Cosmic Rays, Global Warming
and the Origin of life.
Sir Arnold Wolfendale FRS, 14th Astronomer Royal.
Topics to be covered.
1. Low Cloud Cover and theCR correlations.
2. Lightning.
3. Origin of life.
Low cloud cover anomalies and CR intensity(Huancayo) – Svensmark (2007)
There is a correlation – in time – between ‘cloud cover’, at low altitudes, and ‘cosmic ray intensity’.
Is it a case of ‘cause and effect’?
Cosmic ray ionization
Charged cosmic rays produce
ionization.
Although unlikely, CR ions help the
growth of cloud nuclei by attaching to
aerosols.
Check, first, by examining the cloud
cover – CR correlation over the earth.
Earth’s magnetic field causes a
variation of CR intensity over the
surface of the earth.
Correlate with CR intensity or sun-
spot number.
Ions as condensation centres for clouds ?
But
Supersaturations in atmosphere far too low for ions to be at an advantage. Aerosols (salt particles, dust, industrial emissions…) dominate.Sizes 10-1(10±2).~~
CR produce ~ 3 ion pairs cm-3s-1 in the lower atmosphere. Lifetime is ~ 50sec, so ~ 150cm-3.Clouds have ~ 100 droplets cm-3 so a link would appear to be obvious.
Evidence from radioactive ‘events’
Chernobyl
~~
~
April 26, 1986 2 Mt of fall-out.No increase in cloud cover.(ions cloud droplets) 3%
Nuclear Bomb Tests
E.g. BRAVO -Bikini Atoll, March1,1954.~ 15 Mtradioactive particles,10 -100
300 miles from Ground Zero, dose rate ~ 100 Rh-1, after 4 days. Yields 5.107 ions cm-1s-1
Averaging over space and time and allowing for size distribution yields.
10-4<~
Radon
Radon is an important contributor to atmospheric ionization over land.
Indian ‘hot spots’, particularly in the SW.
Scans of low CC over two regions show no excess and
25%<~
Dorman’s rigidity map
Magnitude of the CC modulation vs. VRCO
1. Cosmic Rays
a. LCC directly (difficult)
b. Effect on atmospheric transparency – ht. ~10km (aerosols.) Kudryavstevetal,(2005)
c. Electrical effects. CR affect the ‘global atmospheric circuit’ (Tinsley, Harrison, Rycroft…). Cloud edges?
Possible explanations for the correlations – i.e. the 11 – year
cycle.
Global mean Surface Temperature:
peak to peak 0.07oc for change in radiation of 0.24Wm-2
Mt. Pinatubo Volcano (1991)
Temperature reduction 0.8 deg C. year
Change in radiation of 3.6 Wm-2 year
A similar ratio (but energies very different):
Pinatubo 1016J; oceanic change 2.1022J, - a factor of 1 million.
Also problems with 22y/11y conversion and geographical distribution of temperature change for 11-y cycle.
2. Solar Irradiance
The ‘atmosphere’
Tentative Conclusions
3. Solar irradiance variations probably cause the solar cycle (11-year) oscillation.
2. CR contribution to slow increaseof mean global temperature overlast 35 years < 1%.~
~
1. CR contribution to 11-year cyclevariability of mean globaltemperature < 15%.
Summary for decadal averages
“Man made Global Warming”
“Man made Global Warming”
Global and continental temperature change
Man –made
Response
Imbalance
Total
Natural
Aerosols
Ozone
CO2
F2: Percentage cloud changefor a 2% change in CR intensity
Possible ‘natural causes’ of Global Warming
1. Cosmic Rays
2. Solar Effects
3. Milankovich Effects
4. Geothermal Changes
5. Volcanoes
6. Meteoritic and Cometary Dust
7.Oceanic Heat Re-distribution
8. Past ‘random’ changes. (10,000 y ago)
Lightning
Miller (1953) – and Miller & Urey
water, methane,ammonia, etc.(the ‘pre-biotic soup’)
Amino-acidsRNAMonomers
SNR Model : A.D. Erlykin & AWW (2001)
On average, every million years,
ICR(>1016eV) up by ~ 105 for ~
30,000 years.
Probably enough to cause a
sufficiently large frequency of
lightning discharges to cause
production of RNA, monomers,
etc. in the window : 4.5 – 3.5 By BP.
After Parman (2009)
More recently – and more
probably – the generation
of NOX by lightning will
have had relevance to
evolution.
NOX is welcome to plants
and bad for humans.