Decoupling freshwater and marine effects on the early marine survival of steelhead
smolts through Puget SoundMegan Moore
Barry Berejikian
Manchester Laboratory, NOAA Fisheries
NWFSC
Previous Puget Sound Telemetry StudiesHood Canal Rivers: 2006-2010Moore, Berejikian, et al. (NWFSC)
Green River: 2006-2009Fred Goetz, Tom Quinn et al (UW, ACOE)
Puyallup River: 2006, 2008-2009Andrew Berger et al. (Puyallup Tribe)
Nisqually River: 2006-2009Sayre Hodgson et al. (Nisqually Tribe)
Skagit River: 2006-2009Ed Conner et al. (Seattle City Light)
Nisqually (W)
Puyallup (W)
Puyallup (H)
Green (W)
Green (H)
Skagit (W)
Skagit (H)
Surv
ival P
roba
bility
(%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Skokomish (W)
Skokomish (H)
Dewatto (W)
Hamma (H)
Duckabush (H)
Big Beef Creek (W)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Surv
ival P
roba
bility
(%)
A
B
Puget Sound
Hood Canal
• Low marine survival rates
• Hatchery fish generally had lower survival
• Lower survival for longer migration distances
rivermarine
Salish Sea Marine Survival Project
2013 Steelhead Technical Team convened to determine causes of declines in marine survival
What we know:
• Steelhead marine survival through Puget Sound is LOW, likely limiting recovery
What we don’t know:
• Mechanisms of mortality: what is it about the Puget Sound migration that is causing fish to die?
6/10/2016 5
2014 Telemetry efforts began with the following objectives:
• Separate freshwater effects (habitat conditions and hatchery influence) from marine effects on marine survival
• Identify areas of low survival (‘hot spots’)
• Investigate effects of body size, outmigration timing, marine entry point
Treatment vs. control
Green River Watershed Nisqually River Watershed
• Lower watershed 75% industrial/residential • Lower watershed 5% industrial/residential
• Degraded riparian zone (lower river 95% armored)
• Healthy riparian zone
• 2% of historic estuary/mudflats remains • Largest undeveloped delta in Puget Sound
• Steelhead hatchery since 1964 • No steelhead released since 1994
Green River Watershed Nisqually River Watershed
Commercial/residential Federal conservation land State trust forest landUndeveloped State conservation land Agricultural use
The Experiment Smolts collected at Nisqually R. and Green R. smolt traps Surgically implanted with Vemco V7 acoustic transmitters Held overnight in flow-through tanks at trap/tagging location Released at RKM 19 the following morning at either home or away location
GREENPOPULATION
NISQUALLYPOPULATION
Release Week Away Home Away Home Delay TOTAL
1 (4/27-5/3) 12 13 12 12 10 592 (5/4-5/10) 13 12 13 13 10 613 (5/11-5/17) 12 18 13 12 11 664 (5/18-5/24) 13 10 12 13 12 60
Photos by Matt Klungle
Strait of Juan de Fuca
NAR
CPS
ADM
JDF
REL
REL
EST
EST
Survival Analysis mark-recapture (Program MARK)
Nisqually River
Green River
REL estuary NAR CPS ADM JDF
REL estuary JDFADMCPS
ᵩ1 ᵩ2
ᵩ1 ᵩ2 ᵩ3 ᵩ4
ᵩ4
ᵩ5
ᵩ5
FIXED DETECTION PROBABILITY MODEL VARIABLES
JDF = 68.5 % (Melnychuk)(V7/V9 comparison = 66.67%)
Population (genetic or habitat) River (release location) translocation (home or away) fork length release date
parameter relative weightrelease 0.64pop 0.26length 0.23translocation 0.22river 0.22
Survival Analysis - results Lowest AICc = migration segment x release date
PR-RM
RM-CPS/NAR
NAR-CPS
CPS-ADM
ADM-JDF
Green R
RM-JDF
Nisqua
lly R RM-JD
F
Sur
viva
l Pro
babi
lity
(%)
0
20
40
60
80
100Green and NisquallyGreen River onlyNisqually River only
Overall survivalestimates
Segment-specific survival estimates
Where is mortality most acute?
RM
RM
NAR
CPS
ADM
PR-R
M
RM
-NAR
/CPS
NAR
-CPS
CPS
-AD
M
ADM
-JD
F
% m
orta
lity/
km
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
Steelhead smolt travel time
CPS
NAR
ADMJDF
ESTUARY BEHAVIOR
NISQUALLY GREENRelease to RM distance 19 km 19 kmFirst - last estuary receiver distance 4 km 5 kmNumber of Estuary receivers 6 8Detection rate of lower receivers 100% 100%Distance to first marine line 19 km 19 kmDegree of urbanization Low High
Nisqually Estuary
Duwamish Estuary
Nisqually H Green A Nisqually A Green H
Estu
ary
resi
denc
e tim
e (d
ays)
0
10
20
30
40
50 Nisqually River Green River
ESTUARY RESIDENCE TIME
median = 14.2 h median = 14.6 h
Nisqually River Green River
Linearity = max track range distance travelled
Estuary residence time (days)
0 10 20 30 40 50
Line
arity
val
ue
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Not detected after estuaryDetected after estuary
Estuary residence time (days)
0 5 10 15 20 25
Line
arity
val
ue
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Not detected after estuaryDetected after estuary
6/10/2016 16
15813
5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 5/21 5/22 5/23 5/24 5/25
Tida
l hei
ght (
ft)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
RKM -1.4RKM 0.2 RKM 1.1 RKM 4.0
6/10/2016 17
Fish ID
1581
3
1590
9
1583
2
1585
9
1584
3
1587
4
1598
6
1598
1
1589
2
1581
4
1577
9
1582
9
Tida
l hei
ght (
ft)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
nearshorerkm 0-3rkm 4-5rkm 10+
Nisqually River Green River
Nisqually
Green
6/10/2016 18
Orca network sightings - 2015
January 2015December 2014
(Relevant) ORCA FACTS
• Resident Orcas eat salmon
• Transient Orcas eat marine mammals
• Transient orcas rarely come into Puget Sound
• 2015 anomalous behavior brought them into the sound for 3 months in the winter and 3 months in the spring
6/10/2016 1919
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Stee
lhea
d ea
rly m
arin
e su
rviv
al (%
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Num
ber o
f day
s w
ith tr
ansi
ent O
rca
sigh
tings
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
no survival estimates
year (July-June)
Jul-2
014
Aug-
2014
Sep-
2014
Oct
-201
4
Nov
-201
4
Dec
-201
4
Jan-
2015
Feb-
2015
Mar
-201
5
Apr-2
015
May
-201
5
Jun-
2015
Day
s w
ith O
rca
sigh
tings
in S
outh
Pug
et S
ound
0
5
10
15
20
25
Conclusions
Puget Sound (RM-JDF) survival probabilities are low (Green – 17%, Nisqually – 6%) –similar to previously calculated Puget Sound estimates
Release date was the only important model variable; distance was the most important factor affecting early marine survival
Smolts from both rivers took a similar amount of time from release to the JDF Strait (< 2 weeks)
Highest mortality rates occurred in the first marine segment for both populations
Measures of behavior in the estuary may help identify some causes of mortality
Patterns in survival over multiple years can help us understand predator-prey interactions and the impact of anomalies
AcknowledgementsSteelhead Advisory Group to the SSMSP
LLTK: Michael Schmidt, Iris Kemp
WDFW: Joe Anderson, Pete Topping, Matt Klungle, Chris Frazier
Green River Trap Crew (Bob Green & Matt Pollack)
Nisqually Trap Crew (Devin West, Justin Miller, & Lars Swartling)
Nisqually Tribe: Chris Ellings, Sayre Hodgson, Jed Moore, Walker Duvall
Muckleshoot Tribe: Ava Fuller, Eric Warner, Sean Hildebrandt
Squaxin Tribe: Scott Steltzner
NWFSC: Anna Kagley, Heather Jackson, Rob Endicott, Jose Reyes- Tomassini, Jeff Atkins
Port of Seattle: George Blomberg, Mick Schultz
UW: Tom Quinn, Fred Goetz
FUNDING: WDFW and NOAA NWFSC
Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Upper --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> DistribLower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower
15909
5/9 5/10 5/11 5/12 5/13 5/14 5/15 5/16 5/17
Tida
l hei
ght (
ft)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
RKM -1.4RKM 0.2RKM 1.1RKM 4.0
Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> DistribLower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower -->Nisqually --> Animal Lower
15832
5/4 5/6 5/8 5/10 5/12 5/14 5/16
Tida
l hei
ght (
ft)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
RKM -1.4 RKM 0.2RKM 1.1 RKM 4.0
I5 Upper --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Anderson --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Anderson
15859
5/6 5/10 5/14 5/18 5/22 5/26 5/30
Tida
l hei
ght (
ft)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
RKM -2.0RKM -1.4 RKM 0.2RKM 1.1RKM 4.0
5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Nisqually --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> DistribLower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> DistribLower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> I5 Lower --> I5 Upper --> I5 Lower --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> Animal Upper --> Animal Lower --> Animal Upper --> Distrib Lower --> I5 Lower --> Animal Lower
15813
5/17 5/18 5/19 5/20 5/21 5/22 5/23 5/24 5/25
Tida
l hei
ght (
ft)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
RKM -1.4RKM 0.2 RKM 1.1 RKM 4.0
Length (mm) Weight (g) age (% age‐1) age (% age‐2)
Green Home 182.0 ± 2.0 56.3 ± 2.0 49% 51%
Green Away 178.8 ± 1.8 52.6 ± 1.7 40% 53%
Nisqually Home 207.2 ± 2.8 84.8 ± 3.8 18% 72%
Nisqually Away 207.7 ± 3.6 86.9 ± 4.7 18% 77%
Size and age at tagging
Migration timing (by segment)
REL-RM RM-NAR NAR-CPS CPS-ADM ADM-JDF
Trav
el ti
me
(day
s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Nisqually H Green A
REL-RM RM-CPS CPS-ADM ADM-JDF
Nisqually A Green H
Nisqually River Green River
Nisqually River
REL-RM RM-NAR NAR-CPS CPS-ADM ADM-JDF
trave
l rat
e (k
m/d
)
0
10
20
30
40Green A Nisqually H
Green River
REL-RM RM-CPS CPS-ADM ADM-JDF0
10
20
30
40Green HNisqually A
H and W
Release Date
Apr 14 Apr 28 May 12 May 26 Jun 09 Jun 23
Num
ber o
f sm
olts
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
2x105
4x105
6x105
8x105
106
1x106
1x106
Not detected at JDFDetected at JDF70-75% of hatchery released sthd