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I BOPEZOGBYinternational
Date: May 25, 2011
To: Urban Hirschey
From: Cheryl Korn
cheryl. [email protected]
RE : Results from Community Vision poll
Methodology
IBOPEZogby International was commissioned by the Town of Cape Vincent to conduct
a telephone survey of seasonal and year round residents. The survey was conducted from
5/9/11 through 5/12/11.
The target sample is 300 interviews with approximately 32 questions asked. Samples
are randomly drawn from listed telephone directories of CapeVincent NYalong with a client
supplied list of homeowners in CapeVincent. IBOPEZogby International surveys employ
sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within
area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number.
Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR'sapproved methodoloqles! and are
comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling
strateqies.? Weights are applied to ownership type, age and gender to better reflect the
population. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in
sub-groups. The MOEcalculation is for sampling error only.
SAMPLING
The majority of telephone lists for polls and surveys are produced in the IT department
at IBOPEZogby International. Vendor-supplied lists are used for regions with complicated
speclflcatlons, e.g., some Congressional Districts. Customer-supplied lists are used for special
projects like customer satisfaction surveys and organization membership surveys.
ISee COOP4 (p.36) in Standard Definitions: Final Dispositions of Case Codes and Outcome Rates a/Surveys. The
American Association for Public Opinion Research, (revised 2008).
2 Cooperation Tracking Study: April 2003 Update, Jane M. Sheppard and Shelly Haas. The Council for Marketing &Opinion Research (CMOR). Cincinnati, Ohio (2003).
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Telephone lists generated in our IT department are called from a nationally published
set of phone CDs of listed households, ordered by telephone number. Residential (or
business) addresses are selected and then coded by region, where applicable. An appropriate
replicate! is generated from this parent list, applying the replicate algorithm repeatedly with avery large parent list, e.g., all of the U.S.
Acquired lists are tested for duplicates, coded for region, tested for regional coverage,
and ordered by telephone, as needed.
The resulting list is loaded into the CAT! application and the randomize function within
the CAT! software is run to further assure a good mix for the telephone list.
For this particular project, the client provided IBOPEZogby International with about
1,200 property owners. IBOPEZogby International searched for telephone numbers and were
able to procure numbers for about 25% of them. Telephone numbers for all listed telephones
as well as all voter records for CapeVincent were also used.
The phone list generated had 290 property owners with addresses outside of Cape
Vincent, along with about 2,000 phone numbers for Cape Vincent year round.
INTERVIEWING
Interviews are conducted at IBOPEZogby International by professional interviewers
trained on our computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CAT!) computer system. A policy
requiring one supervisor to no more than twelve interviewers is used. The sample
management module of the CATI system gives all prospective respondent households in the
source telephone list the same chance of joining the sample. Regional quotas are employed
to ensure adequate coverage nationwide.
WEIGHTING
Reported frequencies and crosstabs are weighted using the appropriate demographic
profile to provide a sample that best represents the targeted population from which the
sample is drawn. The proportions comprising the demographic profile are compiled from
historical exit poll data, census data, and from IBOPEZogby International survey data.
SAMPLING ERROR
Sampling Error, often referred to as the Margin of Error, is the percentage that survey
results are likely to differ from the actual due to the size of the sample drawn. If a survey
were conducted of all the members of a population, the sampling error would be zero. There
are other sources of possible error in survey research such as sample design error and
measurement error.
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Narrative Summary
1. Do you consider yourself a seasonal or year round resident of Cape Vincent, New York?
Seasonal
Year round
63%
38%
Three out of five (63%) of survey respondents consider themselves seasonal residents
of Cape Vincent, NewYork, while two out of five (38%) consider themselves year round.
2. Generally speaking do you think things in the Cape Vincent area are going in the right
direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
Wrong track 40%
Right direction 38
Not sure 22
Two out of five (40%) think things in the Cape Vincent area are off on the wrong track,
while another two out of five (38%) think things are going in the right direction. More than a
fifth (22%) is not sure.
3. Overall, would you say you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat
unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of Cape Vincent?
Very favorable 48% Favorable 82%
Somewhat favorable 34
Somewhat unfavorable 13 Unfavorable 17Very unfavorable 3
Not sure 1
Four out of five (82%) have a favorable overall opinion of CapeVincent, while about a
fifth (17%) have an unfavorable opinion of it.
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4-5. Please tell me how you would rate the tollowinq=Exceltent; Good, Fair, or Poor.
The performanceorthe economy
In CapeVincent*Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
**Differences in totals reflect rounding.
66
Four out of five (79%) give a positive rating to the quality of life in CapeVincent, while
a fifth (19%) gives a negative rating to it.
Two out of three (66%) give a negative rating to the performance of the economy in
CapeVincent, one in four (23%) gives it a positive rating.
6. In your opinion, what are the three most important issues facing Cape Vincent? (Do not
read. Choose up to THREE)
Industrial wind turbine projects 59%
Economic growth and job creation 48
The potential closing of CapeVincent Elementary School 37
Taxes 17
The environment/public green spaces/parks 7Skilled workforce 4
Healthcare 4
Other= 31
Not sure 12
*Other responses: (Number in parenthesis denotes frequency of response) Elected
officials/government ethics (23); Tourism/more attractions (15); Water issues/problems (9);
Education/saving school (7); Fishing/fishery (5); Acceptance of everyone-seasonal and year round (5);
Lack of growth/keep community growing (3); Conditions of the river/pollution in the lake (3); Unrest
and hostility of people because of wind turbines (3); Clean up needed/properties in village not attractive
(3); Sales of homes/lots of real estate available (3); The waterfront (2); Farming and agriculture leaving
the area (2); Put sewers in instead of septic tanks (2)
One each: Infrastructure; Attract more business/economic development to area; Lack of water to
Tibbetts Point; Population decline; Bickering about school and turbines; Loss of revenue from tourists
not coming because of windmills; Wind turbines, in general; Services for senior citizens; Upcoming
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elections; No work-no income-nothing for children to do; Codes enforcement; Water and extending
property; Gas prices for boaters; The lighthouse; Access to the dump
Cannot think of any other issues (2)
Three out of five (59%) name the industrial wind turbine projects as one of the three
most important issues facing CapeVincent, while half (48%) cite economic growth and job
creation. About two-fifths (37%) say the potential closing of CapeVincent Elementary School
is one of the three most important issues Cape Vincent faces, and about a third (31%) name
some other issue as one of the three most important.
7. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the
Industrial Wind Turbine projects being proposed for the Cape Vincent area?
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Somewhat oppose
Strongly opposeNot sure
27%
20
8
33
12
Support 470/0
Oppose 41
Opinions about the Industrial Wind Turbine projects being proposed for the Cape
Vincent area appear to be mixed, with nearly half (47%) of the residents surveyed saying
they support such a project, and two-fifths (41%) saying they oppose it. Twelve percent is
not sure.
8. (Asked of those who support the Industrial Wind Turbine projects.) Why do you
support the wind power project being proposed for the Cape Vincent area?
(Number in parenthesis denotes frequency of response)
Alternative energy source (25)
Good for the economy (25)
Brings in money/revenue (9)
Good for the environment (8)
Could reduce taxes (7)
Renewable source of energy/saves energy (7)
Everyone will benefit from it (6)
Good for the economy and the environment (6)
Might bring down electricity costs (5)
Good for the people (3)
If it makes money, I support (3)
Farms in area need money/work (3)
Put in proper places (3)Makes no difference to me (2)
There is nothing else in Cape Vincent (2)
19%
19
7
6
5
5
4
4
4
2
2
2
21
1
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Will affect the beauty of the St. Lawrenceand wildlife (2) 1
Too large of a project (2) 1
Opposebecauseof no zoning (2) 1
Personally oppose them-but it will be good for the economy (1) 1
I believe in atomic power (1) 1
Do not believe wind turbines should be in tourist areas (1) 1
The way the issue is being handled (1) 1
Unwisechoice of wind company (1) 1
Will have a negative impact on economy (1) 1
Will ruin the beauty of CapeVincent and benefit no one (1) 1
Not efficient and intrusive-no consideration from Board (1) 1
Oppose-but has no issue as long is a good distance from scenic areas (1) 1
Not sure what problems it will pose for environment (1) 1
Will make people leave/move away from area (1) 1
Destruction of total plan of town (1) 1
Do not believe they are necessary (1) 1
Oppose-but will give people in area a break in power (1) 1
Oil companies being unfair-turbines not what they are telling us (1) 1
Taxpayers involved (1) 1
Partly environment and partly we are not going to benefit (1) 1
Are other more important issues-such as keeping the school open (1) 1
Not sure (2) 1*Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
Eleven percent say they oppose the wind power project because they see it as an
eyesore within CapeVincent, while ten percent each say it will only benefit a few or they think
it came about in an unethical way.
10. Do you think that wind turbines located near the River will increase or decrease tourism,or will it have no effect at all?
Decrease 47%
No effect at all 43
Increase 6
Not sure 4
About half (47%) think that wind turbines located near the River will decrease tourism,
while more than two-fifths (43%) think they will have no effect at all on it. Six percent think
that wind turbines located near the Riverwill increase tourism.
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11. Do you think that wind turbines located near the River will increase or decrease land
values, or will it have no effect at all?
Decrease 57%
No effect at all 28
Increase 7
Not sure 8
Three out of five (57%) think that wind turbines located near the River will decrease
land values, three in ten (28%) think they will have no effect at all. Seven percent think that
wind turbines located near the River will increase land value.
12. Should the Town Board impose a moratorium on wind turbines to allow for time to amend
the zoning law to address industrial and private wind turbines?
Yes 59%
No 26
Not sure 15
Three out of five (59%) say the Town Board should impose a moratorium on wind
turbines to allow for time to amend the zoning law to address industrial and private wind
turbines, while one in four (26%) say it should not.
13. How would you rate the job the Town Board has done in assessing the pros and cons of
industrial wind turbines-excellent, good, fair, or poor?
Excellent 3% Positive 220/0
Good 19
Fair 24 Negative 57
Poor 34
Not sure 21
Three out of five (57%) give a negative rating to the job the Town Board has done in
assessing the pros and cons of industrial wind turbines, while a fifth (22%) gives a positive
rating to it.
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14-16. Now, please tell me if you think the following is very important, somewhat important,
not very important or not at all important in Cape Vincent.
*Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
Nearly all think tourism (99%), economic development (97%), and the waterfront and
recreation (97%) is important in CapeVincent.
17. Do you agree or disagree that the waterfront is an important economic draw for Cape
Vincent?
Agree 97%
Disagree 2
Not sure 1
Nearly all (97%) agree that the waterfront is an important economic draw for Cape
Vincent.
18. Wouldyou support or oppose the growth and development of Cape Vincent's waterfront?
Support 86%
Oppose 8
Not sure 6
Nine in ten (86%) support the growth and development of CapeVincent's waterfront,
while 8% oppose such an action.
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19. Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very
unfavorable opinion of the French Festival?
Very favorable
Somewhat favorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Not familiar
Not sure
67%
24
4
1
3
3
Favorable 91%
Unfavorable 4**
**Differences in totals reflect rounding.
Nine in ten (91%) have a favorable opinion of the French Festival; with the large
majority (67%) saying they have a very favorable opinion of it. Four percent have an
unfavorable opinion of the French Festival.
20. Would you consider being a volunteer for the French Festival this July?
Yes
No
Not sure
32*%
63
4*Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding.
Three out of five (63%) would not consider being a volunteer for the French Festival
this July, while a third (32%) would consider it.
21. (Asked of those who are not considering being a volunteer.) Which of the following
make you more likely to consider volunteering for the French Festival? (Choose all that
apply)
Having more information about how to volunteer and what is involved 22%
Knowing I could volunteer my time before the actual event 10
Receiving an incentive for volunteering, such as free tickets to festival events 4
Having the event scheduled on a different weekend 2other= 31
I have no interest in the French Festival 40
Not sure 6
*Other responses: Not interested-poor health/disabled(13); Not interested-too busythesedays(11); Not interested-age/too old (9); Not interested-will beawayfrom CapeVincent (5); Not
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interested-not in CapeVincent longenough/onlythere onweekends(4); Not interested-no longer
wish to volunteer (2); Noneof the above (2); Mustoffer morefor children (2)
One each: Not interested-husband is deployed; Not sureof schedule/plansduring that time; IfIcouldvolunteer for just one day; Wouldvolunteer, if they neededhelp badly; Softball tournament and parade
are great attractions; Donating 1.5 million walleyeto DECfrom the FrenchFestival
Two out of five (40%) say they are not considering being a volunteer for the French
Festival because they have no interest in it, while 22% say having more information about
how to volunteer and what is involved would make them more likely to consider volunteering.
22. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the
proposed closure of the Cape Vincent Elementary School if it saved money, but meant that
students who attended Cape Vincent Elementary would have to be bused to Clayton
Elementary School?
Strongly support 9% Support 220/0
Somewhat support 13
Somewhat oppose 14 Oppose 63
Strongly oppose 49
Not sure 15
Three out of five (63%) oppose the proposed closure of the Cape Vincent Elementary
School if it saved money, but meant that students who attended Cape Vincent Elementary
would have to be bused to Clayton Elementary School. A fifth (22%) supports such an action.
23. (Asked of those who oppose the school closing.) Which of the fol/owing statements
best describes your opinion about how the Cape Vincent Elementary School can be saved
from closure? (Choose only ONE)
Statement A: I would support a local tax increase to keep the school open.
Statement B: I would support attracting more families with children to the Cape
Vincent area to keep the school open.
Statement B 67%
Statement A 15
Neither 15
Not sure 3
Two out of three (67%) report Statement B, "I would support attracting more families
with children to the Cape Vincent area to keep the school open," best describes their opinion
about how the Cape Vincent Elementary School can be saved from closure, while 15% say
Statement A, "I would support a local tax increase to keep the school open" best describestheir opinion. Fifteen percent say neither statement best describes their opinion.
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