Download - Business Issues To 2020
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Business Issues to 2020
16 February 2010
Phillip AllenResearch Manager
Australian Business Foundation
researcher activist futurist thought leader intelligence sourceresearcher activist futurist thought leader intelligence source
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• Introduction
• Reflecting on the past and future
• Future Revisited - Four Alternative Scenarios
• Snapshot towards 2020
Discuss the concepts as we step through them
Agenda
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• Research Manager Australian Business Foundation
• Past: Analyst at IDC
• PhD Student University of New South Wales
• Masters eCommerce - Deakin University
• Economics Degree - University of Newcastle
Introduction
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www.abfoundation.com.auw.au
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The Nucleon…
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Alternative Futures: Scenarios for Business in Australia to 2015• Published September 1999
• Four pictures of the future
The future arrived quickly
The Future Revisited• Published July 2009
• How our picture of the future was unfolding and refresh them for the next decade.
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Four Alternative Scenarios
Brave Old World Green is Gold
First Global Nation Sound the Retreat
Globalisation trends continues and Australia rides the wave
Backlash and decay of globalisation with a resurgence of protectionism
Resting on our laurels, resistance to change and lost opportunities
Recognised the impact of environment and of sustainable business practice
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Snapshot to 2020 – drivers of change
• Energy and Resources Conscious 21st Century
• Changing Global Economic Geography
• Patterns of Work and Demand for Skilled People
• Unleashing Innovation as a Prescription for Prosperity
• An Outward-looking Australia
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Energy and Resources Conscious 21st Century
• Environmental agenda is on the mainstream agenda
• Tough decisions & new trade-offs
• There are also opportunities
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Changing Global Economic Geography
• Decoupling of the USA from the rest of the world
• However, USA still remains the primary engine of global growth, it is unwise to write off the USA
• Will China get older and more polluted before it becomes wealthy?
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Patterns of Work and Demand for Skilled People
• How we work and who participates has structurally changed
• Urgent need for Australia to become a higher-skilled, more knowledge-intensive producer in response to global pressures
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Unleashing Innovation for Prosperity
• Active ingredient is using knowledge to do something new and valuable for customers and communities
• Australia facing a ‘prosperity paradox’
• Opportunities to innovate by problem solving
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An Outward-looking Australia
• Thinking big and delivering transformation in key areas that we share with the global community
• To advance our interests at home we must increasingly be engaged with other nations
• ‘Splendid Isolation’ is not feasible
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Navigating between Inaction and Hype
Can we envisage and deliver transformation for a big Australia?
• Economy, infrastructure, our environment, farmers, health care, indigenous Australia, the arts, national security, and strengthening our communities and ensure nobody is left out of Australia’s future
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Business Issues to 2020
The Western Sydney IT Cluster – 16 February 2010
Phillip AllenResearch ManagerAustralian Business Foundation