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Climate Change Effects on Tree Growth,
Vegetation Distributions and Fire
Crystal Raymond
David Peterson USFS Pacific Northwest
Research Station
Jeremy LittellClimate Impacts Group
University of WA
April 8, 2011
Bellingham, WA
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Climate Change effects on Forest
Vegetation
tree regeneration, growth, productivity, and mortality
species biogeography and forest composition
disturbance rates and severity (wind, fire, insects,
pathogens)
Interactions between disturbances
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Water
Balance
Deficit
The difference between atmospheric demand for water and the water available to satisfy that demand.
slide courtesy of:
J. Littell
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Water balance and forest effects
As deficit increases:
tree growth and regeneration become more limited in water limited systems
tree vulnerability increases
fuel moisture declines, so fire activity (spread, severity, area, frequency) likely increases in forested systems
slide courtesy of: J. Littell
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Climate and tree regeneration
Regeneration increases when the effects of limiting factors are reduced:
Snowpack
Growing season length
Soil moisture in summer
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Climatic variability and tree growth
warm cold
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Subalpine forests growth increase
Mid elevation forests growth depends on precipitation
Dry low elevation forests large growth decrease
Wet low elevation forests growth increase or decrease
Climatic change and tree growth
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Species Distributions:
What can we learn from the past?
Abundance and distribution of tree species change individualistically in response to climate change.
Are warm periods of the past an analog for the future?
9000 ~ 5000 years ago
900 ~ 700 years ago
But
current rate of warming is unprecedented
no analogue climates are likely
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Modeled Vegetation Distributions
MC1 vegetation type Regional examples
Subalpine Forestsubalpine fir, lodgepole pine, mountain hemlock,
whitebark pine
Maritime Conifer ForestDouglas-fir, western hemlock, sitka spruce, Pacific
silver fir
Temperate Conifer ForestPonderosa pine, Douglas-fir, Lodgepole pine, grand fir,
western juniper
Historical
(Rogers and Neilson 2010)
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wet, warm (A2) wet, hot (A2) dry, hot (A2)
(Rogers and Neilson 2009)
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Projecting future area burned
in the PNW
Use the relationships between
annual area burned and
climatic variables in the 20th
century to project area burned
with future climate scenarios.
Climate variables:
1. precipitation
2. summer temperature
3. water balance deficit
Scale:
1. PNW Region
2. subregions
Littell et al. 2010
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Projections of future area
burned for the PNW
Historical average:
425,000 acres
2020s: 0.8 million
2040s: 1.1 million
2080s: 2.0 million
Probability of a yr >> 2
million acres:
Historical: 5%
2020s: 5% (1 in 20)
2040s: 17% (~1 in 6)
2080s: 47% (~1 in 2)
*Best model (tie): summer precip + summer temp
OR summer water balance deficit
Littell et al. 2010
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Western Cascades: 8-fold increase
Eastern Cascades: 2-fold increase
Future area burned in ecosections
2020s 2040s 2080s 2020s 2040s 2080s
Littell et al. 2010
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Pre-settlement large fires in the
western Cascades
• Tree age data from Douglas-fir
points to large fire ~1308: large fire
or series of fires “swept western
Washington” and burned “at least
half of the Olympic Peninsula”
• ~1701: fires burned about “1 million
acres on the Olympic peninsula and
3 – 10 million in western
Washington”
Henderson, J. A., D. H. Peter, R. D. Lesher, and D. C. Shaw. 1989. Forested Plant Associations of the Olympic National Forest. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region. R6-ECOL-TP 001-88. 502 p.
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Tripod Complex Fire 2006
Highest-severity patches had mountain pine beetle
Slide: Don McKenzie, USFS
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Climate Change Adaptation
Options for Forest
Management in the
Pacific Northwest
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1. Reconsider thinning prescriptions to:
reduce inter-tree competition
increase tree growth and vigor reduce fire hazard
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2. Increase resilience at large spatial scales
by increasing landscape diversity.
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3. Maintain biological diversity
Identify populations and species sensitive
to increased disturbance
Experiment with species and genotypes
Develop gene conservation programs
Maintain a tree seed inventory with high
quality seed for a range of species
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3. Control exotic species
Implement early detection and rapid response
Monitor post-disturbance conditions under which
exotics may be better competitors in a warmer climate
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4. Plan for post-disturbance response
Anticipate extreme events through scenario planning
Increase capacity to restore forests after disturbance
Incorporate responses to disturbances in planning
documentation
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Questions
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Changes in vegetation distributions
wet, warmwet, hotdry, hot
absolute area
Subalpine Forest subalpine fir, lodgepole pine, mountain hemlock, whitebark pine
Maritime Conifer Forest Douglas-fir, western hemlock, sitka spruce, Pacific silver fir
Temperate Shrublandbig sagebrush- bluebunch wheat grass, big sagebrish-Idaho
fescue
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Changes in vegetation distributions
wet, warmwet, hotdry, hot
absolute area
Temperate Conifer Forest ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine, grand fir
Temperate conifer woodland ponderosa pine – western juniper woodland
Temperate Grassland bluebunch wheat grass, Idaho fescue
Subtropical mixed forest Douglas-fir – Madrone –Tanoak