-200
+ 1
Boeing 747-200
+ 1
2 x Boeing 747-200
1 x Boeing 747 -400 ERF
+3
Boeing 747-400 ERF
+ 2
Boeing 747 – 8F
+ 5
Boeing 747-8F
+ 5
Boeing 747-200
- 1
- 1
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Cities with population morethan 1mln people
Regions of significanteconomic growth
Source: Ministry of Economic of RFFederal State Statistics Service
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Oil & Gas Exploration fields
MOSCOW (SVO)
YUZHNO-SAKHALINSK
(UUS)KRASNOYARSK (KJA)
KHABAROVSK (KHV)
ST. PETERSBURG (LED)
AirBridgeCargo Hubs ABC Schedule Service Air Feeder Service
Road Feeder Service
Ту-204
B-737, 757, 767
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A320F, A330F
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While Boeing 747 freighters offer capacity on long haul international routes, regional aircraft will complement transcontinental services with local distribution capabilities. Tupolev 204C has been selected as the middle range aircraft type to serve Russian domestic markets from ABC hubs in Moscow and Krasnoyarsk. In June 2007, two planes of this type have been ordered with AVIASTAR-SP (Ulyanovsk, Russia), and 3 more are in plans until 2010
Aircraft Aircraft Type Delivery Schedule Status
1-2 Tupolev-204C 2009 Quarter 1 In production
3-5 Tupolev-204C Until 2010 On Option
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