RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 1
Common but differentiated convergence
Michel den Elzen (RIVM, the Netherlands)Niklas Höhne (Ecofys, Germany)Martin Weiß (UBA, Germany)
Side Event COP-10 14th December 2004
Buenos Aires
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 2
Delayed participationCommon but Differentiated
Convergence (CDC)
GH
G/c
apTime
Threshold
Contraction & Convergence (C&C)
GH
G/c
ap
Time
IC
DC
LDC
CDC overcome two basic concerns of C&C:1. ADCs do not have to reduce at the same time as ICs2. CDC avoids political problems related to the resource sharing concept
and financial transfers, because of no excess emission for LDCs
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 3
Common-but-differentiated convergence (CDC)
� Three stages1. No commitments2. Positively binding emission targets 3. Convergence to an equal per capita level within e.g.
40 years as of entry
� Threshold: � World average GHG/cap
1. Timely participation NA-12. Rewards DC that keep emissions low3. Rewards Annex I action (low threshold)
GH
G/c
ap
Time
Threshold
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 4
Characteristics of CDC� Common: all countries converge to the same per capita
emission level.
� Differentiated: countries follow these common trajectories delayed
� Conditional: Non-Annex I actions are linked to Annex I actions
� Without excess emissions: only countries participate thatneed to reduce emissions
� Efficient: developing countries’ reductions are encouraged by “positively binding” targets. Emission trading possible
� Simple: Simple rules, only countries with high per capita emission need to participate
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 5
Results towards 550 ppmv CO2
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
tCO
2eq
/cap
Annex I
Non Annex I
World total
Threshold
PhilippinesIndiaChina
S. Africa
Kenya
Saudi Arabia
USA
EU 25
JapanArgentina
Towards 550 ppmv CO2:
Threshold:30% above world average,
Convergence level:4.5 tCO2eq/cap
A1B scenarioExcl. LUCF CO2
GHG per capita
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 6
Results towards 550 ppmv CO2
Towards 550 ppmv CO2:
Threshold:30% above world average,
Convergence level:4.5 tCO2eq/cap
A1B scenarioExcl. LUCF CO2
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
MtC
O2e
q
India
China
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
USA
EU 25
Japan
GHG emissions
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 7
Results towards 450 ppmv CO2
Towards 450 ppmv CO2:
Threshold:10% below world average,
Convergence level:2.9 tCO2eq/cap
A1B scenarioExcl. LUCF CO2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
tCO
2eq
/cap
Annex I
Non Annex I
World total
Threshold
PhilippinesIndia
China
S. Africa
Kenya
Saudi Arabia
USAEU 25
Japan
Argentina
GHG per capita
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 8
Results towards 450 ppmv CO2
Towards 450 ppmv CO2:
Threshold:10% below world average,
Convergence level:2.9 tCO2eq/cap
A1B scenarioExcl. LUCF CO20
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
MtC
O2e
q
India
China
Brazil
Saudi Arabia
USA
EU 25
Japan
GHG emissions
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 9
Conclusions� New concept for an international climate regime
� Simple, and eliminates two concerns of C&C:
� ADCs do not have to reduce at the same time as ICs
� avoids political problems related to the resource sharing concept and financial transfers (no excess emissions LDCs)
� For 450 CO2: participation at roughly world average and convergence to 3 tCO2eq./cap within 40 years
� For 550 CO2: participation at roughly 50% above global average and convergence to 4.5 tCO2eq./cap within 40 years
� Decisions on post 2012 regime can be guided by the principles provided in the CDC approach:
� Developed countries per capita emissions converge
� Developing countries do the same but delayed and conditional to developed country action.
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 10
Common but differentiated convergence
N. Höhne, M. den Elzen, M. Weiß “Common but differentiated convergence (CDC)” in Niklas Höhne, Dian Phylipsen, Simone Ullrich, Kornelis Blok, 2004: “Options for the second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol”, Research report for the German Federal Environmental Agency, soon available on www.fiacc.net
N. Höhne, M. den Elzen, M. Weiß “Common but differentiated convergence (CDC) - A new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy” submitted to climate policy
Contact:Niklas Höhne, [email protected] den Elzen, �������������� �����Martin Weiß, [email protected]
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 11
Backup slides
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 12
• LDC are exempt• Resource transfers to LDC, but these lack institutional capacity
• delayed participation, conditional to developed countries’ action
• All countries participate
• No excess allowances• Excess allowances (hot air) LDCs
• Via the delay it accounts for historical responsibility
• does not consider historical responsibility
• Two forms of commitments• One form of commitments
• bottom-up• top-down• Simple rules• Very simple rulesCDCContraction & Convergence
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 13
Time of participation 450 ppmv CO2
Region 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Annex I 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of Eastern Europe 71% 74% 80% 85% 90% 91% 91% 92% 92%
Argentina 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Brazil 67% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Mexico 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Venezuela 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of Latin America 18% 69% 74% 81% 89% 89% 89% 89% 89%
Egypt 0% 0% 67% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
South Africa 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Nigeria 0% 0% 50% 67% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of North Africa 34% 58% 60% 87% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of Africa 2% 2% 9% 28% 48% 52% 65% 71% 71%
Saudi Arabia 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
United Arab Emirates 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of Middle East 73% 85% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88% 88%
China 0% 67% 83% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
India 0% 0% 33% 67% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Indonesia 0% 0% 67% 67% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
South Korea 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Malaysia 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Philippines 0% 0% 0% 50% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
Singapore 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Thailand 67% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of Asia 8% 8% 10% 28% 41% 48% 51% 52% 53%
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 14
Time of participation 550 ppmv CO2
Region 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Annex I 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of Eastern Europe 38% 53% 57% 58% 58% 59% 60% 62% 62%
Argentina 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
Brazil 0% 0% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
Mexico 0% 33% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%
Venezuela 83% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of Latin America 7% 13% 16% 29% 37% 37% 37% 39% 41%
Egypt 0% 0% 0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
South Africa 33% 67% 67% 67% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
Nigeria 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 33% 33% 50%
Rest of North Africa 6% 6% 19% 40% 42% 42% 49% 49% 49%
Rest of Africa 1% 1% 2% 3% 11% 16% 23% 28% 32%
Saudi Arabia 83% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
United Arab Emirates 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Rest of Middle East 31% 41% 50% 64% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65%
China 0% 0% 17% 33% 33% 33% 67% 67% 67%
India 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33%
Indonesia 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 17% 33% 33%
South Korea 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
Malaysia 33% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
Philippines 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 17%
Singapore 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
Thailand 0% 0% 33% 67% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83%
Rest of Asia 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 11% 16% 17% 17%
RIVM (the Netherlands) and Ecofys (Germany) 15
Immediate participation
Contraction & Convergence
GH
G/c
apTime
BAU
GH
G/c
ap
Time
IC
DC
LDC
IC
DC
LDC