Download - Community vulnerability and climate change
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Community vulnerability and climate change
Jason Kreitler, USGS
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Various projects ongoing
• Geography of climate change – mostly ecological– Vulnerability and how to
adapt?• Community vulnerability
to wildland fire – Socioecological– Less climate
change
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Impacts of climate change on communities
• Important general questions:– Is climate changing?– How, where, and at what
rate?– What are the effects?– What are the threats?– How do those threats
affect people & communities?
– Changes in magintude and timing of temp & precip, vegetation distrubution and phenology
– Drought, changes in severity and length of fire season, flooding, sea level rise, snowmelt timing
– Direct exposure to threats, changes to agricultural production, changes in ecosystem services, cultural disruption, economic disruption, conflict
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Global CO2 emissions – IPCC 4th assessment
Raupach et al. 2007 PNAS
A2
B1: stabilizing population, rapid technology conversion
growing population, high carbon energy sources
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IPCC 2007, Fig. 10.4
Projections of future temperature – IPCC 4th assessment
A2
B1
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Bay Area climate
summer maxtemperature
precipitation
water deficit
winter mintemperature
PRISM climate layers downscaled to 270 m by Al and Lorrie Flint, USS
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Climatic Water Deficit:excess evaporative demand relative to available water
PET depends on temperature and insolationWater availability depends
on precipitation, soil storage and runoff
CWD
courtesy: Al and Lorrie Flint, USGSsee Stephenson 1998 J. Biogeog.
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Diana Stalberg et al. 2010 PLoS ONE (PRBO) Will Cornwell et al. in prep. (UC Berkeley)
Several, independent approaches to vegetation modeling agree: future climates favor shrub and grassland at the expense of forest
‘Random forest’ model of CalVeg types800 m resolution, UCSC regional climate model
Predictive vegetation modeling of Bay Area vegetation270 m downscaled climate, GFDL mid-century future
forest remaining
forest woodland
forest shrubland
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Relative probability of vegetation transition
(GFDL A2, mid-century vs. present)
The vulnerability of vegetation types is very patchy:high probabilities of change occur where vegetation patches are near the edge of their climate
envelope
W. Cornwell et al. in prep.
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Native vegetation transitions vs. alien invasions
vegetation transitions depend on:1) mortality of existing mature plants2) propagule sources for new species
source: Larry Workman QIN, Panoramio.com
?
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Agents of mortality: Disease
source: UC Davis; http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/08/070815145316.htm
Sudden oak death
source: Center for Invasive Species ResearchUC Riverside
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Agents of mortality: Drought and pests
piñon pine mortalitycredit: Craig Allen, USGS
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Agents of mortality: Fire
Historical probability of fire1950-2003
(climate-driven model) 2010-2039 (A2) 2070-2099 (A2)
16 GCM ensemble (A2 scenario): change relative to historical period
Figures: courtesy Meg Krawchuck and Max Mortiz, UC BerkeleyHistorical: Parisien and Moritz 2009 Ecol. Monogr.
Futures: Moritz et al. in review
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Cohesive Strategy• 3 Phases• Just finished
Phase 2• Next, how to
quantify for national tradeoff analysis
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Fire adapted human community conceptual diagrams
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Fire adapted human community conceptual diagrams