Download - Bookkeeping model
BookkeepingModel
R.A.HoughtonWoodsHoleResearchCenter
August2016
Overview• Thebookkeepingmodel
– FullcarbonaccounEng– Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts
• Inputs– Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes
• Outputs– Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes
• Examples– Global,1850-2015– Mexico,1850-2015
• ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs
ResponseCurves(onehectare)
Living Biomass
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Years
MgC/
ha
Wood Products
-100102030405060
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Years
MgC
Slash
-20020406080100120
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Yeas
MgC/
ha
Soil Carbon
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Years
MgC/
ha
Annual net flux
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Years
MgC/
ha
Total Carbon
0
100
200
300
400
500
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Years
MgC/
ha
Input-4pools
Outputfor1ha
Globalresultsforapproximately1990(PgCandPgC/yr)
Overview• Thebookkeepingmodel
– FullcarbonaccounEng– Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts
• Inputs– Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes
• Outputs– Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes
• Examples– Global,1850-2015– Mexico,1850-2015
• ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs
Changesinlanduse
ChangesinareaCroplands(clearingandabandonment)PasturesShi[ingculEvaEon
Changesincarbonstocks(C/ha)withinforestsWoodharvest&recoveryFiremanagement
Emphasis on forests
Whenahectareisclearedforcroplandsorpasture…
Whattypeofecosystemiscleared?Whatisthebiomassofthesitecleared?
Whathappenstothebiomass?Le[onsitealiveLe[onsitedead What’sthedecayrate?Removedfromthesite.Burned
Whathappenstothesoilcarbon?WithculEvaEon,25-30%ofcarbonintopmeterislost.
Whenahectareaforestisharvested…
Whattypeofforestisharvested?Whatwasitsbiomass?
Whathappenstothebiomass?Le[onsitealive(Whatrateofrecovery?)Le[onsitedead(slash)Removedfromthesite(removals/ha)Burned
Whathappenstothesoilcarbon?Whathappenstotheharvestedmaterial?
Fuelwoodorcharcoal(1.0/yr)Pulpandpaperproducts(0.1/yr)Timber,lumber,etc.(0.01/yr)
Overview• Thebookkeepingmodel
– FullcarbonaccounEng– Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts
• Inputs– Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes
• Outputs– Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes
• Examples– Global,1850-2015– Mexico,1850-2015
• ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs
Overview• Thebookkeepingmodel
– Directanthropogeniceffects– FullcarbonaccounEng– Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts
• Inputs– Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes
• Outputs– Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes
• Examples– Global,1850-2015– Mexico,1850-2015
• ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs
Carbonsourcesandsinksonlandresultfromtwoprocesses
1.Directanthropogeniceffects(management)
– Croplands,pasturelands– Forestry
ManagementorChangesinLandUse
Carbonsourcesandsinksonlandresultfromtwoprocesses
1.Directhumaneffects(management)– Croplands,pasturelands– Forestry
2.Indirectandnaturaleffects– Environmentallyinducedchangesincarbonstorage
“deforestation” tropics
extra-tropics 1.5 BMT/yr
2000-2006
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
deforestation
fossil fuel emissions
7.6
1.5
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
“SINKS”
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
4.1
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
atmospheric CO2
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
ocean
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.2
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
2000-2006
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
ocean
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.2
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
2000-2006
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
What’s this?
atmospheric CO2
ocean
Unmanaged land
fossil fuel emissions
Land use
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.2 2.8
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
atmospheric CO2
ocean
fossil fuel emissions
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.2 2.8
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
management
natural effects (land)
atmospheric CO2
ocean
fossil fuel emissions
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.2 2.8
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux (B
MT C
y-1)
Sink
So
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
management
natural effects (land)
TheResidualterrestrialsink
TheBookkeepingModeldealswith
directanthropogeniceffects(management)
Overview• Thebookkeepingmodel
– FullcarbonaccounEng– Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts
• Inputs– Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes
• Outputs– Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes
• Examples– Global,1850-2015– Mexico,1850-2015
• ThetransiEontosatellite-basedinputs
BookkeepingModel:Mexico
RAHoughtonAANassikas
INPUTS
MODISIGBP
Forest=redCrop=orangePasture=greenOther=blue
Forest Crop Pasture Other
1992 -0.19 0.42 0.01 -0.24
ChangesinAreatoChangesinLand-use
ê êí î
Foresttocrop
Foresttopasture
Foresttoother
Othertocrop
Othertopasture
Croptopasture
1992 0.19 0 0 0.23 0.01 0
Forest Crop Pasture Other
2002 -0.16 0.11 -0.06 0.11
ChangesinAreatoChangesinLand-use
ê êí î
Foresttocrop
Foresttopasture
Foresttoother
Othertocrop
Othertopasture
Croptopasture
2002 0.11 0 0.05 0 -0.06 0
OUTPUTS
Overview• Thebookkeepingmodel
– FullcarbonaccounEng– Living&deadbiomass,soilcarbon,woodproducts
• Inputs– Areas,changesinarea,carbondensiEes
• Outputs– Netandgrossfluxesofcarbon,ageclassesandcarbondensiEes
• Examples– Global,1850-2015– Mexico,1850-2015
• ThetransiGontosatellite-basedinputs
Howwillthebookkeepingmodelusedatafromsatellites?
Withsatellitedata…Whichecosystemsaredisturbed(orrecovering)?
What’stheabovegroundbiomass?Howdoesthebiomassdensitychange?Whathappensbelowground?Whathappenstowoodremovedfromtheforest?Whatcausedthechange?[AgribuEon]
Landuse(anthropogenic)?Whichones?Indirecteffectsornaturaldisturbance?Managedland?
Other….