Download - Demo analysis05 02
Empire State Development
Course Objectives
• Provide a general understanding of demographic processes
• Relate this to available data sources• Understand limitations of methods and data• Understand how the Cohort Component
method for population projections works• Understand why we use the Cohort
Component method• Leave with a model that allows you to prepare
county level population projections
Empire State Development
Objectives of Participants
• Problems faced:– what is “best” method for pop. Projections– need to defend methodology and validity of
projections• What application areas do demographic
projections impact:– education– health planning– transportation– watershed buildout
Empire State Development
Objectives of Participants
• What demographic data do you need– sub-county projections by age and race– sub-county income and poverty estimates
• Do you buy demographic data - NO• Decisions/Recommendations
– grant applications– research– future needs
• What do you hope to learn– understand methodology/variables to be used– advantages of different methods
Empire State Development
Measuring Population Change• Some definitions:
– Residence (defacto, dejure)– Residents (total, non-institutional, GQ, HH
pop)– Time period (monthly, annual, 5-year, 10-
year)– Geographic area– Coverage– Age
• age heaping• grouped data
Empire State Development
Some Statistical Terms
• Proportions: the number of observations of a subgroup divided by the total number of observations. The value in the numerator is a part of the denominator.– What’s the proportion of women in the
population ?? Total Females / Total Population
• Percentage: a proportion expressed per 100 cases– What percentage of the population is female?
Total Females / Total Population * 100
Empire State Development
Some Statistical Terms
• Rate: the number of events in a given time period divided by the population (usually the average over the period of time - midpoint, often expressed per 1000 population)– What’s New York’s birth rate?
No. of Births / Total Population * 1000
• Probability: a rate expressed for the population at the beginning of the period - the population at risk– What is the probability of a person exact age
23 dying before reaching their 30th birthday?You don’t really want the formula!!
Empire State Development
Population Change
= P1 - P0
New York State, 1990 to 2000985,679 = 18,976,457 - 17,990,778
Average Annual Change98,568 = 985,679 / 10
Assumes that change is linear
Empire State Development
Population Change - LinearPercent Change % = / P0 * 100
5.4788 = 985,679 / 17,990,778 * 100
Average Annual Percent Change.5479 = 5.4788 / 10
Average Annual Growth Rater = / (1/2 (P0 + P1))
r = (985,679 / 18,483,617) / 10r = 0.0053327
Empire State Development
How Does Population Change
1. People are born into a population
2. People die and leave the population
3. People migrate to and from areas
Empire State Development
Components of ChangeThe Balancing Equation
Closed PopulationP1 = P0 + (B - D) + e
Opened PopulationP1 = P0 + (B - D) + (I - O) + e
P1 = P0 + (B - D) + (NM) + e
Empire State Development
Components of Change
• Births and Deaths– Vital Statistics Registration System - Vital
Events– Birth, Death, Induced Termination,
Marriage, Divorce– Place of residence vs. place of occurance– Reported to county office of vital statistics– Compiled by State Department of Health,
National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)– 1 to 2 year reporting lag
Empire State Development
Components of Change
• Migration– Few direct measures– Decennial Census: residence 5 years earlier– Internal Revenue Service: address changes
on tax returns– Residual Estimates: what’s left over
Empire State Development
New York StateComponents of Change
P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM
18,976,457 = 17,990,778 +Births1: 2,943,192 -
Deaths1: 1,740,620 +Net Migration: -216,893
1 - estimated from NYS DOH/NCHS
Empire State Development
Components of ChangeNew York State
-200,000-100,000
0100,000
200,000300,000
400,000500,000
600,000700,000
800,000900,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Births Deaths Change Net Migrants
Empire State Development
Declining County - ClintonComponents of Change
P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM
79,894 = 85,969 +Births1: 9,904 -
Deaths1: 6,136 +Net Migration: -9,843
1 - estimated from NYS DOH/NCHS
Empire State Development
Components of ChangeClinton County
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Births Deaths Change Net Migrants
Empire State Development
Stable County - St. LawrenceComponents of Change
P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM
111,931 = 111,974 +Births1: 13,398 -
Deaths1: 10,194 +Net Migration: -3,247
1 - estimated from NYS DOH/NCHS
Empire State Development
Components of ChangeSt. Lawrence County
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Births Deaths Change Net Migrants
Empire State Development
Growing County - RichmondComponents of Change
P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM
443,728 = 378,977 +Births1: 60,890 -
Deaths1: 34,246 +Net Migration: 38,107
1 - estimated from NYS DOH/NCHS
Empire State Development
Components of ChangeRichmond County
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Births Deaths Change Net Migrants
Empire State Development
The Balancing Equation - Refined
• For females, 20 to 24 years old P1
20-24,f = P020-24,f + (B0,1
20-24,f - D0,120-24,f) + NM0,1
20-24,f
P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM
• For population sub-groups: P1
a,s,r = P0a,s,r + (B0,1
a,s,r - D0,1a,s,r) + NM0,1
a,s,r
P120-24,f = P0
15-19,f + (B0,120-24,f - D0,1
15-19,f) + NM0,115-19,f
Empire State Development
Population Change
Period Analysis vs. Cohort Analysis
• Cohort Statistics - a population subgroup that shares a common demographic event, e.g. age cohort, marriage cohort
• Period Statistics - a combination of cohorts observed at a given point in time
Empire State Development
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Exact Age 75
Exact Age 80
Dec. 31LEXUS DIAGRAM
Exact Age 30
Exact Age 35
Exact Age 10
Exact Age 15
Exact Age 20
Exact Age 25
Jan. 1
Exact Age 0
Exact Age 5
Empire State Development
Birth Year Age Progression
1995 2000 2005 2010
2005-2010 0-42000-2005 0-4 5-91995-2000 0-4 5-9 10-141990-1995 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-191985-1990 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-241980-1985 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-291975-1980 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-341970-1975 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-391965-1970 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-441960-1965 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-491955-1960 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-541950-1955 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-591945-1950 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-641940-1945 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-691935-1940 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-741930-1935 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-791925-1930 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-841920-1925 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+1915-1920 75-79 80-84 85+1910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Age in Year:Birth Year1995 2000 2005 2010
0-4 0-4 0-4 0-45-9 5-9 5-9 5-9
10-14 10-14 10-14 10-1415-19 15-19 15-19 15-1920-24 20-24 20-24 20-2425-29 25-29 25-29 25-2930-34 30-34 30-34 30-3435-39 35-39 35-39 35-3940-44 40-44 40-44 40-4445-49 45-49 45-49 45-4950-54 50-54 50-54 50-5455-59 55-59 55-59 55-5960-64 60-64 60-64 60-6465-69 65-69 65-69 65-6970-74 70-74 70-74 70-7475-79 75-79 75-79 75-7980-84 80-84 80-84 80-8485+ 85+ 85+ 85+
Age in Year:
Empire State Development
Population Change by Age
1990 2000 Number Percent Number Percent
0-4 6,452 4,102 -2,350 -36.425-9 6,165 5,159 -1,006 -16.32 -1,293 -20.04
10-14 5,528 5,682 154 2.79 -483 -7.8315-19 6,767 6,400 -367 -5.42 872 15.7720-24 9,450 6,949 -2,501 -26.47 182 2.6925-29 8,789 4,974 -3,815 -43.41 -4,476 -47.3730-34 8,026 5,767 -2,259 -28.15 -3,022 -34.3835-39 6,644 7,025 381 5.73 -1,001 -12.4740-44 5,479 6,657 1,178 21.50 13 0.2045-49 4,217 5,711 1,494 35.43 232 4.2350-54 3,570 4,966 1,396 39.10 749 17.7655-59 3,393 3,792 399 11.76 222 6.2260-64 3,171 3,227 56 1.77 -166 -4.8965-69 2,665 2,906 241 9.04 -265 -8.3670-74 2,016 2,492 476 23.61 -173 -6.4975-79 1,712 1,833 121 7.07 -183 -9.0880-84 1,111 1,162 51 4.59 -550 -32.1385+ 814 1,090 276 33.91 -835 -75.16
Total 85,969 79,894 -6,075 -7.07 6,068 7.06
Period Change Cohort ChangeAge
Empire State Development
Population Pyramid
Population PyramidNew York State, 1990
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Male
Female
Population PyramidNew York State 2000
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
0-4
10-14
20-24
30-34
40-44
50-54
60-64
70-74
80-84
Male
Female
Empire State Development
Cohort Component Model (cont’d)
1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Birth Year
Age of Population
in 2000
Age of Population
in 2005
Empire State Development
Cohort Component Model (cont’d)
1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Birth Year
Enumerated 2000
Population
Age of Population
in 2000
Age of Population
in 2005
Empire State Development
Cohort Component Model (cont’d)
1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Survival
Birth Year
Enumerated 2000
Population
Age of Population
in 2000Survival
Rate
Age of Population
in 2005
Empire State Development
Cohort Component Model (cont’d)
1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Survival
Birth Year
Enumerated 2000
Population
Age of Population
in 2000Survival
RateSurvivors of Initial Pop.
Age of Population
in 2005
Empire State Development
Cohort Component Model (cont’d)
1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Survival
Birth Year
Enumerated 2000
Population
Age of Population
in 2000Survival
RateSurvivors of Initial Pop.
Migration Rate
Migration Age of Population
in 2005
Empire State Development
Cohort Component Model (cont’d)
1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Survival
Birth Year
Enumerated 2000
Population
Age of Population
in 2000Survival
RateSurvivors of Initial Pop.
Migration Rate Migrants
Migration Age of Population
in 2005
Empire State Development
Cohort Component Model (cont’d)
1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Survival
Birth Year
Enumerated 2000
Population
Age of Population
in 2000Survival
RateSurvivors of Initial Pop.
Migration Rate Migrants
Migration Births to Women 15 to 44
Age of Population
in 2005
Empire State Development
Cohort Component Model (cont’d)
1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+
Survival
Birth Year
Enumerated 2000
Population
Age of Population
in 2000Survival
RateSurvivors of Initial Pop.
Migration Rate Migrants
Migration Projected 2005
Population
Births to Women 15 to 44
Age of Population
in 2005