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Detroit Dialogue: Sprawl & Consequences
European Marshall Memorial Fellows
Erica Raleigh, Data Driven Detroit October 2014
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Source: U.S. EPA
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“Housing Disassembly Line”
¨ Since 1950 we have built an average of 10,000 more housing units in the tri-county area each year than households required
¨ Excess supply on the fringe causes successive filtering outward, leaving tens of thousands of vacant dwellings in the core
Source: George Galster, Driving Detroit: The Quest for Respect in the Motor City
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285,
704
467,
766
993,
678
1,56
8,66
2
1,62
3,45
2
1,84
9,56
8
1,67
0,14
4
1,51
4,06
3
1,20
3,36
8
1,02
7,97
4
951,
270
713,
777
296,
532
293,
715
474,
286 81
3,53
3
990,
392
1,49
5,22
5
2,51
1,21
0
3,22
1,94
5
3,47
9,35
8
3,56
2,49
4
3,88
2,22
3
3,99
0,96
6
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Detroit 7-County Suburbs
The 1950’s Marked the Turning Point for Detroit’s Population Decline
Source: Census Bureau
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GENESEELAPEER
LIVINGSTON
MONROE
ST.CLAIR
WASHTENAW
MACOMB
OAKLAND
WAYNE
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0 5 102.5Miles °Sources: US Census SF1 2000, 2010.
Data Driven Detroit. Created May 2013.
Pct Change Total Pop.By Census Tract
-100.0% to -20.0%
-19.9% to -10.0%
-9.9% to 0.0%
0.1% to 10.0%
10.1% to 20.0%
20.1% and above
No Pop. 2000 and 2010
Counties
Municipalities
Percent Changein Population 2000-2010,By Census Tract,Tri-County Area, MI
2000-2010 Population Change
Detroit: -25%
Inner ring Ferndale: -10%
Dearborn: +0.4% Southfield: -8%
Fringe
Oakland Charter Township: +28% Lenox Township: +24%
Canton Township: +18%
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GENESEELAPEER
LIVINGSTON
MONROE
ST.CLAIR
WASHTENAW
MACOMB
OAKLAND
WAYNE
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0 5 102.5
Miles °Sources: US Census SF1 2010.
Data Driven Detroit. Created May 2013.
Pct Vacant Housing Units
By Census Tract
0.0% to 4.9%
5.0% to 9.9%
10.0% to 14.9%
15.0% to 19.9%
20.0% to 24.9%
25.0% and above
No Housing Units
Counties
Municipalities
Percent Vacant
Housing Units 2010,
By Census Tract,
Tri-County Area, MI
Detroit Stats
Vacant commercial and residential addresses (2013):
28.3%
Parcels without structures (2014): 30.2%
Publicly owned parcels (2014):
>80,000
Tax foreclosures, soon to be publicly owned parcels:
70,000-90,000
(~380,000 parcels in Detroit)
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Detroit Housing
¨ 61% of owner-occupied housing units are valued below $50,000
¨ 34% of these households pay more than 30% of household income on housing
¨ 66% of renter-occupied households pay more than 30% of household income on housing
Source: Census Bureau, 2013 ACS
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7.0%
16.2
%
17.9
%
21.0
%
25.9
%
9.3%
8.2%
25.8
%
24.3
%
15.7
%
38.1
%
13.4
%
45.4
%
29.1
%
27.5
%
26.2
%
50.0
%
46.3
%
77.4
%
45.7
%
68.7
%
33.6
%
45.1
%
63.2
%
65.6
%
24.2
%
29.4
%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Detroit Cleveland Chicago Indianapolis Pittsburgh Atlanta Los Angeles Phoenix Portland
Beyond 10 Miles
3 to 10 Miles
Within 3 Miles
Detroit is the Most Decentralized (Sprawled) Employment Metro in the US
Source: Brookings Institution, Job Sprawl Revisited, 2009
• 108,000 Jobs lost between 1998 and 2006 • 3.1% Growth of jobs beyond 10 miles away
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Employment:Population Unemployment Rate
United States 58.6 8.1%
Detroit-Warren-Livonia MSA 53.3 10.5%
Wayne County 47.7 13.8%
Detroit 39.7 19.7%
Detroit’s unemployment rate is 2.5 times that of the U.S., with an employment to population ratio level at 2/3 of the U.S.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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GENESEELAPEER
LIVINGSTON
MONROE
ST.CLAIR
WASHTENAW
MACOMB
OAKLAND
WAYNE
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0 5 102.5Miles °Sources: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate 2007-2011.
Data Driven Detroit. Created May 2013.
Pct College Grad 25+By Census Tract
0.0% to 7.9%
8.0% to 13.9%
14.0% to 19.9%
20.0% to 29.9%
30.0% to 44.9%
45.0% to 82.9%
No Pop 25+
Counties
Municipalities
Percent College GraduateAges 25 And Up 2007-2011,By Census Tract,Tri-County Area, MI
Detroit Stats (2013), Population 25 and Older
Bachelor’s degree or higher:
13%
High school diploma or less: 54%
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0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
United States Michigan Macomb Oakland Washtenaw Out-Wayne Detroit
Bachelor's Degree or Higher
Associate's Degree
Some College, no Degree
HS Graduate
Less than HS
Michigan and Parts of SE Michigan, particularly Detroit, Trail the Nation in Education Attainment of Working Age (25-64 Years) Population
Source: Census Bureau, 2010 ACS
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Detroit Stats (2013)
Total population in poverty: 41%
Children in poverty:
59%
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GENESEELAPEER
LIVINGSTON
MONROE
ST.CLAIR
WASHTENAW
MACOMB
OAKLAND
WAYNE
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0 5 102.5Miles °Sources: American Community Survey 5-Year Estimate 2007-2011.
Data Driven Detroit. Created May 2013.
Median HH Income
By Census Tract
$0.00 to $25,000.00
$25,000.01 to $40,000.00
$40,000.01 to $50,000.00
$50,000.01 to $60,000.00
$60,000.01 to $80,000.00
$80,000.01 to $171,701.00
Counties
Municipalities
Median Household
Income 2007-2011,
By Census Tract,Tri-County Area, MI
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Median Household Income in 2010 Adjusted US Dollars 1999 (2000 Census) 2010 ACS Change Percent Change
United States 54,941 50,046 -4,905 -8.90%
Michigan 58,449 45,413 -13,036 -22.30%
Detroit MSA 64,348 48,198 -16,150 -25.10%
City of Detroit 38,636 29,526 -12,849 -33.30%
Source: 2000 Census and 2010 ACS
*Note: All 1999 monetary values are adjusted to 2010 US dollars using the US Consumer Price Research Series index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U-RS) from 1999 to 2009. Source: US Department of Labor
Household Incomes Throughout Michigan Have Decreased at Rates Three Times that of the Nation
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Detroit Revenue Sources
¨ Property tax
¨ Income tax
¨ Other local taxes
¨ State revenue sharing
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Detroit Revenue Sources
¨ Property tax ¤ Declining occupancy, decreasing values
¨ Income tax ¤ High unemployment, low income, business
exodus
¨ Other local taxes ¤ Decline expected to continue
¨ State revenue sharing ¤ Continuing decline
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Is Detroit Dead? - Peter Eisinger, Journal of Urban
Affairs, October 27, 2013
Photo Sources: nytimes.com
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Solution?
¨ Detroit’s situation is the result of forces operating beyond its borders, and Detroit-centric solutions will not be enough.
¨ The only path forward to enact real change must be regional in scope.
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Resources
¨ Data Driven Detroit ¤ Open Data Site ¤ One D Scorecard ¤ Other Interactive Tools
¨ Motor City Mapping ¨ Detroit Blight Removal Task Force ¨ Detroit Future City ¨ City of Detroit Dashboard
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Erica Raleigh [email protected] TechTown 440 Burroughs #330 Detroit, Michigan 48202
www.DataDrivenDetroit.org