-
第8回RIETIハイライトセミナー
消費税引き上げ後の物価・景気 プレゼンテーション資料
渡辺 努 東京大学大学院経済学研究科教授
http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/index.html
2014年7月2日
独立行政法人 経済産業研究所(RIETI)
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渡辺 努
「東大日次物価指数」プロジェクト http://www.cmdlab.co.jp/price_u-tokyo/
https://sites.google.com/site/twatanabelab/
2014年7月2日
-
2
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2519
6001
1962
0119
6401
1966
0119
6801
1970
0119
7201
1974
0119
7601
1978
0119
8001
1982
0119
8401
1986
0119
8801
1990
0119
9201
1994
0119
9601
1998
0120
0001
2002
0120
0401
2006
0120
0801
2010
0120
1201
2014
01
CPI InflationOvernight Call Rate
yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト2
yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト
yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト
-
3
2013 Q3
Q4
2014 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Real GDP Y/Y percent
2.4
2.4
2.8
0.7
1.1
1.4
0.3
1.9
1.9
0.9
CPI Y/Y percent
0.9
1.4
1.5
3.3
(1.5)
3.0
(1.2)
2.8
(1.0)
2.9
(1.1)
1.0
1.0
2.3
(1.1)
Source:Consensus Economics Inc.
Note: Numbers in parentheses indicate the inflation rate without consumption tax increases planned in April 2014 and in Oct 2015.
-
2013
2014
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6
CPI I
nfla
tion
Unemployment rate
1971-1989
1990-1999
2000-2013
2013-2014
Low responsiveness of inflation to unemployment
4
-
5 http://www.cmdlab.co.jp/price_u-tokyo/dailys_e
The current and historical data are downloadable. Free!
• Prices are collected every day from 300 supermarkets sampled from all over Japan.
• The number of products is about 300K.
• Updated every day with a two day lag.
• Covers 17 percent of the official CPI.
• Historical daily data is available over the last 25 years.
-
6
The UTokyo Daily Price Index is a daily version of the Törnqvist index, which is known as one of the superlative price indexes. CPI Manual released by ILO: “Many different kinds of mathematical formulae have been
proposed over the past two centuries. While there may be no single formula that would be preferred in all circumstances, most economists and compilers of CPIs seem to be agreed that, in principle, the index formula should belong to a small class of indices called superlative indices.” (Consumer price index manual: Theory and practice, 2004, p.2)
Price relatives: The daily inflation rate is calculated as the weighted geometric mean of price relatives across products, which are defined as the price ratios between today (t) and some day in the past (t-dt). For example, dt=365.
Weights: The weight for a product is given by the average of the sales shares of the product today and the sales share of the same product on the same day of the previous year.
-
7
Sales price and quantity sold for a particular product at a particular retailer
-
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2011
/2/1
2011
/2/8
2011
/2/1
5
2011
/2/2
2
2011
/3/1
2011
/3/8
2011
/3/1
5
2011
/3/2
2
2011
/3/2
9
2011
/4/5
2011
/4/1
2
2011
/4/1
9
2011
/4/2
6
1 week moving average of daily sales growth [Left]1 week moving average of daily inflation [Right]
Daily inflation increased by 2 percent immediately after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which is accounted for mainly by changes in the frequency of temporary sales rather than changes in regular prices
8
3/11/2011 East Japan Earthquake
-
Daily inflation increased by 2 percent immediately after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which is accounted for mainly by changes in the frequency of temporary sales rather than changes in regular prices
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
3/11/2011 East Japan Earthquake
12/26/2012 Abenomics started
9
-
The rate of inflation has increased from -1.5 percent to zero percent since the start of Abenomics
10
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%20
13/1
/820
13/1
/22
2013
/2/5
2013
/2/1
920
13/3
/520
13/3
/19
2013
/4/2
2013
/4/1
620
13/4
/30
2013
/5/1
420
13/5
/28
2013
/6/1
120
13/6
/25
2013
/7/9
2013
/7/2
320
13/8
/620
13/8
/20
2013
/9/3
2013
/9/1
720
13/1
0/1
2013
/10/
1520
13/1
0/29
2013
/11/
1220
13/1
1/26
2013
/12/
1020
13/1
2/24
2014
/1/7
2014
/1/2
120
14/2
/420
14/2
/18
2014
/3/4
2014
/3/1
820
14/4
/120
14/4
/15
2014
/4/2
920
14/5
/13
2014
/5/2
720
14/6
/10
Daily sales growth [Left]Daily inflation [Right]
-
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
3/11/2011 East Japan Earthquake
12/26/2012 Abenomics started
11
-
QQE had an immediate impact on the exchange rate but not on the daily inflation
12
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2013
/2/1
2013
/2/3
2013
/2/5
2013
/2/7
2013
/2/9
2013
/2/1
120
13/2
/13
2013
/2/1
520
13/2
/17
2013
/2/1
920
13/2
/21
2013
/2/2
320
13/2
/25
2013
/2/2
720
13/3
/120
13/3
/320
13/3
/520
13/3
/720
13/3
/920
13/3
/11
2013
/3/1
320
13/3
/15
2013
/3/1
720
13/3
/19
2013
/3/2
120
13/3
/23
2013
/3/2
520
13/3
/27
2013
/3/2
920
13/3
/31
2013
/4/2
2013
/4/4
2013
/4/6
2013
/4/8
2013
/4/1
020
13/4
/12
2013
/4/1
420
13/4
/16
2013
/4/1
820
13/4
/20
2013
/4/2
220
13/4
/24
2013
/4/2
620
13/4
/28
2013
/4/3
020
13/5
/220
13/5
/420
13/5
/620
13/5
/820
13/5
/10
2013
/5/1
220
13/5
/14
2013
/5/1
620
13/5
/18
2013
/5/2
020
13/5
/22
2013
/5/2
420
13/5
/26
2013
/5/2
820
13/5
/30
Daily inflation [Left scale]Yen/Dollar rate [Right scale]
Quantitative and Qualitative Easing started on April 4, 2013
-
13
Inflation and sales at the time of consumption tax increase
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1-M
ar3-
Mar
5-M
ar7-
Mar
9-M
ar11
-Mar
13-M
ar15
-Mar
17-M
ar19
-Mar
21-M
ar23
-Mar
25-M
ar27
-Mar
29-M
ar31
-Mar
2-Ap
r4-
Apr
6-Ap
r8-
Apr
10-A
pr12
-Apr
14-A
pr16
-Apr
18-A
pr20
-Apr
22-A
pr24
-Apr
26-A
pr28
-Apr
30-A
pr2-
May
4-M
ay6-
May
8-M
ay10
-May
12-M
ay14
-May
16-M
ay18
-May
20-M
ay22
-May
24-M
ay26
-May
28-M
ay30
-May
Daily sales growth 1997: 3% => 5%2014: 5% => 8%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
1-M
ar3-
Mar
5-M
ar7-
Mar
9-M
ar11
-Mar
13-M
ar15
-Mar
17-M
ar19
-Mar
21-M
ar23
-Mar
25-M
ar27
-Mar
29-M
ar31
-Mar
2-Ap
r4-
Apr
6-Ap
r8-
Apr
10-A
pr12
-Apr
14-A
pr16
-Apr
18-A
pr20
-Apr
22-A
pr24
-Apr
26-A
pr28
-Apr
30-A
pr2-
May
4-M
ay6-
May
8-M
ay10
-May
12-M
ay14
-May
16-M
ay18
-May
20-M
ay22
-May
24-M
ay26
-May
28-M
ay30
-May
Daily inflation1997: 3% => 5%2014: 5% => 8%
Excluding consumption tax
yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト13
yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト
yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト
yuhara-sachiyoタイプライターテキスト
-
14
50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
全年齢
~29才
30才~39才
40才~44才
45才~49才
50才~54才
55才~59才
60才~
物価上昇を予想する人の割合
年齢別
-
15
65% 70% 75% 80% 85%
朝日
読売
毎日
日経
産経
地方新聞
スポーツ新聞
日刊ゲンダイ,夕刊フジ
英字新聞
その他
読んでない
物価上昇を予想する人の割合購読紙別
東大物価指数からみた物価動向スライド番号 2Quarterly Consensus Forecast�June 9, 2014Low responsiveness of inflation to unemploymentスライド番号 5How is the UTokyo Daily Price Index calculated? スライド番号 7�Daily inflation increased by 2 percent immediately after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which is accounted for mainly by changes in the frequency of temporary sales rather than changes in regular prices�Daily inflation increased by 2 percent immediately after the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, which is accounted for mainly by changes in the frequency of temporary sales rather than changes in regular prices�The rate of inflation has increased from -1.5 percent to zero percent since the start of Abenomics スライド番号 11�QQE had an immediate impact on the exchange rate but not on the daily inflationスライド番号 13スライド番号 14スライド番号 15