![Page 1: by Alain L. Kornhauser, Ph.D. Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062302/568168a6550346895ddf412b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
by
Alain L. Kornhauser, Ph.D.Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University
Presented at
State Insurance Trade Association 2013 Annual Meeting
Las Vegas, NVOctober 21, 2013
Smart Driving CarsFinancially Attractive to the Insurer and Insuree
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Outline
• Today’s Automobile: Its Mobility & Liabilities• Addressing the Liabilities:
– Moderating Behavior– Mitigating Crashes– Avoiding Crashes through automation/SmartDrivingCars
• What is the vision• Where are we now• How insurance gets us there.
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The Automobile’s 1st 125 Years
(1886-2011)
Benz patent 1886 1st Automobile Benz Circa 2011
Delivered: Enormous Personal Freedom & Mobility
But…Safe Operation Requires Continuous Vigilance
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We Love the Freedom & MobilityBut…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers
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Txtng while driving is out of control…
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TravelTainment Industry Wants Everyone’sAttention
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In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%)
http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/NHTSA_Hendricks2001_UnsafeDrivingActs.pdf
“In 717 out of 723 crashes (99%), a driver behavioral error caused or contributed to the crash”
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Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012
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What is the Cost?• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
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What is the Cost per Driver?• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
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Who Pays?• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
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Who Pays What?• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
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Who Pays What?• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
– AAA:
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How do we Get These Costs Under Control
(and possibly enhance Mobility)?
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Modify Driver Behavior...
Kirkland, WA
Laudable, but… Not Likely to be Effective
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Crash Mitigation (air bags, seat belts, crash worthiness, …)
Good News: Effective in reducing Deaths and Accident Severity
Bad News: Ineffective in reducing Expected Accident Liability &Ineffective in reducing Insurance Rates
Up to today: The Primary Purview of
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Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Level 0 (No automation)The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times. Level 1 (Function-specific automation) The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control Level 2 (Combined function automation) Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in certain driving situations. Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation. Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centeringLevel 3 (Limited self-driving) Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions. Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control. Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google carLevel 4 (Full self-driving automation) Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip. The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may operate while unoccupied. Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system
Smar
tDriv
ingC
ars
& T
ruck
s
Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation
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Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
What the Levels Deliver:
Levels 1-> 3: Increased Safety, Comfort & Convenience
Primarily a Consumer Play
Level 4 (Driverless Opportunity) : Efficiency, Equity Revolutionizes “Mass Transit” by enabling the
provision of mobility without incurring a Labor Cost
Primarily a Fleet Play
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Where Are We with Automation/SmartDrivingCars?
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• GM Futurama @ 1939 World’s Fair
• Zworykin & Flory @ RCA-Sarnoff in Princeton, Late 50s** VK Zworykin & L Flory “Electronic Control of Motor Vehicles on Highways” Proc. 37th Annual Mtg Highway Research Board, 1958
Cruise Control (1958)1945 Invented by Ralph Teetor1958 Chrysler Imperial 1st intorductionGM first offered on the 1959 model year Cadillac.
SmartDrivingCars: Pre-DARPA Challenges
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• Robert E Fenton @ OSU, Early 70s** “A Headway Safety Policy for Automated Highway Operations” R.E. Fenton 1979
SmartDrivingCars: Pre-DARPA Challenges
• Anti-lock Braking Systems (ABS) (1971) (wikipedia)– Chrysler & Bendix Corporation, introduced a computerized, three-channel,
four-sensor all-wheel[6] ABS called "Sure Brake" for its 1971 Imperial.– Ford added an antilock braking system called "Sure-track" to the rear
wheels of Lincoln Continentals as a standard option– General Motors :"Trackmaster" rear-wheel only ABS . An option on
rear-wheel drive Cadillac models and the Oldsmobile Toronado.
• “Wire Sniffing” Cars
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• 1990s– National Automated Highway System Research Program
(NAHSRP) (1994-97)• Goal to develop specifications for a fully automated highway system• Benefits:
– 1. Roadway capacity (led to focus on platooning)– 2. Safety– 3. Robust to Weather, Mobility, Energy, Land Use, Commercial efficiency,
travel time• Focused on automated roadways exclusively serving fully
automated vehicles.• Ref: The National Automated Highway System That Almost Was
SmartDrivingCars: Pre-DARPA Challenges
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Evolution of SmartDrivingCars Concept
2005 20072004
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2005 2007
Link to Presentation Not Easy 20072005Old HouseJump to Google
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Current State of SmartDrivingCars• Much of the public interest has
been promoted by the car. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE
– It is not driverless…• Not yet
– But substantial advancements have focused on:• Development of a self-driving vehicle that can operate
in the existing environment.– Motivated by fact: >90% of road traffic accidents involve
human error. So… remove the human from the loop.– Often… People really do not want to drive.
• Driven over 500,000 miles in self-driving mode
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Expected Implications of “Google Cars”• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research
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• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
Expected Implications of “Google Cars”
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• Using AAA Liability Rates per Fatality and Injury
Expected Implications of “Google Cars”
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$475/yr are “Pass-through” Dollars
$450/yr Discount for Me
$25/yr for Flo or the Gecko or ??? To enhance “Combined Ratio”
Could Discount Finance:
Assume: Emergence of “Price Leaders”
Expected Implications of “Google Cars”
??
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What’s in the Showroom Today?• A number of car companies have been offering active
Forward Collision Avoidance Systems for several years– Volvo– Acura– Mercedes– Subaru– …
http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/47/5/1
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Preliminary Results are Disappointing
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But what has been sold so far doesn’t really work…
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However, It seems that some manufacturers are finally ….
And Serious about using it sell cars
Getting Serious about Collision Avoidance
And Serious about having it work
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Intelligent Drive (active steering )
Volvo Truck Emergency braking
Click images to view videos
S-Class WW Launch May ‘13 MB @ Frankfurt Auto Show Sept ‘13
MB Demo Sept ‘13
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History and Development of DISTRONIC:Price reduction, intelligent packaging and availability cross-carline
MY 2000
Introduce DISTRONICAdaptive Cruise Control
In package for +$3,700Only available on S/CL
DISTRONIC PLUSAutonomous Braking
InterventionIn “Driver Assistance
Package” with Blind Spot Assist/Lane Keeping Assist
$2,950Available Cross-Carline on
almost every model
Enhancements to Driver Asst. Package
•Steering Assist•BAS with Cross-Traffic Assist•PRE-SAFE Brake with Pedestrian Detection•PRE-SAFE PLUS – protection during rear collisions
In “Driver Assistance Package” with Blind Spot
Assist/Lane Keeping Assist +$2,800
Only available on S/E
MY 2014 - FutureMY 2006 - Current
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Near Term Opportunities
DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research
$475 are Pass-through Dollars
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$475/yr are “Pass-through” Dollars
$450/yr Discount for Me
$25/yr for Flo or the Gecko or ??? To enhance “Combined Ratio”
Could Discount Finance:
Assume: Emergence of “Price Leaders”
Expected Implications of “Google Cars”
??
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May well Deliver 2/3rds the safety of Google Car
$300/yr to Mercedes
$20/yr for Flo or the Gecko
Could “Pass-through” FinanceMercedes Intelligent Drive??
(Available in ‘14 S-Class)
$475 Pass-through becomes: $320
Therefore: I get Intelligent Drive for Free (thank you Google) !! Plus: • Prob. of my car killing me is reduced factor: 2/3*.81= 0.54 (half)• Prob. of my car injuring me is reduced factor: 2/3*.65= 0.44• I “Save” my expected “deductible self-insurance”: 2/3*$247 = $165/yr• I have more Comfort• I have more Convenience• I have “Anxiety” reliefWhat a great Business Case! I’m a Buyer!
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With Mercedes as the Market Leader offering “Level 2-” SmartDriving Technology at an incremental price tag that can be absorbed by a “Price Leading” Insurance Company, should lead to:
• Viral adoption by the car buying public
• “Moore’s Law type of price/performance improvement
• Market-driven Transition to “Level 2” and “Level 3” at same or even lower price structure
• Adoption and enhancement rates that are comparable to that enjoyed by airbags may be likely
Expected Implications…
• Other automakers will be enticed to follow (race seems to have already started)