Download - Deconstructing the Future
“Deconstructing the Future”
Karl Albrecht
World Future Society
World Future 2014July 12, 2014
Orlando
Seeing Beyond“Magic Wand” Predictions
The “Oh-S***” Future
Whose “Future” Do You Believe?The “Gee-Whiz” Future
The Turning Point?
“Civilization is more and more a race between educationand catastrophe.”
~ H.G. Wells, 1902
Do Futurists Drink Too Much Coffee?
“Magic Wand” Predictions
About That OverpopulationProblem
Famous “Bad Calls”
“Forget it, Louis -no Civil War picturehas evermade a nickel.”- Irving Thalberg,business Adviserto Louis B. Mayer,who turned down“Gone With the Wind,” 1937
GONEwith theWIND
Famous “Bad Calls”
“Robert Goddard’stheories aboutspace travelare too far-fetchedeven to beconsidered.”- Scientific AmericanMagazine, 1940
Famous “Bad Calls”
“We will bury you.And you capitalistswill sell us the shovelsto do it with.”- Nikita Khrushchev,Premier of USSR, 1962
Famous “Bad Calls”
“I see no reasonwhy anyonewould needa computerin their home.”- Ken Olsen, founder ofDigital Equipment Corp.,1977
“We stand on the threshold of rocket mail”
What’s the Next “Rocket Mail”?
Computersto replacefuturists by2025
The Final Prediction?
How Do Futurists Think?
Two Thinking “Systems”
“System 1”:Reflexive
“System 2”:Reflective
“System 2” Thinking: What If . . .?
“System 2” Thinking: a Strategy Exercise
• 5 coins, each touching 2 neighbors.• Players alternate taking way coins.• Each player can take either 1 coin, or 2 if they’re touching each other.• Cannot disturb the other coins.• Winner is the one who takes the last coin (or coins).• What strategy will always win the game?
1
2
34
5
There Will Always be New Ideas
Square Watermelons?
Low-budget Funerals?
Wine Sling?
Musical Taser?
New Fashions?
The Digital Outhouse?
Underwater Hotels?
Space Tourism?
Electronic Tombstones?
Customer
Competitor
Economic
Techno-logical
Social
Political
Legal
Geo-physical
The Strategic Radar Model for Business
The Structured Inquiry Method
1. Map out the “Strategic Context”
2. Discover the Drivers
3. Build the Road Map
Starts with Asking a “Big Question.”
Then ...
1. Mind Mapping: The “Strategic Context”
2. Affinity Diagramming: The “Drivers”
DRIVER 4DRIVER 3DRIVER 2DRIVER 1
3. Card Planning: The “Roadmap”
Time Line
Better Questions => Better Predictions
A Useful Prediction Is …
• Anchored in a Context
• Time-bound [“… by the year 20xx”]
• Confidence-Rated [“+/- 5 years”] [“Conf. = 90%”]
• Testable [observable criteria…]
New Thinking for a New World
“Everything should be made as simple as possible – but not simpler.”
~ Albert Einstein
Books
Visit WFS Bookstore
Order & pay; provide shipping address
Will be shipped to you (no shipping cost)
Your Strategic Radar The Northbound Train
