Contemporary Italian Contemporary Italian History and GeographyHistory and GeographyContemporary Italian Contemporary Italian
History and GeographyHistory and Geography
Villanova Exchange and Master’s CourseVillanova Exchange and Master’s Course
Prof. Peter CullenProf. Peter Cullen
Spring 2009Spring 2009
Villanova Exchange and Master’s CourseVillanova Exchange and Master’s Course
Prof. Peter CullenProf. Peter Cullen
Spring 2009Spring 2009
Italy Compared to World Manufacturing Italy Compared to World Manufacturing OutputOutput
European Infrastructure and European Infrastructure and Demography 1870Demography 1870
Italy at Unification, 1866-1870Italy at Unification, 1866-1870
Alpine Passes opened after unificationAlpine Passes opened after unification
Colonial Empires 1850-1945Colonial Empires 1850-1945
Consumption per Area in 1885 (gr/day)Consumption per Area in 1885 (gr/day)
North Centre South
Bread 656 760 1029
Pasta 5.8 18.4 29.0
Corn Flour 21.8 18.6 -
Rice 19.7 4.6 1.7
Fresh Meat 11.1 10.7 7.6
Salted Meat 2.4 2.3 1.7
Cheese 3.0 5.0 4.6
Milk (Lt) 0.1 0.03 0.04
Vegetables 22.7 18.3 35.7
Wine (Lt) 0.44 0.74 0.81
Urban Landscape in 1900: Salt and Urban Landscape in 1900: Salt and Tabacco Monopolies, The BarTabacco Monopolies, The Bar
Italy in WWIItaly in WWI
• Entered in 1915 after pressure from UK and France• Motive – to capture or receive Trento, Trieste, and Istria,
Dalmatia, and some territories in Turkey (promised by UK and France)
• They fought against the Austro-Hungarians in the Alps
Consequences:• 600,000 killed• Post-war economic collapse with high inflation and
unemployment• Italy only received Trento, Trieste, and Istria – considered a
“mutilated victory”
The Italian Campaign – Fighting in the The Italian Campaign – Fighting in the AlpsAlps
• Altitude• Temperature• Terrain• Semi-Permanent winter war• Little movement – intense
labour
The Italian Campaign in the North 1915 - The Italian Campaign in the North 1915 - 19171917
The Italian Campaign at the End of the The Italian Campaign at the End of the War - 1918War - 1918
Imperial Interests in North Africa - WWIImperial Interests in North Africa - WWI
FascismFascism
• 1921, Bourgeois socialist movementwithout ties to industry or agricultureprone to violent conflict with radical socialists
• 1921 – Mussolini’s attempt to makea pact with the socialists fails (internally)
The March on Rome 26-30/10/1922 – Fascists under Mussolini take controlprompted by weak central government under Luigi Facta and a general strike called by the socialists – Mussolini seizes the moment for Fascist squads to break the strikeVittorio Emmanuele “invites” the Fascists to Rome by refusing to sign a decree supressing their “march” by force (this receives support from England and the US as an anti-communist solution. The New York Times called Mussolini “Garibaldi in a Black Shirt”)
Facsism and the Economy 1922-1943Facsism and the Economy 1922-1943
• Monetary policy is orthodox – based on gold standard and tending to increase liquidity = creates inflation
• Fiscal policy 1° emphasises balanced budget then increases public spending as central authority increases
• The Fascist govt. Must repay war debt to US and UK and reached a repayment accord in 1925 of nominal favour but relative severity (until which no FDI)
• April, 1926 – the Lira tanks but Mussolini is able to scale back prices and wages – without great difficulty. Benefits of dictatorship
• 1927-28 = relative currency stability but industry is fragmented and artisanal:
Facsism and the Economy 1922-1943Facsism and the Economy 1922-1943
...and the 1929 Stock Market Crash
• Hits gold standard economies hard
• Mussolini – like the US etc. Manages to save the economy through public spending (war in Ethiopia) and economic development projects
• More money printed = inflation = 10/1936 Italy abandons the gold standard
• Price and wage discipline keeps the economy afloat internally• WWII allows massive public spending (also on industrial
goods)
Wages in the Fascist PeriodWages in the Fascist Period
WAGES (index 1913 = 100 at constant prices)
total private consumption IV cat . XII cat.per capita day labour factories rail state emp. state emp.
______________________________________________________________________________
1923 115 129 133 145 67 94
1925 116 113 126 135 75 80
1927 118 123 125 140 75 78
1929 122 130 110 155 85 80
1931 114 132 110 162 109 95
1934 115 135 119 160 114 106
1936 112 125 105 158 103 99
1938 120 120 106 153 100 95
1941 111 nd nd nd 86 95
Fascism and Foreign AffairsFascism and Foreign Affairs
• Fascism had significant support in the UK and the US as a way of bringing order to fragmented post-WWI Italian politics and economy(until 1929)
• Mussolini wanted Germany to guarantee Italian border with Austria and signed the Kellog-Briand Pact (1928) of non-agression in Europe – hinted at war with France over borders as long as Austria remained a buffer with Germany
Fascism and Foreign AffairsFascism and Foreign Affairs
• Mussolini held UK in high regard, initially. Churchill called him “the greatest legislator alive” after a visit in 1927.
• Italy’s foreign policy was to be “the weight that tips the balance” (Foreign Minister Grandi – 1931)
• 1935 war with Ethiopia was a way to leave the “gold block” and excercise direct govt. control over trade through ministerial licences
Fascism and Foreign Affairs – Build up to Fascism and Foreign Affairs – Build up to WarWar
• 1932 – Mussolini assumes personal control over the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• 1933 – he pushes for a “Pact of Four” between UK, France, Italy and Germany – taking for granted Grandi’s “weight that tips...” policy without having the real economic or military weight needed. Only UK signs
• 1934 – after a Nazi coup attempt in Vienna – Mussolini mobilised 4 divisions on the north-east border to thwart German expansion
Fascism and Foreign Affairs – Build up to War
• 5/10/1935 – Italian troops enter Ethiopia – upsetting African colonial powers. UK sends the fleet and Mussolini sends 3 divisions to the border with Egypt.
• Diplomatically resolved – Italy is allowed use of the Suez – but economic sanctions are imposed by the League of Nations on exports and oil/weapons imports
• 1936 – Mussolini sends 60,000 troops to Spain to support Franco
Fascism and the Build-up to War – Fascism and the Build-up to War – Relations with GermanyRelations with Germany
• 1936 – Mussolini cedes the Foreign Ministry to Galeazzo Ciano
• The Spanish Civil War is a meeting point for Hitler and Mussolini
• 24° Oct. 1936 – Ciano and his counterpart Neurath form the Rome-Berlin axis to counter bolshevism – inviting all European countries to participate – this indicates a return to German influence in the East
• 1938 – Anschluss with Austria must be acceptedHitler guarantees Italian influence in the Med. to cover the southern theatre in case of war withUK and France
Fascism and the Build-up to War – Fascism and the Build-up to War – Relations with GermanyRelations with Germany
• German ministers court Italy in 1937-38
• 1937 status quo in Med = Gentlemen’s agreementwith the UK
• 29/09/1938 Munich meeting – Hitler states his confidence that Italy will stay by Germany in any eventuality – Mussolini attempts neutrality on Sudetenland
• 22/05/1939 – Italy and Germanysign the Pact of Steel, binding militaryalliance – Vittorio Emanuele IIIis not consulted
Italy in the Mediterranean: WWIIItaly in the Mediterranean: WWII
• 09/1939 – Ciano forwards to Hitler logistical reasons Italy cannot enter the war
• The Mediterranean secures logistics for land war in the surrounding theatres. Italy’s primary objective was to resolve border disputes with France
• 1940 – Italy enters the war on June 10 1940 – sending troops to France(guaranteeing a place at peace talks and assuaging German reprisal for non-intervention)
• June 11 Italy lays naval siege to the port of Malta (under British Control) this was a naval and air battle
• To support the Italian Air effort, and German advance in North Africa – the Luftwaffe sent a bomber wing to Sicily
• UK reinforces by aircraft carrier and by 1942 defended the island with modern Spitfire aircraft – Gibraltar and Suez are in British hands
• Malta later offered air cover for shipping and the amphibious invasion of Sicily
Italy in the Mediterranean: InvasionItaly in the Mediterranean: Invasion
• July 9 1943 –US 7° army and British 8° army invade Sicily
• Idea was to take Sicily for strategic bombing and pressure Mussolini’s hold on the country. VE III had been alienated (also self alienated) from the war effort.
• Sicily would act as a staging ground for land invasion of the peninsula – but this was planned only after the invasion of Sicily. (9/9/1943 – Salerno; 22/01/1944 – Anzio).
Italy in the Mediterranean: Invasion
• 24-25 July, ’43 – The General Council (with Grandi and Ciano) voted to limit Mussolini’s power.
• 25/07 Vittorio Emanuele nominated Pietro Badoglio as President of the Council – VE takes command of the Army and has the Carabinieri arrest Mussolini.
• 8/09/1943 – Badoglio signed an armistice with the allies AFTER VE had promised Hitler that Italy would not abandon the Axis.
• Hitler turns his troops against the Italian army and occupies the peninsula as far south as Naples.
Italy in the Mediterranean: InvasionItaly in the Mediterranean: Invasion Badoglio and General Secretary Prunas of the Southern Kingdom
look to Stalin for recognition of legitimacy as a national government – ’43 and ’44.
It was the British VIII army, however, that actually occupied the territory on the Adriatic side of the peninsula and guaranteed the removal of the Germans.
29/09/1943The Anglo-American forces, in the process of forming a joint staff
in preparation for the invasion of France, forced the Southern Kingdom into a harsh armistice, without granting them the position of ally.
Badoglio attempts to declare war against Germany, but the declaration is “returned to sender”.
The southern kingdom is treated as a pacified enemy.
Italy in the Mediterranean: RecognitionItaly in the Mediterranean: Recognition
Hitler’s paratroopers broke Mussolini out of prison (Sept 12 ’43).
– Stalin offered support to Italian communist partisans and opened formal diplomatic relations (14/03/1944) with Prunas in order to return former PCI secretary Palmiro Togliatti –
but in an interview with Togliatti, Stalin forbids “revolution” so as not to upset his allies –
rather, he supports “ a long slow march towards theinstitutions”.
This has lasting effect on the way communism would be supported in this country.
Italy in the Mediterranean: Recognition
The southern kingdom was an arena pulled in three different directions:
Toward Russian interests through Prunas and Togliatti
Toward British interests through Badoglio (Churchill’s Britain)
Toward American interests through formal diplomatic recognition of relations on 26/10/1944 (Gothic line had fallen) – Germans in orderly retreat to the North.
Communism Monarchy Free-market Democracy
ITALYITALY
The Geography of the Allied Advance in The Geography of the Allied Advance in WWIIWWII
The Gothic Line 1944The Gothic Line 1944
Italy in the Mediterranean: GovernmentItaly in the Mediterranean: Government
Nazi Germany falls in May 1945.
In Italy, the allies ask the partisans to come out of hiding and enter talks about reconstructing the country and the government.
Incorporation rather than exclusion.
Three parties are formed:PCI – international communismSocialists – a “third path” between communism and capitalismThe Christian Democrats – international catholicism
All anti-fascist – embarked on a programme of “de-nationalisation” (in the fascist sense) of the country.
Export Growth 1820-1992Export Growth 1820-1992
Export Volume Index
(1913 = 100)
Territory1820 1870 1913 1950 1992
UK 3 31 100 100 494
Germany 4 18 100 35 1071
France 4 31 100 149 2090
Italy 7 39 100 126 3853
Russia - - 100 97 612
USA 1 13 100 225 2350
Japan - 3 100 210 17,784
World 3 24 100 128 1602
Average Annual GrowthAverage Annual Growth
1820-1870 1870-1913 1913-1950 1950-1992
UK 4.6 2.7 0.0 3.8
Germany 3.0 3.8 -1.3 8.1
France 3.9 2.7 1.1 6.3
Italy 3.4 2.1 0.6 8.1
Russia - - -0.1 4.3
USA 5.1 4.7 2.2 5.6
Japan - 8.1 2.010.6
World 4.2 3.3 0.7 6.0
European Per Capita GDP Growth: 1820-European Per Capita GDP Growth: 1820-19921992
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1820-1870 1870-1913 1913-1950 1950-1973 1973-1992
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Italy
UK
Spain
Russia
USA
Japan
Industrial Production of Central/Northern Italy 1440-1990 (x 1 million)
1
1000
1000000
1000000000
Ind. Prod.Price Ind.
Price-Production Index 1440-1990Price-Production Index 1440-1990
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
P-P index
Per-capita Production 1440-1990
9,76 11,2 8,62 6,92 9,09 15,5935,31 47,63
71,11
255,83
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Prod/ Capita
Post-War Italy: ReconstructionPost-War Italy: Reconstruction • The Referendum on the Republic (June 2 1946)
total votes: pro-republic pro-monarchy12,700,000 (54%) 10,700,000 (46%)
Regional votes (%):Venice-tridentina 85 15 Cities and towns: R MEmilia 77 23 Turin 60 40Umbria 71.9 28.1 Rome 46 54Tuscany 71.6 28.4 Ravenna 91.2 8.8Marche 70.1 29.9 Cesena 91.3 8.7Liguria 69 31 Carrara 88.1 11.9Lombardy 64.1 35.9 Livorno 80.5 19.5Val D’Aosta 63.5 36.5 Messina 14.6 85.4Veneto 59.3 40.7 Palermo 15.8 84.2Piedmont 57.1 42.9 Catania 18.2 81.4Lazio 48.6 51.4 Naples 20.1 79.9Abruzzi 43.1 56.9 Bari 25.2 56.2Lucania 40.6 59.4Calabria 39.7 60.3Sardinia 39.1 60.9Sicily 35.3 64.7Apulia 32.7 67.3Campania 23.5 76.5
ERPERP
• Developed by Sec. of StateDeveloped by Sec. of State
George MarshallGeorge Marshall• Active July 1947 – July 1951Active July 1947 – July 1951• 13 billion USD in economic and13 billion USD in economic and
technical assitance to countriestechnical assitance to countries
joining the EECo-op groupjoining the EECo-op group• Offered to Soviets – rejectedOffered to Soviets – rejected
as Dollar Imperialismas Dollar Imperialism
• Proposed by Joint Chiefs of Staff to contain Proposed by Joint Chiefs of Staff to contain communismcommunism
Agricultural Production 1861-1950Agricultural Production 1861-1950
• The South: Latifundia – agricultural production based on large, extensive land ownership worked by day labourers and employees/bondsmen who owed loyalty to the landowner. Labourers lived in agro-towns. Clientage relationships dominate.
• Latifundia Reform 1882-1890 parcel out land to small holders/day labourers
• Pre-mechanical grain economy = low productivityhigh birth ratescomplemented by sheepseasonal productivity
• 1861-1907: labourer salaries reduced due to presence of grain threshers
• 1882-1890 reforms failed because large landowners were too influential in government: 1.5 million Sicilians emigrated to US, Canada, S. America between 1876 and 1925.
Agricultural Production 1861-1950Agricultural Production 1861-1950
• The Centre and North: Largely seft-sufficient markets based on mixed cultivation produced in the mezzadria system – peasant family leases the podere from the landlord (1 year renewable) and pays rent in kind at a rate of 50% of harvests.
Small-medium farmsfamily operated5-6 people per family
• Mixed agriculture = intense labour and high yield/hectare• Centre and North have access to oxen = smaller units can work
more land.
• North/South divide – in Southern Europe raising 1 ox requires +- 10-12 hectares. In northern Europe only 2-3 hectares needed.
Population of Italy 1771-1991 (x1000)Population of Italy 1771-1991 (x1000)
05000
100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000550006000065000
pop.x100
The 1950 Land ReformThe 1950 Land Reform
700,000 hectares
taken from 2805 large
landowners and
assigned to 109,000
families (of small
landholders and
landless peasants)
1950-1975 = % drop in:
Poderi 22.4
Quote 14.3
Lotti 25.6
Internal Migration: 1950-1970Internal Migration: 1950-1970
= 15,000 inhabitants
Population Resident by Class of Population Resident by Class of Demographic ConcentrationDemographic Concentration
Demographic class
(urban concentration in %)
1931 1936 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991< 20,000
pop. 64.3 63.0 58.7 53.0 47.6 46.6 47.4
20,000-
250,000
pop. 23.5 23.8 25.0 27.7 31.7 33.9 35.3
>250,000
pop. 12.2 13.2 16.3 19.3 20.7 19.5 17.3
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Expansion of Turin - Roman Period to Expansion of Turin - Roman Period to 19711971
Poor but BeautifulPoor but Beautiful
• Sofia Loren teaches Italian working class women to be beautiful.
Sofia Villani Scicolone (Rome: 1934)(“L’oro di Napoli” – 1954 by De Sica)
little make-upauthenticaccessible
= ?
The Economic Miracle 1950-1975The Economic Miracle 1950-1975
• Transportation revolution: the FIAT 500
allowed commuting in rural/provincial areas
inexpensive
reliable
efficient
• Transportation revolution: the Piaggio Vespa
individual transport
An urban solution
Land Use in Italy 1972Land Use in Italy 1972
Distribution of Labour 1961-1981Distribution of Labour 1961-1981
Distribution of Labour 1861-2003Distribution of Labour 1861-2003
Ag. Ind. Serv.
% LF %GDP %LF %GDP %LF %GDP
1861 69.7 54.4 18.1 18.7 12.2 26.9
1871 67.5 54.4 19.2 16.7 13.3 31.4
1881 61.8 51.9 20.5 16.7 17.7 31.4
1911 59.1 42.7 23.6 23.2 17.3 34.1
1938 52.0 26.5 25.6 30.5 22.4 43.0
2003 05.0 02.3 32.0 29.4 63.0 68.3
There are eroding ties between demography and labour productivity = why?
Population of Italy 1972Population of Italy 1972
Cities act as centres of Cities act as centres of demographic systems demographic systems that include other citiesthat include other cities
Italian Rail Network 2007Italian Rail Network 2007
Regional Industrial Production 1972Regional Industrial Production 1972
Global Distribution of Micro, Small, and Global Distribution of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises per 1000 PeopleMedium Enterprises per 1000 People
World Transnational Parent Company World Transnational Parent Company Presence 1993-2005Presence 1993-2005
Scale of Multinational CorporationsScale of Multinational Corporationsa -1990 - 2005, b -Q3 2006a -1990 - 2005, b -Q3 2006
a b
FIAT: The Agnelli Empire (reported 2006)
DicembreDicembre
G. Agnelli and Co.G. Agnelli and Co.
IFIIFI
IFILIFIL
FIAT GroupFIAT Group
““Cascaded Cascaded CompaniesCompanies
A sharesA shares
B sharesB shares31.2% of votes31.2% of votes
53% of votes*53% of votes*
65% of votes65% of votes
30.3% of votes30.3% of votes
3% of votes3% of votes
*% of extraordinary meeting *% of extraordinary meeting votes – they hold all votes votes – they hold all votes otherwiseotherwise
1968-2007 From Industry to Services1968-2007 From Industry to Services
The “Anni di Piombo” – political parties must manage a politicised youth.
Italy: the population, like in the UK, US, France and Germany – is young and becoming university educated.
There is much tension between extreme right and extreme left groups.
Economic growth is fast – prompting youth to push for faster social change
Violence was used by both Left and Right wing groups – with corrupt government officials tending to support the Right
Extremism 1968-1987Extremism 1968-1987
• 1960’s the Italian Socialist Party is formally recognised in Parliament and immediately contrasts the traditional Democratic Christian Party (DC)
• Feb. 1968 – the Tet offensive spurs radical communism among youth
translating into a vehement political need for improving the standards of factory workers in Europe and Italy.
Extremism 1968-1987Extremism 1968-1987
PCI influenced groups radicalise (mainly youth) and form splinter extra-parlimentary groups: Lotta Continua, Potere operaio, Avanguardia operaia – workers rights become the cause of the student generation
By 1970 the istituzione delle regioni confer political power to new regional governments
AUTUNNO CALDO – Fall 1969 “New Left” members occupy the FIAT factory in Milan
Extremism 1968-1987Extremism 1968-1987
• December 1969 – 4 bombs struck the Altare della Patria and the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in Rome, and the Banca Commerciale and Banca Nazionale dell’Agricola in Milan.
• The police arrested 4000 left wing extremists and party associates – causing hot protest among students
• One of the young people arrested – anarchist Giuseppe Pinelli “fell” out of a window while in prison and died. Lotta Continua accused police officer Luigi Calabresi of murdering him.
Extremism 1968-1987Extremism 1968-1987
• Lotta Continua accused extreme right wing groups of the bombings and using support within the police forces to blame the Left – court procedings in the 1980’s proved them right.
• December 1970 – Junio Valerio Borghese ex Colonel of the X°MAS led (as a figurehead) a fascist coup plot – which was diffused at the beginning of 1971
Extremism 1968 - 1987Extremism 1968 - 1987
• Summer 1971 – Richard Nixon suspends the “convertability” of the US $ into gold – removing the $ from the gold exchange standard. (managing US debt was a form of managing the balance of payments in most of the non-Soviet world)
• May 17, 1972 – Calabresi is assassinated in Milan – the Carabinieri attempt to blame Lotta Continua but in 1974 – two neo-fascist activists are indicted. This is the 1° political assassination of the 1970’s
Extremism 1968-1987Extremism 1968-1987
• 1972 – Peteano – 3 Carabinieri killed in a bomb attack. Lotta Continua is blamed and some of its members are arrested. In the 1980s it was discovered that the bomb was made with military C-4 explosive, and a neo-fascist confessed.
• 1972 – 1974 sees a series of these right wing de-stabilising bombings.
Extremism 1968 - 1987Extremism 1968 - 1987
• July 1974 – another attempt at Neo-Fascist coup
Protagonist Count Edgardo Sogno wrote in his memoirs "the United States would have supported any initiative tending to keep the communists out of government." The CIA and Italian secret service supported this.
• 1974-1976 Potere operaio, Lotta Continua, and the Brigate Rosse disband or split apart after the 1974 arrest of the Red Brigade leaders Renato Curcio and Alberto Franceschini.
Extremism 1968 - 1987
• 1973 Enrico Berlinguer, secretary of the PCI pushed through the Compromesso Storico – partially uniting and pacifying differences between the PCI, the socialists, and the DC – and afferming the non-Soviet characteristics of the PCI (condemned the invasion of Czech in 68).
• The Centre-Left splintered by 76, allowing the PCI to take Italian politics further to the left.
Extremism 1968 - 1978Extremism 1968 - 1978
• The governments of this time were not able to discipline the forces of order to combat either left or right wing terrorism.
• It is a period in which the Italian economy suffered the high prices of oil brought about by the political affermation of OPEC.
Extremism 1968 - 1978Extremism 1968 - 1978
• Unemployment was high, particularly among young people.
• In 1975, the govt. introduced the scala mobile – or moving scale – to equate wages with the cost of living.
• 1977 – Autonomia operaia launches a series of bomb attacks and assassination attempts, primarily against PCI targets =
Dissaffection with Labour Leadership!!!
Extremism 1968 - 1978Extremism 1968 - 1978
• 6 March, 1978 – president of the DC , Aldo Moro, was kidnapped by the Brigate Rosse and after 55 days, assassinated on May 9.
• 1978 – Inflation dropped to 13.6% - the lowest since 1974 – and the govt. attempted to rationalise the tax structure.
• Consensus govt. applying Keynesian economics. High degree of fiscal intervention. Italy joins the European Monetary System
(exchange rate standards)
Extremism 1968 - 1978Extremism 1968 - 1978
• In industry – 1962-72 saw the beginning of privatisation of state industries – particularly in chemicals.
• 1962 – Enrico Mattei stipulates and accord between ENI and the Soviet oil company. The “Seven Sisters” (the largest oil companies) are incredibly annoyed. He then dies in a plane crash.
• 1972 – Eni’s director Cefis becomes head of the Montedison company – afferming the importance of the managerial class while public companies were in the red
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century
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Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
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Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
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Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
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Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the Italy at the Crossroads: Challenges in the 21° Century21° Century
Italy at the Crossroads: Climate ChangeItaly at the Crossroads: Climate Change
• Italy’s “third path” creates some difficulties in adapting to climate change realities in terms of:
• The economy• Politics• Society
Global CO2 Increase 1950-1999
NOAA
Contributors to Global Warming 1900-1999
Europe adds 27.7% to overall global warming
Italy at the Crossroads: Climate Change
The Economic Impact of Climate Change in Italy:
Assumptions:
Option 1 = no reaction: The Stern Report (2006) estimated this would cost
20% of global GDP
Option 2 = diversified reaction: Stern stated that this should cost 1% of global GDP
Fragmented data for Italy.
Estimates for:
weather impacts
sea-level rise
Italy at the Crossroads: Climate Change
Weather impacts of climate change in Italy:
Sectors affected are: agriculture, forests, water, tourism and health
Study compared projected impact in Sicily and Lombardy:
Adaptive behaviour:
The south: hot summers = more time at beach and pool
The North: hot summers = less use of transport and private cars
Italy at the Crossroads: Climate Change
Economic effects: Cost of mitigation vs. Benefits
Dangers: increase average 328 forest fires per region
coastal flooding
drought
tourisim
agriculture
Intensive Crop Agriculture 1999
Per Capita Water Use (2000 – cubic metres/year)
The Ex-Granary of Urbino 2007
Urbino: Population Expansion to the Suburbs 1985-2007
Urbino: Problems of Industry in the Appennine Foothills
Urbino: Problems of Urban Infrastructure
Urbino: Mixed Suburban and Industrual Areas – The Valleys
Urbino: Problems of Urban Infrastructure – Walled Towns and Parking