China’s Interest in AfricaChina as Savior, or China as Exploiter?
David Pietz, Washington State University
Libya
Security Council Resolution 1973 (March 17, 2011):
immediate cease fire, authorized all member states to protect their civilians, authorized a no-fly zone,
and strengthened arms embargo against Libya
What was China’s position?
In Four Parts
A Deepening Relationship: Some Data and Characterization
Background: Feeding the Economic Machine
Case Study: Oil
Generalizing: “Resource Nationalism,” “Beijing Consensus,” “New Great Game”
In the Ten + Years since the 1997 “East Asian Economic Crisis” . . .
Return to growth of ca 8-10% annually
Poverty rates cut in half
$3 trillion (US$) in foreign reserves
3-4x of $ value of economic output
Emergence of China as global economic power
China: Key Indicators2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007/p 2008/p
Output, Employment and PricesGDP ( % change previous year) 9.1 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.7 9.6 8.7Industrial production index (value-added) 10.0 12.8 11.5 11.6 12.5 11.0 9.6Unemployment rate (%) /1 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2Real wage growth 15.5 12.0 10.5 12.8 .. ..Consumer price index (% change, previous year) -0.8 1.2 3.9 1.8 1.5 2.5 2.4
Public SectorGovernment balance (% GDP) -3.0 -2.5 -1.5 -1.3 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0Domestic public sector debt (% GDP)/7 18.3 18.6 18.0 17.5 16.1 14.8 14.0
Foreign Trade, BOP and External DebtTrade balance ($US billion) 44.1 44.8 59.0 134.2 170.0 174.4 345.7Exports of goods ($US billion) 325.6 438.4 593.4 762.5 969.1 1190.0 1435.0 (% change, previous year)/2 22.4 34.6 35.4 28.4 27.1 22.8 20.6Key export (% change, previous year) /3 23.9 35.8 37.0 29.0 29.1 23.8 21.2Imports of goods ($US billion) 281.5 393.6 534.4 628.3 754.0 910.9 1089.3 (% change, previous year)/2 21.2 39.8 35.8 17.6 17.9 20.8 19.6Current account balance ($US billion ) 35.4 45.9 68.7 160.8 230.0 260.0 296.8 (% GDP) 2.4 2.8 3.6 7.2 8.7 8.4 8.1Foreign direct investment (US$ billion)/4 49.3 47.1 54.9 79.1 78.3 67.0 50.0Total external debt ($US billion) 186.4 208.7 248.9 281.6 .. .. (% GDP) 13.0 12.8 12.9 12.5 .. ..Short-term debt ($US billion) 65.7 88.1 115.8 148.3 .. ..Debt service ratio (% exports of g&s) 7.8 7.9 3.4 3.1 2.2 ..Reserves, including gold ($US billion) 292.0 409.2 615.5 822.5 .. .. (months of imports of goods and services) 10.5 10.6 12.0 13.0 .. ..Total reserves excl. gold ($US billion) 291.1 408.2 614.5 821.5 1068.5 ..
Financial MarketsDomestic credit (% change, previous year, nominal) 29.3 19.6 8.8 10.7 16.3 ..Short-term interest rate (less than 20 days)/5 2.7 2.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 ..Exchange rate (end-period) 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.2Real effective exchange rate ( + = appn) 2000=100 101.9 95.2 92.7 92.5 .. .. (% change, previous year) -2.8 -6.6 -2.6 -0.2 .. ..Stock market index (Dec. 19, 1990=100), close/6 1419.1 1569.1 1330.2 1220.9 2815.1 ..
Memo: GDP (US$ billion) 1453.8 1641.0 1931.7 2243.9 2615.4 3112.0
China's Oil Production (m b/d)
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Saudi Arabia 9.48Russia 9.40United States 7.61Iran 3.98China 3.63Mexico 3.42Norway 3.22Canada 3.14European Union 3.12Venezuela 3.08United Arab Emirates 2.54Nigeria 2.45Kuwait 2.42Iraq 2.13United Kingdom 2.08Libya 1.72Angola 1.60Brazil 1.59Algeria 1.37
CIA World Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/rankorder/2173rank.html)
Top Twenty Oil Producing Countries(million b/d)
China’s Oil Balance
Primary Energy Demand by Fuel - 2010
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass and Waste
Other Renewables
Primary Energy Demand by Fuel - 2030
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass andWasteOther Renewables
Region Number of Deals % of DealsEurasia 21 15Middle East 25 18Africa 37 27Northeast Asia 3 2Southeast Asia 31 22Latin America 16 11North America 6 4Total 139 100
Chinese Petroleum Companies Investments AbroadKey Countries
MongoliaIndonesia, Australia, Papua New Guinea
Venezuela, Brazil, Ecuador, PeruCanada
Russia, Kazakhstan, UzbekistanSaudia Arabia, Oman, Iram
Sudan, Angola, Algeria, Nigeria
BY THE NUMBERS: China-Africa Economic Integration
$114 billion: Value of trade between China and Africa (2010)43.5% Year-on-Year growth in two-way trade45: Number of African countries China has signed bi-lateral
trade agreements with$9.33 billion: Amount of Chinese direct investment in Africa
(end of 2009)5,000: Scholarships offered to African students by Chinese
government$10 billion: Amount of preferential loans China has
promised to African countries1 million: Number of Chinese working in Africa (100,000 ten
years ago)500: Number of infrastructure project China has financed in
Africa (end of 2009)
What Makes China an Attractive Partner?
Lots of moneyGenerous lenderSpeed of project implementationWilling to take on large infrastructure
projects (West not interested in)
Anaytical Frameworks:
A New Great Game?
A New Colonialism?
Development Paths: Washington Consensus vs. the Beijing Consensus