Download - Connecticut’s Declining Prison Population
Connecticut’s Declining Prison Population:Some contributing factors
Presented to:CJPAC
September 29, 2016
Research and Evaluation Unit, Criminal Justice Division, OPM
CT’s prison population since 2008
Since February 1, 2008*, the total prison has contracted by 4,871 prisoners (19,894 to 15,023), a 24% decline.
During the same period, the state’s sentenced-prison population declined by 3,816 prisoners (14,998 to 11,182), a 27% drop.
* The state’s prison population hit its historic peak in February 2008.
19894
18978
1805317746
17022
16347
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1616715500
15023
15000
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19000
20000
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Pris
oner
s in
CT D
OC
faci
litie
s
CT’s prison population since 1997
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
JAN 1997APRJULOCTJAN 1998APRJULOCTJAN 1999APRJULOCTJAN 2000APRJULOCTJAN 2001APRJULOCTJAN 2002APRJULOCTJAN 2003APRJULOCTJAN 2004APRJULOCTJAN 2005APRJULOCTJAN 2006APRJULOCTJAN 2007APRJULOCTJAN 2008APRJULOCTJAN 2009APRJULYOCTJAN 2010APRJULYOCTJAN 2011APRJULYOCTJAN 2012APRJULYOCTJAN 2013APRJULYOCTJAN 2014APRJULYOCTJAN 2015APRJULYOCTJAN 2016APRJULY
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JAN 1997APRJULOCTJAN 1998APRJULOCTJAN 1999APRJULOCTJAN 2000APRJULOCTJAN 2001APRJULOCTJAN 2002APRJULOCTJAN 2003APRJULOCTJAN 2004APRJULOCTJAN 2005APRJULOCTJAN 2006APRJULOCTJAN 2007APRJULOCTJAN 2008APRJULOCTJAN 2009APRJULYOCTJAN 2010APRJULYOCTJAN 2011APRJULYOCTJAN 2012APRJULYOCTJAN 2013APRJULYOCTJAN 2014APRJULYOCTJAN 2015APRJULYOCTJAN 2016APRJULY
Wom
enMen
Men Women
John Rowland Jodi Rell Dannel Malloy
John Armstrong Theresa Lantz B. Murphy L. Arnone J. Dzurenda S. SempleGovernorDOC Comm.
DOC transfers 500 prisoners
to VA
Last CT prisoner returns from VA
ACLU sues over conditions at VA prisons
Michael Ross executed
Cheshire murders
TOP program opens
RREC implemented DUI home
confinement
DOC population peaks at 19,894 Raise the
age for 16-year olds
Raise the age for 17-year olds
Prisoner re-entry center opens at Cybulski
Marijuana decriminalization
2nd Chance Act
The DOC population since 2008
2 Governors and 5 DOC Commissioners We can point to no single factor that can explain CT’s
declining prison population There were many contributing factors to the reduced
prison count, several will be highlighted here: Declining crime rates Fewer arrests Fewer admits
New people 2014 Recidivism
Raise the age legislation Reduced penalties for narcotics possession DUI home confinement Parole Board reforms, increasing community caseloads Re-integration Center and CRU
Reported Crime in CT
Between 2008 and 2015: Property crime in CT dropped by 24.8% Violent crime declined by 26.4%
87,442 82,712 78,519 77,445 77,380 71,191 69,351 65,778
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Property crimes
10,768 10,532 10,077 9,887 10,167 9,107 8,495 7,925
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Violent crimes
21,664(-24.8%)
2,843(-26.4%)
Source: DESPP, CT UCR data
Arrests and arraignments in CT
Between 2009 and 2016*, statewide criminal arrests* have declined by 31%. Arraignments were down by 19%.
117,196 124,249114,156 114,789
101,065 94,856 90,310 84,703 85,669
0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Arrests38,580(-31.0%)
* Arrest data from OBTS – arrests with new dockets
43,121 42267 40708 37571 37805 36893 36148 34,869
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Arraignments8,252(-19.2%)
Arrests in CT
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Arrests by some major crime types
Violent Burglary Drug related Larceny Simple assault
Crime type 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % changeViolent 6,902 5,515 5,486 4,950 4,770 4,463 4,019 3,557 -48%
Burglary 3,230 2,974 2,947 2,873 2,947 2,366 2,421 1,956 -39%
Drug related 18,304 17,791 17,581 13,980 10,331 10,554 9,943 8,981 -51%
Larceny 14,957 15,405 14,194 14,388 14,655 13,830 13,904 12,669 -15%
Simple assault 24,236 24,804 24,312 23,600 22,957 20,910 18,757 17,309 -29%
Fewer arrests, fewer prison admissions
Admissions to DOC facilities have been dropping steadily since 2008 Total admits are down 30.3% Pre-trial admits are down 29.3%
33180 31452 30036 27429 27338 26155 24950 23521 23108
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 est.
All prison admits
23,958 22,298 21,52319,211 19,464 18,744 18,097 16,908 16,940
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016*
Pre-trial admits
10,072(-30.3%)
7,018(-29.3%)
Fewer new people entering prison each year
3,066 2,853 2,838 2,501 2,708 2,633 2,545 2,130
3,4803,000
2,5802,236 2,100 1,863 1,825
1,384
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
New
pre
-tria
l adm
itees25 and older Under 25
Percent change in the number of new persons admitted to DOC on pre-trial status, 2008 to 2014:
All persons: - 33% (6,546 to 4,370)Persons under 25: - 48% (3,480 to 1,825)Persons 25 and older: -17% (3,066 to 2,545)
New persons admitted to the CT DOC on pre-trial status, age quintiles
1941
652
1214959
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
New
pre
-tria
l adm
issio
ns
14 to 19
20 to 23
24 to 28
29 to 37
38 to 91
-75%
-45%
-32%
-21%
-36%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
14 to 19 20 to 23 24 to 28 29 to 37 38 to 91
** 38 to 91 quintile: 51% were 45 or younger; 98% were 65 or younger
Fewer new people are entering the prison system each year…
Raise the age: Incarceration and arrests
25
307
2067
5498
5446
5548
10
207
1952
5413
5235
5614
9
152
1732
5120
4937
5681
15
136
1510
4802
4750
5378
8
92
1391
4894
4927
5676
11 61
1167
4740
4981
5591
17 65
1011
4573
4929
5430
5
71
943
4211
4788
5324
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
<16 16-17 18-21 22-29 30-39 >40Prisoners by Age Group
2009 2010 2011 2012
2013 2014 2015 2016
10130
11813
26139
36522
26880
33997
8345
10387
25693
36014
25319
33509
7402
8419
24375
35601
25083
33010
6104
6987
21398
33285
23757
31447
5703
6121
18508
32712
23922
31615
5069
5131
16167
31658
23470
30109
4528
4911
14567
30783 23866
29290
3878
4290
12422
28856 23318
27156
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
<16 16-17 18-21 22-29 30-39 >40Arrestees by Age Group
2008 2009 2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015
Raise the age: Incarceration and arrests
Age 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016% change
2009 to 2016<16 25 10 9 15 8 11 17 5 -80%16-17 307 207 152 136 92 61 65 71 -77%18-21 2,067 1,952 1,732 1,510 1,391 1,167 1,011 943 -54%22-29 5,498 5,413 5,120 4,802 4,894 4,740 4,573 4,211 -23%30-39 5,446 5,235 4,937 4,750 4,927 4,981 4,929 4,788 -12%>40 5,548 5,614 5,681 5,378 5,676 5,591 5,430 5,324 -4%Total 18,891 18,431 17,631 16,591 16,988 16,551 16,025 15,342 -19%
Age 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015% change
2008 to 2015<16 10,130 8,345 7,402 6,104 5,703 5,069 4,528 3,878 -62%16-17 11,813 10,387 8,419 6,987 6,121 5,131 4,911 4,290 -64%18-21 26,139 25,693 24,375 21,398 18,508 16,167 14,567 12,422 -52%22-29 36,522 36,014 35,601 33,285 32,712 31,658 30,783 28,856 -21%30-39 26,880 25,319 25,083 23,757 23,922 23,470 23,866 23,318 -13%>40 33,997 33,509 33,010 31,447 31,615 30,109 29,290 27,156 -20%Total 145,481 139,267 133,890 122,978 118,581 111,604 107,945 99,920 -31%
Reduced penalties for narcotics possession
229 fewer people, with a narcotics-possession-related controlling offense, were in prison in September 2016 than in October 2015. Total drop: 44.9% Sentenced drop: 39.9% Pre-trial drop: 54.2%
341
205166
76
510
283
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Oct. 14, 2015
Oct. 21, 2015
Oct. 28, 2015
Nov. 4, 2015
Nov. 11, 2015
Nov. 18, 2015
Nov. 25 2015
Dec. 2, 2015Dec. 9 2015Dec. 16, 2015Dec. 23, 2015Dec. 30, 2015Jan. 6, 2016Jan. 13, 2016Jan. 20, 2016Jan. 27, 2016Feb. 3, 2016Feb. 10, 2016Feb. 17, 2016Feb. 24, 2016M
ar. 2, 2016M
ar. 9, 2016M
ar. 16, 2016M
ar. 23, 2016M
ar. 30, 2016Apr. 6, 1026Apr. 13, 2016Apr. 20, 2016Apr. 27, 2016M
ay 4, 2016M
ay 11, 2016M
ay 18, 2016M
ay 25, 2016June 1, 2016June 8, 2016June 15, 2016June 22, 2016July 6, 2016July 13, 2016July 20, 2016July 27, 2016Aug. 3, 2016Aug. 10, 2016Aug. 17, 2016Aug. 24, 2016Aug. 31, 2016Sept. 7, 2016Sept. 14, 2016Sept. 21, 2016
In prison on 21a-279 class offenses, controlling
Sentenced Pre-trial Total
DUI Home Confinement
Since its inception in March 2011, 1,441 offenders have been released through the DUI home confinement program.
On any given day, approximately 100 people are supervised in the community instead of in prison.
133
95 92 91
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AUG
SEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2012FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NEJU
LYAU
GSEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2013FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NEJU
LYAU
GSEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2014FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NEJU
LYAU
GSEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2015FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NEJU
LYAU
GSEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2016FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NEJU
LYAU
GSEP
DUI Home confinement caseloads
Recidivism rates v. recidivism events, 2011 & 2014
4.4%
8.2%
11.8%15.0%
18.0%20.6%
23.1%25.2%
27.1%28.8%
30.6%32.4%
4.1%
7.8%
11.4%
14.9%17.7%
20.7%23.2%
25.5%27.8%
29.6%31.4%
32.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Cum
. per
cent
of r
etur
nees
Months since discharge or release
Recidivsm, return-to-prison, 2011 and 2014 cohorts
2014 cohort, cum %2011 cohort, cum %
2011 2014 Change,%Offenders in cohort 12,579 10,328 -17.9%Recidivators w/in 1-year 4,138 3,348 -19.1%1-year recidivism rate 32.9% 32.4% -1.5%
Recidivism - 1-year return to prison, 2011 v. 2014
Recidivism rates v. recidivism events, 2011 & 2014
2011 2014 Change,%Offenders in cohort 12,579 10,328 -17.9%Recidivators w/in 1-year 4,138 3,348 -19.1%1-year recidivism rate 32.9% 32.4% -1.5%
Recidivism - 1-year return to prison, 2011 v. 2014
514 469 456 439
352
379
315 288
290
224
225 187
451 398 370 331 310 268
257 222 197 174
179
191
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Offe
nder
s re
turn
ing
to p
rios
n
Months since release or discharge
20112014
The DOC Community Release Unit (CRU)
• In operation since March 2015• Unified decision-making across facilities
• All potential, non-parole, discretionary offender releases are scrutinized using the same standards
• Data-driven accountability• Improved efficiencies up the supply-chain• Better ability to assess gaps in programming and
performance• Solid bench-marking
• Shortened wait times to release for release-eligible offenders • 800 to 900 cases reviewed per month• Release grant rates of approximately 50%
The DOC Community Release Unit (CRU)
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
3,200
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
JAN 2012
FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NEJU
LYAU
GSEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2013FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NEJU
LYAU
GSEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2014FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NEJU
LYAU
GSEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2015FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NJU
LAU
GSEPO
CTN
OV
DECJAN
2016FEBM
ARAPRM
AYJU
NJU
LAU
GSEP
Comm
unity supervision, discretionarySe
nten
ced
popu
latio
n
SentencedDiscretionary
CRU unit created
Although the BOPP has made strong progress in increasing the number of parole hearings, in its reconsideration of transfer parole and its review of technical violation procedures, OPM believes that the creation of CRU was the primary factor that has helped to bend the trend line for community supervision caseloads.
Community Release Unit (CRU)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
SEP 2006
DEC 2006
MAR 2007
JUN 2007
SEP 2007
DEC 2007
MAR 2008
JUN 2008
SEP 2008
DEC 2008
MAR 2009
JUNE 2009
SEP 2009
DEC 2009
MAR 2010
JUNE 2010
SEP 2010
DEC 2010
MAR 2011
JUNE 2011
SEP 2011
DEC 2011
MAR 2012
JUNE 2012
SEP 2012
DEC 2012
MAR 2013
JUNE 2013
SEP 2013
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUNE 2014
SEP 2014
DEC 2014
MAR 2015
JUNE 2015
SEP 2015
DEC 2015
MAR 2016
JUNE 2016
SEP 2016
Indexing data allows us to track the performance of different variables relative to themselves. Indexing also allows us to evaluate the comparative performance of different variables from the same starting point.
The total DOC population, indexed
Community Release Unit (CRU)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
SEP 2006
DEC 2006
MAR 2007
JUN 2007
SEP 2007
DEC 2007
MAR 2008
JUN 2008
SEP 2008
DEC 2008
MAR 2009
JUNE 2009
SEP 2009
DEC 2009
MAR 2010
JUNE 2010
SEP 2010
DEC 2010
MAR 2011
JUNE 2011
SEP 2011
DEC 2011
MAR 2012
JUNE 2012
SEP 2012
DEC 2012
MAR 2013
JUNE 2013
SEP 2013
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUNE 2014
SEP 2014
DEC 2014
MAR 2015
JUNE 2015
SEP 2015
DEC 2015
MAR 2016
JUNE 2016
SEP 2016
The total DOC population, indexed
The facility population, indexed
Here we compare the performance of the total DOC population against the facility population. Note the increase in sentenced offenders post-Cheshire.
Community Release Unit (CRU)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
SEP 2006
DEC 2006
MAR 2007
JUN 2007
SEP 2007
DEC 2007
MAR 2008
JUN 2008
SEP 2008
DEC 2008
MAR 2009
JUNE 2009
SEP 2009
DEC 2009
MAR 2010
JUNE 2010
SEP 2010
DEC 2010
MAR 2011
JUNE 2011
SEP 2011
DEC 2011
MAR 2012
JUNE 2012
SEP 2012
DEC 2012
MAR 2013
JUNE 2013
SEP 2013
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUNE 2014
SEP 2014
DEC 2014
MAR 2015
JUNE 2015
SEP 2015
DEC 2015
MAR 2016
JUNE 2016
SEP 2016
The total DOC population, indexed
The facility population, indexed
Supervised population, indexed
Finally we attach the indexed trend line for offenders under community supervision. Note how volatile community supervision performance has been since 2007 and the reforms of 2008.
Community Release Unit (CRU)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
SEP 2006
DEC 2006
MAR 2007
JUN 2007
SEP 2007
DEC 2007
MAR 2008
JUN 2008
SEP 2008
DEC 2008
MAR 2009
JUNE 2009
SEP 2009
DEC 2009
MAR 2010
JUNE 2010
SEP 2010
DEC 2010
MAR 2011
JUNE 2011
SEP 2011
DEC 2011
MAR 2012
JUNE 2012
SEP 2012
DEC 2012
MAR 2013
JUNE 2013
SEP 2013
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUNE 2014
SEP 2014
DEC 2014
MAR 2015
JUNE 2015
SEP 2015
DEC 2015
MAR 2016
JUNE 2016
SEP 2016
The total DOC population, indexed
The facility population, indexed
Supervised population, indexed
Post Cheshire collapse of community supervision
Community Release Unit (CRU)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
SEP 2006
DEC 2006
MAR 2007
JUN 2007
SEP 2007
DEC 2007
MAR 2008
JUN 2008
SEP 2008
DEC 2008
MAR 2009
JUNE 2009
SEP 2009
DEC 2009
MAR 2010
JUNE 2010
SEP 2010
DEC 2010
MAR 2011
JUNE 2011
SEP 2011
DEC 2011
MAR 2012
JUNE 2012
SEP 2012
DEC 2012
MAR 2013
JUNE 2013
SEP 2013
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUNE 2014
SEP 2014
DEC 2014
MAR 2015
JUNE 2015
SEP 2015
DEC 2015
MAR 2016
JUNE 2016
SEP 2016
The total DOC population, indexed
The facility population, indexed
Supervised population, indexed
The implementation of RREC drives down both the facility and community populations.
Community Release Unit (CRU)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
SEP 2006
DEC 2006
MAR 2007
JUN 2007
SEP 2007
DEC 2007
MAR 2008
JUN 2008
SEP 2008
DEC 2008
MAR 2009
JUNE 2009
SEP 2009
DEC 2009
MAR 2010
JUNE 2010
SEP 2010
DEC 2010
MAR 2011
JUNE 2011
SEP 2011
DEC 2011
MAR 2012
JUNE 2012
SEP 2012
DEC 2012
MAR 2013
JUNE 2013
SEP 2013
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUNE 2014
SEP 2014
DEC 2014
MAR 2015
JUNE 2015
SEP 2015
DEC 2015
MAR 2016
JUNE 2016
SEP 2016
The total DOC population, indexed
The facility population, indexed
Supervised population, indexed
A shift to structured decision-making leads to a sustained decrease in the community population.
Community Release Unit (CRU)
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
SEP 2006
DEC 2006
MAR 2007
JUN 2007
SEP 2007
DEC 2007
MAR 2008
JUN 2008
SEP 2008
DEC 2008
MAR 2009
JUNE 2009
SEP 2009
DEC 2009
MAR 2010
JUNE 2010
SEP 2010
DEC 2010
MAR 2011
JUNE 2011
SEP 2011
DEC 2011
MAR 2012
JUNE 2012
SEP 2012
DEC 2012
MAR 2013
JUNE 2013
SEP 2013
DEC 2013
MAR 2014
JUNE 2014
SEP 2014
DEC 2014
MAR 2015
JUNE 2015
SEP 2015
DEC 2015
MAR 2016
JUNE 2016
SEP 2016
The total DOC population, indexed
The facility population, indexed
Supervised population, indexed
The system reverses a years long trend driving more offenders to the community by increasing efficiencies in the release process
Prepared by:
Ivan Kuzyk, Kyle Baudoin, Kendall BobulaCT OPM, Criminal justice Policy and Planning Div.
Research Unit