Chapter Eighteen:
Growth and Sustainability in the Twenty-First
Century
Climate Change
Figure 18.1: Global Temperature Trends, 1900-2100
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, www.globalchange.gov .
Economic Growth and the Environment
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 $ GNP per Capita
250 -
200 -
150 -
100 -
50 -
0 -
Kg
S02
per
Cap
ita
Source: Panayotou, T., "Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” 1993.
GNP per capita
Su
lfu
r d
iox
ide
em
issi
on
s p
er c
apit
a (k
g)
Su
lfur
dio
xide
em
issi
on
s p
er
capi
ta (
kg)
GNP per capita
Figure 18.2: Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
Source: T. Panayotou, “Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” International Labour Office Working Paper, 1993.
Brunei
United Arab Emirates
United States
India
China
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia
Kazakhstan
Gabon
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
Figure 18.3: Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs GDP per Capita, 2009
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database 2013.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Pe
rce
nt o
f to
tal t
ax
reve
nu
eFigure 18.4: Environmentally Based Taxes as a Share of Total Tax Revenue, Select Industrialized Countries
Source: OECD, OECD/EEA Instruments Database 2007
Table 18.1: Global Population Classification by Income and Environmental Impacts, 2013
Source: World Bank, Little Green Data Book 2013; World Development Indicators 2013.
Leis
ure
Income, Consumption
United States
Europe
Figure 18.5: A Consumption Possibilities Frontier
Are Stabilization and Sustainability in Conflict?
Steady State
Time
Resource-usingEconomic Activities
Figure 18.6: Growth Reaching a Steady-State
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0
50
100
150
200
Ind
ex
(20
05=
10
0)
Year
GDP/Capita
GHGUnemploymentPovertyDebt to GDP
Figure 18.7: A No-Growth Scenario for the Canadian Economy
Source: Adapted from Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Deisgn, not Disaster. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2008, p. 182.
Appendix: Demographic Challenges
Table 18.2: Stages of Demographic Transition
(a) 1900 (b) 2000
(c) 2040, projected
Figure 18.8: Population by Age and Sex, United States, 1900, 2000, and 2040 (projected)
Source: Wan Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, and Kimberly A. DeBarros, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P23–209, “65+ in the United States: 2005”, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Old
-Age
Dep
ende
ncy
Rat
io
Year
Italy
China
United States
Figure 18.9: Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1950-2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Population Database. Figure based on mediumvariant projections.