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CURRENT PERSPECTIVES ON FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES
Fusion Power Associates 25th Anniversary Meeting and Symposium
December 13, 2004
John Sheffield
Joint Institute for Energy and Environment
University of Tennessee
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FOSSIL FUELS INCLUDE
• Coal• Lignite• Peat• Conventional Oil• Heavy Oil, Oil Sands, and Shale Oil• Gas and Natural Gas Liquids• Methane Hydrates
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Global Hydrocarbon Reserves and Resources in GtC
Consumption Reserve Resource1860-1998 1998
Resource
Base
Addit'l
Occur.
97 2.7 120 120 240
Oil
Convent'lUnconvent'l 6 0.2 120 320 440 1200
36 1.2 90 170 260 12200
Gas
Convent'lUnconvent'l 1 -- 140 530 670 12200
Coal 155 2.4 530 4620 5150 3600
TOTAL 295 6.5 1000 5760 6760 17000
Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1996; Nakicenovic, Grubler and McDonald, 1998;WEC 1998;Masters et al., 1994; Rogner et al., 2000.
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FOSSIL FUELS ARE INTERCHANGEABLE
• All fossil fuels may be both gasified and converted to liquids.
• Consequently, all of the fossil resources should be included when we consider availability for a particular purpose e.g. transportation or electricity production.
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RUNNING OUT OF AND INTO OIL
• David Greene et al (ORNL and U. Tennessee) have analyzed global oil depletion up to 2050 for a number of scenarios. http://wwwcta.ornl.gov/cta/Publications/Publications_2003.html
• They consider both conventional and unconventional oil resources. 1 Gtoe = 7.33 billion barrels.
• ROW conventional oil production may peak in 2010 - 2030. Including OPEC around 2030 - 2050. To meet demand, the difference will be made up from unconventional oil
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CONCLUSIONS OF GREENE’S PAPER
• Present trends imply ROW conventional oil peak in period 2010 - 2030.
• Transition to unconventional oil may be rapid: 7-9% growth.
• First suppliers from Venezuela, Canada, Russia.• Vast quantities of shale oil (or coal, NG) may be
needed before 2050 - notably in high demand case.
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COAL AND NATURAL GAS
• From talk by Rita Bajura (NETL) at the NRL - Energy Options for the Future meeting www.
• World recoverable coal reserves 1,083 billion tons - 210 -year supply at current use.
• Coal is mainly used for electricity production - 92% in U.S. and 66% in the World.
• Issues of mine safety and environmental impact.
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ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES FOR COAL USE
• DOE’s goals: • Improved efficiency
• NOx and SOx removal
• Mercury removal
• CO2 sequestration.
• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) is a promising pathway to “Zero-Emission” Plants
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NATURAL GAS
• World proven natural gas reserves 5,500 Tcf - 62-year supply at current use rates (Hydrates?).
• Cleanest fossil fuel.• Rapid rate of increase in use.• Price is volatile.• In U.S. 24% for electricity, 32% in industry, and
44% other.• In World 36% electricity, 23% industry, and 41%
other.
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CONCLUSIONS
• There is a lot of fossil fuel. Needed investment an issue.
• Uncertainty in total recoverable amount - issue of unit cost.
• Likely they will be major part of U.S. and Global energy mix for at least the next 50years.
• Uneven distribution and pollution are major problems.
– Carbon sequestration at scale envisioned is still a young technology
– Near-zero emission technologies (NOx, SOx, CO2, Hg) will be necessary to secure long-term future for coal.