Challenges of statistics on international
migration in the CIS region
Olga Chudinovskikh,
Lomonosov Moscow State University /
Higher School of economics
High-level seminar on population censuses and statistics of migration in the CIS countries
UNECE, Federal State Statistics Service of RussiaGelendzhik, 16-18 October 2013
Positive trends of the latest decade Peculiarities of migration in the CIS region
and its reflection in statistics Producers and main types of data – a
system, but not separate elements Main challenges in the sphere of statistics
on migration through the prism of statistics on permanent-type and temporary labour migration
Concluding remarks
Overview
1. Development of migration modules in the questionnaires used at the recent censuses
2. Every country has agencies that collect almost all types of data related to migration (level of development and interactions may differ)
3. More sources are involved into data processing and exchange at the national level (depending on financial support and political will of data producers).
4. More data are published , access to statistics becomes easier (including microdata). Diversification of published statistics.
5. Development of mutual understanding between national statistical agencies and administrative bodies collecting data on migration and related events
Positive trends of the last decade
Agencies responsible for populaiton registration, migration and citizenship
National statistical
agency
Border service
Ministry of education
MFA
Foreign students: enrollment, stock and graduates
Visa statistics, Citizenship Data on registrations in consulates
Data on entries and exits by countries, purposes and types of transport
Censuses
•Work permits •Asylum•Residence permits•Citizenship •Administrative practices ets.
Data on labour migration
Data for statistics of flows
Data on refugees and IDPs
“Current” registration of flows
Data on repatriants
Labour force and living standards surveys
Producers of migration (and related events) data at the national level in the CIS states
4
Other agencies
Data that were the subject of analysis characterized
1) permanent-type migration –• censuses of the recent round • annual (current) statistics of flows 2) labour migration (mainly temporary),
Including available data of different surveys, censuses , administrative data of migration authorities and expert estimates
Personal experience: an attempt to analyze a general image of migration process in the CIS region
Dramatic decrease of population born in the European part of the former USSR, mainly these people represent “old” generations.
Considerable increase of population born in the Central Asian region (mainly – of working ages)
“Foreign born” population step by step started to represent real international migration (not “statistical” foreign born that was counted right after the breakdown of the USSR).
People born in a certain country and having its citizenship differ by country and comparing to each other.
Some examples:
What did the recent censuses show?
Dynamics of stocks of foreign born in Russia by country of birth (times)
Armen
ia
Azerb
aija
n
Belar
us
Georg
ia
Kazak
hsta
n
Kyrgy
zsta
n
Mol
dova
Tajik
ista
n
Turk
men
ista
n
Ukrai
ne
Uzbek
ista
n
Born
in C
IS cou
ntrie
s
Born
in o
ther
cou
ntrie
s 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1.10.9 0.8
0.7
1.0
1.21.0
1.21.0
0.8
1.2
0.9 1.0
Russia
2010 to 2002 2002 to 19892010 to 1989
Dynamics of stocks of foreign born in Kazakhstan by country of birth (times)
Armen
ia
Azerb
aija
n
Belar
us
Georg
ia
Kyrgy
zsta
n
Moldo
va
Russia
Tajik
istan
Turk
men
istan
Ukrai
ne
Uzbek
istan
Born
in C
IS cou
ntrie
s
Born
in o
ther
cou
ntrie
s 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0.8 0.8
0.5 0.6
1.1
0.6 0.6
0.9
1.7
0.6
2.8
0.8
1.2 1999 to 19892009 to 1999 2009 to 1989
Dynamics of foreign population in Kazakhstan and Russia between the censuses of 2000 and 2010 rounds (times)
Total resident population
RK citizens
Foreign population total
CIS and Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Russia
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Ukraine
Uzbekistan
Other
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1.07
1.07
1.19
1.6
1.59
2.64
2.44
1.38
5.53
1.11
0.88
2.85
6.96
1.37
8.7
0.5
Kazakhstan 2009/1999
Total popualtion
RF citizens
Foreigners total
CIS
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Belarus
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Ukraine
Other
Stateless
Not identified
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
0.98
0.97
0.67
0.64
0.44
0.43
0.69
0.23
0.40
1.55
0.66
1.36
0.88
1.85
0.41
0.81
0.41
3.26
Russia 2010/2002
BelarusBorn Citizens
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70+
100 50 0 50 100 150
0.6
1.2
2.2
6.6
12.5
15.6
17.1
19.9
23.9
31.1
37.4
36.3
35.3
21.1
59.0
0.6
1.2
2.1
6.0
11.7
14.8
16.1
18.4
24.5
34.4
43.2
45.5
51.3
34.9
116.7
females Be-larus
males Be-larus
0 - 4
5 – 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70+
3 2 1 0 1 2
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.2
2.1
2.7
2.8
2.3
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.8
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
1.0Belarus females
Belarus males
TajikistanBorn Citizens
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70+
50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
2.2
4.0
6.0
16.3
36.5
37.8
36.7
34.6
27.7
22.6
17.0
12.3
7.5
2.9
3.9
2.0
3.6
4.9
9.6
19.5
20.6
21.5
21.4
16.9
16.3
14.4
13.7
9.0
4.0
7.0
males Tajikistanfemales Tajikistan
0 - 4
5 – 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70+
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4
1.3
1.3
1.3
5.4
13.7
13.0
11.0
8.6
6.2
3.7
2.0
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.1
1.1
1.1
0.9
1.3
2.7
2.9
2.8
2.3
1.6
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1Tajikistan females
Tajikistan males
TurkeyBorn Citizens
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70+
1500.0 1000.0 500.0 0.0 500.0
174.0
170.0
144.0
115.0
585.0
1,109.0
1,228.0
1,241.0
1,096.0
786.0
480.0
262.0
174.0
100.0
168.0
190
140
151
52
100
86
66
68
66
140
248
227
165
122
271
females Turkey
males Turkey
0 - 4
5 – 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70+
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200
53.0
29.0
25.0
79.0
477.0
952.0
975.0
882.0
748.0
499.0
196.0
61.0
29.0
6.0
6.0
36
26
19
22
59
65
47
42
26
21
9
5
3
3
0
Turkey females
Turkey males
CIS area is not a homogeneous migration space Migration is very selective Millions of people residing in CIS are involved into migrations and the
biggest part of movements takes place within the region: about 92% of immigrants come from / and 75% of emigrants go to another CIS country,
Russia is the main destination country both for long-term and temporary migrants from the other CIS states. In 2000-2011 it has positive net-migration with all CIS countries (except Belarus).
After the breakdown of the USSR migration ties between some of the former soviet republics (excluding Russia) weakened dramatically ( for example, Ukraine – Central Asia, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan-Tajikistan, Turkmenistan - all the other countries);
What did analysis of flows data show?
Prevalence of movement within the area (permanent type migration) 2000-2010 % of immigrants from / emigrants to the other CIS state
Moldova
Armenia
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Russian Federation
Azerbaijan
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
0% 10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
52.2
67.9
83.0
86.3
86.6
95.1
96.0
97.3
97.8
99.4
47.8
32.1
17.0
13.7
13.4
4.9
4.0
2.7
2.2
0.6
Total share of immigrants from CIS From countries outside CIS
Russian Federation
Ukraine
Belarus
Moldova
Kazakhstan
Armenia
Uzbekistan
Kyrgyzstan
Azerbaijan
Tajikistan
54.7
61.5
65.4
70.4
77.0
77.6
90.3
95.7
96.8
99.7
45.3
38.5
34.6
29.6
23.0
22.4
9.7
4.3
3.2
0.3
Total share of emigrants to CIS To the countries outside CIS
Permanent Net Migration in CIS countries, 2000-2010 (in 1000’s)
Data of the national statistical office of :
ARM AZ BEL KAZ KYRG MOLD RUS TAJ TURK UKR UZB
ARM 0 0 2 1 0 0 168 0 0 11 0
AZER -4 0 3 2 0 0 111 0 -1 9 0
BEL -1 -1 0 -11 -1 -1 -4 -1 0 -9 -2
GEOR 1 2 2 1 0 0 83 0 0 9 0
KAZ -1 -1 15 0 -34 0 423 -4 -28 16 -217
KYRGYS 0 0 1 19 0 0 171 -7 0 3 -1
MOLD 0 0 3 0 0 0 100 0 0 30 0
RUS -56 -18 39 -395 -290 -26 0 -73 -56 -52 -290
TAJ 0 0 1 3 4 0 119 0 0 2 4
TURK 0 1 2 32 0 0 46 0 0 3 0
UKR -3 -1 20 -4 -2 -20 263 -2 -1 0 -17
UZB 0 1 4 274 -1 0 343 -8 -1 30 0
CIS -64 -16 92 -77 -324 -46 1821 -94 -88 51 -523
TOTAL -76 -16 77 -173 -340 -55 1566 -94 -90 -75 -584
Implementation of “mirror” statistics sometimes is not successful without knowledge of methodology changes and practices of data collection
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Эмиграция из Азербайджана в РФ (АзСтат ) Left from Azerbaijan to the RF (Azstat)
Иммиграция из Азербайджана в РФ (Росстат) Arrived from Azerbaijan to RF (Rosstat)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Эмиграция из РФ в Азербайджан (Росстат) Left from the RF to Azerbaijan (Rosstat)
Иммиграция из РФ в Азербайджан (Азстат) Arrived from the RF to Azerbaijan (Azstat)
Discrepancies in data on flows lead to a statistical phenomenon – pairs of countries have positive net migration in mutual migration exchange (Ukraine, Belarus and Russia)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Net migration RB data
Net migration RF data
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
Net migration RB data
Net migration Ukr. data
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Net migration Ukr. data Net migration RF data
Temporary labour migration in the CIS area: Main characteristics
“Asymmetry” of roles: mainly sending or mainly receiving states
Major part of workers move to the RF and partially – to Kazakhstan , migrants from the European countries of the CIS much more often chose the countries of the other part of the world.
Most part of migrants are undocumented
Temporary forms are prevailing Migrant-workers in Russia and Belarus
mainly come from the CIS area, while the other countries invite skilled workers from the other part of the world. (CIS: RF > 90%, RB – 40%, Ukraine – 30%, RT and AzR – about 10%)
CIS nationals are rare among highly skilled workers (in the RF- 7-8% )
Временная трудовая миграция: разброс оценок и малая сопоставимость данных стран-партнеров
Volume Countries of Destinations
Sources:
Armenia 80 th. Russia (95%) Migration Service, 2010
Azerbaijan More 100 th
Russia (more 80%) Estimation based on Russian data, 2011
Kyrgyzstan 250-300 th Russia (80-85%), Kazakhstan (15%)
Population Census, 2009
Moldova 300 th. Russia (60%), EU (30%)
Labor Force Survey, 2009-2010
Tajikistan 430 th Russia (95%-98%) Households Survey, 2008
Ukraine 1.5 mln Russia (48,1%), Italy (13.4%), Czech Rep. (11.9%)
Ukrainian External Labor Migration. National survey 2005-2008.
Uzbekistan > 1 mln Russia (60%-70%%) Kazakhstan (25%-30%%)
Estimation based on Russian and Kazakhstan data, 2011
Compilation of data from different sources may show the scale of irregular labour migration
2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
574.0
646.3677.4
736.4 750.1
195.1213.0
171.2134.0
199.6168.8
267.3
Migr. Cards RT (esti-mate 95% of total out-flow)Work permits isseud in RF for RT citizens Patents sold to RT cit-izens
2006 2008 20090.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Work permits issued for KR cit-izens in Russia KR household survey data (s-tock of nationals abroad)
Survey data (Kyrgyzstan) on absent population compared with the Federal Migr. Service of Russia data on issued work permits
Migration cards (Tajikistan) and FMS data on issued work permits
Alternatives to traditional “statistical” data sources (data on residence permits can partly substitute statistics of immigration flows)
Admin. Data on work permits can be the main (if not the only) source of information on labour migration
IT development = growing importance of administrative data
Caution: fluctuations in admin. data should be treated with care. Temporary residence permits issued in Russia (thousand)
Ukraine
Armenia
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
Azerbaijan
Moldova
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
0.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000
201220112010
Rapid increase in numbers for RK and KR are caused by the changes in legislation on citizenship. Before 2011 these migrants could apply for the RF citizenship without any additional status and did not need residence permit
Seems to not realistic so far Even annual statistics of flows shows
considerable discrepancies Solution: comprehensive metadata Competent users An intermediary agency that collects,
harmonizes and publishes data from different states
Is it possible to harmonize definitions and
methodologies in statistics of migration ?
A deadlock or a stimulus for joint efforts? Political decisions are usually based on
data produced by national stat. agency If data are not good or interpreted
incorrectly - decisions are not efficient Since the ties in the CIS area are still rather
close, policy of a country is not indifferent to the neighbours
Conclusion - Вывод – статистика миграции не имеет границ, и должна восприниматься как «своя» , вне зависимости от страны , где произведена
Statistics of flows - use e-format instead of paper carriers Censuses – questions about absent population should not
limit time of absence (up to 5 hears)
Surveys - to conduct sample surveys in the CIS area simultaneously or without considerable time interval, harmonized methodology and questionnaires, to create a joint database
Diversification of data sources, involvement of administrative data related to migration and its consequences
Methodology: revision of recommendation is necessary Coordination of efforts in the region via a respected agency
with international (regional) mandate .
! To treat sources and data as a system, not as separate elements
Concluding remarksWhat can we do?
Благодарю за внимание!
Thank you for your attention!
Распределение мигрантов, зарегистрированных
по месту пребывания , по срокам
International Internal 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
33.5
16.8
19.3
31.3
29.5
14.5
7.6
18.2
7.4
6.8
2.7
12.3
5+4 years 3 years 2 years 1 year 9 months- one year