![Page 1: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Risks to the Air Force Mission from
Declining Energy Security
Delivering Air Power through the
Next Great Energy Transition
Wing Commander Mia Clapton
![Page 2: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Introduction
‘An energy transition … is inevitable; the only
questions are when and how abruptly or smoothly
such a transition occurs.’
‘An energy transition from one type of fuel to
another is an event that historically has only
happened once a century at most with momentous
consequences.’
United States (US) National Intelligence Council
![Page 3: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The Oil Transition
Hubbert’s Curve describes ‘peak’ oil production
![Page 4: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Energy Security
Availability Affordability Reliability
![Page 5: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Economic Security
Geo-political Security
National
Security
Military Security
![Page 6: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The Mission of the RAAF
Air Power Effects for Australia’s Interests
![Page 7: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The Global Oil Transition
Establishing the context for identifying Air Force Risks
The scale and breadth of the energy challenge is enormous – far greater than
many people realise.
International Energy Agency (IEA), 2009
![Page 9: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Oil Depletion and Peak Oil
Typical oil production
profile for
(a) a single field
(b) a region consisting
of an aggregation
of progressively
smaller fields
![Page 10: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The ‘Early Peak’ Argument
The growing gap: Past conventional oil discoveries
![Page 11: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Global Average
Annual Crude Oil
Production
(2001-2015)
![Page 12: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Global transportation fuel demand
![Page 14: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
The spectrum of
liquid fuels:
conventional to
unconventional
![Page 15: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
High EROEI Low EROEI
Volume of
Energy
Discretionary - consumption
and investment
Essentials –
food, welfare,
government, law
Reinvested in
energy extraction
Volume of
Energy
Discretionary - consumption
and investment
Essentials –
food, welfare,
government, lawReinvested in
energy extraction
Energy Returned on Energy Investment and the Impact on Society
![Page 16: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Major Recessions since 1970 correlated with oil price shocks
![Page 17: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The ‘Late or No Peak’ Argument
![Page 18: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
IEA Oil production estimates over the years
![Page 19: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Crude Oil
Production and
Capital
Expenditure
Brent Crude
Oil Prices
(2000-2015)
![Page 20: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Peak Oil and Risk Management
Future supply projections
developed from the Monte
Carlo simulation using
petroleum geology and oil
supply expert analyses
![Page 22: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Declining Availability and
Affordability of Oil
Australian Vulnerability to the Global Oil Transition
![Page 23: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Oil Depletion and
Australia’s Energy Security
Actual (blue) and predicted (red) Australian crude oil production
![Page 24: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Australia’s total oil production and consumption (1992-2014)
![Page 25: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Australian Imports of Crude Oil (2012-13)
![Page 26: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Australia’s Vulnerability to Declining
Long Term Energy Security
Type of energy used in major Australian industry sectors
![Page 27: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Oil Depletion in Australian Government
Inquiries and Research Reports
‘[I]n the committee’s view the possibility of a peak of conventional oil production before 2030 should be a matter of concern.’
‘In view of the enormous changes that will be needed to move to a less oil dependent future, Australia should be planning for it now.’
The Senate Standing Committee on Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport, 2007
![Page 28: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
‘There is likely to be only moderate preparation by individuals and businesses in relation to the possible decline in oil supplies due to the uncertainty surrounding such an event.’
‘As a result, there is an argument for greater government intervention...’
CSIRO Future Fuels Forum, 2008
![Page 29: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Total world oil production
‘[I]t is predicted that we have entered … onto a slightly upward slanting plateau in potential oil production that will last only to about 2016.’
BITRE, 2008
![Page 30: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Oil Depletion in
Australian Government Energy Policy
‘The spectre of ‘peak oil’ should … not be used to panic policy makers into wholesale interventions in the market.’
ACIL Tasman, 2011
![Page 31: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
‘[T]here is a very low probability of reaching global supply limits (so-called ‘peak oil’) in the period to 2035.’
DRET, 2011
![Page 32: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Oil Depletion and
Australian Defence Policy
‘[O]n the matter of peak oil, oil shocks and alternatives to oil, Defence’s current policy stance does not sufficiently protect Australia’s Defence capability against foreseeable risk.’
Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, 2009
![Page 34: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
The Geopolitics of Oil and the
Militarisation of Energy Security
Implications for Australia’s Strategic Interests
‘Our strategic environment is undergoing many points of transition; the assumptions of the past will not necessarily define our future.’
General D.J. Hurley, Chief of the Defence Force
![Page 35: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
The Geopolitics of Oil: Energy Exporters
The Strategic Energy Ellipse
![Page 36: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
The Geopolitics of Oil: Energy Importers
‘In the future, nations will go to war over resources, especially those nations prone to resource scarcity. Of all of the world’s resources, none is more likely to provoke conflict between nations in this new century than oil.’
Jim Puplava, 2014
![Page 37: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
World Oil Chokepoints
![Page 38: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
The Geopolitics of Oil:
The Extreme Case of State Failure
![Page 40: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
The Militarisation of Energy Security
‘The issue of energy security is one in which governments, and defence organisations, will increasingly have to be engaged… States who perceive that energy security is impacting on national survival are likely to challenge conventional interpretations on the legality of the use of force.’
UK Ministry of Defence, 2010
![Page 41: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Australia’s Strategic Defence Interests
and Objectives
A secure Australia
A secure nearer region
A stable Indo-Pacific region
A rules-based global order
![Page 42: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Defence Policy Response to the
Militarisation of Energy Security
‘[I]ncreased demand for imported commodities is unlikely to lead to major interstate conflict as long as the global market operates freely, since it is cheaper to pay for a commodity than to go to war for it.
However, the likelihood of miscalculation is higher where conflicting territorial claims and resource imperatives overlap, such as in the South China Sea.’
Department of Defence, 2013
![Page 43: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
‘Around 40 per cent of the world’s offshore oil production comes from the Indian Ocean. Over the next 20 years, the Indian Ocean will see a substantial increase in intra-regional maritime trade, including in energy…’
‘The Indian Ocean region is also likely to become a more significant zone of competition among major powers, with China, India and the United States all increasing their levels of military activity in this region.’
Department of Defence, 2016
![Page 44: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
The Militarisation of Energy Security
and the Implications for Air Force
![Page 45: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Declining Reliability of Liquid Fuels
Australian Vulnerability to Disruption of Supply
![Page 46: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Australia’s Declining
Domestic Refining Capacity
Liquid fuel infrastructure in Australia (as at 2013)
![Page 47: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Australia’s Increased Reliance on
Petroleum Product Imports
Australian Imports of Petroleum Products (2012-13)
![Page 48: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Australia’s Liquid Fuel Supply Chain
Australia’s major import shipping routes – petroleum products.
![Page 49: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Shipping Lanes and Strategic Passages in Pacific Asia
![Page 50: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
‘Liquid fuel in transit to Australia through some of the world's geopolitical hotspots is not fuel security, it is wishful thinking.’
Engineers Australia, 2015
![Page 51: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Australian Commercial Stockholding
Practices
:Australian Supply Chain – Stocks as days consumption cover
![Page 52: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
‘Australia does not hold government-controlled or regulated industry stocks for drawdown in an emergency, and our capacity for short-term surge production and fuel-switching is limited.’
Energy White Paper, 2012
![Page 53: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
Australian obligations to the
International Energy Agency (IEA)
![Page 54: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Responses to Australia’s vulnerability to
liquid fuel disruption
‘Apart from the highly exceptional
circumstances that could arise from major
unforeseen national, regional or global
security events, the Australian Government
believes that … energy security developments
considered possible in the foreseeable future
can be managed effectively using existing
energy security mechanisms and market
responses.’
Energy White Paper 2012
![Page 55: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
‘Energy security assessments
should not consider ‘national
security’ settings and
scenarios in which crude oil
or product supply is disrupted
for an extended period by
widespread military conflict.’
Australian Institute of Petroleum, 2015
‘Energy and economic security issues
are distinct from national security
issues.’
![Page 56: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
The National Security, Economic
Security and Energy Security Nexus
‘There is little comfort in an
energy security assessment
that is only valid during
times of peace and regional
stability.’
John Blackburn AO
![Page 57: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Recommendation 1
‘The Australian Government undertake a
comprehensive whole-of-government risk
assessment of Australia's fuel supply,
availability and vulnerability. ‘
‘The assessment should consider the
vulnerabilities in Australia's fuel supply to
possible disruptions resulting from military
actions, acts of terrorism, natural disasters,
industrial accidents and financial and other
structural dislocation.’
Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport
References Committee, 2015
![Page 58: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Defence Policy Response to Australia’s
vulnerability to liquid fuel disruption
Recommendation 6
‘Defence adopt a more assertive strategy with regard to oil shocks and alternative fuels, with the specific purpose of providing a capability to mitigate risk due to a dependence on oil-based fuels.’
‘Defence should provide such a capability, sufficient to maintain an identified core capability, within a timeframe of 10 years.’
Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, 2009
![Page 59: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Military Energy Security and Defence
Operational Energy Vulnerabilities
‘Fossil fuels, while the lifeblood and
enabler of air power, are also its
Achilles’ heel.’
Group Captain Maurice Dixon,
Royal Air Force (RAF)
![Page 60: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Operational Energy
‘The energy required for training,
moving, and sustaining military
forces and weapons platforms for
military operations.’
US Department of Defense, 2016
![Page 61: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
The Logistics and Financial Burden of
Operational Energy
![Page 62: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Defence’s Operational Energy Use
Defence Fuel Use Location
![Page 63: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
8%
59%
33%
Army
Navy
Air Force
Defence Fuel Consumption
![Page 64: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Defence Fuel Supply Chain
Vulnerabilities
‘Fuel is a critical enabler for all Defence activities and has the potential
to be the greatest supply chain risk in the medium to longer term.’
Joint Logistics Command, 2010
![Page 65: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
‘Fuel storage and supply is a
critical limiting factor for air
bases.’
Australian Defence Force Posture Review, 2012
![Page 66: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Diversifying fuel sources:
The interoperability imperative
![Page 67: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Energy considerations for future
Defence capabilities
‘As we are making capability decisions often with 30-year outcomes, energy
needs to be properly conceptualised from the tactical to the strategic level,
and will need to be more prominent in capability decisions.’ Air Vice-Marshal Hart, 2014
![Page 68: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Defence Fuel Management:
Organisation, Governance, and Culture
Strategic
Policy
Executive
Joint
Capability
Coordination
(JCC) Division
Joint Logistics
Command
(JLC)
Estate and
Infrastructure
Group (E&IG)
Three
Services
-Defence’s
strategic policy
- engagement with
industry
-Overall energy
preparedness and
integration
-Set strategic fuel
policy
-manage the fuel
supply chain
- purchase fuel
- act as the
technical authority
for fuel
- Design,
construct,
maintain and (for
some
establishments)
operate the
Defence Fuel
Installations
(DFIs)
-Set fuel
consumption
targets
- allocate funds for
the purchase of
fuel
-Determine
reserve
stockholding
requirements
The fragmented nature of Defence Fuel Management
![Page 69: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Implications for Air Force relating to
Defence operational energy vulnerabilities
![Page 70: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
Key Findings
![Page 71: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
The oil transition presents a classic
risk management problem
![Page 72: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
Where national security meets energy
security, Australia is vulnerable
![Page 73: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Australian Government policy fails to
address the link between economic
security, energy security and national
security
![Page 74: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
Declining energy security will challenge
the Air Force’s ability to achieve its
mission
![Page 75: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
Recommendations for Future Work
![Page 76: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
Recommendation for future research
Economic Security
Geo-political Security
National
Security
Military Security
Energy Security
A better understanding of the National Security and Energy Security Nexus in Australia
![Page 77: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Recommendation for Air Force
Develop a risk management strategy to analyse, evaluate and treat the identified risks.
![Page 78: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
Questions?
![Page 79: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
![Page 80: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
Defence Policy Response to Australia’s
vulnerability to liquid fuel disruption
Reliance on Commercial
Providers
‘In the event of an oil shock
Defence will have access to a
proportion of fuel oil available in
the domestic market’. Department of Defence, 2009
‘It is not the role for fuel
suppliers to hold buffer stocks to
guarantee the ongoing business
operations of major fuel users
during a major fuel supply
disruption.’
Australian Institute of Petroleum, 2013
![Page 81: Delivering Air Power through the Next Great Energy Transition€¦ · security, it is wishful thinking. ... address the link between economic security, energy security and national](https://reader033.vdocuments.site/reader033/viewer/2022042621/5f5c25f2f6f4f6633a0ecf72/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
‘[As] World War Two experience
faded from the collective memory
of policymakers, as the defence of
Australia became a less
immediate concern… national
emergency fuel legislation moved
away from a defence focus.’
Martin White, 2013
Reliance on Australian Liquid
Fuel Emergency Legislation
‘In the event of a sudden scarcity of
oil, Defence would have recourse to
a framework established under
federal legislation...’
Department of Defence, 2009