Covering Your Local Economy: What's Happening with Housing
Marilyn Geewax NPR Senior Business Editor
In 2013 …
What We Will Explore Today
• Demand Is Rising • But There Are Big Regional Differences • Foreclosures Are Very Uneven • Real Estate Is Hyperlocal
Housing Sector Spins Off Jobs for Landscapers, Furniture Stores, Etc.
Things Are Finally Improving
Keep In Mind: You Might Be Completely Wrong
The slowdown in the housing sector “is a concern, but at this point we don't see it as being a broad financial concern or a major factor in assessing the course of the economy.” -- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaking to the House in February 2007.
Even Though You Never Really Can Predict – We Have
Reason For Optimism Because of Jobs
The Jobs Outlook Is Improving
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
Confidence Plunged Along With GDP, But It's Smoothing Out
Bureau of Economic Analysis data
Good Sign – Fewer Vacancies
A Very Good Sign
New-Home Sales Up Sharply from the Same Time Last Year
But Huge Regional Differences
• North Dakota is booming, so home prices have shot from an average of $130,000 in 2011 to $180,000 now - Zillow Oil rig in Williston, N.D., by Flickr user
lindsey gee
Many Areas Are Still In Poor Shape • Nevada is still struggling to bring back
jobs, so home prices remain depressed.
• In 2008, the average house was $211,000. Now $153,000, according to Zillow Photo by Flickr user Thomas Hawk
Even Though You Never Really Can Predict – We Have
Reason For Pessimism Because of Aging Boomers
and Debt Overhang
As Boomers Downsize, Who Will Buy Their Houses?
As Student Debt Grows,
Less Money For Mortgages
Magic Wand Solutions
• Wipe out student debt
• Encourage immigration
• Raze vacant houses
• Create about 12 million jobs
• Give workers raises
To Understand Your Local Market, Look At These Factors
Economic Fundamentals: Are Jobs Growing? 1. How Many Foreclosures Still On the Market?
What's the Backlog? 2. Are Investors Buying Houses?
Local Housing Data Can Be Found
at:
http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=1406
Questions? Thanks for coming!
Marilyn Geewax
NPR
Twitter: @geewaxnpr
http:/bit.ly/XXX - SUB THIS for workshop slides, handouts
Photo by Flickr user Xurble
